Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/DawgsOnTop44/status/1060649816466841605

[Young Conservative]

https://twitter.com/DawgsOnTop44/status/1060649816466841605

>Democrats invest millions in a blue wave year with massive ground game
> still lose every statewide office (probably)
omg swing state probably lean D tbh omg

[Alabama_Indy10]

Any idea when we could get an official call for this race?

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DawgsOnTop44/status/1060649816466841605

>Democrats invest millions in a blue wave year with massive ground game
> still lose every statewide office (probably)
omg swing state probably lean D tbh omg

Did you copy this off of 4chan? Because this is on its level of analysis quality.

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/DawgsOnTop44/status/1060649816466841605

>Democrats invest millions in a blue wave year with massive ground game
> still lose every statewide office (probably)
omg swing state probably lean D tbh omg

Republicans got clobbered in the US Senate race in Michigan in 2014 yet went on to win the state on the presidential level in 2016.

[MT Treasurer]

Kemp will more likely than not still win this, but boy, this result (especially the county map) should send chills down every GA Republican's spine.

[lfromnj]

Kemp will more likely than not still win this, but boy, this result (especially the county map) should send chills down every GA Republican's spine.

Yeah but I wonder if GA repubs can gerrymander bishop out in 2020. They obviously have cede Ga 6th or 7th and make it a sink.

[Dr. Arch]

Kemp will more likely than not still win this, but boy, this result (especially the county map) should send chills down every GA Republican's spine.

Barring changes in trends, GA Republicans' days are numbered. They're 2-3 cycles away (2022-2026) from complete elimination.

[Virginiá]

>Democrats invest millions in a blue wave year with massive ground game
> still lose every statewide office (probably)
omg swing state probably lean D tbh omg

Republicans got clobbered in the US Senate race in Michigan in 2014 yet went on to win the state on the presidential level in 2016.

Given how inelastic Georgia is, this should be pretty scary for Republicans. Ditto for Texas. I mean, yea, they won right now, but it's a slow march to the grave, and it's playing out as has been predicted for a while now (at least for GA).

Although as a Democrat, I'm perfectly fine with Republicans taking their current position in GA for granted.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I think the big news is that Georgia is a potential 2020 Senate pickup now.

[Dr. Arch]

How many outstanding ballots are there still?

[Devout Centrist]

https://twitter.com/DawgsOnTop44/status/1060649816466841605

>Democrats invest millions in a blue wave year with massive ground game
> still lose every statewide office (probably)
omg swing state probably lean D tbh omg

Maybe not this, maybe not even two years from now.

But the die is cast. One day, the party will end.

[Buzz]

Yep, there is no denying that Georgia will be blue in the very near future.  Some of those trends out of metro Atlanta are crazy!!  Unfortunately 2020 is the last time Georgia may be red for the foreseeable future...

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

About 1,500 provisionals exist in the Gwinnett County Portion of GA-7. Assuming all are valid, with the current gap of 890 votes, Bourdeaux will need to win by 1195-305 (79.7%-20.3%). Seems like a pretty tall order, but maybe it could be done.

https://www.ajc.com/news/local-govt--politics/gwinnett-extends-hours-for-voters-get-provisional-ballots-verified/xyFlEDOE0GASuylnTOHClK/

[Inmate Trump]

So why did John Barrow do so well, and why wasn’t he recruited for the governor race instead?

[Adam Griffin]

About 1,500 provisionals exist in the Gwinnett County Portion of GA-7. Assuming all are valid, with the current gap of 890 votes, Bourdeaux will need to win by 1195-305 (79.7%-20.3%). Seems like a pretty tall order, but maybe it could be done.

https://www.ajc.com/news/local-govt--politics/gwinnett-extends-hours-for-voters-get-provisional-ballots-verified/xyFlEDOE0GASuylnTOHClK/

In 2014, only one quarter of provisionals statewide were actually counted. In 2014, that number was 45%. The math just isn't there for Bourdeaux or for Abrams.

[Adam Griffin]

Yeah - once the GOP isn't able to extract continued 10-point swings out of non-urban GA with every passing election (mathematically, we are very close to that day), the state flips:

2012: 59.7-39.0 (+20.7)
2014: 58.5-39.3 (+19.2)
2016: 63.8-32.5 (+31.3)
2018: 68.3-30.7 (+37.6)

How Every Precinct in Metro Atlanta Voted in 2016

How Every Precinct in Metro Atlanta Voted in 2018

[Podgy the Bear]

So why did John Barrow do so well, and why wasn’t he recruited for the governor race instead?

Barrow would never have brought out the vote in metro Atlanta that Stacey Abrams was able to do.  He benefited from her presence on the ticket.   That, plus his natural base in the Athens area and his very good television presence helped.

[Adam Griffin]

Speaking of which:

Top Performing Democratic Candidate (by % of Vote Received)

John Barrow (SOS)
Charlie Bailey (AG)
Stacey Abrams (GOV)
Sarah Riggs Amico (LTGOV)
Tied (Barrow & Abrams)

[wbrocks67]

Even if Abrams losing, she improved on Hillary's margin despite only focusing on Democrats. Considering she's only down ~1.5% (from HRC -4), 2020 is definitely in contention.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I just find it weird how no networks have declared Kemp the winner. If there are really just 25k votes left to be counted he would at least be called the Apparent Winner. I’m confused as to what’s the hold up.

[ajc0918]

Kemp will more likely than not still win this, but boy, this result (especially the county map) should send chills down every GA Republican's spine.

Barring changes in trends, GA Republicans' days are numbered. They're 2-3 cycles away (2022-2026) from complete elimination.

So long as the Atlanta metro keeps growing, Georgia will become another Virginia.

[Adam Griffin]

I just find it weird how no networks have declared Kemp the winner. If there are really just 25k votes left to be counted he would at least be called the Apparent Winner. I’m confused as to what’s the hold up.

I'm assuming that because the number of provisional, military and smattering of VBM remaining slightly outnumbers the margin necessary to trigger a runoff, they're holding because of that (same thing for GA-07). Even if it's 100% unrealistic to assume Abrams would win ALL counted ballots and that ALL ballots would be counted, they're being cautious I suppose.

However, if/once Kemp's margin to avoid runoff is larger than the number of outstanding ballots, they'll likely call it. Depending on how the counties handle this, it could be as late as Tuesday before formal figures are released confirming this. However, this has been effectively over since late Wednesday morning.

[Inmate Trump]

I just find it weird how no networks have declared Kemp the winner. If there are really just 25k votes left to be counted he would at least be called the Apparent Winner. I’m confused as to what’s the hold up.

Yea, I don’t get that either.

It seems to me Kemp has won (even if by cheating).  I don’t see a way for Abrams to make up the difference, and I highly doubt there’s enough uncounted votes to bring him below 50%.

[Adam Griffin]

As it stands, Abrams is on track to net another 2,500-3,000 votes via provisionals, possibly a couple hundred more via whatever mail ballots remain, and could potentially lose votes from any military ballots counted.

I'm expecting something like this:

Code:

Kemp	1977175	50.29%
Abrams	1917008	48.76%
Metz	        37213	0.95%