Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

lol

Good to have you back, darling. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Emerson, Feb. 16-18, 1,250 RV

Approve 48 (+1)
Disapprove 44 (-4)

(Dr. RI posted the H2H between Trump and the Democratic nominees over on the 2020 election board)

President Trump’s job performance rating of +4 points is the highest it has been since he took office. This month’s poll finds him at 48% approval and 44% disapproval, up from last month’s 47% approval and 48% disapproval. Emerson College Polling found Trump at 48% approval in December 2019, November 2019, and February 2017 as well but his disapproval numbers are lower now than they’ve ever been before. It also appears that there is no appetite within the GOP for a different nominee, as 91% said they would vote for Trump for the nomination in 2020.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

FEB 13-16, 2020
A+
Marist College
1,416   A
1,164   RV



All Adults:
Approve 42% (+1 since JAN 7-12)
Disapprove 51% (-1)

RV:
Approve 44% (+2)
Disapprove 51% (-1)


http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Wednesday-Release_NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_2002171446.pdf





For what is worth 538 (RV) is now showing Trump -4,2 under water - 45,9/50,1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

Trump's best aggregate-538 disapproval figure since April 30th, 2017 (among RV's, anyway).

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Stepping up onto my soapbox for a moment:

So it seems as though Trump's approval/disapproval ratings are stabilizing.  But in this current environment of highly-charged partisanship where pretty much everybody has a "team" that they want to win, I think it's sometimes easy to forget that there's still months and months of a long election season ahead.  Nobody (whether you love Trump or hate him) should be counting his or her chickens yet. 

Allegations of misconduct, campaign gaffes, health problems -- they're all still on the table and almost certain (in some form of another) for the incumbent or any of the candidates.  (And frankly, I can't wait for the meat of the campaigns, hehe). 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1241052330511958020

This. 

Positive or negative, we won't have an idea of how this event will impact Trump's ratings for a while. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

APR 4-7, 2020
A-
Fox News
1,107   RV   

https://www.scribd.com/document/455760294/Fox-News-Poll-April-4-7-2020


Job Approval   
49 (+1 since MAR 21-24)
49 (-2)

Corona:
51 (nc)
48 (+2)

H2H:
Biden 42 (-7)
Trump 42 (+2)

Both Biden and Trump only garner support from a combined 47% of independent respondents?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Interesting in the Gallup poll:

Congress may be enjoying a rally of its own, and one that may be persisting. Currently, 30% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, up from 22% in early March. Congressional members' bipartisan work that led to the recent $2 trillion stimulus package may have boosted Americans' ratings of the legislative branch to the 30% mark this month -- a feat not seen in more than a decade.

Congress' ratings ranged between 31% and 39% for most of 2009 when Barack Obama was enjoying his presidential honeymoon and working with Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress. In October 2009, it sank below 30% and remained below that level for the decade that followed -- including a record low of 9% in November 2013 after the federal government shutdown that fall.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/308675/trump-job-rating-slides-satisfaction-tumbles.aspx

Wow.  Has anyone anywhere (even on these forums) talked about a Congressional rally?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

“Perot stole the election from Bush” is a myth. The 92 exit poll found that Perot voters would have split 50-50 between Bush and Clinton if he weren’t on the ballot. The fact is that Bush’s approval was in the 30s, the recession was technically over but the recovery in employment didn’t really pick up until 93. And it’s just incredibly hard for a party to win the presidency four times in a row.

Part of me would've loved to have been politically aware (or...alive, even) during America Decides '92.  Seems like such an interesting and unique election. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

“Perot stole the election from Bush” is a myth. The 92 exit poll found that Perot voters would have split 50-50 between Bush and Clinton if he weren’t on the ballot. The fact is that Bush’s approval was in the 30s, the recession was technically over but the recovery in employment didn’t really pick up until 93. And it’s just incredibly hard for a party to win the presidency four times in a row.

Part of me would've loved to have been politically aware (or...alive, even) during America Decides '92.  Seems like such an interesting and unique election. 

I turned 7 that year. It was the first election I remember a lot of.

I would've just wanted to see Ross Perot and his charts....

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

“Perot stole the election from Bush” is a myth. The 92 exit poll found that Perot voters would have split 50-50 between Bush and Clinton if he weren’t on the ballot. The fact is that Bush’s approval was in the 30s, the recession was technically over but the recovery in employment didn’t really pick up until 93. And it’s just incredibly hard for a party to win the presidency four times in a row.

Part of me would've loved to have been politically aware (or...alive, even) during America Decides '92.  Seems like such an interesting and unique election. 

Were you politically aware for 2000? That was a hoot and a half. I was seven and remember it to an extent.

I was....what? Four years old?  So no specific memories of the 2000 election. 

But anyway, I digress -- I'm pulling this thread off the rails. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Betting Odds are firmly Trump.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/

Egh, betting odds aren't a great metric. 

And besides, Trump +6 is pretty poor for an incumbent during a time when the country should be uniting behind its leader. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Betting Odds are firmly Trump.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/

Egh, betting odds aren't a great metric.  

And besides, Trump +6 is pretty poor for an incumbent during a time when the country should be uniting behind its leader.  

For an impeached Russian agent who is both dumb and a criminal genius, and is also simultaneously in dementia, I would say those are very good betting odds for all of that.

Still, betting odds tell you what people think might happen, not necessarily the actual likelihood of an outcome.  There's an important separation (betting odds vs. voting intention polling)

For instance, I think Trump will win in November, but I won't be voting for him.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

There is no excuse why saloons are closed this long, there is no way you will catch a flu bug by doing someone's hair.  If that was the case, barbers would have died already. Nails and  Tattoos yes. Also, Libraries should be open, everyone dont have access to computers

 Humans have already been given shots flu, menegites,pneumonia shots.  But if they are concerned about homelessness

Saloons or salons?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

lol The Hill, Trump keeps on winning 51/49

The last 6 Harris X polls have been

49/51
46/54
50/50
48/52
50/50
51/49


They have been very favorable to Trump this past year. More so than Rasmussen. Regardless, that's why we have aggregates.

Also, an incumbent up two in a single output of a poll during a crisis against a lukewarm opponent is apparently "winning". 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

ABC News/Washington Post-

Approve: 45% (-3)
Disapprove: 53% (+7)

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/abc-news-coronavirus-poll

This forum would make you believe Trump's approval rating would be 21%.

It honestly should be. He's an objectively terrible president, but the Republican Party is 100% behind him.

99.999%, thank you. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Wake me up when the Gallup poll comes out. Three of their last four polls had Trump at a record high approval of around 49%. And even if these other polls are right, he would only be reverting to a 2019 mean. If this week is a trough for him, it'll still be higher than the Ukraine scandal trough as recently as October 2019.

I'm surprised we haven't seen Gallup's poll for the second half of May yet.  Normally I'd expect it to be released close to June 1.

Trump's current approval average on 538 is in the same general area as the Ukraine scandal trough.  It was in the -12 to -14 average then, with a low of -14.0.  Currently it's at -13.2.

Okay, GM.  Explain once again (and I can't be the only person who is confused about this): how and why does Morning Consult release widely differing polls on a semi-daily basis with different samples?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

RMG Research/Scott Rasmussen (not Rasmussen Reports), July 2-4, 1200 RV (change from mid-June)

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 58 (nc)

Strongly approve 27 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 47 (-2)

That’s the lowest level of approval yet measured in polling conducted by Scott Rasmussen.
...
Perhaps most concerning for the president is that support is slipping among Republicans. The latest results show that just 80% of those in his party offer their approval. That’s down slightly from 84% in mid-June.

I presume the reason we haven't been seeing many recent polls is because Indy Day, no, GM?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I don't understand why anyone expects the race to tighten. This is so far beyond the Dow Jones and unemployment rate at this point. Literally every other major country in the world is over the hump, but not the United States. We're lost in a dark tunnel with no light in sight.

Trump has failed catastrophically. I'm hearing word now that the Trump administration wants to just tell America that we need to just deal with the fact that COVID is here, and get used to 50,000 new cases and a rising death toll.

NOT saying I don't believe it (because...Trump), but do you have a preliminary source on that, WP?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

50-48 Rassy Hahahaha

First by-the-numbers poll showing positive approval for Trump since early May (if we exclude a tied poll during that sane time period), though Rassy and the Hill continue to be the only two non-tracking pollsters regularly showing a single-digit margin between Trump's approval/disapproval.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Reading this forum, you would think Donald Trump's approval ratings were at a steady 21%. I remember when Bush's got down that low in 2008. Now that was a bad approval rating.

Ah! ReaganFan is back!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Fox News, Aug. 9-12, 1000 RV (1-month change)

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 26 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+1)

Biden 49 (nc), Trump 42 (+1)

Interesting question: how committed are you to voting for (your candidate):

Biden supporters:
   Extremely 73
   Very 16
   Somewhat 10
   Not at all -

Trump supporters:
   Extremely 66
   Very 21
   Somewhat 12
   Not at all 1

I'm wary of these types of "all the time, a lot, frequently, sometimes, rarely, never"-type queries simply because the difference between someone who answered "very" and someone who answered "extremely" can be quite thin. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It’s almost like elections tighten as they near. Told you so (yet again).

If Trump has it so tight, he hasn't lead in a single poll and has lost every 278 state poll out there when it comes to MN, MI, PA and WI

Trump is in a stronger position than you think. He can afford to lose some states. Biden is the one who needs to flip them.

He can, but it depends on the states   Michigan? Arizona? Absolutely.  But there are a few states (particularly Florida and Pennsylvania) that, if flipped, will make re-election an uphill battle.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Blue Avatars think we are still in a 4 percent unemployment rate, Obama economy, which he raised taxes on the rich, v a 10 unemployment rate under Bush W and Trump, that cut taxes for the wealthy. Trump loses

Trump is in an even better spot. Record low unemployment, a spike to 16% due to the pandemic and not Trump’s fault, for half the year.

The pandemic, itself, is not Trump's fault.  But I think it's more complex than simply "we were doing well before COVID.  Besides the last six months, we've been doing great."

I think we here in our uber-political bubble sometimes overestimate how perceptive the average American is ("real Americans will know that it's not Trump's fault").  If Joe Schmo voter doesn't have a job because of the pandemic and is living paycheck-to-paycheck, it brings little comfort to him that unemployment is falling and that other people are going back to work. 

Now, there may not be enough Mr. Schmo's to make a major difference electorally.  But 2016 was a reminder how a relative few votes can swing things one way or the other. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Trump 48% Approval, Fox News

The race is tightening. If Trump can hold onto recent high approvals (upper 40s), he will win the EC. Game on.

You're citing one outlier as "recent high approvals." That outlier brought his average up to a low 43% for Trump on 538. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=irpromo

That said, 43% is certainly a "higher approval" compared to the 40% he had in the depths of COVID + George Floyd protests.

In fact, 43.1% approval (the 538 avg today) is the highest at any point in Trump's presidency (Trump also hit 43.1% on 538 on Sept. 24, 2019)

Record first-term approval less than two months from election day should be the cover story.  Yet, headlining the 538 page today is some speculative click-bait about what would happen if Trump refuses to leave office (how many times have we all read this article before?) 

Hmm? 538 showed he was over 45% in March when some people gave him credit for fighting COVID.

I was about to say: I'm sure I'm misreading you, Del Tachi, but Trump has definitely been higher than 43.1% on the 538 aggregate. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Oct. 11-13, 1500 RV including 1333 LV

RV:

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Strongly approve 26 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 49 (nc)

Biden 46 (nc), Trump 37 (-1)

GCB: D 43, R 37 (not asked last week)


LV:

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 57 (+2)

Strongly approve 27 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 50 (nc)

Biden 52 (+1), Trump 42 (nc)

GCB: D 49, R 41

Russian Bear! You're back!