French regional election - December 6 and 13, 2015

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Another defection from EELV today, in fact, again related to alliances (EELV has voted in favour of an alliance with Mémélenchon's folks in the Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie, where the left will therefore be divided between 3 lists) - Stéphane Gatignon, ironically ex-PCF, mayor of Sevran (93).

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Here's a fresh poll for NPDC-P

First round scenarios

Panzergirl (FN) 34%
Bertrand (Right) 28%
PS-PRG 18%
EELV-PG-ND 10%
PCF 5%
DLF 2.5%
LO 2%
PFE 0.5%

Panzergirl (FN) 35%
Bertrand (Right) 28%
PS-PRG 17%
PCF-PG 9%
EELV 5%
DLF 3%
LO 2%
PFE 1%

Panzergirl (FN) 35%
Bertrand (Right) 30%
United left 28%
DLF 3%
LO 3%
PFE 1%

Runoff

Panzergirl (FN) 35%
Bertrand (Right) 33%
PS-PRG-PCF-PG-EELV 32%

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A national poll is out, but these things are silly and useless because of the nature of these elections, although I guess you can argue they give a quick somewhat accurate picture of how things stand generally:

'Républicains'-UDI-MoDem 35%
FN 26%
PS 23%
FG 7%
EELV 3%
DLF 3%
EXG 2%

Of much greater worth, Ifop has released polls for two big regions:

Ile-de-France:
Pécresse (Right) 32% > 40%
Bartolone (PS-PRG) 24% > 39%
Saint-Just (FN) 18% > 21%
Laurent (FG) 9.5%
Cosse (EELV) 7.5%
NDA (DLF) 7%
Arthaud (LO) 1%
Asselineau (UPR) 1%

Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes:
Wauquiez (Right) 35% > 39%
Queyranne (PS-PRG) 26% > 37%
Boudot (FN) 22% > 24%
Kolhaas (EELV-PG-ND) 10%
Cukierman (PCF) 4%
DLF 1.5%
LO 1%
Oth. 0.5%

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Languedoc-Roussillon-Midi-Pyrénées (Ifop, 8-12 Oct.)

L. Aliot (FN) 28%
D. Reynié (Right) 25%
C. Delga (PS-PRG) 20%
G. Onesta (EELV-FG) 11%
P. Saurel (Dvg) 8%
C. Cavard (ex-EELV) 2.5%
DLF 2%
ND 2%
UPR 1%
LO 0.5%

C. Delga (PS-PRG) 38%
D. Reynié (Right) 32%
L. Aliot (FN) 30%

PACA (Odoxa, 12-16 Oct.)

Panzermiss (FN) 35%
C. Estrosi (Right) 30%
C. Castaner (PS) 18%
S. Camard (EELV-FG) 10%
DLF 2%
ND 2%
LO 1.5%
J. Bompard (LDS) 1%
UPR 0.5%

Panzermiss (FN) 37%
C. Estrosi (Right) 34%
C. Castaner (PS) 29%

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BVA has apparently polled all regions, which is quite nice, even if it's not the best pollster.

Alsace-Champagne-Ardenne-Lorraine

Philippe Richert (LR-UDI-MoDem) 31% - incumbent president, Alsace
Florian Philippot (FN) 30%
Jean-Pierre Masseret (PS-PRG) 19% - incumbent president, Lorraine
Patrick Perron (FG) 7%
Sandrine Bélier (EELV) 6%
Unser Land 3%
DLF 2.5%
LO 1%
UPR 0.5%

Philippe Richert (LR-UDI-MoDem) 37%
Florian Philippot (FN) 33%
Jean-Pierre Masseret (PS-PRG) 30%

Aquitaine-Limousin-Poitou-Charentes

Alain Rousset (PS-PRG) 36% - incumbent president, Aquitaine
Virginie Calmels (LR-UDI-MoDem) 30%
Jacques Colombier (FN) 20%
Olivier Dartigolles (PCF) 5%
Françoise Coutant (EELV) 5%
DLF 2%
FD 1%
LO 1%

Alain Rousset (PS-PRG) 46%
Virginie Calmels (LR-UDI-MoDem) 33%
Jacques Colombier (FN) 21%

Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes

Laurent Wauquiez (LR-UDI-MoDem) 35%
Jean-Jack Queyranne (PS-PRG) 24% - incumbent president, R-A
Christophe Boudot (FN) 21.5%
Jean-Charles Kolhaas (EELV-PG-ND) 8.5%
Cécile Cukierman (PCF) 7%
DLF 2%
LO 2%

Laurent Wauquiez (LR-UDI-MoDem) 40%
Jean-Jack Queyranne (PS-PRG) 37%
Christophe Boudot (FN) 23%

Bourgogne-Franche-Comté

François Sauvadet (UDI-LR) 31%
Sophie Montel (FN) 26%
Marie-Guite Dufay (PS-PRG-Cap21/Ecolos) 19% - incumbent president, Franche-Comté
FG-Ensemble-MRC-ND 8%
Christophe Grudler (MoDem) 6%
Cécile Prudhomme (EELV) 5%
DLF 3%
LO 2%

François Sauvadet (UDI-LR) 36%
Marie-Guite Dufay (PS-PRG-Cap21/Ecolos) 34%
Sophie Montel (FN) 30%

Breizh

Marc Le Fur (LR-UDI-MoDem) 30%
Jean-Yves Le Drian (PS-PRG) 26% - former president, defence minister
Gilles Pennelle (FN) 16%
Christian Troadec (Oui, la Bretagne/MBP-UDB) 9%
René Louail (EELV) 7%
FG 4%
DLF 2.5%
RCB 2%
PB-Separatists 1%
LO 1%
Breizhistance-NPA 1%
UPR 0.5%

Jean-Yves Le Drian (PS-PRG) 46%
Marc Le Fur (LR-UDI-MoDem) 36%
Gilles Pennelle (FN) 18%

I'll continue the rest of the regions at some other time.

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Christian Estrosi, the "Republican" candidate in PACA, has reached an unparalleled level of idiocy - even taking account that Estrosi has always been a moron and that this is a party with some of the dumbest people alive: http://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/elections-regionales-2015-christian-estrosi-veut-interdire-le-sigle-paca-7780400403

In short, this idiot wants to ban the use of the abbreviation 'PACA' in administrative document, impose a fine on people who pronounce 'PACA' and he concludes by saying that while some think the region should be called 'French California' he thinks that it's rather Californians who dream of being called Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur.

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Guys, this thread is garbage.

I wonder if European media will be so aggressive towards France as they were after victory of PiS  in parliamentary elections in Poland. FN nowadays is rather not radical, typical  right-wing big tent (even with centre-right elements) but of coarse there will be a lot of left-liberal butthurt.

Please don't talk about things you clearly know very little or nothing about. It looks bad.

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   I wonder if this electoral debacle for the Socialists will encourage them to push through a change to proportional representation for National Assembly elections. IIRC that's what happened during Mitterand's first term, when to avoid a total electoral debacle in the 1986 National Assembly elections, PR was introduced.

I think they did PR back in 1986 and FN got a bunch of MPs and nearly led to a hung legislature with FN holding the balance of power.  So the "establishment" worked to change it back to the two round system for 1988.   Neither the PS nor the main center-right parties will go for this.  They both benefit from this system at the second round.

Stop posting nonsense. The right, not a mystical evil 'establishment' the fascists fantasize about, changed the electoral system after the 1986 because they had never supported switching the electoral system in the first place (for good reason, sine Mitterrand changed the electoral system not because of the good of his heart but to hurt the right's chances).

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A few polls for the runoff:

NPDCP (TNS-Sofres)
Bertrand 53%
Panzergirl 47%

Unrealistically good transfers from the left to right (77, only 14% abstaining).

PACA (TNS-Sofres)
Estrosi 54%
Panzermiss 46%

Again, unrealistically good transfers for the right (same numbers as above in fact).

PACA (Odoxa)
Estrosi 52%
Panzermiss 48%

More balanced and realistic transfers in this one, but still better than expected for the right - 34/7/59 for the non-PS left, 57/4/39 for the PS. Also reports that a substantial number of first round non-voters could vote and they break well for the right.

NPDCP (Odoxa)
Bertrand 52%
Panzergirl 48%

Some unrealistically good transfers to Bertrand from the non-PS left (47/11/42 for FG, 51/0/49 for EELV), but realistic (and still good) transfers from the PS itself (50/7/43). Again, a substantial number of first round non-voters could vote and they break well for the right.

PACA (Harris)
Estrosi 51%
Panzermiss 49%

Balanced and realistic transfer expectations again - 54/1/45 from the PS, 46/3/51 from EELV.

PACA (Ifop)
Estrosi 52%
Panzermiss 48%

Balanced and realistic transfer expectations, though a bit stronger than expected from the PS (59/7/34).

ARA (Ifop)
Wauquiez 38%
Queyranne 37%
Boudot 25%

Surprisingly close given Wauquiez's first round success here, but the transfer expectations from the hard left to the PS seem very unrealistically high (81/10/0/9 from EELV-PG and 94/4/0/2 from FG).

IDF (Odoxa)
Pécresse 42%
Bartolone 40%
Saint-Just 18%

Good but insufficient support from the FG/EELV for Bartolone - 66/5/4/25; furthermore, NDA's support is breaking well for Pécresse (8/44/10/38), and the pollster reports that 13% of first round FN voters support the right in this scenario.

IDF (ELABE)
Bartolone 41.5%
Pécresse 41%
Saint-Just 17.5%

On the other hand, in this poll, FG and EELV votes are splitting very well (probably too well) for Bartolone - 77/9/2/12 from FG, 72/12/5/11 from EELV; NDA's voters are more divided in this poll (13/36/24/27).

ALCA (ELABE)
Richert 43%
Philippot 41%
Masseret 16%

In this poll, Masseret's own voters are basically evenly split between supporting him again on Sunday or voting for the right (49/46/2/3), EELV (which won over 6%) is predominantly going for Richert (47%) over the PS (33%), but the PS gets some support from the weak FG list (3%) which reportedly splits 68/9/0/23. DLF also splitting favourably for the right (3/54/22/21).

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An old worthwhile analysis from Ifop to read these days, dealing with FN gains from round to round in the spring's departmental elections. To summarize, the FN made the following gains (or loses) in the 2015 departmental elections, on average, in cantons where the party was qualified and present in the second round:

Left/FN 2-ways (duels): +9.5%
Right/FN 2-ways (duels): +5.4%
Triangulaires (3-ways): -2.1% -- incl.
37 triangulaires with FN first: -0.2%
96 triangulaires with FN second: -1.5% (and, where right first: -2%; where left first: -0.8%)
121 triangulaires with FN third: -3.3%

This table included in their analysis was also interesting:



Basically, this data should help temper overly bullish predictions of a FN sweep in the runoff. It's entirely within the realm of possibilities that after all the mass pandemonium, we'll end up with 0 FN regional presidencies.

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Not extremely surprising, except perhaps the scale of some FN defeats. Anybody who has studied French elections at a more than cursory level could have told you that; unfortunately, journalists covering French elections are mostly idiots who have bought in to the trash pop analysis of the FN/French electoral politics (which is scarily prevalent in this very thread).

I like the results in Corsica. It's nice to see the slimy old leftist and rightist dynasties kicked out for a change.

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The Ministry has results by constituency and canton for the first round available on the government's open data website, albeit in a very hard to manoeuvre Excel file which takes lots of patience and time to work with. I put together a leading party by constituency map, and I hope to do some vote strength map for the largest parties.

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What's happening in Guyane, Reunion etc?

Guyane and Martinique held elections, but they were elections to 'assemblies' rather than regional councils, since both of them are now 'collectivité territoriale uniques' (single/unique territorial collectivities), that is a single level merging the former regional councils and general councils. Incidentally, Corse is also moving towards this status by 2018, which means that there will be early regional elections on the island sometime before then.

Guyane

Rodolphe Alexandre (DVG) 42.34% > 54.55%
Alain Tien-Long (DVG) 30.24 > 45.45%
Chantal Berthelot (PSG) 8.49%
Line Létard (Walwari) 7.1%
Fabien Canavy (MDES) 5.71%
Rémy Louis Budoc (LR-UDI) 3.08%
Muriel Icaré Nourel (DVD) 1.59%
Jean-Marie Taubira (DVG) 0.97%
Sylvio Létard (Reg) 0.48%

abst: 57.4% >53.4%

Incumbent president Rodolphe Alexandre (DVG) was reelected with 54.6% against 45.4% for Alain Tien-Liong (DVG), the president of the general council. Rodolphe Alexandre, the former mayor of Cayenne (2008-2010), had been elected to the regional presidency in 2010 as the UMP candidate (defeating Christiane Taubira), but generally lacks any clear partisan or ideological anchors (this is overseas French politics, after all) and his majority includes factions of both the left and right. This year, Alexandre was supported by the national PS, not to be confused with the Guyanese Socialist Party (PSG), led by Antoine Karam (former president of the CR and now senator), which had its own candidate in the first round, Chantal Berthelot, one of Guyane's two deputies. Alain Tien-Liong was a member of the MDES, a 'separatist' party, but that party rejected his alliance strategy and ran their own candidate. The LR-UDI had their own candidate, a nobody, but convicted felon Léon Bertrand, the main figure of the right in Guyana, supported Tien-Liong. The Walwari, which is Christiane Taubira's party, had their own candidate (Line Létard), and Taubira was in 11th spot on the list for the Cayenne section.

Martinique

Serge Letchimy (PPM-PS-BPM-PCM-MPF)* 38.96%
Alfred Marie-Jeanne (MIM-RDM-Palima-PRM) 30.28%
Yan Monplaisir (LR-MoDem) 14.32%
Marcellin Nadeau (Modemas) 6.34%
Nathalie Jos (DVG) 3.21%
Joseph Virassamy (DVD) 2.05%
Ghislaine Joachim-Arnaud (CO-LO) 2.04%
Philippe Petit (UDI) 1.51%
Daniel Gromat (EXG) 1.29%

Alfred Marie-Jeanne (MIM-RDM-Palima-PRM + LR-MoDem) 54.14%
Serge Letchimy (PPM-PS-BPM-PCM-MPF)* 45.86%

abst: 58.8% > 47.6%

A very hotly contested race for the first Martinique assembly and executive council, between the incumbent president of the regional council Serge Letchimy (Martinican Progressive Party, PPM, Aimé Césaire's old party and a left-wing autonomist group) and the deputy/former president of the CR Alfred Marie-Jeanne of the separatist-but-not-really-separatist Martinican Independence Movement (MIM). Letchimy (mayor of Fort-de-France, the PPM's stronghold) had defeated Alfred Marie-Jeanne, then the two-term incumbent, in the 2010 regional elections. Alfred Marie-Jeanne's first round coalition included the MIM's other traditional allies of late, notably the RDM of former senator and former president of the CG Claude Lise (a PPM dissident), which led the list in the north section. Yan Monplaisir, a moderate-ish figure, united most of the weak right (the right has been a minor third force in regional politics for some 20 years now). There was also another regionalist list led by Marcellin Nadeau and the 'separatist' Modemas. After the first round, there was an historic (and somewhat unnatural) alliance between Marie-Jeanne (the 'separatist' left) and Monplaisir (the moderate right), on a vague promise of change; given that the MIM is considered to be on the far-left in French politics because its two deputies sit with the Communists in the GDR group in Paris, the alliance between them and the local right was widely interpreted by metro observers as very odd. Nevertheless, the alliance was successful, and Marie-Jeanne defeated Letchimy in the runoff by a considerable margin.

Guadeloupe

Ary Chalus (GUSR-DVG-DVD) 43.55% > 57.42%
Victorin Lurel (PS-PPDG-Verts)* 41.09% > 42.48%
Laurent Bernier (LR-UDI) 4.49%
Mélina Seymour (DVD) 3.18%
Alain Plaisir (DVG) 1.85%
Henri Yoyotte (DVD) 1.58%
Jean-Marie Nomertin (CO) 1.42%
Stéphan Viennet (FN) 1.4%
Mona Cadoce (PCG) 0.92%
Marie-Christine Mirre-Quidal (UPLG) 0.5%

Famously, Guadeloupe had been the only region to be won by the first round in 2010 (or, for that matter, the only region to be won by the first round since two-round regional elections exist), with the landslide reelection of Victorin Lurel (PS), who later became the overseas minister in the Ayrault governments (which made him the most famous overseas politician in metro France). In 2014, Lurel's ally was defeated in his stronghold of Vieux-Habitants in the municipal elections, Lurel's first defeat in 17 years, and he was subsequently dumped from cabinet by Manuel Valls, and 'returned' to Guadeloupe. His two-year absence from Guadeloupe, his stint as a minister in Paris and his close association with the unpopular national executive and PS have likely hurt him quite a bit. In the first round, Lurel ended up behind Ary Chalus, député-maire of Baie-Mahault, associated with a small moderate centre-left party (Guadeloupe unie, socialisme et réalités, GUSR) and sitting in the RRDP group in Paris. Chalus led a composite 'change' alliance of the moderate left and factions of the right (even if the LR-UDI had their own candidate, a general councillor). Marie-Luce Penchard, the daughter of Lucette Michaux-Chevry - longtime strongwoman/crook of the local right (three-term president of the CR from 1992 to 2004) - former overseas minister in the Fillon government (where she was absolutely horrible) and current mayor of Basse-Terre (her mother's stronghold), was second on Chalus' list. In the second round, Chalus built on his lead and won by a large margin. Lurel was defeated even in his personal stronghold of Vieux-Habitants, lost by a lot in Les Abymes (the largest city, governed by PPDG député-maire Éric Jalton).

La Réunion

Didier Robert (LR-UDI)* 40.36% > 52.69%
Huguette Bello (PLR-PS-EELV-DVG) 23.8% > 47.31%
Thierry Robert (MoDem/LPA-DVG) 20.32%
Patrick Lebreton (PCR-PS diss.) 7.12%
Joseph Grondin (FN) 2.39%
Jean-Hugues Ratenon (DVG) 1.69%
Mathias Payet (Oth) 1.47%
René-Paul Victoria (DVD) 1.02%
Aniel Boyer (Nasion Rénioné-Reg) 0.52%
Jean-Yves Payet (LO) 0.48%
David Appadoo (Oth) 0.48%
Jean-Jack Morel (DLF) 0.37%

abst: 55.6% > 44.7%

In 2010, La Réunion had been gained by the right counter-cyclically, with Didier Robert (UMP député-maire of Le Tampon at the time) defeating two-term incumbent Paul Vergès (Reunionese Communist Party, PCR), who has held an elected office for 60 years (making him the longest-serving politician in France, one year ahead of Panzerdaddy) in a triangulaire with the PS. Didier Robert's reelection alliance included Nassimah Dindar (UDI), president of the CG on second place on his list. He faced a divided opposition field in the first round. Huguette Bello, a four-term deputy and former mayor of Saint-Paul (2008-2014), who quit the PCR in 2012 but was nonetheless reelected to her National Assembly seat as a dissident candidate by a huge landslide in the legislative elections; she was supported officially by the PS and her own movement, something called 'Pour La Réunion'. Elected mayor of Saint-Paul in 2008, she lost her reelection bid to the UMP in 2014. PS député-maire of Saint-Joseph Patrick Lebreton ran as a PS dissident, with the official support of the PCR; since Vergès' defeat in 2010 and Huguette Bello's dissidence in 2012, the PCR has lost a lot of its former strength in local politics, and did particularly badly in the departmental elections there earlier this year. MoDem député-maire of Saint-Leu Thierry Robert (sitting in the RRDP group), a loudmouth type, also ran. Finally, René-Paul Victoria, a former right-wing deputy and mayor of Saint-Denis (defeated in 2008 and 2014), ran a dissident list, but his political career seems to be dying. In the first round, Didier Robert led by a wide margin against the divided opposition, but Bello, somewhat unexpectedly, sealed an anti-Robert alliance with her two other major rivals (Thierry Robert, Patrick Lebreton) to run a common list in the second round. This alliance had a theoretical majority on first round numbers (51.2%), but imperfect transfers and the impact of a 10+% increase in turnout meant that it ended up narrowly defeated. The anti-Robert alliance won the main towns of their candidates or parties - Saint-Leu, Saint-Joseph, the old PCR/PLR stronghold of Le Port, Saint-Benoît, but was defeated in the three largest towns - Saint-Denis, Saint-Paul, Saint-Pierre.

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Al, if I may, I suggest you make a map of the percentage of votes lost by the FN between both rounds in IdF, or even Petite couronne, and then we can post it next to a map of a wealth indicator of some sort (GDP per capita, rental prices) and have a good laugh.

Unfortunately, the correlation between income and FN change in Ile-de-France is quasi-nonexistent: the RSQ value is 0.02, the correlation coefficient is -0.13 (and no different for the Petite Couronne).

edit: map

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Do the Paris arrondissement and you'll see something shaping up. 7, 8 and 16 have seen around 40% vote losses for FN, when 13, 18, 19 and 20 are between a 15% and 20% decrease. Is there another explanation that evades me ?

Yes, Paris intra-muros is the exception here - the correlation between income and FN change (in terms of % exprimés loss) is quite strong (RSQ 0.45, CORREL -0.67). In the whole region, while the link between FN change and income is not clear, there is a pretty clear link (shockingly) between FN change and the difference between Pécresse's runoff vote and various sums of the 'non-FN right' in the first round: the RSQ values are 0.17 (comparing to Pécresse herself on Dec. 6), 0.18 (compared to LR+DVD on Dec. 6) and 0.45 (compared to LR+DVD+DLF on Dec. 6). My guess, outside of Paris intra-muros, is that first round FN voters in lower middle-class white suburbia (the kind which is traditionally right-wing but not very rich, highly educated or overwhelmingly populated by white-collar professionals - something which obviously doesn't really exist in Paris proper) switched in particularly significant numbers to the traditional right in the runoff, either because their first round vote was a protest vote for whatever reasons or to 'block' Bartolone.

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Maps!

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