European Elections 2009 (France)

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TNS-Sofres wave 2

UMP 26% (nc)
PS 20% (+1)
MoDem 13% (-1)
Greens 11% (nc)
PCF-PG 7% (nc)
NPA 6% (nc)
FN 6% (nc)
Libertas 4.5% (+0.5)
LO 2.5% (+0.5)
AEI 1.5% (nc)
DLR 0.5% (nc)
Others 2% (-1)

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The parties of the Center-Left at 48% ?

Nice.

Sadly.

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The parties of the Center-Left at 48% ?

Nice.

Yep, the whole right is regularly poll at about 36% these days. That's something. Though that are just European elections.

How many MoDem voters actually voted for Sarkozy against Royal ?

Were there any exit polls ?

Someone please update my memory ...

Hashemite would certainly have polls to carry you. From what I remember from analysts at the time, they gave 1/3 of Modem for Sarkozy, 2/3 for Royal. Something which seems pretty relevant.

Most certainly not 67-33 for Royal. The people who said such stupidities and inanities deserve to be shot.

More like 40-40, with slightly more for Royal.

EDIT: Yes, 40-40, with 20% not voting.

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The 40-40 data comes from Sofres.

40-38 is closer to reality.

66-38 is data for UDF voters and undoubtedly includes people who now vote NC/UMP or who voted for Sarkozy by April 22.

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66-38 is data for UDF voters and undoubtedly includes people who now vote NC/UMP or who voted for Sarkozy by April 22.

Yes, different composition/turnout of the UDF-crowds in the 2 rounds might explain the discrepancy ...

These polls are self-ID, so there's a very good chance that some voters still identifying as UDF voted for the UMP in both rounds. The real sample in this analysis is the sample which voted for Bayrou on April 22, and not the UDF sample.

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OpinionWay in IdF

UMP 29%
PS 18%
Greens 13%
MoDem 12%
PCF-PG 6%
NPA 5%
FN 5%
Libertas 4%
AEI 2%
DLR 1%
LO 1%
Others 4%

Seats

UMP 5
PS 3
Greens 2
MoDem 2
PCF-PG 1

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CSA went to the bathroom and took a crap. This came out.

UMP 25% (-1)
PS 21% (nc)
MoDem 13% (-1)
Greens 9% (nc)
FN 8% (+1)
Libertas 6% (nc)
PCF-PG 6% (+1)
NPA 5% (-1)
AEI 2% (nc)
LO 2% (+1)
DLR 1% (nc)
Others 2%

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Ifop

UMP 27% (nc)
PS 21% (-0.5)
MoDem 13% (-0.5)
Greens 9.5% (+2.5)
PCF-PG 7% (+0.5)
NPA 7% (nc)
Libertas 6% (nc)
FN 6% (-1.5)
LO 1% (-1)
DLR 1% (-1)
Others 2.5% (+0.5)

Abstention estimated at 63%

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OpinionWay

UMP 26% (-2)
PS 20% (-1)
MoDem 13% (nc)
Greens 10% (nc)
FN 7% (+1)
Libertas 6% (+0.5)
NPA 6% (nc)
PCF-PG 5% (nc)
AEI 2.5% (+0.5)
LO 1% (-1)
DLR 0.5% (nc)

http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/oway-europeennes4.pdf


BVA seems to be jealous of CSA's crap polling

UMP 26%
PS 21.5%
Greens 11%
MoDem 11%
FN 8.5%
NPA 6.5%
PCF-PG 6%
Libertas 4.5%

http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2009/06/02/01011-20090602FILWWW00625-sondage-26-pour-l-ump-le-ps-a-215.php

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then why would the commentators of the epoch have gone in a 1/3 2/3 analysis. That said it stuck enough strongly in my mind, I wonder why...

Because they're French journalists and French journalists aren't very smart. To say the least.

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Full results of TNS-Sofres (sample 1000 - quite small)

UMP 27% (+1) (270)
PS 20% (nc) (200)
Greens 13.5% (+2.5) (135)
MoDem 11% (-2) (110)
PCF-PG 6.5% (-0.5) (65)
NPA 5.5% (-0.5) (55)
FN 4% (-2) (40)
Libertas 4% (-0.5) (40)
LO 2.5% (nc) (25)
AEI 2% (+0.5) (20)
DLR 1% (+0.5) (10)
Others 3% (+1) (30)

Did not express voting intentions 32% (320 people)

62% certain of their choice. BUT: only 53% of Greenies, 55% of MoDem, 56% of NPA. UMP is most solid at 81%

2nd prefs (tag this for any STV simulation!)

NPA: PS 24, PCF 20, Greenies 17, N/A 12, LO 9, MD 8, MPF 4, AEI 2, Others 2, UMP 2
PCF-PG: PS 30, N/A 28, LO 16, NPA 14, Greenies 5, Others 5, MD 2
PS: Greenies 27, N/A 17, PCF 13, MD 13, NPA 11, LO 8, UMP 5, AEI 3, MPF-Others-FN 1 each
Greenies: PS 33, N/A 17, MD 12, NPA 9, PCF 7, AEI 6, Others 6, UMP 6, LO 3, FN 1
MoDem: Greenies 21, N/A 20, UMP 19, PS 18, NPA 9, MPF 6, AEI 3, FN 2, PCF 1, DLR 1
UMP-NC: N/A 36, MD 24, Greenies 15, Others 7, AEI 6, PS 4, NPA 2, FN 2, MPF 2, LO 1, DLR 1

Motivators: Education 40, Buying power 39, Environment 38, Unemployment 37, Crisis in financeland 34, social stuff 31, social protection/welfare 28, EU 20, Insecurity 20, EU borders [aka Turkey] 15, immigration 13, agriculture 11

http://www.tns-sofres.com/_assets/files/2009.06.04-baro-europ2009-v3.pdf

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#4: Some noises speak about an eventual creation of a "France écologie" party that would replace "Les verts".

Such a party would be Les Verts version 2.0, just as the NPA is effectively LCR version 2.0

Anyways, stuff to look out for (specifically on maps). These are not questions, nor are they predictions

1. The UMP's results compared to Sarkozy's April 2007 result. Where are the major gains, loses, stagnations.
2. The PS' results compared to Euros 1999. They'll poll roughly the same, PS2009 slightly lower.
3. Nationally, who wins the Greenie-MoDem battle.
4. Nationally, who wins the NPA-PCF battle.
5. Nationally, does the NPA get any seats (if they're really at 5%, then they could potentially be shut out due to the PR method - highest averages - which informally jacks up the threshold to 6-7% in IdF and up to 10% in Massif/Centre).
6. The NPA-LO's results compared to Euros 1999 (LO-LCR common lists).
7. The Greenies results compared to Euros 1989 (Waechter list) and Euros 1999 (Greenies lists). Especially the former.
8. Do the old CPNT maps reflect on the Libertas map - or is it another His Excellency in Vendee map.
9. Nationally, the abstention which will hit 60% - 65% is also a possibility.
10. The MoDem map compared to the old Christian democracy maps (MRP, UDF). This is the first election where the MoDem's map will mean something.
11. Small parties are always fun. Especially the regionalists in Bretagne and Euskadi - their support patterns will be interesting.
12. The results in those towns that have been in the news due to factory closures - Clairoix, Gandrange etc. Remind me of the others, please.
13. Especially the results of the NPA and PCF in those towns. And the NPA's performance in highly blue collar areas and the NPA's performance in PCF industrial land.
14. If any oddities on the PCF map can be explained by the PG (probably not, but still).
15. Where the FN votes stays relatively stable vis-a-vis 2004/2007 as opposed to massive drops.

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Ipsos

UMP 27% (+1)
PS 21% (nc)
Greens 11% (nc)
MoDem 11% (-1)
NPA 6.5% (-0.5)
PCF-PG 6% (+0.5)
Libertas 6% (nc)
FN 5.5% (nc)
LO 1.5% (nc)
AEI 1.5% (-0.5)
DLR 1% (+0.5)
Others 2% (nc)

Turnout estimate: 38-42%
Declared turnout: 49% (lol liars)

http://www.ipsos.fr/CanalIpsos/poll/8614.asp

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Does anyone see the Greens replacing the Communists as the largest leftwing party in France after the PS? 

As the second-largest party in France, probably not for some time. The Greenie electorate is very volatile - they can easily go PS when need be (the most moderate ones can obviously for MoDem) and reduce the Greenies to a joke party. The PCF has a relatively entrenched parliamentary and local caucus (the Greenies have like 10-20 councillors nationally, the PCF way more), strong personal votes for incumbents, and their small electorate is way more solid than the Greenie electorate. So, probably the Greenies and PCF fighting eternally for the second-largest leftie party for a number of years to come.

Though I'll say the Greenies have a more promising future than the PCF because the PCF voter has a much higher average age than the Green voter. And green politics have a better future than REVOLUTION!111/communist politics.

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BVA is crap, but they have regional breakdowns

UMP 26%
PS 21.5%
Greens 11%
MoDem 11%
FN 8.5% (rofl)
NPA 6.5%
PCF-PG 6%
Libertas 4.5%

http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2009/06/02/01011-20090602FILWWW00625-sondage-26-pour-l-ump-le-ps-a-215.php

North West

UMP 23%
PS 22%
MoDem 11%
NPA 9%
FN 9%
Greens 8%
PCF-PG 5%
LO 5%
Libertas 5%
AEI 1%
Carl Lang 1%
Others 1%

East

UMP 24%
PS 20%
FN 15%
MoDem 10%
Greens 9%
NPA 7%
PCF-PG 6%
Libertas 5%
LO 1.5%
AEI 1.5% lol @ Waechter
Others 1%

IDF

UMP 30.5%
PS 18%
Greens 16%
MoDem 11%
PCF-PG 7%
FN 5%
NPA 3%
Libertas 3%
AEI 2%
LO 1%
DLR 1%
Anti-Zionist 0.5%
Others 2%

Massif Central-Centre

UMP 27%
PS 23%
Greens 11%
MoDem 10%
FN 9%
NPA 6%
PCF-PG 6%
Libertas 3%
AEI 2%
LO 1%
Others 2%

West

PS 24%
UMP 22%
MoDem 16%
Greens 12%
Libertas 7%
NPA 6%
FN 5%
PCF-PG 3%
LO 2%
AEI 1%
Others 2%

South East

UMP 29%
PS 22%
FN 9.5%
Greens 9%
MoDem 8.5%
Libertas 7%
PCF-PG 6%
NPA 5.5%
LO 1.5%
AEI 1%
Others 1%

South West

UMP 24%
PS 21%
MoDem 12%
Greens 11%
FN 8%
NPA 8%
PCF-PG 6%
Libertas 3%
LO 2%
AEI 2%
Others 1%

Other stuff: 2-way race UMP-PS

PS 49%
UMP 36%
NOTA 12%

MoDem: 50 PS/30 UMP/19 NOTA
Greenies: 62 PS/23 UMP/14 NOTA
Mildly amusing tiny LO sample: 65 PS/28 UMP/6 NOTA

Government voting motivations (June 9 2004 in brackets)

Will not vote based on government 51% (16%)
Oppose 24% (46%)
Support 20% (26%)

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Does anyone see the Greens replacing the Communists as the largest leftwing party in France after the PS? 

Personally no. Front de Gauche or NPA, but not Greens, they are too much on a tie with Modem to become that big, and they become more center-left than left it seems.

Don't forget one thing: political parties are financed with public money, for a large part. And the money goes were the elected politicians are. So, it's hard to grow outside an already entrenched party in the Parliament.
So, the PS is here for a long time, I think.

Yes, yes, but his question concerned communists and the force coming "after the PS".

Poorly worded question, but here is what I am trying to say: the Socialists and the UMP are the largest mainstream parties in France.  The Communists have long been the third largest.  According to my understanding, the UMP represents the center-right; the PS the center-left; and the Communists represent the more radical left.  Jean Le Pen and his supporters are occupy the more radical right of this spectrum.  Given the polls here, it seems as if the Communists are imploding somewhat, with Greens surging at their expense.  So, my question to you all was this: does it look as if the Greens are going to overtake the Communists as the largest party on the radical left?

Hope that clears things up....

The PCF has not really be imploding this campaign, but they've been dying out slowly since 1981 and they're only surviving because of mutual electoral deals with the PS. This used to be a big deal for both PS and PCF when the PCF got into the second round in a lot of seats, but now it's mainly designed to save a Commie caucus.



The Greenies have a very volatile electorate, and it is very hard for them to make lasting gains. As I said, many of those can very easily vote PS. And the Greenies have no real socio-economic base: the PS-PCF have manual workers, the PS has teachers and lower middle-class people, the right has liberal arts people and farmers etc. The PCF has a small but statistically stable electorate.

The PCF now goes into periods of steady decline (cf: 1997-2007) and minor gains on the back of a weak and divided PS (cf: 1992-1997, 2009- ).

The Greenies won't overtake the PCF as the second party of the left in the next few years.

     From my understanding of French politics, Les Verts would really be considered center-left more than radical left.

When people such as Waechter, Lalonde, Wehrling were still Greenies, then yes. But now that it's the party of Mamere, Lipietz, Voynet, the Greenies have become like the Portuguese Green Party (in perpetual coalition with Commies) or a Greener version of the Portuguese Bloco de Esquerda (libertarian radical left).

Moderate greenies have moved from being Green supporters in the Waechter day (1989-1993) to supporting the MoDem or moving into irrelevancy into the UMP or PS.

Anyways, as fab said, the Greenies don't protect the little birds anymore.

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May the fun commence!

Fillon, Sarkozy, Bruni (voting right-wing for the first time in her life, apparently), the Drug Addict, Aubry, Bayrou have all voted.

Turnout at noon was 14.81% (13.62% in 2004)

In the Atlantic Section, turnout is lower than in 2004:

-Saint-Pierre et Miquelon : 21,35 %  contre 18,25 en 2004
-Guyane : 12,59 %  contre 14,39 en 2004
-Guadeloupe : 14,61 % y compris Saint-Barth et Saint-Martin) contre
15,28% en 2004
-Martinique : 13,83 % contre 17,95 en 2004

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http://www.lemonde.fr/elections-europeennes/portfolio/2009/06/07/les-personnalites-politiques-votent-pour-les-europeennes_1203573_1168667.html

Picture 1 is especially funny. You would think that Carla votes Green and that Sarko votes Libertas.

For those who want live streaming, France2 starts at 19:45 local time, LCP has something too (I don't know if there's live streaming), France3, TF1-LCI, I-Tele probably all have stuff too.

Exit polls at 20:00 local time, as per usual. That is 14:00EST.

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Cool little AFP visuals:

http://info.france3.fr/elections/europeennes-2009/resultats/france/

http://info.france3.fr/elections/europeennes-2009/resultats/europe/

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Hmmm... what to watch?

France2's stupidity will probably piss me off. I don't know.

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ITele fail:

"Bayrou voted in Pau, Pyrenees-Orientales"

Epic geography fail.

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I'm at the Modem office, and very happy to see all these frustrated faces :-)

Hopefully those useless hypocrites get trounced.

War-raok Breizh, war-raok Strollad Breizh!

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http://www.lemonde.fr/elections-europeennes/portfolio/2009/06/07/les-personnalites-politiques-votent-pour-les-europeennes_1203573_1168667.html

Picture 1 is especially funny. You would think that Carla votes Green and that Sarko votes Libertas.

Wow, French elections waste a lot of paper.

In Euro elections, the parties must print their ballots. A lot of the smaller parties tell you to print them online and cut them out according to regulations.

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http://www.lemonde.fr/elections-europeennes/portfolio/2009/06/07/les-personnalites-politiques-votent-pour-les-europeennes_1203573_1168667.html

Picture 1 is especially funny. You would think that Carla votes Green and that Sarko votes Libertas.

Wow, French elections waste a lot of paper.

Actually, compared to a lot of other countries, I think with have the smallest voting papers...

Yes, but in other countries, all parties are one paper. In France, you have small papers for each party. It's a waste.

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God. SEVEN minutes!