2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

In regards to the WV results later today, the political establishment of my state closing ranks around McKinley hasn't helped him.. somehow he's made Mooney come across as a insurgent outsider.

Question for you AD:

I don't know much about WV-01, but would Mollohan (D) have held the seat in 2010 if he hadn't faced ethical violations?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It's remarkable how much of a consistent pattern it is that the Trumpiest vote comes in on election day after the more establishment early/mail-in vote, even in Republican primaries. You would've thought Herbster was underperforming to an extreme extent with the first returns, but he ended up getting close. Same with Mooney in WV-02, who slightly trailed in early returns but won easily.

Why do you think this is, EG?

Perhaps the Trump endorsement motivates typically non-voters to get out and vote? 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Do we think Cawthorn will lose?

Honestly I think he will.

Oh shoot, I've been so excited about the PA primaries -- I'd totally forgotten about this storyline. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I really am enjoying the customary thread lull before the polls close.  It's kinda like a pre-party before everybody arrives. 

(And then the floodgates open where you can't post anything without getting hung up on Warning - while you were typing 16 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post.)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

538 is liveblogging tonight's results: https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/pa-nc-primary-elections-2022/

Everybody exhale, the wizards are here

Has anybody seen Fivey Fox, though?  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I really am enjoying the customary thread lull before the polls close.  It's kinda like a pre-party before everybody arrives.  

(And then the floodgates open where you can't post anything without getting hung up on Warning - while you were typing 16 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post.)

You know you can turn that warning off, right?

Shhhh let me whine and complain. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Are we just gonna ignore that North Carolina has a "Transylvania County"?

(Real cutting-edge primary election night commentary from PQG, I know.)

Seriously though, NC-11 will be super interesting to watch. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Irwin leading Lee 51-31 in PA-12 on NYT.

Keep him away from stingrays...

Ew, Roons....

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I assume Lamb's support was supposed to be more regionally concentrated than Fetterman, which would mean...fairly comfortable win looking likely?

I would guess.  I do think it's interesting that...oh, I'm sorry, I can't remember the user...posted about an anecdote wherein a Fetterman voter switched to Lamb due to the former's health issues.  

I also know at least two Fetterman voters (husband and wife) who voted Lamb because they were concerned about his ability to handle the rigors of a U.S. Senate job, but of course this is TOTALLY anecdotal and non-scientific.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

McCormick's in the lead, big. I guess primary polling is broken too.

2% is in right now. Wait.

It wouldn't be an Atlas Election Night if SnowLab didn't start packing up early.  

(No offense at all intended, SnowLab

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Are we just gonna ignore that North Carolina has a "Transylvania County"?

One of the wettest places in the world, much of it is temperate rainforest. Brevard is a collegey town and also the Blackest place in WNC outside of Asheville, but otherwise it's very similar to Henderson except without the suburban aspect.

Not nearly as Republican as I thought it would be, either.  Was "only" R+16 in 2020.

Good stuff, thanks Sol (though I am a bit disappointed your description didn't mention anything about vampires).  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1526718532431630337

Is it possible Cawthorn sees...BOLSTERED support from these "scandals"?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Anything in for my neck of the woods yet? (SEPA)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Are we just gonna ignore that North Carolina has a "Transylvania County"?

(Real cutting-edge primary election night commentary from PQG, I know.)

Seriously though, NC-11 will be super interesting to watch. 

Their’s also a Transylvania University in Kentucky

Great. Now I'm just imagining a university where everybody walks around in capes, with those plastic fake vampire teeth in their mouths.  BLEH!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Thank goodness you're here, Serg.  

The blue-av section of the bar was getting a bit lonely.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Wow.  Barnette sitting at a distant third in Lackawanna (behind Oz and McCormick).  

Any ideas on why this might be?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So Cawthorn is pretty much finished, right?

99% in and he's still down a whole two points.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I posted it in another thread, but Cook just announced on Twitter that they're moving PA-GOV to Lean D.

I gotchu, fam.  

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1526734125910085632

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So I guess this is as good a time as any to say that my PA-ticket was Oz/Mastriano/DelRosso (etc. etc.).  

Also: SnowLab, I owe you an apology.  While your trademark dooming can be a bit tiresome, you were right in your early-night forecast that McCormick would overperform expectations.  Shout-out to Xing as well.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

This kind of stuff is insane. They should be working 24/7 IMO to finish this out. There's no reason for *TWO DAY* breaks.

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1526929653264527360

Good to see that in this amazing era of technology, we're reverting back to elections 1850's-style where the votes aren't fully counted for days.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/yesh222/status/1526997164974653440?t=7HCmOtJjshTkoGdHpDtCbg&...

Positive news for Oz.

Really missed an opportunity there, AD: "positive prognosis for Oz".  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Just occurred to me that Cawthorn being ousted means AOC will be the youngest House member again, correct?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So I guess this is as good a time as any to say that my PA-ticket was Oz/Mastriano/DelRosso (etc. etc.).    

If you don’t mind me asking, I was just curious, why did you vote for them?

Probably sarcasm

Are you joking?

Not sarcasm, not joking -- that was my ballot.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So I guess this is as good a time as any to say that my PA-ticket was Oz/Mastriano/DelRosso (etc. etc.).    

If you don’t mind me asking, I was just curious, why did you vote for them?

Probably sarcasm

Are you joking?

Not sarcasm, not joking -- that was my ballot.  

Really?

Hey, I wasn't any happier about it than you are.  I just figured that it was the easiest way for Josh Shapiro to win.  I like him -- I think he has a lot of integrity.  

DelRosso was just...because.  And I had my reasons for voting Oz.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So I guess this is as good a time as any to say that my PA-ticket was Oz/Mastriano/DelRosso (etc. etc.).    

If you don’t mind me asking, I was just curious, why did you vote for them?

Probably sarcasm

Are you joking?

Not sarcasm, not joking -- that was my ballot.  

Really?

Hey, I wasn't any happier about it than you are.  I just figured that it was the easiest way for Josh Shapiro to win.  I like him -- I think he has a lot of integrity.  

DelRosso was just...because.  And I had my reasons for voting Oz.  

Do you think Shapiro will win? And if so, do you think he wins by a big enough margin to pull Fetterman across the line?

I'll put it this way: I think Shapiro has the best chance of any statewide candidate in PA this cycle.  I'm totally unsure about the Senate.