Oregon 4th district will flip R

[Mr.Phips]

By the way, I still believe that this will flip. And I'm expecting dems to mostly do very well in the House.

LMAO this seat isn’t flipping. Don’t know why you think that. A seat Biden will win by mid single digits (more than 2-3) isn’t electing an R to the house, let alone voting out a long time incumbent.

My theory is that most people only have an attention span of about 30 seconds for house elections in presidential elections because of all of the news going on. I think Alek will do a great job at attracting attention in those 30 seconds and end up getting a decent amount of crossover votes. I don't think DeFazio is taking his challenge seriously at all.

Being a long term incumbent is not necessarily a good thing. Outsiders are sometimes stronger candidates.

I'm assuming your trolling but regardless incumbents for the House just don't lose their seat if their parties nominee for President carries barring some scandal or other controversy with few exceptions.

Here is the list of incumbents that lost:

2016
Frank Guinta NH-1(Campaign finance scandal still almost held on)
Scott Garrett NJ-5 (Not a scandal for say but Garrett was very socially conservative in a district that wasn't and had made some controversial comments in the past.)

2012
Leonard Boswell IA-3 (Perennial underperformer going against a popular incumbent Republican.)
Allen West FL-18  (polarizing candidate that is all I need to say)
Quico Canseco TX-23 (Can't find much on him accept for some minor controversies. Though was pretty much a party line rep that got swept through with the 2010 wave.)

2008
Marilyn Musgrave CO-4 (Polarizing candidate that was very socially conservative)
Tom Feeney FL-24 (Been tied up with a number of ethics controversies and scandals)
Bill Sali ID-1 (Polarizing candidate who made controversial statements about multiculturalism )
Bill Jefferson LA-2 (Corruption scandal)
Robin Hayes NC-8 (Controversial comments late in the campaign may have did him in also went up against a strong challenger that almost beat him in 06.)
Phil English PA-3 (One of the few exceptions of someone that lost for no real ethical or political controversies. Still Obama only lost this district by 17 votes)
Virgil Goode (Very Conservative candidate that had been involved in multiple political controversies.)

I'll stop here but as you can see pretty much every incumbent that loses while their Presidential parties nominee wins does so because of some political or ethics controversy.

The old NC-08 actually went for Obama by a decent margin.

[Mr.Phips]

DeFazio will underperform but he'll probably win in the end. Since OR is likely to gain a seat after the 2020 census, which is likely to be a Republican one, it's likely his district will be shored up in redistricting.

Democrats would be idiots to not give this district Bend (which is wasted in OR-02) and then give some of its more Republican territory to OR-02.

[Mr.Phips]

DeFazio will underperform but he'll probably win in the end. Since OR is likely to gain a seat after the 2020 census, which is likely to be a Republican one, it's likely his district will be shored up in redistricting.

A court could strike down that split of the Cascades(not sure how D hackish the court is) and the GOP will certainly quorum bust that.
Democrats would be idiots to not give this district Bend (which is wasted in OR-02) and then give some of its more Republican territory to OR-02.

Ok so then Dems quorum bust Republicans in Georgia and Florida if they try aggressive gerrymanders there.

[Mr.Phips]

DeFazio will underperform but he'll probably win in the end. Since OR is likely to gain a seat after the 2020 census, which is likely to be a Republican one, it's likely his district will be shored up in redistricting.

A court could strike down that split of the Cascades(not sure how D hackish the court is) and the GOP will certainly quorum bust that.
Democrats would be idiots to not give this district Bend (which is wasted in OR-02) and then give some of its more Republican territory to OR-02.

Ok so then Dems quorum bust Republicans in Georgia and Florida if they try aggressive gerrymanders there.

Ok? They can try although the obstacles in those states are more procedural, in Oregon its part of the state constitution. IIRC the Texas state senate tried doing this , although in the end it failed. However it did work for the Oregon senate and the climate bill. Im guessing quorum busting is generally looked down upon although probably not as much when it comes to redistricting.

IIRC it failed in Texas b/c the Dems wimped out. 

What a bunch of idiots.

[Mr.Phips]

Skarlatos is almost certainly joining congress in 2022.

Redistricting will make this a safer district for Dems.

[Mr.Phips]

Skarlatos is almost certainly joining congress in 2022.

Redistricting will make this a safer district for Dems.

I meant with the new SW Oregon R sink.

If Dems decide to do that.  They could probably just shift some R areas of the current OR-04 SW into OR-02 and grab bend from OR-02.  That would make OR-04 safe.

[Mr.Phips]

Skarlatos is almost certainly joining congress in 2022.

Redistricting will make this a safer district for Dems.

I meant with the new SW Oregon R sink.

You can draw a pretty easy 6-0 out of Oregon, I’m not sure if they’ll be that aggressive or not but we’ll see.

There constitutional limits that make that impossible.  5-1 is definitely doable by unpacking OR-03 to bolster OR-05 and create a new Dem district.  OR-04 can pick up Deschetes county while losing the strongly Republican counties in the southwest to OR-02.

[Mr.Phips]

Oregon Rs could leave the  state again .

Then Dems could just quorum-bust Georgia.

This only works in Oregon. Dems tried it in Texas in 2005.

They also successfully did it in Oregon in 2001.
If a map doesn't pass legislative goes to the SOS but congressional is done by the courts or atleast thats what I Found from 2001.

Dems stupidly gave up in Texas in 2003.  Dems should do this in every state that it’s possible if Republicans do it in Oregon.  Fight fire with fire.

Also all Oregon Supreme Court justices are Dem appointees so they can just draw the House map and the Dem SOS can drew the legislative maps.