2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Storr]

Are there much more votes still coming in? I think I noticed a difference in MI but not the other states.

There's at least 2 million left in Pennsylvania, I'm not sure about the other midwest states.

[Storr]

Santorum says he was "very distressed" by what Trump said. Whatever, Rick.

[Storr]

CNN just said at least 1.4 million mail in ballots left to count in PA. This will be a while...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/populismupdates/status/1323896983313018880?s=21

Is this true

75% of the 1.4 million mail in votes that still need to be counted, not necessarily 75% of all the votes still needing to be counted.

[Storr]

There were some pretty decent swings to Biden in the western upper peninsula of Michigan. Marquette, for example, appears to have went 48-44 Clinton to 55-43 Biden.

Related, only 43% is in from Wayne County (Detroit). How well Biden does there will likely determine Michigan.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1323896943618260992

So not quite 75% needed.

John King was doing on air quick math so it wasn't super accurate, and 75% is then what got tweeted are shared around since it's the number he said live.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1323896943618260992

So not quite 75% needed.

Wait....there’s only 270k votes left in Philly?  It seems like it should be more like 400k from the reporting % being listed.  If it really is only 270k, that would be bad news for Biden, and also a significant turnout drop from 2016.

I'm guessing there's more election day vote from philly?

[Storr]

Biden has a 200k lead in Fulton with 80% reporting. if the rest goes his way, he will get 50k atleast from this that would cut into Trump lead of 100k, assuming it holds of course

DeKalb also has 80% reporting, not sure how many Biden should/might get...late night math is hard.

[Storr]

Noticeable Biden improvement in Wisconsin just now.

I am not seeing anything

Trump below 51% and as you'd expect Milwaukee bumped up to 48% reporting (from 43%).

[Storr]

If North Carolina is 100% reporting, why hasn't it been called?

It's not? CNN says it's 95%.

[Storr]

I know no one is gonna read this but, supposedly the city of Milwaukee has 169,000 outstanding votes. Milwaukee county has about 40,000 outstanding votes.

So Biden would need about 56% of those  (118,000/209,000) to catch up with Trump. Seems reasonable that could happen.

[Storr]

I know no one is gonna read this but, supposedly the city of Milwaukee has 169,000 outstanding votes. Milwaukee county has about 40,000 outstanding votes.

So the city of Milwaukee has more outstanding votes than Milwaukee county?

I'd assume he means Milwaukee County excluding the city of Milwaukee.

[Storr]

I know no one is gonna read this but, supposedly the city of Milwaukee has 169,000 outstanding votes. Milwaukee county has about 40,000 outstanding votes.

So Biden would need about 56% of those  (118,000/209,000) to catch up with Trump. Seems reasonable that could happen.

Not sure why I used 118k, 108k is Trump's lead.

In that case Biden needs 51.67% of those votes to catch up.

[Storr]

Alright 10 minutes for the update then I go to sleep

This is where I'm at. I have to work at 9am, lol.

[Storr]

Trump is only down 20k votes in Nevada, a nail biter we didn't expect

The rurals are reporting much faster than Clark. 

Seems so, Clark is at 75% reporting, while rural counties are 80s and up.

[Storr]

Obama made a huge mistake by not pushing for DC statehood when he had the trifecta.

In retrospect he made a LOT of mistakes when he had not only a trifecta, but briefly a supermajority.

I just don’t get why he didn’t do DC statehood. It would have been so easy

It was probably something stupid like Lieberman or Ben Nelson being against it, and with a 60 seat majority (and later 59 once Kennedy died and Dems lost the special election) and Reid unwilling to weaken the filibuster at that point, it wouldn't have passed the Senate.

[Storr]

Thank you, Southron Appalachian Whites! Very Cool!

Racial depolarization is real.

That map makes my brain hurt. Also Trump below 52% in Michigan with still only 43% of Wayne County reporting...I'm really hecking exhausted, good night fellow atlasians. (Or should I say fellow Talk Electionsites?)

[Storr]

A 50-50 Senate at least isn't entirely impossible, if Democrats have a lot of good luck.

How so?

Win both GA seats (presuming Perdue's seat goes to a runoff and Biden wins the state) and MI. Looks like ME and NC are just out of reach though. However I am prepared for a big blue shift.

I know it's a huge reach, but I'm hoping the rest of the 1/3 (CNN has it at 66% in) of the Maine vote favors Gideon plus RCV gets her over the top.

And yes I'm still up. I saw the Milwaukee 100% in 30 minutes tweet (I'm pretty sure they said that 3 hours ago) and now I doubt I'll be able to sleep.

[Storr]

Biden has taken the lead in Wisconsin according to DDHQ.

I just checked, you're right! *internalized screaming*

1,551,268  49.29% Biden

1,549,127  49.22% Trump

[Storr]

Biden has taken the lead in Wisconsin according to DDHQ.

Is this taking into account the Kenosha absentees being counted?

They have it estimated at 65-77% in, so I'd guess no?

[Storr]

1976-esque

Let's hope Joe is a more popular President than Jimmy.

[Storr]

What are the chances of a Trump win now?

Hard to say, but less than 50% if you trust the New York Times saying Biden is currently favoured in Georgia.

The fact almost all of Michigan's outstanding vote is in metro Detroit really lowers Trump's probability in my mind

[Storr]

BIDEN PULLS AHEAD IN WI THANK YOU MILWAUKEE

VERY COOL

[Storr]

So Trump still favored but Wisconsin gives Biden a fighting chance is what I'm gathering?

Assuming AZ, NV, and Wisconsin stick with their current Biden leads, he needs only one other state. Trump would have to win all three of Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania (assuming NC goes for him). Michigan would be the most likely to go for Biden based on what is left there.

[Storr]

Morning, all.  

Fell asleep on the couch and was just woken up by my roommate -- up early to study for a clinical -- thinking aloud that Arizona better not "(expletive) us in the (expletive)".

I...guess it's nice she's paying attention?

PQG, there is a chance you could get what you wanted: Biden with a Republican senate.

Is PR statehood out of the question?

I wonder what excuse McConnell could come up with.

"Brown people speaking Spanish doesn't representation".

He called DC and PR statehood "full bore socialism" so I guess he'd stick with that.