WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[lfromnj]

Lmao did he really call Rosenbaum Jojo.

Imagine trying to glorify Joseph Rosenbaum of all people!

[lfromnj]

Well, I highly doubt he'll get 68% in Waukesha, 65% in Ozaukee or 26% in Dane like he did in 2016. But he probably will do much better in rural areas.

Trump got 23% in Dane. A 5 point win or so by uniform swing gets Johnson to 26. I do agree those WOW #s will be improbable.

[lfromnj]

I could honestly see Johnson winning by double digits.

Not going to happen in a state with a fairly solid Democratic floor. Best case scenario would be a slightly larger win than his 2010 performance, though that's simply because I see a fairly small range of possibilities here (anything outside of a 3-6 point win for Johnson would be pretty surprising.)

What exactly is that floor ? Scott walker won by 6 to 7 in his 3 wins albeit with crushing margins from WOW.  Is it really that hard to see Wisconsin rurals say vote like Michigan rurals if Barnes fizzles out and the race becomes semi uncontested ?

[lfromnj]

I could honestly see Johnson winning by double digits.

Not going to happen in a state with a fairly solid Democratic floor. Best case scenario would be a slightly larger win than his 2010 performance, though that's simply because I see a fairly small range of possibilities here (anything outside of a 3-6 point win for Johnson would be pretty surprising.)

What exactly is that floor ? Scott walker won by 6 to 7 in his 3 wins albeit with crushing margins from WOW.  Is it really that hard to see Wisconsin rurals say vote like Michigan rurals if Barnes fizzles out?

I fully expect Johnson to improve throughout rural Wisconsin, but he's definitely going to face some drop-off from his 2016 numbers in WOW, and will probably do a bit worse in Dane/Milwaukee as well. Unless turnout is anemic in both Madison and Milwaukee, it's hard to envision a double digit win.

Feingold actually did pretty decent in Dane, I bet he keeps his Dane margin from 2016. Outer Dane county doesn't have a great Dem floor. I'm not saying he wins by double but Its a pretty realistic outcome .

[lfromnj]

I think the trigger law total abortion ban in WI will make this race a lot more interesting than it was going to be. 

I’d imagine it mostly matters to the governors race and state legislative races due to them actually dictating abortion law in Wisconsin, and it will probably have little to no impact on the actual statewide result.

It's sad how geography and a light gerrymander basically lock Rs in the legislature for a decade with shots at supermajorities. Sorta like the inverse of Nevada where geography makes it nearly impossible for Rs to win the legistlature even though Dems gerrymander is pretty tame.

If Dems win the Sup. Ct race next April (which with this abortion law on the books they will), the state legislative maps are toast and we may even get a 4-4 congressional map. If Evers wins this November, you wonder if he and the legislature will just cut a deal to put abortion as a ballot referendum.

LOL the Supreme Court race is in no ways safe for dems

Maybe not safe, but the dems absolutely curb stomped the republicans in the last supreme court election (where people stood in lines for hours to vote in the early days of the coronavirus no less), and Roe being overturned is in no way, shape or form going to help the republicans in the next one.

They curb stomped due to the fact that the election was held concurrent to the 2020 Democratic presidential primary.

[lfromnj]

I think the trigger law total abortion ban in WI will make this race a lot more interesting than it was going to be. 

I’d imagine it mostly matters to the governors race and state legislative races due to them actually dictating abortion law in Wisconsin, and it will probably have little to no impact on the actual statewide result.

It's sad how geography and a light gerrymander basically lock Rs in the legislature for a decade with shots at supermajorities. Sorta like the inverse of Nevada where geography makes it nearly impossible for Rs to win the legistlature even though Dems gerrymander is pretty tame.

If Dems win the Sup. Ct race next April (which with this abortion law on the books they will), the state legislative maps are toast and we may even get a 4-4 congressional map. If Evers wins this November, you wonder if he and the legislature will just cut a deal to put abortion as a ballot referendum.

LOL the Supreme Court race is in no ways safe for dems

Maybe not safe, but the dems absolutely curb stomped the republicans in the last supreme court election (where people stood in lines for hours to vote in the early days of the coronavirus no less), and Roe being overturned is in no way, shape or form going to help the republicans in the next one.

They curb stomped due to the fact that the election was held concurrent to the 2020 Democratic presidential primary.

How would it have likely gone if both primaries were concurrent on the same day?

I mean the R primary existed it was just all but uncontested.