China

[Beet]

Apart from world war or environmental cataclysm, China will be a multi-party parliamentary democracy.

[Beet]

Multi party democracy.

[Beet]

Multi party democracy.

What are you basing that on?

History of countries that become rich? [shrugs]

[Beet]

Multi party democracy.

What are you basing that on?

History of countries that become rich? [shrugs]

That isn't a good idea.

Why not?

[Beet]

Why does any ruling party ever lose power? Ruling parties are only a part of society. Society sometimes changes to the point where it's monopoly is no longer needed.

Latin America today is more prosperous than it has ever been, and also more democratic. Sure, lots of poor countries have unstable democracies, but once a certain level of development is reached, pressure for democratization sets in. I don't think this trend is based solely on wars. Europe was moving towards democracy before World War I.

The biggest risk to democracy is not that authoritarian systems will prove immovable but that democratic systems self- destruct. E.g., the breakup of the Soviet Union, just like what you've been talking about here. That was a huge blow to democracy in China because China obviously doesn't want to be broken up. The biggest argument of the authoritarians there is that democracy is inevitably coupled with Russia style disaster.

Other ways democracy can self destruct is illegitimate or disputed elections, parliamentary systems that produce nothing but gridlock, and hyper polarization.

Ultimately, wealth in society leads to greater expectations of people being well treated, and this in turn leads to democracy. China may be nationalist, xenophobic and internalistic, but it is also secular. There are nationalistic and xenophobic sentiments, and these sentiments might find various expressions, but you don't have the fixed, centralized doctrine; you don't have the entrench clerical oligarchy, you don't have the intense personal and spiritual investment that comes with religion. Chinese conservatism and insularity is disorganized, disoriented. It will never recover from the blows of the 20th century. Old line Confucianism isn't really coming back.

[Beet]

Of course, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, etc. were all Western colonies or puppets at one point.

[Beet]

Of course, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, etc. were all Western colonies or puppets at one point.

So was much of mainland China.

Yeah but the pertinent point is that Japan 1945, Korea 1988, Taiwan 1989, Hong Kong 1997 were all Western colonies or puppets (or 'allies' if you prefer), at the time they transitioned their political systems.