Miles' Election Map Thread

[Mr.Phips]

I'm more surprised Gordon held the district for as long as he did. R+13 is pretty tough, particularly given it was more suburban than rural.

The district that Gordon held in the 2000's was about three points more Dem than the current TN-06.  It included only moderately Republican(for Tennessee) and somewhat locally Dem Rutherford county, which was removed, and didnt include some now super Republican counties like Coffee, Fentriss, and Cumberland that were added to the district for 2012. 

Ironically, Democrats drew this district in 2001 so that they would have a decent chance of holding it when Gordon retired by removing fast growing and overwhelmingly Republican and suburban Williamson county.  That sure turned out well. 

[Mr.Phips]

LA-04 in 2008




If the election was in November instead of December, that would have probably done the trick for Carmouche; he would have had Presidential turnout and upticket help from Landrieu. Even so, I suppose this district would have been hard for any Democrat to hold down the line in 2010.

The results by parish:

Democrats should have sued when Jindal tried to help Republicans by scheduling a needless runoff election in December.  There was no reason not to have the primary in early October as usual and then the general election/or runoff on election day in early November. 

[Mr.Phips]

Miles, it would be good to see NC county maps with the CD lines superimposed to see the effectiveness of the gerrymander. Wake County in particular looks like a maximum Dem pack in NC-4.

I made this a while back:



Thats based on the Congressional vote.

I'm keeping the county-level tallies of the Pres-by-CD maps, so I can do one like that with the Presidential data after I calculate all the districts.

Why the Obama DOJ ever precleared this monstrosity is completely beyond me.  What Republicans did to NC-04 didnt even create a black majority district.  They should have argued that this took away black voter influence in the 2nd, 7th and 8th.  The 4th going any lower than Wake county should have been a clear red flag. 

[Mr.Phips]

I wish the Democrats had seen the writing on the wall (as they were trailing by 11 on the generic ballot going in November 2010) and passed an independent commission. Any commission map would be better than this.

I guess they are just really, really stupid.  I saw this coming as early as June 2010, when polls of Democratic state House and Senate districts were coming out showing Democratic incumbents traiing badly.  They should have seen this and immediately got to work to pass an independent commission.

[Mr.Phips]

Any reason the gop couldn't have repealed the commission right after taking power? The commission probably wouldn't even have prepared a proposed map by january2011.

Add a clause that makes it unrepealable like Republicans did with the RTW legislation in Michigan. 

[Mr.Phips]

Any reason the gop couldn't have repealed the commission right after taking power? The commission probably wouldn't even have prepared a proposed map by january2011.

Add a clause that makes it unrepealable like Republicans did with the RTW legislation in Michigan. 

Are NC Dems that smart?

Re: MI's RTW law, you mean non-repealable by referendum? I can't see any provision saying a law can't be later repealed by legislation passing constitutional muster.

Well then they could have passed it and then governor Perdue would have vetoed it in 2011-2012.  Then, Democrats probably would have won back a House of the legislature in 2012 and blocked repeal there. 

[Mr.Phips]

Yeah, this GIF stuff is fun!

This is Mecklenburg County 2008 President vs. 2012 Amendment 1.

I am wondering why Republicans didnt just draw Watt a central city Charlotte district that wouldnt even have to leave Mecklenberg county.  It would have still been like 75% Obama, right?

[Mr.Phips]

I really wonder what those counties in southwestern VA would look like if Hillary were on the ballot.

I wonder too. Personally - expect hodgepodge. Some counties (especially - after 2010) have, probably, gone Republican irreversibly, but there is no such almost universal "Appalachian hatred" of her, as is in Obama's case. Personally, i don't remember such heavy minority support and such rejection (almost visible hatred) on part of rural and southern whites, as in his case, during last 40 years i monitor US elections. It seems to me even Mondale vote in 1984 was "more balanced"

Yeah, I agree.

Hillary got over 80% in the primary in most of these counties. She'd be in a pretty strong position if those Democrats stuck with her in the general over the Republican.

What surprised me here was that relatively few people were willing to split there ticket for Kaine. Obama lost those counties 71/28; Kaine did only slightly better, as Allen won them 68/32.

If the pro-gun and somewhat pro-life Kaine couldnt do that much better than Obama in those counties, I dont see how Hillary could. 

[Mr.Phips]

Good God, I hate this district.  It and NC-04 should be destroyed and turned into something good looking(and less of a Dem vote sink). 

[Mr.Phips]

A Democrat won Gaston County?!?!

Its really amazing.  That area hasnt had a trace of Democratic since 1976. 

[Mr.Phips]

I was wondering how the old CDs in NC would have voted in 2012. Thus, as usual, I wasted used some perfectly good sleep/study hours to find out!

This is what I came up with:



For comparison, this is what 2008 looked like:



General comments:

- I know the swing was less than three points, but I was amazed at how similar the maps were; no district changed parties and only 4 districts changed shades.

- Like with 2008, in 2012, CD2 most closely mirrored the country. Ellmers would have been swept out by any decent Democrat.

- Other than CD1, which I was expecting, CD8 also swung Democratic. My explanation: while Cabaurrus and Stanly counties swung R, the counties touching the SC border swung to Obama. Also, on either side of the district, most of the precincts its Charlotte and Fayetteville hands swung to Obama. This is quite tragically ironic, as Kissell would have likely won by double-digits if he had to run in that district again.

- Though CD9 was the most populous district, CD4 would have cast about 35k more votes. From my experience in mapping NC, turnout in the Triangle seems to be noticeably better than that around Charlotte.

- As you can conjecture by looking at a simple county swing map, the biggest part of Obama's slippage came from the mountains. Between CD's 5, 10 and 11, the average swing was 4.9 points towards Romney.

HERE ARE MY COUNTY-LEVEL CALCULATIONS.

I will say that when I went to add up my CD totals, I was about 9,000 votes short of the statewide total (about 4.5 million). I suspect that most of these are from absentee votes and split precincts. Still, that 9,000 vote gap only accounts for about .002% of all votes cast, so my numbers should be pretty solid.

Feel free to look over my calculations and let me know if you see anything off!

Finally, here are some other maps I got out of this.

The counties with the CDs overlaid:



SWING


TREND




On deck:

- NC Pres-by-precinct with county overlay.
- CD totals by county for the new CDs.
- More Louisiana districts.

Stupid, stupid Democrats for not passing independent redistricting here in summer 2010 when it was clear that they would lose the legislature(all they had to do was read those brutal SUSA polls of the districts to know this).

The map probably would have stayed much like this, but with Kissell losing his parts of Charlotte and gaining more of Union, which only would have shifted the seat a couple points to the right and would have been survivable. 

[Mr.Phips]

Perdue won CD7 by 259 votes; if the Republicans just split or swapped around a few precincts, they could  have easily turned it into a McCrory district. Perdue's win there gave me hope for McIntyre. McIntyre, though, put together a slightly different coalition; he did better than Perdue around Wilmington but fared a tad worse in the northern counties.

Yeah, the east vs. west divide is gradually becoming less the norm with each cycle. NC, like most everywhere else, is becoming more uban vs. rural.

I heard some NC political sci professor a while back say that Perdue would likely be the last Governor from east of I-95 for the foreseeable future. I think I agree; the center of state politics has shifted westward.

The fact that Perdue won the new third by near double digits makes me think that Democrats could very easily compete for that seat when it comes open in a non-1994/2010 style year.  Its essentially the same district that Marty Lancaster held in the 1980's.  Probably a bit bluer actually. 

[Mr.Phips]

I heard some NC political sci professor a while back say that Perdue would likely be the last Governor from east of I-95 for the foreseeable future. I think I agree; the center of state politics has shifted westward.

I'm thinking Roy Cooper will finally run for Governor in 2020, after McCrory's finished.  Isn't he from Rocky Mount or somewhere east of I-95?  He does want to move up, he's just afraid of running a race in which he's not the clear favorite.

Ah, good point.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This. Its hard to believe that Onslow County was almost a perfect bellwether for the state in that race. No Democrat other than Perdue would have carried it.

I think Democrats could be competitive in CD3 only in a wave year. In their respective races, Goodwin, Dalton and Atkinson all came within a point or so of winning it in 2008 and Wood actually carried it.

The erosion of Democratic support along the east coast has been very severe. This is what the State Senate looked like just back in 2004.

To be fair, isnt that map from before the Dem maps were struck down?

[Mr.Phips]

How the old districts would have voted:



The most pleasant surprise was that Coleman would have actually carried CD7.

Another reason why I am so mad at Democrats in 2010 for not preparing early on for what was clearly going to happen that year. 

[Mr.Phips]

I'm still mystified by how the North Carolina Republicans even managed to pull that off mathematically.

'Ya have to give credit where credit is due. They did a great job.

Its a masterwork of packing. There was a lot of GOP strength locked up in CDs 6, 9 and 10 that was dispersed very well during redistricting.

It helped Republicans that CD1 lost population; that way, they could cram Durham into it, making it even more of a sink.

For the new CD4, it was just a matter of grouping together the most Democratic voters from the old CDs 2, 4 plus some form 8 and 13.

CD12 was also packed more tightly, going from 71% Obama to 78%. It changed in three major ways: 1) Less rural voters; this is why new CD12 is thinner than the old one. 2) In the south, it took additional black voters from CD8's hand into Mecklenburg county. This of course, also helped to push Obama's % down in CD8. 3) Up in Greensboro, it took in the little hand of precincts from the old 13th; these were obviously heavily Democratic.

This is the absolute worst result, IMO:



Thats Hagan/Dole. If you were just looking at the map, you'd never guess that the Republican lost by 9 points.

Dole got 26% in CDs 1 and 4 and she didn't crack 20% in CD12 but won all the others 50/46-ish.

It really is a disgusting map.  Not only is it really ugly, but it goes against century plus precedents everywhere.  For example, the fourth was always a strictly Research Triangle district, not something that looks like an Octopus that goes all over the Eastern half of the state.  The seventh always had the Lumbees in it.  The 11th always had Asheville and all of Buncombe county. 

[Mr.Phips]

It's disgusting.

So was the previous one.

Nowhere near as bad as this one.  The only really sick thing they did was add that little hub of Charlotte to NC-08. 

[Mr.Phips]

It's disgusting.

So was the previous one.

Nowhere near as bad as this one.  The only really sick thing they did was add that little hub of Charlotte to NC-08.  

The touch-point between CDs 6 and 13 was pretty devious as well.

I dont disagree.  Im assuming a fair map would have created a more evenly balanced NC-13 in 2001, probably by making Wake county its own district.  However, by 2008 it would have had a distinct Dem lean. 

[Mr.Phips]

^Wow, that's a good point you bring up.  Wake County would have almost perfectly fit its own district in 2000, when the target population was 619,000.  However, by the end of the decade it would have been one of the largest districts in the country and Brad Miller might have gotten thrown out in 2010.

Miller would have had a single digit race in 2010, but he almost certainly wouldnt have lost.  Even Elaine Marshall came within a point of carrying that district/Wake county in 2010. 

[Mr.Phips]

Hmm, yeah. Using 2000 numbers, Wake County would have been just 8700 people over the population of a Congressional district; only a precinct or two would need to be removed. The downside for Dems would be that Etheridge would lose his (heavily D) precincts there.

I might do a 2000 Democratic gerrymander with such a Wake district and see how it comes out.

Yeah, Etheridge's seat would probably revert back to the way it was from 1992-1996, which was pretty Republicans and getting more so with the growth of Johnston county.  Also, the 4th would have dropped the Republican leaning parts of the county and raised the Demo percentage further there. 

[Mr.Phips]

Here's an interesting bit of history. I was digging around in archives and this is the original map in 1991 that the Democrats were pushing for before they had to draw CD12 in its current serpentine iteration.



The new 12th district, gained after the 1990 census, was originally set to be a Republican sink the upper Piedmont.

It looks like they were trying to salvage their hold on CD5 even as that area was trending away from them. It keeps all of Forsyth and Watauga and reaches down into the Piedmont to grab a few Democratic towns.

CD9 would have been most all of Meckleburg and Lincoln counties. Today, this would probably be Lean D, but back then Mecklenburg was swingy. Even as late as 2002, it voted for Liddy Dole and Bush even cleared 50% there in 2000. This CD9 still would have been at least Lean R throughout the 1990's with Myrick.

CD6 contained all of Guilford county, which would seem good for Democrats today, but like Mecklenburg, Guilford was swingy at the federal level up until recently. Coble was (is) quite popular and well entrenched, so I think he would have held this seat throughout the 1990's as well.

The only seats that would have certainly elected Democrats throughout the decade (excluding 1994) would be 1, 2, 4 and 7.

CD3 would have fallen permanently with Jones in 1994 and in 1998, Robin Hayes would have still still flipped CD8 when Bill Hefner retired.

I guess, in retrospect, it actually helped Democrats that CD12 was ultimately drawn the way it was because it gave them at least one seat in the western part of the state.

Despite the ugliness of this map, only 9 actual precincts were split.

Can you figure 1988 and 1992 Presidential results for these districts?

[Mr.Phips]

Here's an interesting bit of history. I was digging around in archives and this is the original map in 1991 that the Democrats were pushing for before they had to draw CD12 in its current serpentine iteration.



The new 12th district, gained after the 1990 census, was originally set to be a Republican sink the upper Piedmont.

It looks like they were trying to salvage their hold on CD5 even as that area was trending away from them. It keeps all of Forsyth and Watauga and reaches down into the Piedmont to grab a few Democratic towns.

CD9 would have been most all of Meckleburg and Lincoln counties. Today, this would probably be Lean D, but back then Mecklenburg was swingy. Even as late as 2002, it voted for Liddy Dole and Bush even cleared 50% there in 2000. This CD9 still would have been at least Lean R throughout the 1990's with Myrick.

CD6 contained all of Guilford county, which would seem good for Democrats today, but like Mecklenburg, Guilford was swingy at the federal level up until recently. Coble was (is) quite popular and well entrenched, so I think he would have held this seat throughout the 1990's as well.

The only seats that would have certainly elected Democrats throughout the decade (excluding 1994) would be 1, 2, 4 and 7.

CD3 would have fallen permanently with Jones in 1994 and in 1998, Robin Hayes would have still still flipped CD8 when Bill Hefner retired.

I guess, in retrospect, it actually helped Democrats that CD12 was ultimately drawn the way it was because it gave them at least one seat in the western part of the state.

Despite the ugliness of this map, only 9 actual precincts were split.

Kind of dumb how Democrats didn't also concede the 9th here as they did in their actual map in order to make the 8th safe by adding the most Dem parts of Charlotte and giving much of Union and Cabarrus to the 9th.  That way, they would have had five districts at the end of the decade and possibly even six if they had recruited a better candidate to take back the 5th in 1996 in a district that likely voted for Clinton in 1992.

[Mr.Phips]

Here's an interesting bit of history. I was digging around in archives and this is the original map in 1991 that the Democrats were pushing for before they had to draw CD12 in its current serpentine iteration.



The new 12th district, gained after the 1990 census, was originally set to be a Republican sink the upper Piedmont.

It looks like they were trying to salvage their hold on CD5 even as that area was trending away from them. It keeps all of Forsyth and Watauga and reaches down into the Piedmont to grab a few Democratic towns.

CD9 would have been most all of Meckleburg and Lincoln counties. Today, this would probably be Lean D, but back then Mecklenburg was swingy. Even as late as 2002, it voted for Liddy Dole and Bush even cleared 50% there in 2000. This CD9 still would have been at least Lean R throughout the 1990's with Myrick.

CD6 contained all of Guilford county, which would seem good for Democrats today, but like Mecklenburg, Guilford was swingy at the federal level up until recently. Coble was (is) quite popular and well entrenched, so I think he would have held this seat throughout the 1990's as well.

The only seats that would have certainly elected Democrats throughout the decade (excluding 1994) would be 1, 2, 4 and 7.

CD3 would have fallen permanently with Jones in 1994 and in 1998, Robin Hayes would have still still flipped CD8 when Bill Hefner retired.

I guess, in retrospect, it actually helped Democrats that CD12 was ultimately drawn the way it was because it gave them at least one seat in the western part of the state.

Despite the ugliness of this map, only 9 actual precincts were split.

If you could tell me which counties are which and in which districts they are in, I could actually try and estimate Presidential numbers in these districts. 

[Mr.Phips]

The most shocking thing I found was Durham County voting for Jesse Helms in 1978.

No kidding.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah. There were a few outliers though, as Sanford won Union County in 1986, which would be unheard of today.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

For Orange, you have to go back to 1928!

I don't think Avery/Mitchell have ever voted Democratic. Those two belong over the boarder in eastern TN.

One county that always stuck out at me was Sampson. Its swingy today in statewide races, but going back in Presidential elections from the 1920's until the 1950's it was always considerably less D than the rest of eastern NC.

Sanford actually narrowly lost Union in 1986 and also Johnston, while solidly losing Mecklenberg.  Crazy. 

[Mr.Phips]

Swain County has a significant Native American population and Jackson County has Western Carolina University, as well as some Native Americans, which would explain those counties being so moderate.  Haywood County has the Great Smoky Mountains National Park which is run by the federal government, and I assume brings a lot of jobs to the area.  Madison and Yancey Counties, I have no idea... I actually have relatives in Yancey County and they're all Democrats but I don't know why.  It probably dates back to the civil war.

North Georgia was solidly Democratic locally until the 1990s, when everyone changed parties.  People like Zell Miller and Nathan Deal (former Dem) are from that area.  Northern Mississippi and Northern Alabama used to be bases for conservative Democrats in those states.  It's not like Eastern Tenn. or southeastern Ky. which has been Republican forever.

Its hard to believe that North Georgia remained Democratic even locally past the late 1960's.  There is almost no black population there like there is in Northern Mississippi and Northern Alabama. 

[Mr.Phips]

Because the Voting Rights Act was partially declared invalid, so I suppose the republicans can delete the majority minority district now?

No, as that would violate Section II.

And additionally, Republicans like those majority minority districts because they keep minority voters out of what would be marginal adjacent districts.