Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[Storr]

I want to believe, but I don't want to get my hopes up...

[Storr]

Called it:

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1070102416828325896

They don't even want the investigation "conducted".   That really shows they have no interests in seeing if there was actually fraud or not, they just want Harris seated no matter what.

The NC GOP doing NC GOP things.

[Storr]

Called it:

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1070102416828325896

Can’t Cooper just refuse to sign it until the new non-summer majority is seated?

when is the new non super maj seated?
He has 10 days otherwise its effectively a law.

According to this, January 1.
https://ballotpedia.org/Swearing-in_dates_of_state_legislators_elected_on_November_6,_2018

[Storr]

Hey jimrtex... it appears that among the rubes thinking that there is GOP fraud sits... the head of the North Carolina GOP.

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1070707900576882688

Strong words from a guy whose party doesn't give a sh**t about democracy and the will of the people.

I think this is about the NC GOP realizing there's a big difference in the mind of voters from being the party of shady late night bill passage/power grabs/jostling for power against the "liberals" vs. the party of blatant voter fraud. The wider NC GOP doesn't want what happened in Bladen County to taint the state Party. "Being open" to a new election seems to me, to be part of limiting the damage of the voter fraud scandal.

[Storr]

Now that the new congress is sworn in and the seat is vacant, what's stopping there from being a regular special election? This should be the procedure, right? Independent of the ongoing investigation.

Republicans not wanting to hold one, claiming Harris should be seated.

[Storr]

I would expect the GOP voters to not be dumb and throw away a solidly republican seat by voting for Mark Harris again, it would just spell doom in the general election.

This isn't a solidly GOP seat in any way.

[Storr]

DCCC poll
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000169-38b8-dce6-ad69-3fff83b50001


50 46 Mcready vs Generic R.

I want to believe.

[Storr]

McCready leading with zero votes from Mecklenburg and a lot in from Union seems like a big deal even if the EV favors him. (Source: ddhq)

Definitely a good sign for McCready, but it still is EV which traditionally favors Democrats in NC.

[Storr]

McCready's slight underperformance in Scotland is the only reason I’m not 100% convinced that this is over, but it’s hard to see how Democrats lose this.

I think black turnout dropping is the reason for that.

Which is why this is more a battle between Union and Mecklenburg,and only Union is releasing right now.

Having 2/3 of the district's population in those two counties alone will do that.

[Storr]

First election day Richmond County results flowing in, McCready 50.18% Bishop 49.40%, 4/16 precincts reporting.

[Storr]

First election day results from Robeson County coming in, 5/39 precincts reporting 60.16% McCready 39.50% Bishop (5,171 to 3,396 votes).

[Storr]

WTF is up with the disparity between NYT and CNN results?

I'm just going with the state board of election results:
https://er.ncsbe.gov/?election_dt=09/10/2019&county_id=0&office=FED&contest=0

[Storr]

Whats left:

10 precincts from Union
1 from Anson
2 from Richmond
9 from Cumberland
6 from Blanden
24 from Robeson


43 from Mecklenburg. Its all coming down to meckenburg.

To further your point, after a vote dump now there are only 1 left from Richmond, 0 left from Anson, 19 from Robeson, 5 left from Bladen...still 43 left from Mecklenburg.

[Storr]

Whats left:

10 precincts from Union
1 from Anson
2 from Richmond
9 from Cumberland
6 from Blanden
24 from Robeson


43 from Mecklenburg. Its all coming down to meckenburg.

To further your point, after a vote dump now there are only 1 left from Richmond, 0 left from Anson, 19 from Robeson, 5 left from Bladen...still 43 left from Mecklenburg.

Union is done?

Sorry I wasn't clear. Counties I didn't mention haven't changed.

[Storr]

What on earth is going on with native American vote in age of trump??

Lumbees are very racially mixed with whites and blacks. Culturally many are like rural whites, being protestant. They aren't like tribes out west.

[Storr]

What on earth is going on with native American vote in age of trump??

Lumbees are very racially mixed with whites and blacks. Culturally many are like rural whites, being protestant. They aren't like tribes out west.

That's a big reason they don't have federal recognition (and the Cherokee in the western part of the state don't want the Lumbees to be able to build a casino along I-95).

[Storr]

Bishop's state senate district could potentially become a pickup opportunity for Democrats (ignoring redistricting) if it's any consolation.

It should have flipped in 2018. The problem is that the Democratic nominee had an old drunk driving conviction that came to light during the general election.

[Storr]

Special election called in GA-5 for September 29 (potential runoff December 1):

https://www.ajc.com/politics/special-election-set-to-fill-john-lewis-seat-in-congress/Q7MKHBBMKVGBHEL7GD62FQYYMM/

why even lol

This is Georgia's law for state legislature vacancies, and I believe this is why the special election will be in September: "The governor must declare a special election no later than 10 days after the vacancy happens. The election must be held no less than 30 days and no later than 60 days after the governor calls for the election."