Oregon 4th district will flip R

[lfromnj]

It drops Corvallis but picks Ashland which is just as liberal if OR ds decide to keep the map reasonable. Net effect is basically 0 there and it still remains a narrow Clinton district. He still has a challenge ahead of him in a Trump midterm. The New seat should open up in the mid Willamette valley with Corvallis/salem etc and also be pretty close to a swing seat and he isn't from there anyway. His best was the now cancelled redistricting commission getting on ballot and possibly pushing the district to Trump +5 or so.

[lfromnj]

It drops Corvallis but picks Ashland which is just as liberal if OR ds decide to keep the map reasonable. Net effect is basically 0 there and it still remains a narrow Clinton district. He still has a challenge ahead of him in a Trump midterm. The New seat should open up in the mid Willamette valley with Corvallis/salem etc and also be pretty close to a swing seat and he isn't from there anyway. His best was the now cancelled redistricting commission getting on ballot and possibly pushing the district to Trump +5 or so.

Again we are doing redistricting commissions nationwide when Biden gets in. If we have to pack the court to get this passed we will. We won't be able to gerrymander in IL, MD, MN etc but Republicans won't be able to gerrymander in GA, FL, TX, OH etc

Even with a commission its still going to be Clinton +1 as long as the commission is slightly D leaning which I expect it to be as either its federally created the commision which means the Democratic trifecta has initial influence or its state created which means Oregon Ds have influence. Again keeping it Clinton +1 is still logical, reasonably compact and not an extreme gerrymander just pointing out whats going to happen.

[lfromnj]

DeFazio will underperform but he'll probably win in the end. Since OR is likely to gain a seat after the 2020 census, which is likely to be a Republican one, it's likely his district will be shored up in redistricting.

Democrats would be idiots to not give this district Bend (which is wasted in OR-02) and then give some of its more Republican territory to OR-02.

A court could strike down that split of the Cascades(not sure how D hackish the court is) and the GOP will certainly quorum bust that.
Democrats would be idiots to not give this district Bend (which is wasted in OR-02) and then give some of its more Republican territory to OR-02.

[lfromnj]

DeFazio will underperform but he'll probably win in the end. Since OR is likely to gain a seat after the 2020 census, which is likely to be a Republican one, it's likely his district will be shored up in redistricting.

A court could strike down that split of the Cascades(not sure how D hackish the court is) and the GOP will certainly quorum bust that.
Democrats would be idiots to not give this district Bend (which is wasted in OR-02) and then give some of its more Republican territory to OR-02.

Ok so then Dems quorum bust Republicans in Georgia and Florida if they try aggressive gerrymanders there.

Ok? They can try although the obstacles in those states are more procedural, in Oregon its part of the state constitution. IIRC the Texas state senate tried doing this , although in the end it failed. However it did work for the Oregon senate and the climate bill. Im guessing quorum busting is generally looked down upon although probably not as much when it comes to redistricting.

[lfromnj]

DeFazio will underperform but he'll probably win in the end. Since OR is likely to gain a seat after the 2020 census, which is likely to be a Republican one, it's likely his district will be shored up in redistricting.

A court could strike down that split of the Cascades(not sure how D hackish the court is) and the GOP will certainly quorum bust that.
Democrats would be idiots to not give this district Bend (which is wasted in OR-02) and then give some of its more Republican territory to OR-02.

Ok so then Dems quorum bust Republicans in Georgia and Florida if they try aggressive gerrymanders there.

Ok? They can try although the obstacles in those states are more procedural, in Oregon its part of the state constitution. IIRC the Texas state senate tried doing this , although in the end it failed. However it did work for the Oregon senate and the climate bill. Im guessing quorum busting is generally looked down upon although probably not as much when it comes to redistricting.

IIRC it failed in Texas b/c the Dems wimped out.  

But yeah I fail to see how this would be a national issue, each state party would need to do what they feel is the most effective to save themselves, in Oregon they would have had to change it constitutionally.

[lfromnj]

Skarlatos is almost certainly joining congress in 2022.

Redistricting will make this a safer district for Dems.

I meant with the new SW Oregon R sink.

You can draw a pretty easy 6-0 out of Oregon, I’m not sure if they’ll be that aggressive or not but we’ll see.

There constitutional limits that make that impossible.  5-1 is definitely doable by unpacking OR-03 to bolster OR-05 and create a new Dem district.  OR-04 can pick up Deschetes county while losing the strongly Republican counties in the southwest to OR-02.

Wouldn't that be a double crossing of the Cascades, which I thought was the thing that wasn't allowed?

Assuming that all of Oregon east of the Cascades will remain in OR-2, if the Dems are going to draw at least semi-'sensible' districts it would probably be better to concede the new district to the GOP. Splitting up their areas of strength in South West Oregon without gerrymandering them into Portland and its suburbs is the kind of thing that may backfire spectacularly. Honestly looking at the numbers a 'mild gerrymander' is probably the worst thing the Oregon Dems could do as such a map may only a bad election away from going 3-3. If I was them I would either aggressively gerrymander (Maryland-style) to get 5-1, or if they don't fancy that give the GOP a SW Oregon seat for a secure 4-2.

You can fairly easily draw a map that’s 5-1 with every district being fairly safe for dems. Just crack up Clackamas County a fair bit and make the new district from like Albany to the Portland suburbs.
 

That map illegally crosses the Cascades, sadly. From my experience, I've found the best way to do a 5-1 is to have a coastal district with tails into Portland and Ashland-Medford, as this allows the 4th to shift north and keep Democratic voters in Corvallis.

The other option is to put ALL of Josephine/Jackson in with the Eastern OR district and move Hood River and The Dalles over into metro Portland.

I don't think they'll be able to do that as Hood River County and Wasco County are East of the Cascades and thus are locked into OR-2.

What they could do, however, is try to make OR-2 more winnable by making it drop Jackson County and replacing it with the Multnomah cities of Gresham and Troutdale. However the district would still lean GOP.

You can also draw an arm into downtown Portland with OR02 and make it barely vote for Clinton

[lfromnj]

Oregon Rs could leave the  state again .

[lfromnj]

Oregon Rs could leave the  state again .

Then Dems could just quorum-bust Georgia.

This only works in Oregon. Dems tried it in Texas in 2005.

They also successfully did it in Oregon in 2001.
If a map doesn't pass legislative goes to the SOS but congressional is done by the courts or atleast thats what I Found from 2001.

[lfromnj]

Oregon Rs could leave the  state again .

Then Dems could just quorum-bust Georgia.

This only works in Oregon. Dems tried it in Texas in 2005.

They also successfully did it in Oregon in 2001.
If a map doesn't pass legislative goes to the SOS but congressional is done by the courts or atleast thats what I Found from 2001.

Dems stupidly gave up in Texas in 2003.  Dems should do this in every state that it’s possible if Republicans do it in Oregon.  Fight fire with fire.

Also all Oregon Supreme Court justices are Dem appointees so they can just draw the House map and the Dem SOS can drew the legislative maps.

The Thing with Oregon is the quorum breaking is literally part of the state constitution there.