European Elections 2009 (France)

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Le Pen 16.5

Wow. They underestimate Le Pen when he's going to be qualified, and overestimate him when he's beginning to die killed by Sarkozy...

CSA is made of fail naturally. But the pollsters used unholy weighting methods and toyed around with Le Pen numbers in an attempt to boost his numbers since they thought he'd poll like 16-20%.  All pollsters overestimated Le Pen, but CSA was the worst.

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Ifop poll in the Sud-Ouest

UMP 23.5% (pred. 3 seats)
PS 23% (pred. 3 seats)
MoDem 13% (pred. 1 seat)
Greenies 8.5% (pred. 1 seat)
Left 7% (pred. 0-1 seat if NPA doesn't get it)
NPA 7% (pred. 0-1 seat if Left doesn't get it)
FN 5.5%
Libertas 5%
AEI 3%
LO 2%
CNIP 1%
Other (FNd, AL, DLR) 1.5%

http://www.sudouest.com/fileadmin/documents/090517SOD.pdf

Some numbers look a bit fishy. For example- FN numbers in Aqutaine: 1%

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Ifop poll in the Sud-Ouest

UMP 23.5% (pred. 3 seats)
PS 23% (pred. 3 seats)
MoDem 13% (pred. 1 seat)
Greenies 8.5% (pred. 1 seat)
Left 7% (pred. 0-1 seat if NPA doesn't get it)
NPA 7% (pred. 0-1 seat if Left doesn't get it)
FN 5.5%
Libertas 5%
AEI 3%
LO 2%
CNIP 1%
Other (FNd, AL, DLR) 1.5%

http://www.sudouest.com/fileadmin/documents/090517SOD.pdf

Some numbers look a bit fishy. For example- FN numbers in Aqutaine: 1%

And the PS in Midi-Pyrénées, its strongest region in France with 18 %, on a par with MoDem and in comparison with 30 % in Aquitaine !!!
Bayrou's party would make only 12 % in Aquitaine.

Too few people questionned...

I think it's like 700 people. I don't know if the 700 are just 700 certain-to-vote people or 700 random voters, of which half are certain to vote.

Crosstabs are really ed up. Their samples in regions seem pretty ed up.

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Bayrou is doing a pretty good campaign in media, he's really on the line of the "follower of De Gaulle"

Oh, the irony. Oh, the irony.

But nobody cares.

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Bayrou is doing a pretty good campaign in media, he's really on the line of the "follower of De Gaulle"

Oh, the irony. Oh, the irony.

But nobody cares.

Actually he's pretty good in this role, and he's the only one who is heard in media until now.

He's good because he's a flip-flopper.

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Ipsos (best pollster)

UMP 28% (+1)
PS 22% (-1)
MoDem 11% (nc)
Greens 10% (nc)
NPA 7% (-2)
PCF-PG 5% (-1)
Libertas (MPF-CPNT) 6% (nc)
FN 5% (nc)
LO 2% (nc)
DLR 1% (nc)
All Others (MEI-GE, AL, PF, CNI) 3% (+1)

OpinionWay

UMP 28% (+1)
PS 21% (-1)
MoDem 13% (nc)
Greenies 10% (+1)
FN 6% (-1)
NPA 6% (-1)
Libertas 5.5% (+0.5)
PCF-PG 5% (nc)
LO 2% (nc)
AEI 2% (+1)
DLR 0.5% (-0.5)
Others 1%

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The MoDem will probably do slightly better than the UDF did in 2004, though not by that much (13-14% seems to be a good estimate). The profile of the MoDem voter (and today, UMP voter) seems to be the profile of the voter who will certainly vote in Euros. Though I believe that the composition of the MoDem's electorate in 2009 will be quite different from that of the UDF in 2004, despite polling in the same general area.

I think the surprise this election will be the PCF-PG. I have tendency to think that the "old" PCF has a better base with workers than the NPA. The French Trots have never had that huge of a base with workers, or if they do it's much smaller than one would expect. And Besancenot isn't widely popular with workers. That Socialist activist who yelled at him at a demonstration in Paris two-three days ago is a widespread sentiment, IMO. I think workers in difficulty don't like Besancenot showing up to exploit their difficulties and problems for his own personal political gain. Electorally, given the method of PR used here, the real threshold is actually 7% in most seats (France uses highest average and not d'Hondt or something). The NPA not getting any seats due to the PCF polling strongly, the LO acting as a spoiler, and a ton of other problems wouldn't surprise me much. Though I still think they'll get something.

I don't really think the FN will do that good, but neither will Libertas. Libertas should be happy with 2 seats, though falling to only one (the Viscount) is certainly possible.

Turnout will definitely play an important role in all this, and the low turnout which is the new norm in Euros obviously plays to the disadvantage of the FN and the NPA, though not the PCF since their old voter base has excellent turnout. If the PCF ends up ahead of the NPA, the NPA will have to blame poor turnout.

The Greenies probably won't do that well either. They certainly won't break the record for best Greenie record which is held by Antoine Egochter in 1989 (10.6%) and they would be lucky to do better than their 9.7% in 1999. The Greenies campaign hasn't been anything remarkable, far from it, and I don't think economic crises are prime time for Greenies in most places.

I don't think any of the small lists will surprise anyone. The plethora of angry raving Gaullists running here and there will fall flat on their faces. LO will poll 1 or 2 percent though these votes could certainly prevent the NPA from getting the final seat in a few constituencies, especially if the final seat is a close race. The Alliance of Raeliens, Scientologists, Eco-fascists and the Like will poll in the 1-2% range, and might steal enough votes from Greenies in some places to prevent them from getting a seat. The performance of the We Hate Marine Le Pen gang will be interesting, though they'll poll pretty badly due to poor name recognition, lack of structure/grassroots, and people not really knowing them (especially in the Nord-Ouest: voters will choose between Marine Le Pen, which they've heard of before and Carl Lang, who probably has 2/3 of voters having no clue who the fuck he is). The assorted Jew-haters will poll 1% and people will go back to ignoring them, rightfully.

It will be interesting to see the results obtained by EAJ and/or ETA Batasuna in the Basque Country and the Strollad Breizh in Bretagne. This is the first time in a long time we've had non-joke nats/regionalists running region-wide.

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A new Ifop poll for La Croix [the Catho newspaper] (May 15)

UMP 26% (-1%)
PS 21.5% (nc)
MoDem 14% (+0.5%)
Greenies 8% (+1%)
FN 7.5% (nc)
NPA 7.5% (+0.5%)
PCF-PG 6.5% (nc)
Libertas 5% (nc)
LO 2% (nc)
DLR not polled
Others 2% (nc)

But the most interesting thing here is the religious breakdown (obviously they have, since it's for La Croix!)

The Cathos (aka those who go to church often and stuff)

UMP 42%
PS 16%
MoDem 16%
Libertas 14%
Greenies 5%
FN 4%
NPA 1%
PCF-PG 0.5%
LO 0.5%
Others 1%

The officially Catholics

UMP 28%
PS 20%
MoDem 14%
FN 10.5%
Greenies 7.5%
NPA 6.5%
PCF-PG 4.5%
Libertas 4.5%
LO 2%
Others 2.5%

The HEATHENS! GODLESS LIBERALS!

PS 24.5%
UMP 16%
MoDem 13%
NPA 12%
Greenies 11%
PCF-PG 11%
FN 6%
LO 3%
Libertas 1%
Others 2.5%

In a February 2007 poll by Ifop for La Croix, the Cathos split 42% for Sarkozy, 18% for Bayrou, 16% for Royal, 16% for Le Pen, and 4% for de Villiers. Heathens split 33% for Royal, 16% each for Sarkozy and Bayrou, 11% for Le Pen, 6% for Besancenot, and 5% for Arlette. Nationally, the poll gave Sarko 28, Royal 27, Bayrou 18, Le Pen 12.

In a runoff which they polled to be 51-49 for Sarko, Cathos went 72-28 for Sarko and Heathens split 67-33 for Royal.

Amusing poll, and is all stuff dealing with religious practice and elections in France. A poll of Muslims would be amusing, and polls of Jews and Protestants (provided they find them) would be predictable but fun.

http://www.ifop.com/europe/docs/europeennes2009_7.pdf

Anyways, I updated by analysis. https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=89303.msg2003842#msg2003842

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LeMonde.fr reports this Ifop junk poll from May 16

UMP 29% (+3%)
PS 23.5% (+2%)
MoDem 12% (-2%)
Greenies 12% (+4%)
FN 6% (-1.5%)
NPA 5% (-2.5%)
PCF-PG 6% (-0.5%)
DLR 2%
Libertas 1.5% (-3.5%) wtflolwtf :?
LO 1% (-1%)
Others 2% (nc)

Ifop doesn't have this on its site, so I'm not sure if this is LeMonde being weird or if this crap is legitimate junk. But yeah, I wouldn't trust this. MPF at 1.5%? Behind the angry Gaullists?

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So, the various lists are, apart from the biggies.

NC: Supports UMP everywhere 'xcept DOM-TOM where they're running alone.
Royalists: Ouest, IdF, Centre, DOMTOM
Communists: an actual party, seems to be a Marxist-Leninist/Stalinist joke outfit led by a former angry lunatic PCF Senator from Paris. Everywhere save DOM-TOM
Europe décroissance: A bunch of people who favour negative economic growth. Go live in Niger or North Korea, kooks. Running everywhere save DOM-TOM.
CNI: The old CNI, once the main party of the Fourth Republic's right, it was destroyed by the Fifth Republic and Giscard's creation of the RIs in 1962. Supported FN in 1986, supported RPR-UMP until 2008. NW, SE, SW, IdF, DOM-TOM. Supports UMP in other places
Europe, démocratie, espéranto: Esperanto people, running everywhere as in 2004
FN dissidents: Carl Lang and his Party of France in Nord-Ouest (Lang's constituency) and Massif-Centre. Jean-Claude Martinez in Sud-Ouest.
Union des Gens: Anti-politician joke outfit, it seems
Rassemblement pour l'Initiative citoyenne: ?? See above, maybe.
Cannabis sans frontière in IdF: Marijuana people
La terre sinon rien in IdF: Tree-huggers
Europe de Gibraltar à Jérusalem in IdF: Probably some federalist thing
Pour une France et une Europe plus fraternelles in IdF: ??
Solidarité France in IdF: ?? With the name Solidarity, probably a bunch of lazy-ass communists.
Citoyenneté Culture Européennes in IdF: ??
Batasuna/ETA/Euskal Herriarien Alde: Sud-Ouest obviously
EAJ-PNB (Euskadi Europan): Sud-Ouest obviously.
Humanist Party: Humanist party thingee in a few places only.
Overseas Alliance: This is something to watch. Successor list to Verges' winning list Overseas in 2004. Led by Élie Hoarau, a former PCR deputy and includes Madeleine de Grandmaison (MEP since Verges resigned) and Gaston Tong Sang's party in Polynesia. Supprted by PCF-PG.

And my endorsement goes to: Strollad Breizh-Parti Breton: Ouest only.

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More CSA junk

UMP 26% (-2)
PS 21% (-1)
MoDem 14% (+1)
Greenies 9% (-1)
FN 7% (+1)
Libertas 6% (+1)
NPA 6% (+1)
Left 5% (+1)
AEI 2% (nc)
LO 1% (-1)
DLR 1% (nc)
turnout 46%

CSA is always overestimating the FN (16.5% for Le Pen in 2007, he got 10.4%), so discard that number. They've also decided to copy the numbers other pollsters have been getting for the other parties (their numbers for the PCF-PG now make some sense), though Libertas is too high.

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A new Ifop poll for La Croix [the Catho newspaper] (May 15)

UMP 26% (-1%)
PS 21.5% (nc)
MoDem 14% (+0.5%)
Greenies 8% (+1%)
FN 7.5% (nc)
NPA 7.5% (+0.5%)
PCF-PG 6.5% (nc)
Libertas 5% (nc)
LO 2% (nc)
DLR not polled
Others 2% (nc)

But the most interesting thing here is the religious breakdown (obviously they have, since it's for La Croix!)

The Cathos (aka those who go to church often and stuff)

UMP 42%
PS 16%
MoDem 16%
Libertas 14%
Greenies 5%
FN 4%
NPA 1%
PCF-PG 0.5%
LO 0.5%
Others 1%

The officially Catholics

UMP 28%
PS 20%
MoDem 14%
FN 10.5%
Greenies 7.5%
NPA 6.5%
PCF-PG 4.5%
Libertas 4.5%
LO 2%
Others 2.5%

The HEATHENS! GODLESS LIBERALS!

PS 24.5%
UMP 16%
MoDem 13%
NPA 12%
Greenies 11%
PCF-PG 11%
FN 6%
LO 3%
Libertas 1%
Others 2.5%

In a February 2007 poll by Ifop for La Croix, the Cathos split 42% for Sarkozy, 18% for Bayrou, 16% for Royal, 16% for Le Pen, and 4% for de Villiers. Heathens split 33% for Royal, 16% each for Sarkozy and Bayrou, 11% for Le Pen, 6% for Besancenot, and 5% for Arlette. Nationally, the poll gave Sarko 28, Royal 27, Bayrou 18, Le Pen 12.

In a runoff which they polled to be 51-49 for Sarko, Cathos went 72-28 for Sarko and Heathens split 67-33 for Royal.

Amusing poll, and is all stuff dealing with religious practice and elections in France. A poll of Muslims would be amusing, and polls of Jews and Protestants (provided they find them) would be predictable but fun.

http://www.ifop.com/europe/docs/europeennes2009_7.pdf

Anyways, I updated by analysis. https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=89303.msg2003842#msg2003842

Wow. I knew Cathos were more rightist than the average, but these numbers really stun me.
My great fear is that UMP could gradually transform itself in a GOP-type religioreactionary party.

Now, now, let's calm down, shall we.

These hardline Cathos are a tiny minority of French people, and at max a third of French Catholics. I have a hard time seeing the UMP becoming a Christian right party, firstly because no such thing has ever been close to a major party at any time in history, and because there are too few hardliners. And because, you know, secularism and the decline of Catholic practice.

You'll always get a few Christian rightists like Boutin or Pinte, but nowhere close to them becoming a very strong caucus a la GOP. If the UMP tried to become a Christian right party, which it won't obviously, there would be a major revolt within the party itself. Remember, the Rads, Gaullists, liberals and so forth. Even the CDS wing of the UMP isn't Christian right (far from it in fact).

He's not stupid : he knows that making Frenchs accept those sillinesses require time and tactics. But his "positive secularism" and his past speech are just scaring for true french secularist, and they announce a clearly new vision of religion by politicians.

Sarkozy is one politician. He's not the whole party (though it may seem like it).

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I have found the 1999 results calculated by constituency.

LO-LCR (5.18%)
SE: 4.5% / SW: 4.9% / W: 4.8% / NW: 6.3% / IdF: 5.5% / E: 5.3% / MC: 5%

Greenies (9.7%)
SE: 9.9% / SW: 8.7% / W: 10.4% / NW: 8% / IdF: 12.8% / E: 9.8% / MC: 8%

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Wow. I knew Cathos were more rightist than the average, but these numbers really stun me.
My great fear is that UMP could gradually transform itself in a GOP-type religioreactionary party.

Now, now, let's calm down, shall we.

These hardline Cathos are a tiny minority of French people, and at max a third of French Catholics. I have a hard time seeing the UMP becoming a Christian right party, firstly because no such thing has ever been close to a major party at any time in history, and because there are too few hardliners. And because, you know, secularism and the decline of Catholic practice.

You'll always get a few Christian rightists like Boutin or Pinte, but nowhere close to them becoming a very strong caucus a la GOP. If the UMP tried to become a Christian right party, which it won't obviously, there would be a major revolt within the party itself. Remember, the Rads, Gaullists, liberals and so forth. Even the CDS wing of the UMP isn't Christian right (far from it in fact).

I know, I know. You're right, but things change. There is apparently no reason to think it could be so, but some today's trends give me a bad feeling.

rofl. What trends? The only trend I'm seeing is the decline of religious practice and the decline of church-going Catholicism.

Sarkozy's words are nothing but words, since he knows that he can't do anything with secularism that won't create massive street demonstrations and party rebellions.

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Indeed.

According to an Ifop 2006 poll, 8.6% of people went to church atleast once a month.



The highest is, I think, 12% in Pays de la Loire (or is it Alsace?)

And in 1960, the people who usually go to church on Sundays. Not sure what is the average, but probably 30-40 ish.

Just to come back to the subject of this thread and to please Hash (not ideologically, just in electoral predictions and analyses):

Today, Laurent Joffrin, director of Libération, the leftist daily newspaper, writes his column on Mélenchon, "alternative" in this poll....

He asks "what's new in this campaign?" Mélenchon....

lulz. Isn't Joffrin the one who thinks France is going to become a monarchy?

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Do you remember a slogan of Sarko's campaign ( at the very beginning, before he claimed to "have changed" ). He often spoke about the "droite décomplexée".
Your sentence remembers me a lot of things. I was persuaded that it will happen if Sarkozy had applicated in his policies what he said about immigration. I was persuaded that never people will let him do this, because we're still able to oppose most silly government's projects. When he created his "national identity" minister, and when he began to apply a number policy without any human consideration, when I read every wednesday the column "l'expulsé de la semaine" of Charlie hebdo, I understood that Sarkozy didn't say what he said to provoke, and was intelligent enough to make french accept the unacceptable. So I'll fear everything he says untill he will leave the Elysée.

Don't mix the issue of immigration and religion. French people are probably quite conservative and they favour tough immigration controls. They may not like to hear about expulsions and the like, but I'm convinced voters favour tough immigration laws. Now, on the other hand, secularism is something a overwhelmingly huge majority of voters are attached to, partly because it's such an old thing and because it has become one of the so-called "republican" values.

I don't think people don't really care a whole lot if there are stricter immigration controls. But if somebody tried to change something about secularism, there would be outrage. Remember the 1994 demonstrations about the Falloux Law? And the Falloux Law was, put into perspective, an infinitely minor thing.

Your data are not really related with my point. I have absolutely nothing against Catholics, still nothing against practicing Catholics. The problem's here only with those ( it's a very small minority, but that changes nothing ) who consider that religion has a social and institutionnal role to play. These people are dangerous.

My data serves to prove that the influence of religion is declining in France, as if there was ever a question about that.

In 1960, much more people was catholic practicing, but secularism was still a quasi-sacred principle and an absolute consensus for every catholic. Now we have the Villiers, the Sarkozy, the Tillinac... But it isn't all. Because we also have the Tariq Ramadan, the Boubakeur and the Dieudonné. Because of our dear president, the islamist organisation UOIF now controls the French council of muslim cult ( but just why does CFCM exist ? doesn't it mean an institutionnalisation of Islam ? ). Political islam is at least as dangerous as political christianism today.
That is what I meant by trend. You're right : for the moment, there are almost only words. But words often foreshadow facts.

And secularism is not a quasi-sacred principle today?

De Villiers? Lol. He's an irrelevant joke. Even his little turf is losing interest in him. He can yell all he wants about family values and how awful gays are, but he's an irrelevant joke.

Sarkozy? Sarkozy isn't a religious conservative with an evil hidden agenda, as Math said. No offense intended, but thee might be a little too anti-Sarkozy to see things perfectly objectively. That said, nobody can be entirely objective, and certainly not me.

So what if there are 400,000 evangelical people in France? That's a infinitely small percentage of people. And if they do organize politically and join a major party, in this case the UMP, they'll be outnumbered massively. I still think France is taking the fight against religious extremism and sects pretty seriously.

The surprise in which I believe far more is the "Front de Gauche", the charisma of Mélenchon plus the base of old voters of PC that will go to vote, that could be a good cocktail. I easily imagine them in front of NPA and FN. And as I said several time, I think NPA don't really care about elections, they only bet the streets.

Still on this, I even think that, and especially in case of electoral success for "Front de Gauche", they could bury the PC and definitely merge PG and PC in this definitive Front de Gauche. Frankly that would be pretty interesting. And they could think that it gives them the advantage on NPA, which would be obviously wrong, given that, one more time, the only chance of far-left in France is the strategy of the street, and Mélenchon, who would lead that definitive Front de Gauche is worse than Besancenot in this strategy. But it can participate to make grow far-left noise in the country.

Aha, nice to see somebody picking up on my feeling about the PCF.

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Do you remember a slogan of Sarko's campaign ( at the very beginning, before he claimed to "have changed" ). He often spoke about the "droite décomplexée".
Your sentence remembers me a lot of things. I was persuaded that it will happen if Sarkozy had applicated in his policies what he said about immigration. I was persuaded that never people will let him do this, because we're still able to oppose most silly government's projects. When he created his "national identity" minister, and when he began to apply a number policy without any human consideration, when I read every wednesday the column "l'expulsé de la semaine" of Charlie hebdo, I understood that Sarkozy didn't say what he said to provoke, and was intelligent enough to make french accept the unacceptable. So I'll fear everything he says untill he will leave the Elysée.

Don't mix the issue of immigration and religion. French people are probably quite conservative and they favour tough immigration controls. They may not like to hear about expulsions and the like, but I'm convinced voters favour tough immigration laws. Now, on the other hand, secularism is something a overwhelmingly huge majority of voters are attached to, partly because it's such an old thing and because it has become one of the so-called "republican" values.

I don't think people don't really care a whole lot if there are stricter immigration controls. But if somebody tried to change something about secularism, there would be outrage. Remember the 1994 demonstrations about the Falloux Law? And the Falloux Law was, put into perspective, an infinitely minor thing.

I think to the contrary that attitude toward immigration changed a lot since Sarkozy became interior minister. Yes, secularism remains today a quite consensual value, but I won't treat him as a constant.

Why do you say that, out of curiosity?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

An irrilevant joke, but the seond of "little candidates" in 2007, and will rapidly grow where the FN will die as LO and LCR could gain some importance with the decline of PCF.

I disagree. I have yet to see any evidence of the MPF or de Villiers growing out of the FN's decline. Neither in polls nor in political attitudes. Quite to the contrary, in fact...

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Ipsos (best pollster)

UMP 26% (-2)
PS 20% (-2)
MoDem 13% (+2)
Greenies 10.5% (+0.5)
NPA 7% (nc)
Libertas (MPF-CPNT) 6% (nc)
FN 5.5% (+0.5)
PCF-PG 5% (nc)
LO 2% (nc)
DLR 1% (nc)
All Others (MEI-GE, AL, PF, CNI) 4% (+1)

Major parties always tend to drop in the last few days. IIRC, in 2004, the PS dropped from about 30-32% to 28-29% (its actual result) and the UMP dropped from 20-22% to 16-17% (actual result was 16.6%).

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You must be logged in to read this quote.

An irrilevant joke, but the seond of "little candidates" in 2007, and will rapidly grow where the FN will die as LO and LCR could gain some importance with the decline of PCF.

I disagree. I have yet to see any evidence of the MPF or de Villiers growing out of the FN's decline. Neither in polls nor in political attitudes. Quite to the contrary, in fact...[/quote]

Ipsos (best pollster)

UMP 26% (-2)
PS 20% (-2)
MoDem 13% (+2)
Greenies 10.5% (+0.5)
NPA 7% (nc)
Libertas (MPF-CPNT) 6% (nc)
FN 5.5% (+0.5)
PCF-PG 5% (nc)
LO 2% (nc)
DLR 1% (nc)
All Others (MEI-GE, AL, PF, CNI) 4% (+1)

Could you immagine MPF ahead of FN some years ago ?
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1. This is a poll (albeit a very good pollster). Let's wait for the results.
2. This is a Euro election. Half of the people won't bother to vote. And Euros are different from real elections, and Euros have huge swings, and so forth which make them poor samples for public mood swings.
3. The MPF alone polled 6.7% in 2004, 8.4% if you count CPNT.

Even if the MPF does gain FN voters, which probably isn't happening, FN voters are not hardline Cathos or religious voters, as filliatre pointed out a few months ago. He and I cringe at people who think the FN has a large religious hardliner base.

Anyways, the topic of this thread is European elections and not the future of religion in France and/or how we're all going to die. Mil gracias.

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AEI is GE formerly of Lalonde + MEI of Waechter + Francis Lalanne, a mad and out-of-date French singer).

And the scientologists/Raelians.

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Too bad for the DLR being the "surprising result" of the night (quoting NDA), eh?

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Ifop poll in IdF.

UMP 29%
PS 23.5%
Greenies 12%
MoDem 12%
FN 6%
Left 6%
NPA 5%
DLR 2%
Libertas 1.5%
LO 1%
Others 2% [CNI, scientologists, liberals, anti-zionist]

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PS: They still use the same "sociological" one since years and years now, good for their economy...

Ah, still the usual crap about l'Europe sociale and la république sociale (if only these idiots knew who else used the Social Republic... rofl). I'm surprised they haven't made total fools of themselves by being hypocrites by saying that the centre-right meanies voted the liberalization of public services (voted by the PS as well as the RPR-UDF-UMP).

Aubry looks bored. In the style "wtf am i doing here??!1?"

UMP: Unlike what they use to do, they give us here something that doesn't seem professional, bad done. Plus that's a lipdub in which all people have the words of the general secretary, Xavier Bertrand, in their mouth. Cool, that reinforce the idea we have of their democratic practices/debates...

Very 1984-like. Scary and weird (especially the female with the Bertrand voice). Though Xavier Bertrand's sweet little baby voice probably helps a bit with voters.

Modem: Bayrou.

Ah, the Hypocrites' Movement. The man who rants about Sarkozy's egocracy is creating an egocracy within the MoDem.

NC: Damn, that's awful, but that's suits very well with the image of Hervé Morin, it's a kind of thing which wanna be funny and modern, but which is just empty.

Didn't see it. Linky?

NPA: Well, nothing of particular, not especially good, not especially bad, just classical.

Boring Trot junk with the usual stupid rhetoric ("people before profit", "let's destroy the evil baby-eating capitalists!!11", "revolución!!!")

Front de Gauche!

Dynamic, modern, clear, well done, good music... one more argument for them...

They have stupid ideas, obviously, but this one is very well done and quite modern.

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Ifop poll in IdF.

UMP 29%
PS 23.5%
Greenies 12%
MoDem 12%
FN 6%
Left 6%
NPA 5%
DLR 2%
Libertas 1.5%
LO 1%
Others 2% [CNI, scientologists, liberals, anti-zionist]

Highest averages = fail.

UMP 5
PS 4
Greenies 2
MoDem 2

Anyways, I've devised a mathematical formula which gives the predicted votes for each constituency using a nationwide poll (aka applying a uniform swing). Using Ipsos, since all others are fail, but allowing 1.5 for the AEI, comparing DLR to the RPF, and lumping LO and Others together.

Ile-de-France
UMP 26.7% / 5
PS 17% / 3
MoDem 16.7% / 3
Greenies 10.6% / 1
NPA 7% / 1

Sud-Est
UMP 26.6% / 4
PS 19% / 3
MoDem 12.3% / 2
Greenies 11.1% / 1
FN 7.9% / 1
NPA 6.6% / 1
Libertas 5.6% / 1

Nord-Ouest
UMP 22.2% / 3
PS 21.3% / 3
MoDem 11.8% / 1
Greenies 9.9% / 1
FN 8.6% / 1
Libertas 6.5% / 1

Sud-Ouest
UMP 24.1% / 3
PS 21.2% / 3
MoDem 13.7% / 2
Greenies 11.4% / 1
NPA 7.1% / 1

Ouest
UMP 26.8% / 3
PS 23.5% / 3
MoDem 12.2% / 1
Libertas 12% / 1
Greenies 10.8% / 1

Est
UMP 26.5% / 4
PS 18.8% / 2
MoDem 12.9% / 1
Greenies 9.5% / 1
FN 7.9% / 1
NPA 7% / 1

Massif-Centre
UMP 29.3% / 2
PS 21.6% / 2
MoDem 10.4% / 1

Outre-Mer
The calculus says UMP 34.2% (2), PCR 28% (1). But no. I'll predict same as 2004.

UMP 24
PS 20
MoDem 11
Greenies 6
NPA 4
FN 3
Libertas 3
PCR 1

This is in no way my prediction, for obvious reasons.

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NC: Damn, that's awful, but that's suits very well with the image of Hervé Morin, it's a kind of thing which wanna be funny and modern, but which is just empty.

Didn't see it. Linky?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxs-4TegOtY

This Elise seems to be very cool, she never gets old...

Not too bad, but I have the impression that Morin's voice is not in sync with the film.