2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[lfromnj]

ME-2* Trump+6.6
NE-2* Biden +6.6

This is such a sign of the current political landscape.

In 2016, the gap between these districts (on a Pres. level) was about 8%, with ME-2 voting to the right of NE-2 after voting to the left of it for nearly every cycle. This cycle we may have a difference of 13%, which is a remarkable shift compared to 2012, 2008, 2004, etc.

I suspect that this divergence will diminish markedly for 2022, as the state legislatures (definitely, ME as it is D; less sure about NE as it is unicameral and technically nonpartisan) will do whatever needed to move majority party support into these congressional districts.

Maine requires 2/3 IIRC

[lfromnj]

So... Utah. Biden’s now up to nearly 38% with 93% reporting, and seems like almost all that’s left is Salt Lake City. Still a chance he gets to 40, I’d think.

Late ballots have been trending R in Utah. Probably around the same.

[lfromnj]

Trump likely did not gain among Muslims considering Dearborn swung 6-7 points left.

[lfromnj]

With Dems winning growing Arizona, Colorado, and Oregon, and Republicans winning declining Ohio, West Virginia, and Alabama, reapportionment should only move 3-5 electoral votes into the R column if no states flip.

AZ is still a swing state.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/we_want_gore/status/1327344097561108481

College Woke whites are fine with riots, non woke whites aren't(lower vs central bucks)

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/we_want_gore/status/1327344097561108481
College Woke whites are fine with riots, non woke whites aren't(lower vs central bucks)

Tough conclusion to make as there was no pro-riot candidate running.

Just making a bit of a joke , but yeah I think rioting unironically helps D's in college areas  but not in non college industrial areas.

Most working class suburbs/large towns this year still shifted a bit left overall like Macomb County, but some areas like here and Kenosha did shift right.

Anyway PA really won't become like NOVA when its really just 2 Chester and Montgomery that are zooming at the pace of NOVA,Delaware and Bucks have the counter trends near the river.

[lfromnj]

I would note regarding Nevada that it is one of the more Hispanic states in the country and so any swing against Trump among whites in Nevada could have been offset by gains among Hispanics in a way that was not possible in whiter states.

Also its quite working class even among the whites so no major D swings.

[lfromnj]

Yeah when you look at the map and the PV margin and compare to 2016 it certainly feels like Biden had a pretty solid victory here. But when you actually look at the math (and yes, the math is what matters here) and look at the margins, he won it by the skin of his teeth.

ermm i disagree. it wasnt a blowout but he certainly won by more than trump did

The tipping point state is a touch to the right of the 2016 tipping point state(WI) so he did not win by more than Trump did in 2016 both of which were pretty narrow victories.

[lfromnj]

Based on the combined vote margins in the deciding states (WI+GA+AZ), this was a closer election than 2016 (PA+WI+MI)!

This framing is not exactly accurate. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were the deciding states here because Biden crossed 270 with them before Arizona and Georgia were called. When you add up those three you get a margin of over 234,000 votes and that is really what decided this election.

That just isn't correct. If Biden had lost 20,000 votes in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan would have just pushed Biden over 270 before Arizona flipped to Trump and Georgia stayed Trump, pushing him back above 270. It doesn't matter what order the states are called in lol--all that matters is the eventual electoral college outcome. And a world where WI, AZ, and GA go Trump is a world where Trump wins. Thus, WI+AZ+GA is the Biden margin of victory.

You're moving the goal posts. All Biden needed was Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and he flipped them.. Regardless of how you play with the math, Biden clearly won this election by more than Trump did in 2016.

That's not how it works...

Are you familiar with the concept of a tipping point?

Let me put it like this. Biden won the states that put Trump over the top in 2016 by more than Trump won them by in 2016. Some people seem to be trying to say that Arizona and Georgia saved Biden when that simply isn't true. Biden would have won without both of them. Just because they are the tipping point does not mean that they saved Biden.

The state that put Trump over the top in 2016 was Wisconsin he didn't need PA or MI. The current state that has put Biden over the top is Wisconsin which he is winning by about the same margin as Trump won in 2016.

Objectively speaking by the tipping point state this election was more or less as close as 2016.

[lfromnj]

NY seems unlikely to only be at 22.4%, exactly what the 2016 result was, considering the major swings upstate. Did NYC really swing *that* much rightwards to cancel that out?

If so, was this just another thing seen in all cities across the U.S.? have to imagine it had majorly to do with A) no canvassing by Dems and B) colleges being out

NYC has ethnic groups which swung modestly to Trump—Orthodox and Hasidic Jews, Puerto Ricans, POC immigrants from formerly Communist countries—and we know a lot of affluent college-educated voters have fled the city because of COVID.

I will never understand how Cubans in Hoboken and Dominicans in the Bronx can feel this was the year to be concerned about the dangers of socialism coming from the White House.

Yes, I find that argument for the Hispanic swings in urban areas outside of South FL dubious.

I have a sneaking suspicion the Hudson County swing wasn’t mostly due to Cuban Americans in Hoboken. I also don’t think whatever Dominican R swing happened in the Bronx was mostly due to “muh socialism”.

Cuban-Americans in NJ aren't nearly as concerned about socialism as the Cubans in Florida. In fact, New Jersey Cubans heavily lean towards the Democrats.

Also, I'll wait until the absentee results come in for the Bronx. Also, most Dominicans in the Bronx definitely don't care about "socialism" lol.

That's what he is saying. He is then asking why did these groups still swing R?

[lfromnj]

Also the UES is WASP rich people but the UWS is more Jewish IIRC so there may have been a slight Jewish swing as AD 67 did swing a bit R.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1350619147898679296

You can even see sub racial divides. The extreme south of dallas county is actually upper middle class educated black suburbs, so you can see them swing blue, while the red area above them are poorer less educated black inner city urban areas.

Well its also the fact those suburbs are still white flighting.