2013 Elections in Germany

[Hans-im-Glück]

Wow; Mr Schöffel is not personally popular.

I was looking for a random provincial partial result, and Wunsiedel just to the south is over 80% counted and currently at
CSU 55.9 / 55.6 (+8.6 / +7.
SPD 17.9 / 19.5 (-0.1 / +0.7)
FW 12.8 / 11.1 (-2.0 / -3.1)

The others are really irrelevant; the Greens remain at around 4%, the FDP had just over 5% list votes last time and is in eightth place for the list and 10th (out of 11) for direct right now.

Schöffel is from Wunsiedel and Aures is the former SPD Mayor of Kulmbach. This maks the differnce ;-)

[Hans-im-Glück]

This is the result of my hometown:

Erststimmen nach Wahlvorschlag


WV-Nr

Partei

Erststimmen

Prozent


1 Schöffel, Martin ( CSU )  839 49,15%
2 Aures, Inge ( SPD )  504 29,53%
3 Baumgärtner, Martin ( FREIE WÄHLER )  69 4,04%
4 Artmann, Brigitte ( GRÜNE )  92 5,39%
5 Nagel, Thomas ( FDP )  27 1,58%
6 Meist, Christa ( DIE LINKE )  43 2,52%
7 Bittermann, Ehrenfried ( ÖDP )  6 0,35%
8 Krause, Rainer ( REP )  7 0,41%
9 Bestehorn, Harald ( NPD )  20 1,17%
10 Roppelt, Markus ( BP )  20 1,17%
12 Ludwig, Georg Dieter ( DIE FRANKEN )  43 2,52%
13 Hanakam, Bernhard ( PIRATEN )  37 2,17%

Zweitstimmen nach Wahlvorschlag


WV-Nr

Partei

Zweitstimmen

Prozent


1 CSU  631 37,45%
2 SPD  491 29,14%
3 FREIE WÄHLER  271 16,08%
4 GRÜNE  79 4,69%
5 FDP  37 2,20%
6 DIE LINKE  33 1,96%
7 ÖDP  7 0,42%
8 REP  14 0,83%
9 NPD  14 0,83%
10 BP  22 1,31%
11 FRAUENLISTE  8 0,47%
12 DIE FRANKEN  40 2,37%
13 PIRATEN  38 2,26%

[Middle-aged Europe]

With the results from Bavaria, only three CDU/FDP coalitions remain in Germany: Federal-level, Hesse, and Saxony.

Federal and Hesse could be killed next sunday, so that only Saxony remains.

[Franknburger]

And the latest Saxony state-level polling from August hat the FDP just around 5% (down from 10%)....

[Middle-aged Europe]

And I'm starting to wonder how likely a scenario would be in which the FDP is eliminated from Bundestag, while the AfD enters parliament at the same time. I suppose the average FDP voter (and especially the average FDP protest voter) also maintains some sympathies for the AfD...

[jaichind]

And the latest Saxony state-level polling from August hat the FDP just around 5% (down from 10%)....

It seems that if CDU/CSU/FDP loses their majority next week then it is very likely FDP will cross 5% in the next Saxony state elections as anti-incumbency at the federal level will not be against them.  Also even if FDP falls below 5% in Saxony, if NPD also falls below 5% then it is possible and  even likely that CDU might just end up with a majority on its own.  

[Hans-im-Glück]

And I'm starting to wonder how likely a scenario would be in which the FDP is eliminated from Bundestag, while the AfD enters parliament at the same time. I suppose the average FDP voter (and especially the average FDP protest voter) also maintains some sympathies for the AfD...

this never happend.  The FDP dosn't exist in this Moment. This are all CDU/CSU voters

[jaichind]

My understanding is that Merkel has ruled out an alliance with AfD post election.

[ERvND]

Normally, CDU/CSU and FDP are like communicating vessels: If one goes down, the other goes up accordingly.

Even now, as the CSU is celebrating itself, they only won (back) what the FDP lost.

Normally, this should help the FDP on the federal level. This AfD thing, however, makes things a little bit complicated. I don't think they'll pass the 5%, but even 3% would be enough to disturb the usual CDU-FDP arithmetics.

[Hans-im-Glück]

My understanding is that Merkel has ruled out an alliance with AfD post election.

A Gouverment of Merkel with the AfD you will never see.

[jaichind]

My gut feeling is that today's election actually will hep FDP to get over 5% next week.   The logic is obvious, that CDU/CSU voters which are inclined toward CDU/CSU/FDP seeing that FDP falling below 5% in Bavaria are more likely to vote FDP tactically next week.

[Hans-im-Glück]

My gut feeling is that today's election actually will hep FDP to get over 5% next week.   The logic is obvious, that CDU/CSU voters which are inclined toward CDU/CSU/FDP seeing that FDP falling below 5% in Bavaria are more likely to vote FDP tactically next week.

Maybe, but it it also possible that  the rest of Germany don't want that the Bavarians have to much power and vote against the CDU/CSU/FDP Government.

Who known?? We will see it next week

[palandio]

A closer look on the results:
In Franconia, Augsburg etc. the SPD gains have not been at the expense of the Greens, or at least the Greens have somehow managed to compensate losses to the SPD.
In rural Lower Bavaria on the other hand the SPD has lost votes compared to 2008.
In Munich the SPD has won München-Schwabing from the CSU and may even win a third constituency.

Deputies affected by the recent Spezlwirtschaft scandal have lost votes (this is true for all parties) and are doing worse than their parties.

The secessionist Bavaria Party's manifesto campaign has been very succesful. On the other hand the REPs and NPD were almost invisible during the campaign and are losing heavily.

[palandio]

Other observations: Turnout has increased clearly. CSU and partially SPD have benefitted from this. The Greens in most places (except Daxenberger land) kept their vote stable in absolute terms, but lost percentage points because of rising turnout.

It's interesting that at the moment with 49 out of 90 constituencies completely counted almost none of them is in Munich or Nuremberg and Upper Bavaria and Middle Franconia are generally a bit behind.

[Middle-aged Europe]

My gut feeling is that today's election actually will hep FDP to get over 5% next week.   The logic is obvious, that CDU/CSU voters which are inclined toward CDU/CSU/FDP seeing that FDP falling below 5% in Bavaria are more likely to vote FDP tactically next week.

The CDU explicitly called on their supporters not to tactically vote FDP next week though.

The CDU wants to avoid a situation where the FDP suddenly ends up with 10% and the CDU just with 35%. If this means the FDP dies, then it dies. You've got to understand that Merkel will govern with the SPD just as willingly... perhaps even more so.

Could make for an interesting final week in which CDU and FDP have suddenly become main competitors. FDP tries to get as much votes from CDU supporters in order to survive. Votes which the CDU refuses to simply give to the FDP.

The main strategic problem for the FDP is that most voters are merely interested in Angela Merkel to remain Chancellor. And the FDP is not required for Merkel to remain Chancellor.

[palandio]

The main strategic problem for the FDP is that most voters are merely interested in Angela Merkel to remain Chancellor. And the FDP is not required for Merkel to remain Chancellor.

That's why the FDP needs the immaginary red-red-green bogeyman...

[jaichind]

In Bavaria it seems SPD+Greens+Linke are down 1% from 2008.  Some of the loss I am sure is to the Pirates, but this not a good sign for next week.

[buritobr]

CSU+FDP+FW are down 1,7% in comparison to 2008

[buritobr]

If this election had American or British rules, CSU would have 199 seats, SPD would have 1 seat and the other parties would have no seats.

[Franknburger]

If this election had American or British rules, CSU would have 199 seats, SPD would have 1 seat and the other parties would have no seats.

There are only 180 seat in the Bavarian parliament, and with full FPTP (180 constituencies), there would probably have been a second Munich constituency for SPD, so it would have been 178 CSU - 2 SPD. I also guess that without the quirky Bavarian system, which uses the FPTP vote as part of the PV vote, some Green/FW vote splitting might have helped the SPD to a few more FPTP seats.
Nevertheless, the basic message remains true, and a reminder of how unrepresentative a pure FPTP system can become. 

[DC Al Fine]

If this election had American or British rules, CSU would have 199 seats, SPD would have 1 seat and the other parties would have no seats.

There are only 180 seat in the Bavarian parliament, and with full FPTP (180 constituencies), there would probably have been a second Munich constituency for SPD, so it would have been 178 CSU - 2 SPD. I also guess that without the quirky Bavarian system, which uses the FPTP vote as part of the PV vote, some Green/FW vote splitting might have helped the SPD to a few more FPTP seats.
Nevertheless, the basic message remains true, and a reminder of how unrepresentative a pure FPTP system can become. 

Parties change their behaviour to fit the system though. The SPD isn't putting up as much of a fight in close constituencies as say the Labour Party would in the UK. I could see SPD winning a few more seats than or 2 under FPTP

[ERvND]

If this election had American or British rules, CSU would have 199 seats, SPD would have 1 seat and the other parties would have no seats.

That's a popular misunderstanding. If Bavaria had the British/American system, the whole landscape of political parties would be different. We would most likely see only one "left" party, or an "anti-CSU" block of all other parties, in order to maximise its chances in a FPTP system.

It's true that in this case, the CSU would still have won 150-160 seats today. On the other hand, it's doubtful it could have won in 2008 with its 43% result. So, while proportional represantation allowed them to hang on in a coalition government (and will likely do so for the centuries to come), FPTP would have done away with them five years ago.

[jaichind]

In theory FDP getting 3.3% in Bavaria is a horrible result, especially in light of the fact that in 2005 Federal elections FDP got 9.5% in Barvaria vs 9.8% Germany-wide and in 2009 FDP got 14.7% in Bavaria vs 14.6% Germany-wide.  On the other hand it seems tactical voting by CSU supporters works differently between Land and Federal elections.  FDP getting 2.6% of the vote in 2003 Bavaria state elections did not stop it from getting 9.5% in Barvaria two years later in 2005 Federal elections.  Likewise FDP getting 8% in 2008 Bavaria state elections did not stop it from getting 14.7% in Barvaria one year later in 2009 Federal elections. 

If we go back to Sept 2008 when Barvaria last had its lander polls and where FDP got 8%, FDP was polling around 13% in National polls even though in both 2005 and 2005 FDP support in Barvaria in Federal elections pretty much matched.  If we do the same for Sep 2003 for the Barvaria state elections where FDP got 2.6%, FDP was polling around 6% nationally. 

So it seems to me that the CDU/CSU tactical voting for FDP has to be worse than 2005 and 2009 for FDP to fall below 5%.  It is possible that is why Philipp Roesler of the FDP is already started making appeals for tactical voting today.  Like I said before, my got feeling is that tactical voting for FDP would be there and push it over 5% next Sunday.

[Andrea]

Direkmandaten in Bayern: 89 CSU 1 SPD (München-Milbertshofen)

http://www.landtagswahl2013.bayern.de/taba10990.html

[Tender Branson]

Bayern 2013 (final result):

1st vote



CSU wins 89/90 districts.

Total vote (1st and 2nd vote)



CSU wins 88/90 districts.

...

Turnout:



CSU total vote share:



SPD total vote share:



FW total vote share:



Green total vote share:



FDP total vote share:



...

CSU total vote share, change compared with 2008:



SPD total vote share, change compared with 2008:



FW total vote share, change compared with 2008:



Green total vote share, change compared with 2008:



FDP total vote share, change compared with 2008: