2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[lfromnj]

What will Houlahan get from a court map, lfromnj? My guess is around Biden +10 or so

Depends if they keep the tri chop of Berks to keep Chester whole.  I would say they do although not 100% certain.

[lfromnj]

Doesn't federal law literally prohibit that?

[lfromnj]

PA GOP House Leader has filed a challenge against the recently passed house and senate maps, asking the PA Supreme Court to use the 2012 lines for the 2022 election.

lmao, on what basis??

The state house has a pretty strong D bias according to the same tests the PA supreme used to strike down the congressional maps in 2018.  State senate is more mixed, Dems getting that Monroe /Scranton split probably makes up for the GOP getting to split Lancaster. I guess its probably over city split stuff though. I highly doubt that works because I think it does have a bit fewer splits. The partisan unfairness test should work by the court's own logic but they are probably too hackish.

[lfromnj]

PA GOP House Leader has filed a challenge against the recently passed house and senate maps, asking the PA Supreme Court to use the 2012 lines for the 2022 election.

lmao, on what basis??

The state house has a pretty strong D bias according to the same tests the PA supreme used to strike down the congressional maps in 2018.  State senate is more mixed, Dems getting that Monroe /Scranton split probably makes up for the GOP getting to split Lancaster. I guess its probably over city split stuff though. I highly doubt that works because I think it does have a bit fewer splits.

https://gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-report-card/?planId=rec5Vr4cdGc0rt375

Perhaps the most compelling evidence concerning the 2011 Plan derives from
Dr. Chen’s expert testimony. As detailed above, Dr. Chen created two sets of 500
[J-1-2018] - 126
computer-simulated Pennsylvania redistricting plans, the first of which – Simulated Set
1 – employed the traditional redistricting criteria of population equality, compactness,
contiguousness, and political-subdivision integrity – i.e., a simulation of the potential
range of redistricting plans attempting to apply the traditional redistricting criteria. Dr.
Chen’s Simulated Set 1 plans achieved population equality and contiguity; had a range
of Reock Compactness Scores from approximately .31 to .46, which was significantly
more compact than the 2011 Plan’s score of .278; and had a range of Popper-Polsby
Compactness Scores from approximately .29 to .35, which was significantly more
compact than the 2011 Plan’s score of .164. Further, his simulated plans generally split
between 12-14 counties and 40-58 municipalities, in sharp contrast to the 2011 Plan’s
far greater 28 county splits and 68 municipality splits. In other words, all of Dr. Chen’s
Simulated Set 1 plans, which were, again, a simulation of the potential range of
redistricting plans attempting to apply the traditional redistricting criteria, were more
compact and split fewer political subdivisions than the 2011 Plan, establishing that a
process satisfying these traditional criteria would not lead to the 2011 Plan’s adoption.
Thus, Dr. Chen unsurprisingly opined that the 2011 Plan subordinated the goals of
compactness and political-subdivision integrity to other considerations.74
 Dr. Chen’s
testimony in this regard establishes that the 2011 Plan did not primarily consider, much
less endeavor to satisfy, the traditional redistricting criteria.75

The state house legislative maps absolutely did a Democratic gerrymander, see splitting state college or Democrats getting a bunch of Safe seats by splitting Harrisburg.

As you can see in the PGP  basically none of the maps have such an outcome.

[lfromnj]

If the map is so biased toward Democrats why did the GOP vote for it?

The senate leader voted for it because they seemed satisfied with the senate map, keeping that Lancaster split is a pretty big W although Democrats  had other wins like in Scranton.

Also didn't Democrats vote for the 2011 PA gerrymander ? Didn't stop the PASC from striking it down.  Overall the case very much isn't baseless at least going by logic of the court but I remain highly skeptical the map will be struck down.

[lfromnj]

IMO Woof's map is the best.

Every other map is either weird and/or has clear partisan intent.

The Carol Ann map seems like a nice least change of sorts.

Splitting Pittsburgh totally isn't for partisan purposes. Now if you want to speak of partisan fairness or symettry it doesn't even acheive that because in the 2016 election it was 9D 8 R. I think it was also 9d 8r in the 2020 treasurer/auditor races which Rs' won. Really surprised that hasn't been mentioned.

What Tom Wolf did with Pittsburgh is the same thing DeSantis did to Jacksonville.

[lfromnj]

Why would the Court limit itself to the options plaintiffs presented, instead of letting Persily draw his own map like in 2018? That seems like it would be better than picking from a bunch of maps drawn by partisan actors NJ-style.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1494905565620977665

Why have a special master draw a Democratic gerrymander when you have plenty to choose from ? The fact that freshman is even a serious plan is lol.

[lfromnj]

I don't know why they're trying to shore up Cartwright at the expense of Wild though. The former is likely screwed no matter what

National Democrats don't see it that way.

[lfromnj]

The court has 4 pretty hard core Dem partisans so it may not matter, but the court in 2018 in the League of Women's Voters case (the same 4 hard cores provided the votes for that decision 4-3, with one concurrence that thought only truly hideous gerrymanders should be banned), was very hostile to gratuitous county and municipal chops, so I would be surprised if the court goes for such chops, particularly one as noticeable as Pittsburgh, when it can get its proportional map with doing such chops.

Who was the concurring dem?

edit: Justice Baer.

[lfromnj]

Tbf, the Gressman map isn't that bad outside of Pittsburg, but ye that Pitts config is disgusting.

The splitting of Dauphin and the draw of the Bucks seat are pretty awful.

Fair enough they didn't handle Harrisburg area the best, but I think the Bucks County being kept whole rule is overrated. To me, it seems like the 1rst becomes more higher education suburban district while a lot of the Working Class parts closer to Philly are put into the 2nd. What's more of an issue IMO is how long the 4th district is but a lot of maps have the long 4th.

If you are wiling to split Bucks then there is no excuse to how they treated Berks which is to protect Houlahan from any competition whatsoever.

[lfromnj]

Torie, are there 17 districts in that map or 18?

Oh F**K! No matter the map was so easy to draw! I used the existing map and just redrew. Sad! 

Yes see the issue is a pub seat has to be cut but the dems have to take all those icky pub voters.

[lfromnj]

I like Torie's map; if I were on the court I'd def push for smtg like that.

All the maps submitted have at least 1 weird thing about them that I (and much of atlas) struggle to get over, namely how Pittsburg and Harrisburg are handeled.

However, I think that map has 18 districts

Any mao over Harrisburg will be struggled. SCPA is 3 COIs( york/ adams , Harrisburg and Eastern Cumberland and arguably Lebanon county) and lastly Lancaster County but this is only like 2.3 districts worth of population)

All the GOP maps around Pittsburgh are fine but all of them do something funky with Scranton. If they want a red Scranton seat then Wild has to get Monroe County. They shouldn't get to make both a lot more red. 

[lfromnj]

Torie, are there 17 districts in that map or 18?

Oh F**K! No matter the map was so easy to draw! I used the existing map and just redrew. Sad! 

Yes see the issue is a pub seat has to be cut but the dems have to take all those icky pub voters.

Yeah, I see the BS about splitting Pittsburgh, as if a split of 100,000 is the same as a split of 1,000 (if 4 justices buy that, I am sending them to hack hell, which is already way overpopulated with state high court judges), and Harrisburg will need to get more Pub.

Look at the previous page. It seems they will keep Pittsburgh whole but instead attach a lot of icky pub voters to it like all of Westmoreland county.

[lfromnj]

What was the split anyway  by the court.

[lfromnj]

What was the split anyway ?

9-8 Biden, though the Scranton and Harrisburg seats only went narrowly to Trump.

I meant the split for the court vote.

[lfromnj]

Changes from 2020

PA-01: Biden +5.8 to Biden +4.6
PA-02: Biden +41.0 to Biden +42.7
PA-03: Biden +83.2 to Biden +80.9
PA-04: Biden +24.1 to Biden +18.9
PA-05: Biden +31.1 to Biden +32.3
PA-06: Biden +15.0 to Biden +14.8
PA-07: Biden +4.8 to Biden +0.6
PA-08: Trump +4.4 to Trump +2.9
PA-10: Trump +2.9 to Trump +4.1

Good for PA-08 but crappy for PA-07, while Dean is losing a chunk of Dems - where did they go? Are those the ones going to PA-05? Because that district is only 1% more Dem.

PA-01 and PA-10 kinda suck. Little to no chance that Dems can get those back even in a good year at this point with Fitz and now that PA-10 is more GOP and Perry won more than Trump in 2020.

You forgot the most important change, R's lose an entire seat yet 3/4 Dem swing seats get shored up.

[lfromnj]

Changes from 2020

PA-01: Biden +5.8 to Biden +4.6
PA-02: Biden +41.0 to Biden +42.7
PA-03: Biden +83.2 to Biden +80.9
PA-04: Biden +24.1 to Biden +18.9
PA-05: Biden +31.1 to Biden +32.3
PA-06: Biden +15.0 to Biden +14.8
PA-07: Biden +4.8 to Biden +0.6
PA-08: Trump +4.4 to Trump +2.9
PA-10: Trump +2.9 to Trump +4.1

Good for PA-08 but crappy for PA-07, while Dean is losing a chunk of Dems - where did they go? Are those the ones going to PA-05? Because that district is only 1% more Dem.

PA-01 and PA-10 kinda suck. Little to no chance that Dems can get those back even in a good year at this point with Fitz and now that PA-10 is more GOP and Perry won more than Trump in 2020.

You forgot the most important change, R's lose an entire seat yet 3/4 Dem swing seats get shored up.

Right, but the GOP should lose a seat. They have the most population loss and they lost the state in 2020.

That was always agreed upon since the begining of this cycle. The Democratic seats still needed to pick up 300k in population of blood red territory. Considering 3/4 swing seats for Democrats got shored up despite that, that's a swell courtmander they got.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::48bc041f-ff25-42bc-a74d-d90f325dde0e

Look at Palandios map. Democrats gain like 14 points from PA17 moving it from somewhere around Trump +8 to Biden +6. They gain like 10 points for PA06 with the tri chop of Berks to drown it out with Montgomery and Chester. . That's a whole 25 points worth gained in swing districts .

[lfromnj]

Changes from 2020

PA-01: Biden +5.8 to Biden +4.6
PA-02: Biden +41.0 to Biden +42.7
PA-03: Biden +83.2 to Biden +80.9
PA-04: Biden +24.1 to Biden +18.9
PA-05: Biden +31.1 to Biden +32.3
PA-06: Biden +15.0 to Biden +14.8
PA-07: Biden +4.8 to Biden +0.6
PA-08: Trump +4.4 to Trump +2.9
PA-10: Trump +2.9 to Trump +4.1

Good for PA-08 but crappy for PA-07, while Dean is losing a chunk of Dems - where did they go? Are those the ones going to PA-05? Because that district is only 1% more Dem.

PA-01 and PA-10 kinda suck. Little to no chance that Dems can get those back even in a good year at this point with Fitz and now that PA-10 is more GOP and Perry won more than Trump in 2020.

You forgot the most important change, R's lose an entire seat yet 3/4 Dem swing seats get shored up.

Right, but the GOP should lose a seat. They have the most population loss and they lost the state in 2020.

That was always agreed upon since the begining of this cycle. The Democratic seats still needed to pick up 300k in population of blood red territory. Considering 3/4 swing seats for Democrats got shored up despite that, that's a swell courtmander they got.

It's a Biden 9-8 map. That's not a mander of any kind.

Cool, so Democrat's can't complain at all about the AZ map as its 5-4 Biden and the Texas map is merely a mild gerrymander as its 14 D seats on the composite and 24 R seats .

[lfromnj]

Good choice. The only choice that's unfavorable to Dems is the Wild seat, which I get is frustrating, but given the pretty D-friendly choices elsewhere it's hard to complain. Overall, a pretty good COI map in the vein of the Persily one.

The Wild seat has basically nowhere else to go but there of course on a CoI-driven map. Carbon County is part of the Lehigh Valley.
This map is very, very reminiscient of the Persily one. And as you said, there's a lot of Dem-friendly choices on this map too.
Ds are well positioned for 2022 and beyond with this one.

The other option is to put Monroe in PA-07, probably then either removing red areas from outer Lehigh or just keeping PA-07 as it was and cut Monroe. Of course this basically trades Cartwright for a better PA-07 long-term, and that deal may not be acceptable given ones perspective.

Is it possible that the court was influenced by Cartwright's seniority vis a vis Wild?

Don't forget the most important influence I guess about partisan fairness. Giving Wild Monroe means PA17 has to be  a Trump 2016 seat by any measure of partisan fairness. This allows Democrats to sneakily gerrymander up PA17 more while just mixing 2 swing seats to be swingier which doesn't hurt them atleast in the medium run. No one can say where trends will end up for certain but if they continue PA08 would trend R while PA07 is probably one of the most "American districts" with a variety of working class and more upscale areas along with urban areas, suburbs, and rural areas while also including diverse minority areas all the while still being a perfect COI.

[lfromnj]

Changes from 2020

PA-01: Biden +5.8 to Biden +4.6
PA-02: Biden +41.0 to Biden +42.7
PA-03: Biden +83.2 to Biden +80.9
PA-04: Biden +24.1 to Biden +18.9
PA-05: Biden +31.1 to Biden +32.3
PA-06: Biden +15.0 to Biden +14.8
PA-07: Biden +4.8 to Biden +0.6
PA-08: Trump +4.4 to Trump +2.9
PA-10: Trump +2.9 to Trump +4.1

Good for PA-08 but crappy for PA-07, while Dean is losing a chunk of Dems - where did they go? Are those the ones going to PA-05? Because that district is only 1% more Dem.

PA-01 and PA-10 kinda suck. Little to no chance that Dems can get those back even in a good year at this point with Fitz and now that PA-10 is more GOP and Perry won more than Trump in 2020.

You forgot the most important change, R's lose an entire seat yet 3/4 Dem swing seats get shored up.

Right, but the GOP should lose a seat. They have the most population loss and they lost the state in 2020.

That was always agreed upon since the begining of this cycle. The Democratic seats still needed to pick up 300k in population of blood red territory. Considering 3/4 swing seats for Democrats got shored up despite that, that's a swell courtmander they got.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::48bc041f-ff25-42bc-a74d-d90f325dde0e

Look at Palandios map. Democrats gain like 14 points from PA17 moving it from somewhere around Trump +8 to Biden +6. They gain like 10 points for PA06 with the tri chop of Berks to drown it out with Montgomery and Chester. . That's a whole 25 points worth gained in swing districts .

It's a neutral map in wbrock67's alternate reality where Biden actually won PA by 9.

Still, 9 Biden seats to 8 Trump seats in a Biden +1 state isn't exactly objectionable to me?  This isn't much like the NC shenanigans. 

?

What's the difference between the 2. The sandhills is weird in NC I guess and some rurals are added to the Greensboro district. The latter one doesn't really matter and something has to be weird in Eastern NC as long discussed. Other than that don't see whats the difference between Pittsburgh vs Charlotte/Raleigh.

[lfromnj]

Still, 9 Biden seats to 8 Trump seats in a Biden +1 state isn't exactly objectionable to me?  This isn't much like the NC shenanigans.  

My theory is based on the fact that for the last 20 years, the House map overall has had a small but significant Republican bias, with some states having large Republican biases (Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Ohio) standing out as really problematic. People came to consider a small Republican bias the natural order of things, a compromise everyone should accept, while acknowledging that Texas, the pre-reform PA map, etc. could be called gerrymandering.

What this means is that maps that mirror the state’s political tint or even have a small Democratic edge are seen as outrageous and offensive, the equivalent of the Texas gerrymander which is much more extreme. It’s because both are equidistant from what Republicans consider the natural, fair outcome - a moderate Republican advantage.

Alabama is weird as previously discsussed. a Neutral map would have been 2 swing seats in Birgmingham and the black belt in all likelyhood.

Georgia's 2010 map is pretty fair. I don't see any major issue other than GA07 going leaping northward. GA 11th scooping in Atlanta is sorta bad but if GA 6th took northern Atlanta it wouldn't change its partisanship much.

GA-12 is R favorable although the issue with 2010 is that South Georgia is like 4.2 districts so any map would be weird.

[lfromnj]

Sure it's still a Trump seat but theres a huge difference between a Trump +18 and a Trump +3 seat especially in that area. Come on man. Your Chesco split is probably a few points R favorable as well. SCPA is pretty weird so I can forgive most stuff in the area but that's just yuck. Sure Dauphin is 300k vs York and Lancaster being a majority but Dauphin + Eastern Cumberland is like 500k

[lfromnj]

Changes from 2020

PA-01: Biden +5.8 to Biden +4.6
PA-02: Biden +41.0 to Biden +42.7
PA-03: Biden +83.2 to Biden +80.9
PA-04: Biden +24.1 to Biden +18.9
PA-05: Biden +31.1 to Biden +32.3
PA-06: Biden +15.0 to Biden +14.8
PA-07: Biden +4.8 to Biden +0.6
PA-08: Trump +4.4 to Trump +2.9
PA-10: Trump +2.9 to Trump +4.1

Good for PA-08 but crappy for PA-07, while Dean is losing a chunk of Dems - where did they go? Are those the ones going to PA-05? Because that district is only 1% more Dem.

PA-01 and PA-10 kinda suck. Little to no chance that Dems can get those back even in a good year at this point with Fitz and now that PA-10 is more GOP and Perry won more than Trump in 2020.

You forgot the most important change, R's lose an entire seat yet 3/4 Dem swing seats get shored up.

Right, but the GOP should lose a seat. They have the most population loss and they lost the state in 2020.

That was always agreed upon since the begining of this cycle. The Democratic seats still needed to pick up 300k in population of blood red territory. Considering 3/4 swing seats for Democrats got shored up despite that, that's a swell courtmander they got.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::48bc041f-ff25-42bc-a74d-d90f325dde0e

Look at Palandios map. Democrats gain like 14 points from PA17 moving it from somewhere around Trump +8 to Biden +6. They gain like 10 points for PA06 with the tri chop of Berks to drown it out with Montgomery and Chester. . That's a whole 25 points worth gained in swing districts .

It's a neutral map in wbrock67's alternate reality where Biden actually won PA by 9.

Huh? What the f**k are you actually talking about? Biden won Pennsylvania. It's a 9-8 Biden map. Biden won PA slightly. The map has a slight Biden won edge. How is that objectionable? This is literally what a fair map looks like. If Trump won PA slightly, then you'd expect it to be a 9-8 Trump map. How are people actually having an issue with this?!

Still trying to understand why Dragging Montgomery County all the way out to Tri Chop Berks needs to happen for a 9-8 Biden map.

[lfromnj]

This is not what a fair map looks like because it gerrymanders to get Democrats to proportionality. Democrats are self-packed into Philly and Pittsburgh.

State-sponsored racial discrimination in housing, leading to 90+% African-American neighborhoods adjacent to places in Bucks County where they were forbidden to live, is not “self-packing.” Using racial discrimination as a justification for unequal distribution of political power is rewarding racists for their success.

Your statement is true but your reasoning is suspect. If you have such an issue with segregation(anyone should regarding black-white segregation in northern cities, ) why not place AA's with Lower Merion who actually do border the 90% black areas while Bucks does not. PA-03 is only 52% black but is the most D district in the entire nation. Tn 9th is nearly 2/3 blacks but is only like 75 25 and I don't see much push for splitting Memphis to even out the 8th and the 9th. The same holds true in Wisconsin. It is truly a very segregated area but in 2012 you would not have supported evening out WI05/WI04 which were close to 50/50. Now they are Biden +10 combined. Did segregation change? Not really, a few more whites may have left but minorities are also moving to the suburbs. PA-03 is a pack not merely because of the black people living there but also because of the whites being very Democratic. If PA03 whites voted 60% R or 70% R you wouldn't have any issue with such a district.

Now You could argue to split Bucks and place Lower Bucks with Eastern Philly into a seat that is Biden +10 while placing middle Bucks with a safe D seat in montco and lastly upper bucks with a seat in Berks/upper montco. The partisan ship would still be fairly similar all around. Eastern Philly and Lower Bucks are actually fairly diverse areas right now with not much strong segregation other than a few white ethnic enclaves.

So explain why WI04 should be cracked now but not in 2012?


*Latino/Asian segregation are largely due to self choice of immigrants similar to Irish/Italian enclaves, one can see it as problematic to some degree but it has less due to with any systemic issues .


 In the end most Bucks district are still a Biden district and very much winnable for Democrat without Fitzpatrick. Democrats have the 6 seats there, not sure why Philly segregation patterns means the core of Pittsburgh which would still be a 70+% white district needs to be split in 2 or Berks needs to be cut in 3.

[lfromnj]

This is not what a fair map looks like because it gerrymanders to get Democrats to proportionality. Democrats are self-packed into Philly and Pittsburgh.

State-sponsored racial discrimination in housing, leading to 90+% African-American neighborhoods adjacent to places in Bucks County where they were forbidden to live, is not “self-packing.” Using racial discrimination as a justification for unequal distribution of political power is rewarding racists for their success.

It is self packing that Democratic vote shares are highly concentrated in urban areas.

Republicans are heavily concentrated in rural areas....do you penalize them for that?

Yes they do lol nobody (except Texas and Tennessee partisans) actually increases rural influence. Do you ever hear about a commission splitting rurals to maximize their influence or give the COI’s more of a vote? Honestly if packing and cracking poor white rural voters was forbidden by the VRA, R’s would gain DOZENS more seats. But I shouldn’t point that out, because of course the electoral college, the senate, the house, state governments, redistricting, supreme courts, lower courts, and every other institution is perpetually rigged against dems

Yep the new AZ-01 was intentionally drawn to combine urban and rural areas to create a politically diverse district according to Neuberg. Also GOP tried to defend their Utah map using the argument rurales would have influence in all 4 districts

What do you mean the new Arizona 1? Do you mean the Scottsdale district which is almost entirely suburban other than like a few thousand rural precicnts within Maricopa?  This district is pretty fair and clocks in at Biden +1.Do you mean the Native district up north? That entire region is weird  but its definetely fairer than the previous version. Do you mean the East Tucson seat? This one has legitimate D gripes as the R's managed to get a few extra miles on where to place the Tucson split. On the other hand OP's claim of the VRA screwing VRA's is a joke although it does Screw R's in Tucson.