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lfromnj
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« on: November 26, 2018, 10:17:09 PM »

The funny thing is that they haven't reached rock bottom.  They can lose more seats in 2020! 

Here's an evil idea:  make all universities and public colleges tuition free only in the 7 districts held by a Republican.  The liberal students who would move to those districts could give us a 53-0 lol

Im pretty sure the remaining districts are all double digit Trump districts besides Nunes which was 9 point.
I think federally they won't lose anymore unless its a 2008 style wave or Nunes gets indicted.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1 on: November 26, 2018, 10:28:40 PM »

The funny thing is that they haven't reached rock bottom.  They can lose more seats in 2020! 

Here's an evil idea:  make all universities and public colleges tuition free only in the 7 districts held by a Republican.  The liberal students who would move to those districts could give us a 53-0 lol

Im pretty sure the remaining districts are all double digit Trump districts besides Nunes which was 9 point.
I think federally they won't lose anymore unless its a 2008 style wave or Nunes gets indicted.

There is Duncan Hunter's district, but that's probably about it.

Hunters district had a decent swing towards Clinton and I could see a special win but its still very conservative like Waukesha rather than something like orange.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #2 on: November 27, 2018, 05:32:57 PM »

Amazing how this is the result of an Independent Commission.


Gerrymandering cannot correct for fundamental demographic implosion, it can only shift stuff at the edges.

The only thing that comes close to what has happened in California over the last thirty years, is what happened to the MA GOP in the 1940's - 1970's.
Or the Dem Party in Arkansas.
The difference is, if the Arkansas Dems gerrymandered when they still had a trifecta in 2011, they could still have a House seat if they combined Little Rock with the heavily black, Democratic counties along the Mississippi River.

Arkansas Democrats weren't yet ready to accept they would become a permanent minority that would get wiped off the face of the map. Can you really blame them? lol

Hell, some #populist Purple heart Atlas posters still pretend there's hope for Democrats in states like these. In 2018.

anyway with the burb stomping of the year Clarke Tucker came pretty close this year in the little rock. Only a 5 point loss. But the rest of Arkansas is gone besides the northwest WALMART rich people who are now trending D.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2018, 05:40:46 PM »

Amazing how this is the result of an Independent Commission.


Gerrymandering cannot correct for fundamental demographic implosion, it can only shift stuff at the edges.

The only thing that comes close to what has happened in California over the last thirty years, is what happened to the MA GOP in the 1940's - 1970's.


What About Texas Dems from 1974-1998




id go with 04 because they still held a majority of the house delegation until then.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #4 on: November 29, 2018, 06:58:17 PM »

The funny thing is that they haven't reached rock bottom.  They can lose more seats in 2020! 

Here's an evil idea:  make all universities and public colleges tuition free only in the 7 districts held by a Republican.  The liberal students who would move to those districts could give us a 53-0 lol

Putinbot Nunes could be next to go down in 2020.
Yeah its trending d and only trump plus 9.Nunes isn't in a titanium r district like Mccarthy.. mcarthy seeing his fellow reps disappear must be torture
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lfromnj
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« Reply #5 on: December 01, 2018, 08:30:40 PM »


Makes sense. The GOP can't survive the demographic changes. It's only a matter of time before they collapse completely.

They won't for a while. Let's not pretend you will see a Democratic Party super-dominance. The dems will implode and a newer GOP conservative party will come back sooner than later.

You will see a minority GOP president.

This is unpeak bronz because for once he is right. There is no such thing as a permanent majority in politics.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #6 on: December 01, 2018, 08:36:37 PM »


Makes sense. The GOP can't survive the demographic changes. It's only a matter of time before they collapse completely.

They won't for a while. Let's not pretend you will see a Democratic Party super-dominance. The dems will implode and a newer GOP conservative party will come back sooner than later.

You will see a minority GOP president.

This is unpeak bronz because for once he is right. There is no such thing as a permanent majority in politics.

I'm sorry if it seemed I implied there was never going to be a Conservative party again. I meant to say the current GOP can't rely on their white male base to win elections much longer and they should either adapt or collapse.

And how is Bronz being right by saying the Dems will implode for no stated reason?

because recession are part of the buisiness cycle and will be blamed on them. It looked like dems would be a permanent majority in 08 and they collapsed in 2010. Even after 36 it looked like dems would be a permanent majority yet by 52 reps had a trifecta.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #7 on: December 05, 2018, 07:35:12 PM »


Makes sense. The GOP can't survive the demographic changes. It's only a matter of time before they collapse completely.

Good lord, STOP already. The GOP has survived far worse than this. Just 10 years ago Dems had like 260 House seats, 60 Senate seats, and the presidency. Not to mention tiny little things like the Great Depression and Watergate...

As if the GOP under Trumpism can adapt to demographic changes. The country will be the most ethnic it's ever been. I don't see anything wrong with what I said.

Trump is not going to do more damage to the GOP than the Great Depression or Watergate did. In fact, I highly doubt he'll even do as much damage as Dubya did. The GOP will inevitably surge back once we have a Democratic president just as they did in 2010 despite being left for dead in 2009.

yeah the max I can see a party holding a true trifecta these days is 6 years. American voters are idiots and refuse to give the party who will enact the policies they want time to enact those policies.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #8 on: December 06, 2018, 07:57:17 PM »

The mn gop dropped republican after watergate for like 20 years
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