2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

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HAYS County has surpassed 70k and is just 2k shy of TOTAL 2016 turnout.  They’ll pass it today. They need to hit 80k to break the 2018 record, which they’ll do sometime early next week. I’ll be shocked if Hays total turnout this election doesn’t break 100k. I think Biden will net 20k+ out of here.

Ok, that's done it: dropping $50 on PredictIt for Biden to win Texas.

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https://twitter.com/flywithkamala/status/1320114741243686913?s=21

What are horses if not nature's land boats?

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A thread on FreeRepublic states that Republicans early vote has now passed Democrats? What the heck? (I read there for fun)

This is...very wrong, as far as I can tell?

According to Elect Project:

Democrats    14,657,980    49.0
Republicans    8,499,200    28.4
Minor    182,831    0.6
No Party Affiliation    6,555,672    21.9
TOTAL    29,895,683    100.0

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Here is turnout data actually worth a damn in Texas, Derek Ryan's turnout report. He is a GOP consultant but he's reliable here.

https://mcusercontent.com/d3064a2fadaf6089dc58a8393/files/c88322b1-9dfd-41f6-98d4-82de00211413/Statewide_Report_Day_13.pdf

Last Voted in R Primary - 30.9%
Last Voted in D Primary - 27.2%
GE history/no primary history - 27.7%
No voting history - 14.3%

That's much more interesting. Do we know what the breakdown was in 2018?

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Hmm...seems like kind of a mixed bag, then. The 2016-2020 numbers look pretty good, but the 2018-2020 ones aren't as strong as I'd hoped.

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I know I said I would not post, but I am just really curious as to how anyone can believe in Blue Texas with this new data?

What new data, specifically? The turnout report posted above? It's not unreasonable if you think Biden is getting a number of crossover votes like O'Rourke did in 2018, as well as juicing turnout in the previously Republican suburbs.

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Texas turnout looking very strong for Biden. My gut tells me pollsters have missed something there.

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https://twitter.com/cbsdfw/status/1321143375760949256

They figured out Bagel's "lie about being disabled" scheme.

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Texas is going to pass 100% of 2016 turnout before November 3rd. That in and of itself should be celebrated.

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https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1321226268692615171

Boooooo. Oh well, at least it didn’t happen last week. Let’s hope it doesn’t change things too dramatically.

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I don’t know where the hell my posts keep going about Georgia early vote numbers but Republicans have outpaced Dems on early voting in both Georgia and Florida.

So how exactly are these early numbers such good numbers for Dems?

What is your source for Georgia? They don’t have party registration, so no idea how you’re getting that figure.

And Democrats are still at a higher percentage turnout than Republicans in Florida. Again, source?

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I don’t know where the hell my posts keep going about Georgia early vote numbers but Republicans have outpaced Dems on early voting in both Georgia and Florida.

So how exactly are these early numbers such good numbers for Dems?

What is your source for Georgia? They don’t have party registration, so no idea how you’re getting that figure.

And Democrats are still at a higher percentage turnout than Republicans in Florida. Again, source?

It was on MSNBC tonight.

1.3M for GOP and 1.2M for Dems in Georgia.

Florida I don’t have numbers but it seems to be all over social media that Dems are getting crushed early on in Florida.

MSNBC relies on TargetSmart, whose many, many flaws have already been well-documented in this thread.

And you really should look at the numbers rather than social media, because again, they show that Florida Dems are still over 300,000 votes ahead of Republicans.

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“Pending mail count” seems to be the key phrase there.

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https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1321262673170960385

Uhh... Yeah... We've known this for a while. Who is this guy anyways?

Eyyyy, it’s DaNumbersGuy

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STOP RELYING ON TARGETSMART. Christ almighty.

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Right, so the Florida early vote continues to look fine for Dems based on those numbers. (And even better once you consider NPAs will likely break for Biden rather than Trump this election.)

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Remember when he was saying Democrats weren’t gonna get there?

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1322316029347835905?s=21

Hopefully Democrats have a good in-person day tomorrow to get up to the extrapolated 86k mentioned on his blog. Am I right in saying the Saturday before is usually their best turnout?

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/pol/ is losing it over the Pennsylvania early voting #s lmao

As they should — a million vote lead by registration seems...big.

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https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1322332457241399296

Jimmy Stewart halfway through the movie, or Jimmy Stewart at the end? There’s an important difference!

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Dread it, run from it — Blue Texas arrives all the same

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https://twitter.com/breaking_et/status/1322385754677514241

Hard to see this failing to happen.

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Could the low turnout in Alabama, Mississippi, and West Virginia be viewed as a lack of enthusiasm for Trump? They were some of Trump's biggest margins in 2016.

Not necessarily -- it could also mean that Trump's base is, generally speaking, waiting to vote on election day. (I'm not saying this is absolutely the case, for everyone freaking out about Florida. Just that it's a possibility.)

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GA finishes JUST short of overtaking 2016 turnout in early voting.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322637916313735168

Wow. If Forsyth ends up at ~140% of 2016 turnout on election day and the new voters split 60-40 Biden (both reasonable imo), it'll go Trump 63-Biden 37. Which is crazy.

60-40 Biden for new voters is a lot to ask in Forsyth. Let's say they split 50-50. Still a very favorable swing to Biden.

You think? I assume most are under 35 and transplants which would seem like a liberal group. Even at 50-50, that's Trump 65-Biden 35.

Also, a good chunk of them are highly educated professional or technical workers, with quite a few minorities.  There is a thriving Indian-American community in the county.

A little thing that helps illustrate this is no longer your father's Forsyth County: https://www.atlantacricketfields.com/course.

Purely anecdotal, but yeah one of the brightest (and prettiest) girls that I know lives in Forsyth -- she's Sri-Lankan. 

And she’s not posting on the forum because...?

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It doesn't make much sense to me why black voters AND conservative voters disproportionately wait until Election Day to vote.

Inherent distrust of their vote counting (probably historically fair in the former case).

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PENNSYLVANIA
Dems 1,596,194 (66.1%)
Reps 555,805 (23.0%)
Others 262,352 (10.9%)
= 2,414,351

Dems have a +1.04M lead on Reps.

Return rates:
Dems 82.0%
Reps 70.6%
Others 72%

I really don't see how you can argue Trump's going to win PA at this point. A million ballot lead just seems very tough to overcome no matter how much election day turnout is.