2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

(CNN) Trump now down to a 48,000-vote lead in Michigan.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

For more Michigan screwiness, the NYT map has Biden leading Antrim County (along the northwestern edge of the "mitten") 62.5-32.3 with >98% of the vote reported.

This is a solidly Republican county.  It went for Trump by +28.4 in 2016.  

Fairly certain someone plugged in the numbers backwards (though, as I said before: after the last 12-hours, a 58 pt. swing? SURE!!!! WHY NOT?!)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So where did the condescending doomers go with their no data just saying "shut and believe me"? Obviously votes still to count, Trump can still win but really looking good for Biden.

I don't necessarily mind the doomers as much (or the Trump supporters who only come here to post "HAHAHAHAHAHAH"), but I will say it's nice to be able to hear my thoughts.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Aw...I was really starting to like the early morning crew being so polite to each other....

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Quick question since I'm just now getting back online - anyone know the story with the NYT needle saying Biden is favored in Georgia? Is that legit or is there some weird data oddity somewhere?

No, it's somewhat conceivable (though I don't expect it to happen).  There's still quite a few votes left in the Atlanta metro region that could (COULD) give Biden a tiny tiny lead -- plus most of the rurals have already reported.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Can we talk about New Jersey for a second? A nearly *10%* shift since 2016. Biden +23 right now. Wow.

No because it would be as stupid as talking about New York shifting 10 points to the right, we don't have enough >90% in counties.

Yup.  NYT has Biden up in Monmouth County by about eleven points.  Biden is not winning Monmouth County.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1323813979203010562?s=19

This is ten, eleven hours old.  GA is Biden 64% at the present.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1323813979203010562?s=19

Those are old. They have Biden ever so slightly favoured in GA now.

Deleted, sorry.

You're good.  We're all on pins and needles right now and it's easy to post something knee-jerk

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So how does MI look now?

Trump up by 0.5% (NYT), but still a HUGE chunk of votes to come from Wayne County (Detroit).  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Regardless of what happens with Biden, Pelosi and Schumer have got to go

From a moderate across the aisle:  agreed.  For as much as I'd love for my own party to take a good hard look at itself, the Democratic Party definitely has some retooling to do.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I dumped 50€ on Trump ending up with between 240-269 EV on a betting site.

For a reward of 450€.

Hopefully Biden does NOT win GA !

Biden winning back the Blue Wall is just fine.

It could work if Biden wins GA, but Trump somehow holds onto PA.

I would also cash in if Trump somehow wins AZ+NV, but Biden GA.

You can rule the last one out.

How is Georgia looking to you, GM?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

CNN reminding us that PA features a "three-day grace period" for mail-in ballots to arrive post-Election Day.  (They'll undoubtedly be subjected to legal challenges, especially if the margin depends on them).  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

On a personal note: just wanted to check in and make sure everybody is doing okay -- and I mean *everybody*.  

It's a super stressful time for all of us.  I'll repeat what I said before: if you're feeling physically ill, if you feel yourself panicking, if you didn't get enough sleep last night -- it's okay to turn off the TV, get away from your computer/phone screen, and go for a walk, take a nap, or just try your best to focus on other work.  

I'm not trained by any means, but if anybody needs to vent or you just want to chat to blow off steam, my inbox is always open.  

Please take care of yourselves, guys.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I'm super tired so I might have mentioned this before, but the way this result is looking right now is pretty much a dream result for moderate republicans. They get rid of Trump and at least have a chance at taking the party in a direction away from Trumpism, while holding the senate and effectively making Biden a lame duck president. On the other hand, it could just pave the way for Alex Jones 2024 or even Q himself.

IF things hold as they are, I'm quite pleased.  I will say, though, that I'm saddened some of my favorite Democrats in the House lost last night.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Ok what happened in Antrim county MI? It was Trump +29 and now Biden +26

I noticed this earlier:

For more Michigan screwiness, the NYT map has Biden leading Antrim County (along the northwestern edge of the "mitten") 62.5-32.3 with >98% of the vote reported.

This is a solidly Republican county.  It went for Trump by +28.4 in 2016.  

Fairly certain someone plugged in the numbers backwards (though, as I said before: after the last 12-hours, a 58 pt. swing? SURE!!!! WHY NOT?!)

Just checked the Michigan SOS site.  The .pdf for unofficial 2020 results has the same numbers.  Still, I'm near-100% certain that someone screwed up these numbers (likely swapped them).  There's no way that this county swung almost sixty points.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Antrim Co Michigan has to be some clerical error or something isn't it?



Was 62-33 Trump in 2016.  It almost completely inversed.

Yeah, that looks very odd indeed.

That county cast 13,667 votes in 2016. That >98% reporting is probably wrong. It might be accurate in terms of number of precincts, but no way is there no more outstanding vote there.

The PDF sheet from the SOS site also shows these numbers.

But yeah, a sixty point swing would be the biggest shock on an already shocking night, though it's pretty much 100% certain that this is a data error.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Hoo boy...

(NYT)

Because of an error in an Edison Research data feed of results, the estimate of the counted vote in Arizona displaying on maps and tables is too high. The actual estimate is that 86% of the vote has been counted.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Why the hell are people having a debate about the semantics of Latin/Latino/Latinx, when that has absolutely nothing to do with why Biden significantly underperformed among FL and TX Latinos?

I think it's just (a) a natural response to some rather surprising trends and (b) there's not a whole lot going on right now worth discussing outside of some vote batches trickling in.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

fink nooooo

Huh?

Finkenauer lost in IA-01.

The House was pretty bad for Dems all around. We lost a lot of good freshman from Cunningham in SC to Horn in OK to Quetzalcoatl Small in NM. RIP FFs

The Presidency aside, I'm legit upset about Cunningham, Horn, and Torres-Small.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Yeah, NYT just snapped AZ back from >98% of the vote in to 86%.  Biden still leads by six in Maricopa, though.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So it's possible

It's definitely possible, but it'll depend on how heavily these late mail votes split for Trump and how many registered Republicans cross over. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

FWIW that thread from Nate Cohn goes on to say he thinks Biden still narrowly will survive

Yup.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324071070652157953

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

(NYT):  Trump's campaign is requesting a recount in WI --

Trump’s campaign manager says he’ll request a recount in Wisconsin, though it may be up to two weeks before one can begin. In 2016 a statewide recount increased Trump’s margin by 131 votes.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/PattersonNBC/status/1324086177885003778

Ah, I'm getting vicarious "Sore Loserman" flashbacks

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

(NYT) Fox News isn't coming off their AZ call:

On Fox News, Chris Wallace tells viewers the WI pickup is key for Biden: “It’s real simple math now. Six votes in NV, 16 votes in MI, and he reaches precisely the magic number.” (Fox has called AZ for Biden.)