Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I still think in the end- the election is going to come down to:

1) How high is AA turnout (potentially very high... given the chance of the 1st AA Senator from Georgia & given the Republican focus on race in ads against Warnock- which will no doubt hit a nerve with AA voters)

2) How well are Dems able to utilize their Vote-by-mail & early-in-person-vote advantage... to bank a solid lead, going into the Jan 5th election day (which may be a busy time of year for many typical election day voters... and to a lesser extent, may be affected by a likely increase in covid breakout).

Item two is something I never even considered.  Yeah, we're pretty much doing another round of mail-in for Georgia, right?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

In today's mail: One bill.  One Christmas card.  Nine political flyers (7 of them glossy color 8x10 or larger).

My sister has a Christmas gift that’s been late in the mail and my mom called the post office to see where it was and the lady told her that it’s all the political mail clogging up the system.

So it'll be Purdue/Loeffler/Warnock/Ossoff's faults that scores of kiddos don't get their PS5's in time for Christmas??!

Okay.  NOW I'm mad. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Seems to be a somewhat widespread sentiment that if McConnell/the GOP knocks down a provision (or stand-alone bill) for $2000 stimulus checks, this "dooms the GOP in GA". 

Am I off for thinking that it wouldn't matter either way? Or, at the very least, that such a move by McConnell would not suddenly shift the race in clear favor of the Democrats?

In short, I can see a scenario where the sudden bluster around increased stimulus checks dies down and goes away, the original bill is signed by Trump, and both GA incumbents win the run-offs. 

Again, probably missing something or looking at this from the wrong angle. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Seems to be a somewhat widespread sentiment that if McConnell/the GOP knocks down a provision (or stand-alone bill) for $2000 stimulus checks, this "dooms the GOP in GA". 

Am I off for thinking that it wouldn't matter either way? Or, at the very least, that such a move by McConnell would not suddenly shift the race in clear favor of the Democrats?

In short, I can see a scenario where the sudden bluster around increased stimulus checks dies down and goes away, the original bill is signed by Trump, and both GA incumbents win the run-offs. 

Again, probably missing something or looking at this from the wrong angle. 

I don't think anything is a "game changer" per se, but given the razor-thin race we appear to have, anything somewhat substantial could swing it either way, and given Perdue/Loeffler raced to put out ads about the $600 checks and Ossoff/Warnock "obstructing", this is a bad look for them, and gives Ossoff/Warnock a way to "agree with Trump" and appear bipartisan

Hadn't even considered the last bit -- thank you, wbrocks. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

My wife and I just dropped off our ballots. We put a lot of thought into our votes - even more so than in the general election - and regardless of how this turns out, I'm pleased that there's been so much civic engagement this year. Thank you to everyone on this forum for sharing their perspectives and happy New Year's Eve!

I was considering not sharing who we voted for because folks will read too much into it but since I know everyone will ask, we did end up voting Ossoff / Warnock for the Senate races. We ultimately didn't feel Perdue / Loeffler demonstrated enough independence from Trump in light of the stimulus bill / election fraud theatrics and this was the tipping point, given we wanted senators that could work constructively and independently with the Biden administration. That said, we remain concerned about our country's fiscal situation and will be evaluating in 2022 where things stand.

I voted R for the PSC (the utilities oversight board in GA) race, for reasons I won't discuss in detail in a Senate-focused thread, but I am in general in favor of nuclear power and this was something the incumbent seemed to support.

Good read - Happy NYE to you, Forsyth!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

If any of you non-Georgians were wondering what our mail looks like every day (mine are more Republican-heavy than his):

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1345433759839993856

Hang in there, GM.  Only two more days!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

....

https://twitter.com/1PatriciaMurphy/status/1346110393660399616

I...guess that's "better" than Kevin Cramer (R-ND) basically saying "I don't see the problem here."

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

That is sadly true.

The Republican Party has become the cult of Trump.

Aside from a few exceptions, one has to be a Trump bootlicker to have any chance of winning.

I agree that this kind of personality cult which ignores or completely distracts from the issues/voting records/policies of the candidates (something that is probably hurting Republicans a little in this race) is unfortunate and not healthy in any political system. You can tell Perdue’s only doing it to save his job, and I honestly feel a little sorry for him (although I know you guys don’t ).

It kinda reminds me of when McSally said something like "I don't talk to fake news" when asked by CNN's Manu Raju about the impeachment proceedings.

It was like a middle-schooler trying to act tough in front of the cool kids. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I feel like high election day turnout is a necessary, but perhaps not sufficient condition for a Republican victory. Though that certainly depends on the degree to which the Democrats have cannablised their e-day vote in the early vote.

Welcome to the forum!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I'm very excited for this to be version 2.0 of the 2017 Virginia governors race thread, where on every other page someone decides a different side is going to win in a landslide based on an anecdotal turnout tweet.

Ahh my favorite was a "political science expert" who said that exit polls didn't look good for Northam....at midday. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Temporarily locking thread for a clean up. Back up shortly.

Done. Discussion of the comment above has been moved to Forum Community (and if that's not the right location, the mod there can move it again.) Let's not let this get in the way of a busy election day thread.

Thank you, Brittain!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

For the curious: the last time that a split occurred between two simultaneous Senate elections was 1966 (Strom Thurmond-R/ Ernest Hollings-D). 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/beauvans/status/1346462167122518018
https://twitter.com/AmyEGardner/status/1346427296819908608
2 conflicting anecodtes, a reminder not to take any info on twitter too seriously.

I'm not sure these are necessarily conflicting: turnout may not be uniform across all precincts. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Any more anecdotal turnout reports for us to glean over?

A colleague of mine in Walton County (between Monroe and Loganville) went to vote at lunchtime and reported zero wait time.

That's where Loganville is, right GM?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

^^

Eggymceggerson- GASen Warnock/Ossoff LETS GOOOO
@Eggymceggerson3

Lifelong Democrat. Fierce partisan hack. Anti-fascist and anti-populist. Data analyst and center left sh**tposter. Not always in that order. He/Him

Definitely a reliable source right here.

The numbers come from the elections director of Spaulding County. Seems reliable to me.

https://twitter.com/breaking_et/status/1346511208195772425

What's with the breakfast-food themes?

(Also, I really want scrambled eggs on ciabatta now.)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/charlesbethea/status/1346466678968778754

Was it necessary to specify "women's" ?

Yes.  Yes it was. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

CNN are claiming they will release an exit poll in around 45 minutes.

Perhaps I just completely blacked out in November, but, is it usual to release an exit poll two hours before polls close?  

Yes, 5pm Eastern is the standard time for initial exit poll release.  But it won't include any top-line numbers, just things like "what was the most important issue", "when did you make up your mind", etc.

Ah, yeah, makes sense. Thanks!

And you can bet we'll pore over every figure we get

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Yay! SN's limo has arrived!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

While I would have voted for Purdue myself, I have to say that IF Loeffler loses tonight, it will make for one happy PQG.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

From the NYT:

The race now leans toward the Democrats. There's a long way to go and it's close, but thus far the Democrats have done better than they need, even if narrowly, across all vote methods and in all regions. The Republicans will need to do better in what's remaining than we would expect based on how well they've done so far, particularly in the Atlanta area, where virtually no election day votes have been counted.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Getting serious 2017-AL SEN vibes: hopeful optimism from the Democrats throughout the day with that cautious optimism becoming more realized as the GOP fails to meet expectations.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

We've hit "Probably Warnock" on the needle

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Ugh I really need to go to bed.

But I was here when GA flipped to Biden at the crack of dawn and I'm gonna be here when an official call is made, dammit!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Ugh I really need to go to bed.

But I was here when GA flipped to Biden at the crack of dawn and I'm gonna be here when an official call is made, dammit!

Wasn't that 2-3 days later?

Yup! Before sunrise 2-3 days later and I was here for it instead of studyin--uh...nevermind.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

While I still don't necessarily love the idea of trifectas, I'm more than okay with McConnell getting his sorry self unseated as SML.  

Well done, GA