2013 Elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

This pattern of the poshest of the suburbs (or in this case, quasi-rural exurbs) being subpar Green territory exists in Hesse as well. The difference being that in our case, these are fairly 'old' suburbs in the Taunus.

[minionofmidas]

You can imagine his shock when the black-yellow coalition took the first U-turn on nuclear energy.

It's not as if they'd been secretive about those plans.

[minionofmidas]

The interesting phenomenon is that even within the same metropolitan area (Munich, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Stuttgart) some posh suburbs are rather green and others not.

The area I'm thinking of is this one: note the six municipalities in the palest shade on the map on the left, which is that for the Left. Well up on the slope (except Liederbach which doesn't really fit with the rest of the group), devoid of the older urban growth history of Bad Homburg and Oberursel (and in Orschel's case, early industrialization, now long gone but still leaving echoes in settlement patterns) to the northeast or the 70s highrise projects of Steinbach (which built them with the express aim of becoming big enough to avoid annexation by its neighbors. ) and Schwalbach, filled up in the 50s to 70s, not seeing any growth since. Only Glashütten at the northwest gives off any sort of pseudorural vibe, everything else is either dense suburb or forest. Compare the FDP map, compare the Green map.

[minionofmidas]

If this election had American or British rules, CSU would have 199 seats, SPD would have 1 seat and the other parties would have no seats.

The 'best' answer to this one is probably that they'd have 69 seats and the United Opposition (SPD-FW-Greens, who were very clear on wanting to govern together) 21. That's based on Gesamtstimmen - the Opposition would win, by that count, all eight in Munich, Freising, Regensburg city, both in Augsburg (one of them by less than a hundred votes), three out of four in Nuremberg (West going for the CSU), Fürth, Erlangen city, Nürnberger Land, Würzburg city, Forchheim, and Coburg. A bit surprising that Hof isn't on the list. The CSU just barely outpolled the opposition in Middle Franconia, winning 6 out of 12 there is quite 'fair'.

[minionofmidas]

Younger than the average CDU voter, not of the party's working class wing, but not the brightest of its voters either ( ) - it seems, and I'm not the only one noting that, that the AfD surge is actually biting hard into the FDP's loan vote potential.

[minionofmidas]

I only said the votes may not be there for them to both make it.

[minionofmidas]

What if both FDP and AfD succeed ?

I know the FDP has ruled out a AfD coalition, what about the CDU ?

And could their positions change after the election ?

Federally? No. No way in hell. And have all that political capital Merkel invested in a Euro crisis "solution" that consists of transferring all of Southern Europe's assets onto FDP members' Swiss bank accounts wasted?

I mean, besides the fact that AfD consists of a couple rightwing journalists, a demagogic ratcatcher speaker, and complete unknown amateurs?

[minionofmidas]

I think, if I have to guess, that some of the late SPD polling gains will fail to materialize on election day, much as happened in 2009. I think that if the FDP gets in and the AfD does not, that black-yellow will get back in with a tiny majority of a seat or three. (I think that, in that case, Merkel is likely to lose power and have her career ended by the voters in the 2017 elections.) I think the Left will probably do marginally better than the most optimistic polls. I really do not think I want to put numbers on this gut feeling.

[minionofmidas]

Vote splitting through the ages.

[minionofmidas]

Wait just a damn minute. This Euro-skeptic party might siphon off enough votes that the center-right bloc might come in second to the left bloc? Really? What a horrible country. Honest to God.

There is no left bloc except in voters' minds.

[minionofmidas]

Here is my guess where some of the "others" vote may go: Die PARTEI - Partei für Arbeit, Tierschutz, Eliteförderung und basisdemokratische Initiative (Party for Labour, Animal Protection, Promotion of Elites, and grass-roots Initiative - acronym PARTY). Created in 2004 by the satirical magazine TITANIC, it originally got attention by calling for re-erecting the Berlin Wall, and turning former East Germany into a large-scale smoking area. Their election slogan is "Inhalte überwinden" "Overcome content".

A few election posters:

Saw this one on my way to the supermarket this morning.
"Greens : Hands off our children!" (well, fingers, literally). The small print then declares TITANIC Chefredakteur Leo Fischer (pictured) "Candidate and concerned father" - and then, just so no one accidentally takes it seriously, "A child is not a touch screen!"

I'm over in the other constituency, but I think the PARTEI will get my direct vote. The sinking polls, the ugly deceitful campaign on this very issue, and the end of all hopes for the Pirates have jointly won the Greens my Bundestag list vote over this last week.

[minionofmidas]

The percentages for every party should be within +/- 0.5% of the final result (at least I hope so).

Sheer hubris. Nobody can predict German results with that degree of accuracy - polling all registered voters four days out wouldn't get you that close to the result.


It's long been assumed that the FDP ever exiting parliament would lead to its fairly quick disappearance. Now, back in 1998, that was certainly true. But if the FDP's exit leads to a Grand Coalition... lots of room for it to make a convincing comeback. It would probably end all notion of it being a party of the "centre", of course - it would be clearly positioning itself to the CDU's right (where, really, it was in the 2005 and 2009 campaigns already).

[minionofmidas]

Lol, just saw this pointed out: If you're in the precinct by 6pm, you can still cast your vote.

There's nothing in the law text banning you from going in, checking the 6pm prognosis via smartphone, and only then casting your vote. If you're unsure about your preferred party making it over 5%.

[minionofmidas]

Seriously? Where did you see that?

Voting was brisk in my low-turnoutish precinct at noon (before the usual rush hour, but not so very long before) - I actually had to wait a few seconds.

[minionofmidas]

Brüderle wants "at least the second vote"?

[minionofmidas]

CDU/CSU 38.8% SPD 26% GRN 9.8% LINKE 9.1% FDP 6.3% AfD 3.7% Pirates 2.5%

was the average of some tipping competition... exchange the Green and Left figures and it looks feasible to me.

(All I'd found was something from MDR saying that turnout in the East is so far higher than last time.)

[minionofmidas]

[minionofmidas]

Frankfurt had (in a sample of precincts) 23.9% til 12, which is down 0.2 on 2009.

And yes, the sun is shining here. and it's over 20 degrees.

[minionofmidas]

2. Disappointment with the Green federal campaign and leadership is quite universal. However, after having contemplated other voting options for quite some time, traditional Green voters will finally come home (with the decision in many cases just made yesterday). Expect the Greens to overperform the polls by at least 1-2%.

That's me!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Point taken. I didn't make it though. (It also should have read "Mutti" instead of "Angie".)

[minionofmidas]

Seriously? Where did you see that?

Voting was brisk in my low-turnoutish precinct at noon (before the usual rush hour, but not so very long before) - I actually had to wait a few seconds.

From the Landeswahlleiter pages and news reports.

It varies though: Turnout is up in the Eastern states, plus more significantly in Hamburg.

Turnout is lagging in Bavaria though so far and similar to 2009 in Lower Saxony.

No information from other big population states like NRW or BW so far.

NRW said to be up two points at 1pm.

[minionofmidas]

0.9 points behind in Frankfurt at 2.

Any recommended links for results? This includes TV channels.

Depends what you want. "Results as they come in" is really only available at the constituency level, and only once the constituencies are wholly in - and then while available all over the net is probably best at bundeswahlleiter.de (unless you want it to be in flashy graphs. Though I cannot imagine that any internet user wants that.) The big serious tv channels are zdf.de and ard.de.
Really, if the election outcome is not really in doubt based on the 6pm prognosis, one of those at 6 (local time) and the federal results site somewhere about midnight will be quite enough. If it's close... we'll be trying to find detailed results at numerous city and district websites to see how the precinct results are shaping up.
In which case, this thread may be the best place to watch results.

[minionofmidas]

Huh. That'd be quite the increase.

That said, modelling turnout / selecting the right precincts to ask seems to be harder than getting the party percentages right in exit polls. Early turnout estimates, even after six, are not infrequently several percentage points off (but were spot on in Bavaria last week.)

Down 1.6 in Frankfurt at 4pm, up 0.2 in Cologne.

[minionofmidas]

Do not take this seriously. But this is a rumour reported over there (the parties have a 'partial result' of the exit poll by now, so it's not necessarily an invention. Though, of course, your money should be on it being one.)

Union 41 #SPD 26 #FDP 4,8 #AFD 5 #Grüne 10 #Linke 9

[minionofmidas]

"Damn, I misvoted" - Steinbrück's last gaffe.

[minionofmidas]

That sounds realistic.