2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose

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It will probably be mcsally and she will probably lose in 2020

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Congratulations Senator Gallego

Why Gallego and not mark Kelly?

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In what universe is this a savvy political move on Ducey’s part? The voters literally just rejected McSally.

I think Ducey frankly doesn't give a damn.

Ward will Primary her, I guarantee it and if not, Janet Napolitano will take the seat. He just moved this seat to Lean or Likely D just from this sheer idiocracy

Janet Napolitano lives in California now.

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He should've appointed a placeholder and leave Republican voters to decide who will be the person  they want to defend this seat.
Appointing a loser only a few weeks after she lost, is indeed a huge middle finger to the electorate.

Ducey hasn't given up his own asperations to get to the Senate after finishing his 2nd Term as Governor.

He has some Options now especially if McSally loses in 2020. He could then run in 2022 or run against Sinema in 2024.

It's getting harder every year with Arizona fast moving to the left.

Not for a Popular Governor like Ducey.

Everyone said it would be hard for Rick Scott to beat Bill Nelson. He's now a Senator-elect and AZ is still more Republican than Florida is.

I can see Ducey running in 2022 when his Term is up if McSally loses in 2020. If she wins he could run against Sinema.

Florida is moving to the right.

Arizona is moving to the left.

Doesn't matter if you're Popular.

If you look back. Since the 2008 Elections Democratic Governors, Republican Governors and Purple State Governors alike have a very high success rate getting elected.

Governor Mark Warner (now a Senator)
Governor Tim Kaine (now a Senator)
Governor Jeanne Shaheen (now a Senator)
Governor Maggie Hassan (now a Senator)
Governor Angus King (now a Senator)
Governor Mike Rounds (now a Senator)
Governor John Hoeven (now a Senator)
Governor Rick Scott (now a Senator)

and that's just a few. The Senate itself has a lot of former Governors right now.

There are also a bunch that have tried and failed. Jim Gilmore, George Allen, Bob Kerrey, Linda Lingle, Evan Bayh, Tommy Thompson, Phil Bredesen, Ted Strickland, Charlie Crist, Ronnie Musgrove, Mike Castle. Though I agree Ducey wold have a good chance because he's popular and sitting governors have a much higher success rate than former ones.

Well, in the List I gave all except for Jeanne Shaheen were sitting Governors when they won their Senate Seats. Shaheen was the only excemption who lost. She was reelected in 2000, decided to run for Senate when Bob Smith retired, lost to John E. Sununu in 2002 before beating him in 2008.

Tim kaine was also out of office when he won, also yeah sitting governors do better then former governors, hopefully that bodes well for senator Steve bullock in 2020! (Assuming he runs)

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Who will be senior Senator from Arizona? McSally or Sinema?

It's been said above, but Sinema will be Senior Senator due to the number of terms she's had in the House (3), compared to McSally (2).

Weird way of doing it, sinema should be senior senator because she won, not because she has been in Congress longer.

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Eh McSally should win in 2020 because Trump should win AZ but it is going to be the second best pickup opportunity for Dems imo

Knowing your track record with Arizona predictions, that means Trump and McSally will lose in 2020. Sounds great to me.

Yeah, I don’t get why Republicans are so confident about AZ. It’s definitely not a "Likely R" state, unless you’ve been in a coma since 2004. I could see McSally and Trump losing AZ even if Trump narrowly wins reelection.

Then again, the same people also consider VA a swing state, so why am I even surprised?

R hack so gonna R hack, you are probably the only republican poster who isn’t/wasn’t overly optimistic about 2018/2020.

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So when is Cook going to move it to Likely or Safe R because of incumbency?

5:00

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I'd move this one from Lean D to Tossup.

There's a reason the Senate race this year was as close as it was, and quite frankly, I wouldn't underestimate McSally yet, as the Democrats don't have much of a bench here.

Are you trolling? Democrats have tons of potential candidates

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I'd move this one from Lean D to Tossup.

There's a reason the Senate race this year was as close as it was, and quite frankly, I wouldn't underestimate McSally yet, as the Democrats don't have much of a bench here.

Are you trolling? Democrats have tons of potential candidates

Potential candidates and strong candidates do not mean the same thing.

Are saying dems can only win in Arizona if the Democrat is a strong candidate? Just like senator bredesen in Tennessee?

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I'd move this one from Lean D to Tossup.

There's a reason the Senate race this year was as close as it was, and quite frankly, I wouldn't underestimate McSally yet, as the Democrats don't have much of a bench here.

Are you trolling? Democrats have tons of potential candidates

Potential candidates and strong candidates do not mean the same thing.

Are saying dems can only win in Arizona if the Democrat is a strong candidate? Just like senator bredesen in Tennessee?

Bredesen had no shot all, because Tennessee really was that Republican. A strong, compelling Democrat, can win in Arizona, especially if the Democrat is winning atop the ticket.

Are you saying only a strong, compelling dem can win in Arizona? Then again I’m taking to the guy who thinks trump will win the popular vote if he does a few points better in small red states and thinks we should takes all republicans to camps and kill them.

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Did he not think that sentence through before he said that?

When he says respect the will of the voters, he only means republican voters.

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Did he not think that sentence through before he said that?

I think Ducey was too busy daydreaming about winning the seat from the Democrat in 2022

Why? He would probably lose in 2022, especially if trump wins reelection.