Israel-Gaza war

[Beet]

So, the outlines are becoming clearer now. Despite the Palestinians winning the war in certain corners of social media and some protests, in the actual situation on the ground the Israelis are winning.

[Beet]

So, the outlines are becoming clearer now. Despite the Palestinians winning the war in certain corners of social media and some protests, in the actual situation on the ground the Israelis are winning.

Was anything else ever expected?

And hopefully that means this war can at least be paused soon.

No, I suppose not, and it's likely for the best for the precise reason you stated.

It is somewhat remarkable that the world is witnessing a rather public massacre and not a single Muslim power is able or willing to help Gaza, not even Iran. A big contrast to 1967 or 1973. Despite the agony of the Muslim world, in my view the restraint of Muslim states from becoming directly involved in a conflict against Israel is wise, given the alternative.

[Beet]

I'm beginning to think the strategy is to commit as many atrocities as possible and then ditch Netanyahu so the new guy can come in with "clean hands" and do the have-your-cake-and-eat-it-too thing. In the distant future we may even get a Knesset apology for what's happening now.

[Beet]

The MSM is doing what it typically does which is names, smiling faces, ages, and emotion laden stories of individual Israeli hostages freed, not a single one of Palestinian prisoners freed, just numbers in passing. If I hadn't been blackpilled on the MSM already from Covid this would have done it.

[Beet]

Netanyahu is a right-winger who supported Romney over the Obama-Biden ticket in 2012. Why should Biden sacrifice his presidency and hand over the leading nation of the free world to a would-be dictator, so Netanyahu can drop white phosphorous on civilians? This is what has come to. Biden must learn to say "no", even if it's only to save his own skin.

[Beet]

Netanyahu is a right-winger who supported Romney over the Obama-Biden ticket in 2012. Why should Biden sacrifice his presidency and hand over the leading nation of the free world to a would-be dictator, so Netanyahu can drop white phosphorous on civilians? This is what has come to. Biden must learn to say "no", even if it's only to save his own skin.

Biden is not going to lose because he's siding with our long-term ally over a vicious terror group. He would lose if he did do that, overwhelmingly, if he was even renominated.

You get a straight A in strawmanning. No one serious wants to side with "a vicious terror group".

He's leaning too hard towards Israel and it's splintering his party's base. The number one rule of politics is you have to keep your base intact.

[Beet]

Netanyahu is a right-winger who supported Romney over the Obama-Biden ticket in 2012. Why should Biden sacrifice his presidency and hand over the leading nation of the free world to a would-be dictator, so Netanyahu can drop white phosphorous on civilians? This is what has come to. Biden must learn to say "no", even if it's only to save his own skin.

Biden is not going to lose because he's siding with our long-term ally over a vicious terror group. He would lose if he did do that, overwhelmingly, if he was even renominated.

You get a straight A in strawmanning. No one serious wants to side with "a vicious terror group".

He's leaning too hard towards Israel and it's splintering his party's base. The number one rule of politics is you have to keep your base intact.

What is the proper balance to strike between our long-term ally, which has just been the victim of the worst anti-Jewish act of Genocide since the Holocaust, and the entity that committed that act of genocide? Because it looks to me like Biden is doing a very good job of that. Anything but "Total support, but urging a level of caution" would be electoral and moral malpractice.

He needs to call for a cease-fire and if it does not happen, withhold further military aid. Israel doesn't need it anyway. We have been Israel's ally for 70 years. Israel hasn't been our ally. It has caused the U.S. nothing but trouble and resentment in the Middle East.

[Beet]

Netanyahu is a right-winger who supported Romney over the Obama-Biden ticket in 2012. Why should Biden sacrifice his presidency and hand over the leading nation of the free world to a would-be dictator, so Netanyahu can drop white phosphorous on civilians? This is what has come to. Biden must learn to say "no", even if it's only to save his own skin.

Biden is not going to lose because he's siding with our long-term ally over a vicious terror group. He would lose if he did do that, overwhelmingly, if he was even renominated.

You get a straight A in strawmanning. No one serious wants to side with "a vicious terror group".

He's leaning too hard towards Israel and it's splintering his party's base. The number one rule of politics is you have to keep your base intact.

What is the proper balance to strike between our long-term ally, which has just been the victim of the worst anti-Jewish act of Genocide since the Holocaust, and the entity that committed that act of genocide? Because it looks to me like Biden is doing a very good job of that. Anything but "Total support, but urging a level of caution" would be electoral and moral malpractice.

He needs to call for a cease-fire and if it does not happen, withhold further military aid. Israel doesn't need it anyway. We have been Israel's ally for 70 years. Israel hasn't been our ally. It has caused the U.S. nothing but trouble and resentment in the Middle East.

As long as there is a single hostage left in Hamas' hands, there will be no cease-fire. If the US cuts off Israel, Israel will move to harsher measures to eliminate the threat as hard and fast as possible before they run out of supplies. Biden can continue on the path supported by a majority of Democrats and a super-majority of Americans, or he can bring us to the brink of war with a long-term ally in defense of a terror group.

So you are threatening that Israel will go to war with the U.S. of we don't hand over military aid? Biden should call that bluff.

Israel is free to "move to harsher measures"; the U.S. should simply not associate with it. And the rest of the world will start treating it like apartheid South Africa.

[Beet]

Nakba wouldn't have happened "in a perfect world".

In a perfect world, the Romans wouldn’t have kicked the Jews out of Judea.

In reality, we don’t live in a perfect world. Wars of conquest, land loss and ethnic cleaning are extremely common in history. That doesn’t excuse what happened to thousands of Palestinian Arabs in 1948, but it should put it in perspective. Palestinians have every right to be upset over what happened, but you just can’t respond to it by living as permanent refugees, electing terrorists as your government, and teaching your children to be suicide bombers. What’s happening in Gaza is not happening because of the Nakba, it’s happening because Palestinians have chosen to respond to the Nakba by starting a suicidal war with a neighbor much stronger than them. What happened to Palestinians in 1948 was by no means unique, and throughout history many people have responded to such tragedies by accepting reality and building a better life for their children and grandchildren. And if Palestinians did this, they would have a much higher quality of life, much more international support, and a much better chance and getting  at least some of their land back.

Ok but this essentially is a might makes right / law of the jungle argument.

[Beet]

Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren call for end to unconditional aid to Israel

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/01/04/congress/warren-no-blank-check-for-israel-00133868

The progressive wing of the Democratic party is swinging into line around limits in aid to Israel. It seems a major drive of this shift is the realization that every previous president had put hard limits on Israeli action, including Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump, and Biden should follow in their footsteps as well.

There is a risk of a wider war in the Middle East, which would not benefit anyone except the most craven death-wishers, so I hope Biden can put the hammer down on Netanyahu to end the military operation as soon as possible, and if not, at least extricate the U.S. from the situation.

[Beet]

Great stuff. This will help the Biden-Harris ticket with the base. Now we just need Joe to come along. This reminds me of 2012 when Biden came out for gay marriage.

[Beet]

Great stuff. This will help the Biden-Harris ticket with the base. Now we just need Joe to come along. This reminds me of 2012 when Biden came out for gay marriage.

There is 0% chance Harris says this without Biden's okay. This is clearly going to be part of a messaging pivot.

Maybe, but it still has to come out of the big guy's mouth. Also, if it comes apart after six weeks that'll be a problem. The goal should be for Biden to eventually call for an indefinite cease-fire.

[Beet]

I can't pretend to understand much about Israel politics, but it's hard to see how this is even close to a guarantee. Why couldn't the polity that selected Natanyahu in a time of relative peace replace him with someone as bad or worse?

Gantz is only slightly better than Netanyahu - he's pro-settlements (albeit just in the existing areas) and wants to retain large parts of the West Bank.

Really, as of 10-7, every political position to the left of that is beyond dead for the next few years if not decades.

The 1973 war convinced Israel that they needed a peace agreement with Egypt.

Egypt was the biggest Arab state by far and had a government that could be trusted to uphold a peace deal, the current situation isn't remotely similar.

Unlike Egypt before the peace agreement, the PLO recognizes Israel.

Yeah Egypt had literally attacked Israel in 1973 but the PLA hasn't attacked Israel in decades.

[Beet]

The UN Security Council has passed a resolution calling for an immediate and permanent cease-fire. Something I was told was impossible on this Forum. It feels like a seminal moment.

[Beet]

The UN Security Council has passed a resolution calling for an immediate and permanent cease-fire. Something I was told was impossible on this Forum. It feels like a seminal moment.

It's non-binding and both sides have immediately made clear they have no intention of abiding by it, so in the end I guess it was.

"Israel is not going to do it" does not mean it is impossible. The UN Security Council apparently agrees with me and disagrees with you and the other Biden supporters here.

[Beet]

Netanyahu fell into Hamas's trap so bad. Israel has managed to turn a massacre of its own people into a global political defeat. Biden should have pushed hard for a permanent cease-fire months ago and all of this could have been prevented. Basically, what I've been saying for months, and what the cease-fire movement/protesters been saying all along. But we've been demonized as far left, unrealistic, and worse. Right now the Biden-Israel axis are just digging themselves a deeper and deeper hole. They don't want to stop digging because that would force them to recognize how deep they are. But they should think about cutting their losses.

[Beet]

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1775877423868846478

[Beet]

https://twitter.com/justin4all2/status/1776603195814338701?t=ulqFkKybQJzOSzLQM7N...

[Beet]

The tweet is just direct quotations from a piece written by a couple of NYT correspondents. Which is a weird way to share an important piece of journalism covering details of a process that most Americans know little about, to be fair, but Atlas can't seem to lay aside the assumption that Twitter is "what's happening"

At least Twitter is free. The NY Times is sometimes, but since I stopped subscribing to them, I started spending a lot less time directly on their site and that translates into less direct links.

[Beet]

The Arab dictators don't care about the Palestinians. If they did, Israel wouldn't get away with nearly as much as it does today. Bin Salman could've picked up the phone months ago and called Biden and said, "If you don't tell Bibi to stop, I'm gonna do another Oil Embargo and then you can kiss your re-election goodbye", and Biden would've picked up the phone and called Bibi and said, "Cut it the F out, or else" in a truly serious way that would have given Israel pause. Bin Salman cares more about Israeli tech companies investing in the Gulf, humanitarianism be damned. The Egyptian generals care more about their IMF loans to keep the economy afloat for a few more years. Hell, even the Iranians care more about staying out of a regional war so they can keep the mullahs grip on power. And so on. The only difference is how they virtue signal.

Of course, Netanyahu and Biden know this, which is why they have been relatively blase. Only because it's 2024 and Trump is breathing down his neck, Biden has his re-election to worry about, and the kids are really threatening to pull support. Perhaps the only truly good actors in all this are the college kids organizing protests on campuses who got arrested or expelled. They are among the only ones in the world who have actually put skin in the game of helping the people of Gaza. Almost everyone else is cowed.