French regional election - December 6 and 13, 2015

[Zanas]

Al, if I may, I suggest you make a map of the percentage of votes lost by the FN between both rounds in IdF, or even Petite couronne, and then we can post it next to a map of a wealth indicator of some sort (GDP per capita, rental prices) and have a good laugh.

Unfortunately, the correlation between income and FN change in Ile-de-France is quasi-nonexistent: the RSQ value is 0.02, the correlation coefficient is -0.13 (and no different for the Petite Couronne).

edit: map

Do the Paris arrondissement and you'll see something shaping up. 7, 8 and 16 have seen around 40% vote losses for FN, when 13, 18, 19 and 20 are between a 15% and 20% decrease. Is there another explanation that evades me ?

[Hash]

Do the Paris arrondissement and you'll see something shaping up. 7, 8 and 16 have seen around 40% vote losses for FN, when 13, 18, 19 and 20 are between a 15% and 20% decrease. Is there another explanation that evades me ?

Yes, Paris intra-muros is the exception here - the correlation between income and FN change (in terms of % exprimés loss) is quite strong (RSQ 0.45, CORREL -0.67). In the whole region, while the link between FN change and income is not clear, there is a pretty clear link (shockingly) between FN change and the difference between Pécresse's runoff vote and various sums of the 'non-FN right' in the first round: the RSQ values are 0.17 (comparing to Pécresse herself on Dec. 6), 0.18 (compared to LR+DVD on Dec. 6) and 0.45 (compared to LR+DVD+DLF on Dec. 6). My guess, outside of Paris intra-muros, is that first round FN voters in lower middle-class white suburbia (the kind which is traditionally right-wing but not very rich, highly educated or overwhelmingly populated by white-collar professionals - something which obviously doesn't really exist in Paris proper) switched in particularly significant numbers to the traditional right in the runoff, either because their first round vote was a protest vote for whatever reasons or to 'block' Bartolone.

[Hash]

Maps!

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Yay!

I always was wondering why Europe Écologie-Les Verts have such strong support in Occitania? 

[Zanas]

Yay!

I always was wondering why Europe Écologie-Les Verts have such strong support in Occitania? 

Like Hash pointed on his map, in Languedoc-Roussillon-Midi-Pyrénées there was a joint EELV-FG list with both parts fully engaged, boosting their score. I don't think EELV has a habit of getting an overwhelmingly better score in Occitania than in other left-wing parts of the country (around Nantes, Bretagne, Île-de-France). Plus, Limousin can be considered occitan, and is on the contrary a mission land for EELV.

One can just say that EELV generally performs well in left-wing territories, and a bit better in parts where communism never built strongholds, and in parts where jacobinism is not fashionable. The Occitan hinterland kind of fills both criteria.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

My bad, didn't notice that on FG maps places where they had coalition with EELV had been marked with grey colour.

[adma]

My bad, didn't notice that on FG maps places where they had coalition with EELV had been marked with grey colour.

Unfortunately, looking at it reminds me of when I inadvertently dismantle a pomegranate gone bad ;-)

[Hash]

[homelycooking]

[homelycooking]

[swl]

So much brown on the Ile de France map...

[Antonio the Sixth]

So much brown on the Ile de France map...

Seine-et-Marne really messes it up.