2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (user search)
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  2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 647633 times)
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,445
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06
« Reply #50 on: November 03, 2020, 07:50:09 PM »
Reid Epstein from NYT:

Quote
Republican officials in Wisconsin are also saying they think Milwaukee Election Day turnout has been soft today.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,445
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06
« Reply #51 on: November 03, 2020, 07:52:33 PM »
Quote from: Rep. Spark on November 03, 2020, 07:50:14 PM
What is going on in Virginia right now???

Referring to Trump being up in Virginia, Spark?
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,445
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06
« Reply #52 on: November 03, 2020, 07:55:16 PM »
Wow, Biden actually pulling in decent numbers in Ohio -- better than I expected. 
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,445
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06
« Reply #53 on: November 03, 2020, 08:13:37 PM »
Quote from: ProudModerate2 on November 03, 2020, 08:12:37 PM
Wow.
Ohio is looking good for Biden so far, with 36% counted he is leading by +13.
Am I reading this data correctly.
That's huge. What am I not understanding? Only Urban votes counted so far? What?

Use caution with that lead.  Ohio can swing pretty heavily as more votes come in (I believe it did back in 2016).  But Biden will invariably do better than Hillary here and that bodes somewhat well for his chances elsewhere in the midwest. 
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,445
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06
« Reply #54 on: November 03, 2020, 08:19:47 PM »
I'm genuinely surprised we haven't seen anybody predicting that Trump will win the popular vote. 
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,445
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06
« Reply #55 on: November 03, 2020, 08:20:41 PM »
Quote from: LabourJersey on November 03, 2020, 08:20:07 PM
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 03, 2020, 08:19:47 PM
I'm genuinely surprised we haven't seen anybody predicting that Trump will win the popular vote. 

Because he won't?

(I know.  I was being facetious.)
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,445
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06
« Reply #56 on: November 03, 2020, 08:28:20 PM »
CNN: "If you had told us four years ago that Georgia would be competitive, we would have said *no*..."

What?
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,445
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06
« Reply #57 on: November 03, 2020, 08:31:29 PM »
Only 4% of the vote in for PA, but that Biden +62 is super jarring for...well, any state. 
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,445
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06
« Reply #58 on: November 03, 2020, 08:37:42 PM »
A blue New Hanover County (NC) is pretty striking.  Hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1976. 
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,445
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06
« Reply #59 on: November 03, 2020, 08:41:18 PM »
Quote from: #proudtikitorchmarcher on November 03, 2020, 08:38:37 PM
One bit of good news for Biden though, He is only down by 5 points in Bell county Texas, this means the military vote has swung a decent bit D.

I noticed that too.  One of my brothers spends quite a bit time in Bell County and yeah, it's pretty military heavy. 
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,445
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06
« Reply #60 on: November 03, 2020, 08:49:54 PM »
(Whoops, forgot to quote)

I think forumlurker was referring to Trump being up 39% in Allegheny at the present. 
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,445
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06
« Reply #61 on: November 03, 2020, 08:55:31 PM »
Ohio, man....

CNN reporting that Biden is overperforming Clinton in some twelve to fifteen counties/underperforming her in zero.    

Trump is underperforming himself in a single county (I think it was either Pike or Highland).  

Something to watch as the night progresses.  
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,445
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06
« Reply #62 on: November 03, 2020, 08:59:10 PM »
Quote from: ProudModerate2 on November 03, 2020, 08:58:18 PM
What is going on in Michigan.
Are numbers from the big cities not in yet?

No, Michigan has said that they may not get the full results in for at least several more days.  That's another thing: don't be surprised to see some states hang up in a weird configuration. 
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,445
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06
« Reply #63 on: November 03, 2020, 09:19:22 PM »
"We don't expect Kansas to be blue by the end of the evening, BUT..."

Uh, sorry John.  There's no "but" after that statement Tongue
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,445
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06
« Reply #64 on: November 03, 2020, 09:36:26 PM »
Ohio is behaving unexpectedly tonight. 

About 50% of the vote still out in Cuyahoga.  And that 30 pt. lead for Biden in Hamilton (albeit with only about half the vote in) is pretty stunning. 

I still definitely don't have Ohio flipping -- like in any scenario, but still, it's something to watch. 
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,445
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06
« Reply #65 on: November 03, 2020, 09:39:19 PM »
Quote from: Storr on November 03, 2020, 09:37:45 PM
Quote from: (CT) The Free North on November 03, 2020, 09:35:57 PM
North Carolina is down to 50k on DDHQ. Tillis down 20k, he'll win, I think Trump will too. Not a lot of vote left, but its been overwhelmingly Trump.
It has 99% in though, which is significant. I'll be so happy if Biden wins NC.

Doesn't NC only have about 80% in?
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,445
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06
« Reply #66 on: November 03, 2020, 10:00:31 PM »
Per Jeremy Peters (NYT) on Michigan:

Quote
The incomplete Michigan results reflect a Trump advantage because the largest chunk is coming from Oakland County’s Election Day vote. Many more absentee votes are still out.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,445
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06
« Reply #67 on: November 03, 2020, 10:04:45 PM »
It's only been mentioned a couple of times, but as is the case with Johnson County (KS): anytime a candidate flips a county that hasn't voted a certain way in over a century -- pure election junkie fodder. 
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,445
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06
« Reply #68 on: November 03, 2020, 10:07:17 PM »
Biden up 10 pts. in Maricopa with 77% of the vote. 
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,445
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06
« Reply #69 on: November 03, 2020, 10:10:25 PM »
Biden's also overperforming in Coconino County (AZ). 

Hillary won here by +29 in 2016.  Biden currently +37 with around 70% of the vote reported. 
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,445
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06
« Reply #70 on: November 03, 2020, 10:50:51 PM »
Quote from: kireev on November 03, 2020, 10:49:27 PM
Quote from: I was wrong.... on November 03, 2020, 10:47:33 PM


Looks like election day votes only.

I was about to say: Vigo County will go for Trump this cycle, but he's reporting this with only 9% of the vote in....
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,445
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06
« Reply #71 on: November 03, 2020, 10:52:42 PM »
Quote from: Alcibiades on November 03, 2020, 10:50:25 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 03, 2020, 10:47:38 PM
Douglas County in North WI is 100% counted.

Trump +8.5

2016: Hillary +7.5

Might be missing absentee/early votes though, because turnout is 6.000 votes lower.

Let’s hope. Not good, and surprising considering that Biden is doing well so far in NE MN.

NYT indeed has Douglas at Trump +8.5, but with only 61% of the vote in. 
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,445
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06
« Reply #72 on: November 03, 2020, 11:07:18 PM »
NE-02:  Biden ahead by about nine with 57% in (per CNN)
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,445
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06
« Reply #73 on: November 03, 2020, 11:09:18 PM »
On a Senate note:  GA-SEN candidate Doug Collins has just conceded to Loeffler.  (NYT)
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,445
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06
« Reply #74 on: November 03, 2020, 11:12:18 PM »
(NYT) Lackawanna County, PA just flipped to Biden +8 with about 95% of the vote reported. 
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