Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[lfromnj]

Kemp will more likely than not still win this, but boy, this result (especially the county map) should send chills down every GA Republican's spine.

Yeah but I wonder if GA repubs can gerrymander bishop out in 2020. They obviously have cede Ga 6th or 7th and make it a sink.

[lfromnj]

So why did John Barrow do so well, and why wasn’t he recruited for the governor race instead?

Barrow would never have brought out the vote in metro Atlanta that Stacey Abrams was able to do.  He benefited from her presence on the ticket.   That, plus his natural base in the Athens area and his very good television presence helped.

It was basically Gillum nelson
Abrams brought out turnout and all the new voters probably just voted for Barrow anyway but the voters in his district thought he was a good old boy so he did slightly better.

[lfromnj]

...because there are only 2 Blue Senate seats up? If the Dems want to take the senate(in this scenario, AZ and FL have flipped) they will need 4 seats. They lose AL, putting them down by 4, and gain, the Blue Senate seats, putting them at -2. From there, they need to win the presidency and two currently Red State senate seats to win the senate. The most likely targets would be AZ, and either NC/GA. This would be the D path to the senate of least resistance.

I'm kind of worried that 2020's electorate will be just as polarized and that will limit opportunities. Even under such a situation, I still think Montana, North Carolina and maybe Georgia are doable. Iowa should be too although less so than maybe previously thought. Maine may, depending on what goes on with Collins and whether Democrats can tarnish her image even more over Kavanaugh (they may be able to). If anything, NC and GA are just as doable as they would be without Trump on the ballot, since they always have very polarized results.

I think the opportunities are there but they seem like harder reaches right now unless Trump goes down fairly comfortably (something I still think is not only possible but maybe even more likely than not as of right now).

I honestly am shocked how bad Steve king did. Nate silver really should have kept a scandal effect on him in his forecast. I thought the hicks Iowa 4th loved King and his internal would be relatively accurate.

[lfromnj]

Oh right, I forgot about Arizona. Good catch.

I'm a bit less optimistic about Texas and Georgia still. I really do like the performances this year even if we lost, but I still question whether we can actually flip those Senate seats in 2020. Maybe we lose by 1 point, but it's still a loss. Although I admit I do think it's competitive and a large presidential win might send us over the top, so that would be my definition of 'doable.'

Suffice to say I just have little faith in most southern states. They are always a tease.

I think that Texas statewide itself doesn't become competitive in a neutral year. until 2026(previously I thought 2032 but Beto shook my expectations.) Assuming its a slightly good year for democrats in 2020 where the dem in Texas loses by 5(a reasonable expectation) the dems can take back the state house because democrats in texas are not as self packed as republicans are. republicans in rurals are often 80+ republican while only the very urban city cores are like that. The suburbans are getting burb stomped by the dems and its very possible that Beto won something like 80/150 state house seats while losing by 3 points.

[lfromnj]

Abrams reserving ad time for the runoff. Clearly she knows something we don't: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/09/georgia-2018-elections-stacey-abrams-runoff-982557

yeah its called a big ego.

[lfromnj]

Abrams should never concede an election that was stolen by the GOP. This was a fraudulent election where voters were purged from the ballots! Kemp should be a prisoner, not a governor elect!

Kemp still wins
All she does is look like a sore loser and racist hicks in Ga 12th won't for Barrow.

[lfromnj]

RIP woodall
Georgia GOP probably rips sandfords district in the 2020's and just goes for 5 metro atlanta D and the rest of Georgia rural hicks+ Forsyth = R. If Abrams was governor she could get 7 districts with one Savanah augusta + one SW + 3 SAfe D+ 2 Lean D in metro atlanta.

[lfromnj]

Any updates on GA-7? Does Bourdeaux still have a shot or is it hopeless?

Unless there have been more provisional ballots affected by recent rulings than I'm aware of, I don't see her getting closer than 300 votes or so.

It amazes me how Abrams and the Democrats continue to drag out this process. Kemp is holding over the 50% mark, and it doesn't seem like the margin has narrowed by that much. Exactly how many more ballots are there left to count at this point? If there only a few thousand, then that probably won't be enough to force a runoff.

yeah its annoying .
Bourdeoux is unlikely to win but its not unrealistic so its fine but Abrams is just acting annoying.

[lfromnj]

Kemp is and always will be an illegitimate Governor.

How?

The only reason he avoided a runoff is through massive voter suppression.

That poster prefers to be willfully ignorant about the calculated actions of the GOP to keep “unfavorables” from voting. Don’t even bother with her.

Of course, he's a Reasonable Pragmatic Republican. Reasonable Pragmatic Republicans' motto has always been "see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil".

RFKFan68's beloved Stacey Abrams lost. Given his nastiness on this forum, towards me and towards many others, I am actually glad that she did. Her classless concession speech only further confirms that impression with me. And once again, my gender has been confused...

Wow, someone not just rolling over after an election got rigged against them and an Atlas poster(who is a good poster imo) getting under your skin is enough to make you oppose a candidate. Not you know, whether their policies would improve people's lives(yes), or any substance of the issues.

An election rigged against them? If that were the case, how did Democrats manage to win GA-06 and almost flip GA-07? What about the margins in the Atlanta suburbs? I dislike Kemp, and I wouldn't have voted for him if I lived in Georgia. But Abrams has disgraced herself by her behavior through this entire process. Her calls for a "do over" and her refusal to officially concede, along with her blatant and repeated attacks against her political opponents, to say nothing of her personal financial issues, all have lowered my views of her. And the posturing of the people on here, crying about voter suppression and "evil" Republicans, has only magnified that view.

yeah its clear Kemp was within the bounds of the law with the purging and Abrams is a sore loser. If the elections were so rigged why would Mcbath win?

[lfromnj]

I've been spending the afternoon breaking down the Governor results by congressional district. I've still got a ways to go, but I've either calculated and/or gathered all the data for 9 of the 14 CDs so far.

I feel confident at this point in saying that Abrams won 6 of the 14 CDs (not too surprising), as she definitely overperformed Bourdeaux in 7, and I have a hard time seeing her not over-perform McBath in 6. I'll have the final numbers in the next day or so.

Coleman already has them

[lfromnj]

WTH GA-2? Did rural blacks have low turnout? UGHHHHH

yeah that place is bleeding population. Bishop got 60% though but thats probably coz he is blue doggish and the racist hicks there don't hate him as much as they hate the liberal black atlanta WOMAN.

[lfromnj]

why do you democrats even care about rural counties that are racially polarized?
If you can't win them means the people just left and its not a problem with losing black voters in general.

[lfromnj]

Speaking of which, here's a map showing which candidate did better: the congressional D or Abrams. In half of the districts, Abrams overperformed the Dem House candidate by roughly 2 points. In the whitest CDs, she overperformed by around 1 point, as well as in David Scott's district. She did 3 points better in Rick Allen's district and 4 points better in Loudermilk's.

In Sanford Bishop's district, she underperformed him by 7 points. This is because we're losing the region (mostly due to population loss) - and rapidly. At the same time, there are more than a few rural whites who are willing to vote for blacks and/or Democrats if they know them. In fact, this gap is probably even more ridiculous-looking when you exclude the half or so of the CD that's Columbus/Macon/Albany.

yeah also Sanford bishop is pretty blue doggy so some racist hicks there might vote for him if they never saw his face but heard about him.

[lfromnj]

Let’s go Brad!

how can you support him dude? Look at what Kemp did to the voting process!

Why would it be surprising that a Republican is supporting a Republican? At least he voted against the pedophile, that's more than 91% of Alabama Republicans can say, lol.

yeah Indy split tickets more than anyone else here and its clear Abrams was acting like a sore loser so he may be salty about that just a bit. Yet atlas criticizes him because he doesn't vote straight D lol.

[lfromnj]

anyway I don't get why people complained about Barrow acting as a moderate democrat.

Its a SOS position the only positions that matter are his positions on voting rights.
Abrams was leading the ticket and all the people who voted for Abrams should have voted for Barrow after they saw Kemp. Then Barrow could use his good ol boy accent and get a few racist hicks to push him over the top. It almost worked too. The only problem is that Abrams didn't make the run off.

[lfromnj]

Barrow has to remember the old hicks who actually care about the secretary of state position remember that one ad with the gun and the lynching or whatever.

The fact his grandpa stopped a lynching probably hurts barrow

[lfromnj]

Johnson County: 79/21 GOP
Jeff Davis County: 82/18 GOP

yeah it can be called now
Id say +12 Raff

[lfromnj]

CLAY 100% BARROW DID BETTER THAN ABRAMS 56 44 to 55 45.

[lfromnj]

Ouch, Raffensperger wins the Cobb early vote.

I can't prove this of course, but I think Abrams sore loser shenanigans turned off a lot of voters and hurt Barrow.

I agree fully. Abrams should have conceded gracefully and pivoted her attention to helping Barrow with the runoff. Instead, her arrogance has helped to cost Democrats this race.

yeah abrams acted quite a bit like a sore loser after. She could have pushed voter supression and then explained to the voters that the SOS can help that stop that and pushed her coalition towards Barrow.

[lfromnj]

I can't prove this of course, but I think Abrams sore loser shenanigans turned off a lot of voters and hurt Barrow.

No. Abrams turned out a lot of low propensity, unreliable voters who were enchanted with her message. They stayed home/didn't know there was a runoff/didn't care there was a runoff. This is just what happens when your base are people with a history of disenfranchisement and disillusionment from politics and politicians. They aren't going to just show up for anybody.

the base still showed up for a corrupt black man in MS who was also just as moderate as Barrow.

[lfromnj]

It's pretty funny that these days, even in a bad performance, Dems are still carrying Gwinnett County and almost carrying Cobb County.

But I'm sure they'll flip back in 2020 when Trump inevitably rebounds in the suburbs!

Yeah dw everything will go back to normal and Elliot county will vote democrat once again for another 100 years.

[lfromnj]

honestly, and I know how low a bar this is, but this really isnt that bad a result considering it was a runoff and howEV numbers looked.

That's expectations-game bullsh*t. Given the Nov. 6 results, there's no reason why Democrats couldn't have won that race - if they cared to actually move their lazy asses and go vote.

again, I recognize this is a low bar, and this a bad loss for Democrats. But it shows an improvement on turnout, which is encouraging for future runoffs. And I think democrats may have finally learned their lesson to stop pandering to demosaurs.

its a row office and one single thing. The fact if Barrow likes guns or is moderate has little influence on somethign like SOS. Blame the dumbsh**t Abrams voters who can't bother to read down a ballot.

[lfromnj]

honestly, and I know how low a bar this is, but this really isnt that bad a result considering it was a runoff and howEV numbers looked.

That's expectations-game bullsh*t. Given the Nov. 6 results, there's no reason why Democrats couldn't have won that race - if they cared to actually move their lazy asses and go vote.

again, I recognize this is a low bar, and this a bad loss for Democrats. But it shows an improvement on turnout, which is encouraging for future runoffs. And I think democrats may have finally learned their lesson to stop pandering to demosaurs.

its a row office and one single thing. The fact if Barrow likes guns or is moderate has little influence on somethign like SOS. Blame the dumbsh**t Abrams voters who can't bother to read down a ballot.

It isnt about his policies lol. He shouldn't have ran the "I'm a good ol boy dem, not the bad ones" to appeal to the demosaurs

It did help him a bit. It might turn off people to not coming to vote for him if you were a dem. But if you were a dem and you saw Kemp's SOS use how could you bother to go to the ballot and actually leave the SOS race blank.
Do I agree that strategy was dumb in Donnely and Mcaskill's case?
absolutely as they led the ticket but Barrow was trying to expand the coalition a bit.

[lfromnj]

honestly, and I know how low a bar this is, but this really isnt that bad a result considering it was a runoff and howEV numbers looked.

That's expectations-game bullsh*t. Given the Nov. 6 results, there's no reason why Democrats couldn't have won that race - if they cared to actually move their lazy asses and go vote.

again, I recognize this is a low bar, and this a bad loss for Democrats. But it shows an improvement on turnout, which is encouraging for future runoffs. And I think democrats may have finally learned their lesson to stop pandering to demosaurs.

its a row office and one single thing. The fact if Barrow likes guns or is moderate has little influence on somethign like SOS. Blame the dumbsh**t Abrams voters who can't bother to read down a ballot.

It isnt about his policies lol. He shouldn't have ran the "I'm a good ol boy dem, not the bad ones" to appeal to the demosaurs

It did help him a bit. It might turn off people to not coming to vote for him if you were a dem. But if you were a dem and you saw Kemp's SOS use how could you bother to go to the ballot and actually leave the SOS race blank.
Do I agree that strategy was dumb in Donnely and Mcaskill's case?
absolutely as they led the ticket but Barrow was trying to expand the coalition a bit.

the rural demosaur Kemp-Barrow voters already knew Barrow and like him, so they were going to vote for him anyway. But running this ad likely took away a lot of votes in the ATL Metro he could have also easily gotten had he not run it.

This may be the hottest of hot takes for the evening

really? This doesnt seem that much of a stretch?

Why tf would you actively go against Barrow or leave it blank because he wants to be a moderate?Its not as if his NRA endorsement or other moderate hero endorsements will actually affect his voting policies. He would be mostly a standard democrat there with a bit of more moderate tone and maybe a bit of cost cutting.
It might depress turnout but its clear the entire turnout was Abrams vs Kemp. If you were an Abrams you left the SOS race blank because no moderates you were a dumbass and you deserve Abrams loss. His goal was to piggy back of Abrams and then get a small boost from his original congressional districts demosaurs.

[lfromnj]

What is it with georgia dems and not understanding math.