Brazil Elections 2010

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ftr, you can read more of my analysis here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=106314.0

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Also in the theme of famous candidates we have the old crook who uses lobbyists' money to pay his illegitimate daughter, Mr. Renan Calheiros (PMDB-AL); Roseana Sarney running for re-election in Maranhao (PMDB-MA) against the PDT's Jackson Lago (who defeated her in 2006 but was then invalidated for vote buying); Fernando Gabeira (PV-RJ) running for Governor of Rio with the PSDB-DEM's support; former Rio mayor Cesar Maia (DEM-RJ) running for Senate; gospel singer and evangelical bishop Marcello Crivella (PRB-RJ) running for re-election to the Senate. Less funny, but soy king Blairo Maggi (PR-MT) is running for Senate, and the TSE places his wealth at 86 million US dollars. ftr, LulaDilma supports Renan "the scumbag" Calheiros, Roseana "daddy's girl" Sarney, Marcello "Jerry Falwell" Crivella and Blairo "I own this country" Maggi.

But Anthony "Jesus Christ Jr." "I broke my own hunger strike" Garotinho can't run for Governor of RJ.

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Finally finished! My guide to the elections: http://welections.wordpress.com/guide-to-the-2010-brazilian-election/

Takes something like a week to read completely, though.

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He still has a career? Of course he does. Amazing.

The Brazilian Senate practically has seats set aside for crooks, convicted criminals and all those good guys.

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Electoral register was refused to Joaquim Roriz (PSC-Federal District, running for Governorship)

I have much faith in Brazilian justice. More than I have faith in French or Canadian justice.

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Part of the state-level IBOPE polls:

Paraná-GOV, IBOPE
Beto Richa (PSDB) 46%
Osmar Dias (PDT) 33%
all others <1%
blank-null 4%
undecided 16%

Bahia-GOV, IBOPE
Jaques Wagner (PT-inc) 46%
Paulo Souto (DEM) 19%
Geddel Vieira (PMDB) 11%
Carlos Nascimento (PSTU) 1%
blank-null 9%
undecided 14%

Bahia-SEN, IBOPE
César Borges (PR-inc) 38%
Lídice da Mata (PSB) 25%
Walter Pinheiro (PT) 23%
José Ronaldo (DEM) 10%
José Carlos Aleluia (DEM) 7%
Edvaldo Brito (PTB) 4%
all others 9%
cites only 1 candidate 16%
blank/null 19%
undecided 48%

MG-GOV, IBOPE
Hélio Costa (PMDB) 39%
Antonio Anastasia (PSDB) 21%
Vanessa Portugal (PSTU) 2%
all others 5%
undecided/null 33%

MG-SEN, IBOPE (multiple answers)
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 70%
Itamar Franco (PPS)   39%
Fernando Pimentel (PT) 18%
Marilda Ribeiro (PSOL) 2%
cites only 1 candidate 25%
all others 7%
undecided 40%

Rio-GOV, IBOPE
Sérgio Cabral (PMDB) 58%
Fernando Gabeira (PV) 14%
all others 4%
blank/null 12%
undecided 11%

Rio-SEN, IBOPE
Marcelo Crivella (PRB-inc) 37%
Cesar Maia (DEM) 37%
Lindberg (PT) 21%
Jorge Picciani (PMDB) 11%
Marcelo Cerqueira (PPS) 7%
Milton Temer (PSOL) 4%
Waguinho (PTdoB) 4%
Carlos Dias (PTdoB) 2%
all others 2%
cites only 1 candidate 19%
blank/null 23%
undecided 32%

Pernambuco-GOV, IBOPE
Eduardo Campos (PSB-inc) 60%
Jarbas Vasconcelos (PMDB) 24%
all others 2%
blank/null 5%
undecided 8%

Pernambuco-SEN, IBOPE
Humberto Costa (PT) 44%
Marco Maciel (DEM-inc) 43%
Armando Monteiro (PTB) 27%
Raul Jungmann (PPS) 12%
Hélio Cabral (PSTU) 2%
Renê Patriota (PV) 2%
Simone Fontana (PSTU) 2%
all others 1%
cites only 1 candidate 20%
blank/null 14%
undecided 32%

Paraiba and DF polls are useless since the top candidates in them both got rejected

Some older stuff, but still great:

Alagoas-SEN, Ibrape
Heloisa Helena (PSOL) 39%
Renan Calheiros (PMDB) 33%
Benedito de Lira (PP) 10%
Zé Costa (PPS) 2%
Eduardo Bonfim (PCdoB) 1%
all others <1%
blank/undecided 15%

Alagoas-GOV, Ibrape
Fernando Collor (PTB) 38%
Ronaldo Lessa (PDT-PT) 26%
Teo Vilela (PSDB-inc) 21%
Mário Agra (PSOL) 1%

more info on polling at the state level: http://noticias.uol.com.br/fernandorodrigues/pesquisas/2010/1turno/senador.jhtm

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state-level presidential voting intentions, all by IBOPE:

The order is Dilma-Serra-Marina (date is last polling day)
Paraná (Aug 4): 35-46-7
Ceara (Aug 1): 57-23-7
Mato Grosso do Sul (Jul 31): 37-43-8
Sao Paulo (Jul 29): 33-44-9
Roraima (Jul 29): 37-42-8
Rondonia (Jul 29): 36-36-8
Rio (Jul 29): 46-27-10
Pernambuco (Jul 29): 59-26-5
Paraiba (Jul 29): 53-28-4
Minas Gerais (Jul 29): 44-32-7
DF (Jul 29): 36-25-16
Amazonas (Jul 29): 68-16-7
Amapa (Jul 29): 38-31-13
Acre (Jul 29): 17-38-32
Espírito Santo (Jul 25): 36-38-9
Santa Catarina (Jul 9): 39-46-7
Rio Grande do Sul (Jul 8): 37-46-6
Mato Grosso (Jun 13): 37-39-9

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DF-Gov by Instituto Dados, Pesquisa, Opinião & Mercado
Roriz the Crook (PSC) 44%
Agnelo Queiroz (PT) 24%

My faith in humanity collapses.

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Interview with Dilma in TV Globo was very biased.

For those who don't know, Roberto Marinho's O Globo empire has always been ultraconservative, being in bed with the anti-Vargas far-right, actively backing the 1964 coup and staying in bed with the regime even during Diretas Ja, then vehemently backing Collor and rigging the debate in his favour (and likely helping Collor dig up dirt on Lula). Yet, even if they're a FOX-like rag, they're taken as seriously as CNN or BBC.

ftr, even Carlos Lacerda broke with the regime (albeit only because he was pissed they didn't give him power).

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In DF, Roriz admits that corruption scheme could have begun in his term.

Yeah, I saw that. Either he's an honest crook or he's an awfully retarded crook.

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Ibope poll, Aug 12-15: Rousseff +10

Dilma (PT) 42% (+3)
Serra (PSDB) 32% (-2)
Marina (PV) 8% (nc)
Others 1% (+1)
undecided 9% (-3)
blank-null 7% (nc)

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First round election seems increasingly likely... which would be extremely boring.

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Why is Dilma suddenly in such a commanding position?

She's Lula's candidate.

The only reason she didn't lead at the outset was because nobody knew her. As voters learned who she was, she slowly ate up undecideds and Ciro Gomes' vote (and a bit of Serra's vote, though he's rarely broken 40%, even in 2008 when Dilma was at 1%).

On a side note, this election will be awfully boring except for 'downballot' fun. 2006 was fun, 1994, 1998 and 2002 were largely boring by the end.

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Downballot polls, given that it'll be the only races of interest.

MG-Senate, Datafolha
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 68%
Itamar Franco (PPS)   47%
Fernando Pimentel (PT) 20%
Marilda Ribeiro (PSOL) 3%
Miguel Martini (PHS) 3%
7 others (mostly Trots) 11%
undecided/blank 50%

São Paulo-Senate, Datafolha
Marta Suplicy (PT) 32%
Orestes Quercia (PMDB) 25%
Romeu Tuma (PTB) 23%
Netinho de Paula (PCdoB) 17%
Ciro Moura (PTC) 15%
Moacyr Franco (PSL) 8%
Ana Luiza (PSTU) 5%
Aloysio Nunes (PSDB) 5%
7 others (mostly Trots) 9%
undecided/blank/cites 1 60%

Bahia-Senate, Datafolha
César Borges (PR) 36%
Lídice (PSB) 20%
Walter Pinheiro (PT) 17%
José Ronaldo (DEM) 8%
Aleluia (DEM) 5%
Edvaldo Brito (PTB) 4%
Edson Duarte (PV) 4%
4 Trots 6%
undecided/blank/cites 1 99%

RJ-Senate, Datafolha
Marcelo Crivella (PRB) 40%
César Maia (DEM) 33%
Lindberg Farias (PT) 22%
Jorge Picciani (PMDB) 14%
Marcelo Cerqueira (PPS) 6%
Waguinho (PT do B) 6%
Milton Temer (PSOL) 4%
Carlos Dias (PTdoB) 3%
3 Trots 3%
undecided/blank/cites 1 70%
 
Paraná-Senate, Datafolha
Roberto Requião (PMDB) 49%
Gleisi Hoffmann (PT) 31%
Ricardo Barros (PP) 15%
Gustavo Fruet (PSDB) 13%
timewasters 12%
undecided/blank/cites 1 79%

RS-Senate, Datafolha
Germano Rigotto (PMDB) 43%
Paulo Paim (PT) 35%
Ana Amélia Lemos (PP) 33%
Vera Guaço (PSTU) 3%
José Schneider (PMN) 3%
Marcos Monteiro (PV) 2%
Roberto Gross (PTC) 4%
4 Trots 4%
undecided/blank/cites 1 75%

Maranhão-Gov, 'Escutec'
Roseana "daddy's girl" Sarney (PMDB-inc) 49.6%
Jackson "vote buyer" Lago (PDT) 23.7%
Flávio Dino (PCdoB) 18.2%
3 angry Trots 1.1%
undecided 7.5%

DF-Gov, O&P
Criminal (PSC) 39.3%
Agnelo Queiroz (PT) 32.3%
Toninho (PSOL) 2.4%
others 1.9%
undecided 24.2%

DF-Gov, Exata
Criminal (PSC) 37.3%
Agnelo Queiroz (PT) 35.4%
Toninho (PSOL) 4.2%
others 1.8%
undecided 21.3%

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Boring election in sight, yeah.

At any rate, it's more a reflection of how madly popular Lula is in Brazil, and, unlike in 2006, his popularity clearly breaks class lines (though faint, very faint, outlines of class can and will be seen in the results). It also doesn't help the opposition that they nominated a rather stale uncharismatic moderately-popular old-timer associated with FHC to oppose the anointed candidate of the most popular head of state of Brazil since 1821.

In Colombia, there was a chance that a well-liked, charismatic and flamboyant guy could be able to win building a coalition of opponents and supporters of the incumbent with a post-Uribist message; but Lula has been far more successful (especially in his second term) than Uribe has and the only guy who could've have ran a successful campaign on a post-incumbent message isn't running.

The whole thing of "president x has been excellent, great; so we'll vote for whoever he endorses because he/she must be just as wonderful!" is stupid and retarded, but I digress. It's not like it matters who of Dilma and Serra wins, they're practically one and the same on every issue save privatizations/government intervention and foreign policy.

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Ibope polls (Aug 18-20) for the only interesting races left

MG-Senate
Aecio 69%
Itamar Franco 43%
Pimentel (PT) 19%
Marilda Ribeiro (PSOL) 2%
undecided 30%
cites 1 23%
blank/null 8%

AL-Senate
Heloisa Helena (PSOL) 44%
Renan Calheiros (PMDB) 42%
Benedito de Lira (PP) 28%
Ze Costa (PPS) 2%
Álvaro Vasconcelos (PTB) 2%
Eduardo Bonfim (PCdoB) 2%
Paulo Nunes (PRTB) 2%
undecided 40%
cites 1 20%
blank/null 11%

MG-Governor
Hélio Costa (PMDB) 38%
Antonio Anastasia (PSDB) 27%
3 others 3%
undecided 32%

AL-Governor
Ronaldo Lessa (PDT) 29%
Fernando Sexgod Collor (PTB) 28%
Teotonio Vilela (PSDB) 24%
3 others 3%
undecided 16%

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I think the PT is going a tad over the top now, but when you have such a lead and when such a lead is likely unassailable, you can act ridiculous.

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Maybe that's a bit OOC, but wasn't Itamar supporting Lula in 2002? Why is he now supporting Serra (and the other guy in 2006)?

Itamar publicly said that he found Lula too arrogant and haughty or something along those lines.

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Serra is also a bad campaigner and Aecio would be a better candidate than him.

Why did Aecio skipped 2010 bid?

He likely understood that even him winning in a year like 2010 would be extremely hard, and he preferred to run for something which he would win with 99.99% certainty (Senate). It's also why he declined to be Serra's running-mate, like most tucanos had hoped.

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It seems like Dilma will win EVERY STATE. even conservative santa catarina, paraná, rio grande do sul and roraima. sao paula is gone for serra, and also mato grosso do sul, a southern conservative state. the election is over, dilma will win. at least, serra has to keep rio grande do sul (and dilma is up by 7 points here), santa catarina (where dilma is up 3 or 5 points), paraná (where dilma is up by high single-digits). the only state where serra is leading in polls is acre, and only by 2% points. but he knows he won't win there, because acre is a safe PT state and the only reason for his lead is that marina silva is from here, and she is splitting the PT vote with dilma. but finally, acreans will vote for dilma here, IMO.

It isn't as much of a stretch or a surprising occurrence as you make it seem. Lula won all but 3 states in the first round in 2002 where he didn't break 50% (and there were two more 10% range candidates). Two of those being favourite son occurrences, the other being the last stand of the Nordestino conservative oligarchies in Alagoas. Dilma has roots in RS, and the PSDB in the state isn't too popular. Paraná and SC will vote Dilma by a rather comfortable margin if she wins by 20-30% nationally. Sao Paulo likewise. It isn't like any of these states have no left-wing base (to the contrary), and as I previously said, Dilma's appeal is growingly similar to Lula's 2002 appeal which broke class lines and regional divides (much unlike Lula's 2006 appeal).

Alckmin won approximately only a dozen municipalities in the whole Nordeste in 2006. It isn't a stretch to imagine that the entire region will be only red down to the municipal level.

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that fascist party that supports (and I don't know how) Lula.

They're not ideological fascists, they're monetary pork fascists. So as always in Brazilian politics, when in doubt as to why the right supports the left or vice-versa: $$$$$.

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Oh, IMO, dilma will win every state, and that's incredible. SC used to be like murcia in spain or wyoming in the USA, a very conservative state that always votes for the same party. and they will vote for dilma this time. for me, that's surprising.

Voting patterns in Brazil are/were too fluid and are too recent for any analysis to be fully correct. Voting patterns further changed dramatically between 1989-2002 and 2006, and while SC has always been a conservative state it did vote for Brizola in 1989, was one of FHC's weakest states in 1994 (though he won it), and Lula broke 60% there unlike in SP or PA. It might have been a rather easy win for Alckmin in 2006 and it did have the biggest anti-Lula swing from 2002 (except Roraima), but you can't deduct a state's politics from the 2006 result. In Brazil, you can hardly deduct a state politics from electoral results at any rate. SC is conservative, but it hardly is like Wyoming and it being won by the left should shock none in 2010.

If you want a conservative Wyoming-state, look at Alagoas. Only state not won by Lula in 2002, though I think we can all explain that Alagoas has little in common with Wyoming culturally or politically even when it was the last redoubt of the oligarchs.

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Granted, the south and southeast consistently lean to the right side of politics in Brazil since 2004-2005 or so and that isn't very surprising all things considered about (a) Lula's first term and (b) his 2006 rhetoric. Of course, as I've said before, Dilma's 2010 appeal is more like Lula's 2002 appeal, when he was a reformist moderate catch-all candidate acceptable to almost all stratas of society. The economic success of Brazil and Lula's popularity allows Dilma to seize that catch-all broad appeal which so characterized Lula in 2002. Furthermore, the well-known calm, give-and-take approach of Brazilian politics (which has characterized Brazilian politics since 1821 with relatively few exceptions, no exaggeration) and the easiness of making a massive group of people change their minds overnight and/or walk in line with the mood of the day makes Brazilian elections since the 90s slam-dunks or close to slam-dunks in the last few months for one particular candidate. A good example of the easiness of making a whole slew of people walk in line with the prevailing mood is the 2005 firearms referendum which saw a massive switch from yes to no in a matter of months (granted, confusion, mass media propaganda for the no and the use of hordes of money for the no played a part...)

You don't need to explain to me the ins and outs of Brazilian society, culture and history. I've spent, all boasting aside, most of 2010 and late 2009 reading 15ish books on Brazil from varied sources and spent the good part of July writing a 28,000-word quasi-essay on Brazil. I know most of the shazam off the back of my head by now.

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Datafolha, Sept. 2-3

Dilma (PT) 50% (+1)
Serra (PSDB) 28% (-1)
Marina (PV) 10% (+1)
undecided/blank 11% (-1)

Datafolha projection: 56-32-11

Ibope, Aug 31-Sept 2

Dilma (PT) 51% (nc)
Serra (PSDB) 27% (nc)
Marina (PV) 8% (+1)
undecided/blank 13% (-1)


MG-Governor, Datafolha, Sept 1
Hélio Costa (PMDB) 40%
Antonio Anastasia (PSDB-gov) 35%
5 others 5%
undecided/blank 19%

RJ-Governor, Ibope, Sept 2
Sérgio Cabral (PMDB-inc) 58%
Fernando Gabeira (PV) 15%
Eduardo Serra (PCB) 2%
Fernando Peregrino (PR) 2%
Cyro Garcia (PSTU) 1%
undecided/blank 21%

RS-Govenor, Ibope, Sept 2
Tarso Genro (PT) 41%
José Fogaça (PMDB) 23%
Yeda Crusius (PSDB-inc) 13%
Pedro Ruas (PSOL) 1%
undecided/blank 21%

DF-Governor, Ibope, Sept 2
Agnelo Queiroz (PT) 40%
Joaquim Roriz (PSC) 32%
Toninho (PSOL) 2%
Eduardo Brandão (PV) 1%
Rodrigo Dantas (PSTU) 1%
undecided/blank 24%

MG-Governor, Ibope, Sept 3
Antonio Anastasia (PSDB-gov) 35%
Hélio Costa (PMDB) 33%
undecided/blank 29%

I personally find MG a fascinating contest because it's a contest between the candidates of the two most popular politicians in Brazil: Lula and Aecio.

MG-Senate, Datafolha, Sept 1
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 64%
Itamar Franco (PPS) 44%
Fernando Pimentel (PT) 30%
others 14%
undecided/blank 46%

SP-Senate, Datafolha, Sept 3
Marta Suplicy (PT) 33%
Netinho de Paula (PCdoB) 28%
Orestes Quércia (PMDB) 26%
Romeu Tuma (PTB) 15%
Ciro Moura (PTC) 11%
Aloysio Nunes (PSDB) 12%
Moacyr Franco (PSL) 6%
others 10%
undecided/blank 57%

SP-Senate, Ibope, Sept 2
Marta Suplicy (PT) 33%
Netinho de Paula (PCdoB) 26%
Orestes Quércia (PMDB) 23%
Romeu Tuma (PTB) 13%
Aloysio Nunes (PSDB) 12%
undecided/blank 32%
cites 1 15%

RJ-Senate, Ibope, Sept 2
Marcelo Crivella (PRB) 34%
César Maia (DEM) 30%
Lindberg Farias (PT)    28%
Jorge Picciani (PMDB) 22%
Waguinho (PT do B) 6%
Marcelo Cerqueira (PPS) 2%
Milton Temer (PSOL) 2%
2 others 1%
undecided/blank 56%
cites 1 17%

PE-Senate, Ibope, Sept 2
Humberto Costa (PT) 49%
Marco Maciel (DEM) 35%
Armando Monteiro Neto (PTB) 34%
Raul Jungmann (PPS) 9%
4 others 4%
undecided/blank 49%
cites 1 19%

RS-Senate, Ibope, Sept 2
Ana Amélia Lemos (PP) 49%
Paulo Paim (PT) 40%
Germano Rigotto (PMDB) 38%
Abgail Pereira (PCdoB) 6%
Vera Guaço (PSTU) 2%
5 others 5%
undecided/blank 40%
cites 1 21%

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And Silva will beat serra for the second place in a lot of states =).

I seriously doubt that.