IA-Selzer: Trump +7

[Storr]

Reminder they had Obama +13 in 2012. LOL
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/bloomberg-pollster-why-our-poll-might-be-an-outlier/2012/06/22/gJQA6Cr3uV_blog.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2012/06/21/obama-leads-romney-by-13-points-in-new-poll-can-that-be-right.html

[Storr]

What's calmed me down a little bit is the magnitude at which the board has exploded... me in the Doomers thread, the weird red avatar Washington state dude spam posting about diarrhea rape, this thread already having 7 pages. Lmao.

Yeah, I was confused why people were so amped up for some Selzer (like carbonated water?) poll until I looked it up. Maybe Trump wins by this much. But either way, Iowa is definitely not reflective of the entire country. It's a reflection of what Iowa is: white and rural.

[Storr]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

Iowa-01 R+15?! It was only Trump 49% - Clinton 45% in 2016.

[Storr]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

Hello, outlier. This is just not possible even remotely.

It even voted for Hubbell for Governor in 2018. R+15 is definitely surprising if not preposterous.

[Storr]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

What the....?

I said almost two years ago that Finkenauer would be one of the most likely GOP flips.

Firstly, she's not a good candidate. Her win in the 2018 wave was anemic. Also there are no major cities in her district (Cedar Rapids doesn't count), not many suburbs, virtually no minorities and it's not particularly well educated. A district like that is not staying Dem in 2020 outside of New England.

How "doesn't" Cedar Rapids count? It's the second largest city in the state.

[Storr]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

What the....?

I said almost two years ago that Finkenauer would be one of the most likely Dem flips.

Firstly, she's not a good candidate. Also there are no major cities in her district (Cedar Rapids doesn't count), not many suburbs, virtually no minorities and it's not particularly well educated. A district like that is not staying Dem in 2020 outside of New England.

But Trump only won here by about 4 points. This district is just like Cheri Bustos’ and Ron Kind’s districts, and neither of them seem in much trouble.

They're entrenched and Bustos is a high ranking Dem. Kind will be gone in the next Dem midterm and Bustos will only survive due to gerrymandering. If Illinois passes fair redistricting she's likely out too in the next D midterm.

LOL. Kind survived 2010 and IOWA IS NOT WISCONSIN.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1322688218697998338?s=20

Contented Indie with all due respect.. is a complete idiot.

I've seen him claim that Montana is a tossup, and that Biden would come within 10 points in WV. lmao.

I don't think he ever said within 10 in WV.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1272192627933360129

This. This kind of garbage analysis is why I don't follow or even pay attention to election/political twitter.

[Storr]

Acknowledging small sample sizes, my experience with phonebanking/canvassing tells me that "don't wanna tell you my vote" probably tilts towards older voters. I also suspect Trump has more support in that group than Biden.

Oddly, the only age group Biden is winning in this poll is 65+.

That strikes me as Trafalgar-esque, similar to their latest MI poll where they have Trump winning 30% of Democrats, 25% of African Americans, and 46% of Hispanics.

[Storr]

Wait, is Trump really leading the youth vote in this poll?

Yes.

"Republicans are preferred by all age cohorts except those 65 and older, and also by independent voters and by people who didn’t vote in 2016, the poll found.'

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/11/01/election-2020-iowa-poll-us-house-races-republican-democrat-voters/6055438002/?utm_source=social&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=iowapoll&utm_term=graphic

[Storr]

Woof!

https://twitter.com/RABAresearch/status/1322695513746165760

Shot fired  

Declaration of War delivered.

[Storr]

Oct 26-29
814 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%
Changes with Sep 14-17

Trump 48% (+1)
Biden 41% (-6)
Don't want to tell 5% (not previously included)
Someone else 3% (-1)
Would not vote 0% (n/c from 0% at no votes)
Not sure 2% (-1)

That "Don't want to tell" has taken a whole 5% of the sample. Probably not shy Biden voters, but interesting.

Biden losing 6%, 5% choosing newly included "Don't want to tell", and Trump gaining only 1% implies that "Don't want to tell" are former Biden supporters?

The only thing that makes sense to me that could have actually influenced a significant number of Biden supporters becoming "shy Trump" voters is...I don't know. Trump has awful favorable numbers on everything. He's even underwater in some polls on his handling of the economy at this point, which has always been his strength.

[Storr]

This is the best poll for Trump in months, and it’s an outlier with a bunch of undecideds in a small state Biden does not need to win.

Sad to see even some posters who I thought had level heads are losing their minds over this. Everything that’s ever been said about how this race is not at all like 2016 has not suddenly been erased because a single poll in a single state shows  a similar margin to 2016.

I mean, Biden was up 6 in NC with 52% earlier (did NOT happen in 2016), but you didn’t see Trumpers panic and doomers concede they were wrong and Biden’s gonna win.

Because the swing to Biden is obviously suburban.

Besides that nothing has changed since 2016.

That's why Iowa is still heavily Trump (it's gone people...don't know why this forum can't grasp this?) and Minnesota is close. But Biden is doing well in the sunbelt.

I get that Iowa is a place where trends don't favor Democrats. But Democrats still flipped two Congressional seats in 2018. "Nothing has changed since 2016" is complete BS. It's not like Democrats have been relying on only hope and Obama era success for 2020.  

[Storr]

Lets get this to 20 pages, this thread is LEGENDARY!!

As legendary as Jon Tester's populism?

[Storr]

So apparently this was the deleted text:

https://pastebin.com/raw/gYVALf47

I’m REALLY starting to think this poll was compromised. After a screw-up in the primaries too, Selzer is in real danger of losing “gold standard” status for good.

That entire passage sounds incredibly contrived.

Welcome to journalism.