Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[kaoras]

Wait so we are at 68% of the vote counted but only 10% in Madrid? I know from following this before that is not normal,  it has to be the trains thing right?

It's also almost certainly why the combined left is doing noticeablely better. While we're still not headfirst a right-wing majority and more the MOE result more polls points too in the 170ish area, its where all the missing votes are, right?

Madrid is at 47%

[kaoras]

Is going to be another election unless PSOE regains a bunch of seats thanks to the foreign (CERA) votes in the next few days. Even then, Sanchez may still take the gamble lol.

[kaoras]

The right got the low end of the polls in term of seat, is not really that bad. What is really criminal is the polling in Navarre.

[kaoras]

The right-wing bloc is at 169 now.  PP vote share is about to overtake PSOE very soon

Reckon PP and Vox could just about make it with Communidad de Madrid

Make what? Madrid is at 63% Proportional seat allocation is not going to vary that much in such a big district.

[kaoras]

Cc + Vox + PP + UPN 171

In fact, it is possible, although highly unlikely, that they could still reach 176

Lmao, keep coping

[kaoras]

PP sorpassoed PSOE on the vote count just now.

Yup, which gives PP a “mandate” to lead.

PP + Vox + UPN = 170 seats

PP + Vox + UPN + CC = 171 seats

They only need more 5 or 6 seats to govern with this coalition.

But where could they get those 5 or 6 seats from?

From no one, that's why the right HAD to get to at least 174

[kaoras]

We still need to see if the CERA vote changes anything but this seems like total gridlock.

[kaoras]

When are the votes from Spaniards abroad (CERA) countes? I think I read they tend to favor the left so could that change a seat or two?

I believe they are only included in the 'escrutinio definitivo' between 28-31 July.

I don't know how many are expected though? There would have to be quite a few to change the outcome in any one province.

Here are the number of votes by constituency from 2019: http://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/documentos/GENERALES_2019_ResultadosVotoCERA2_Congreso.pdf

The only provinces where the number of votes needed to change the result is lower than the number of CERA ballots in 2019:
Girona, Cantabria, Tarragona, Madrid, Salamanca, Guipuzkoa, Malaga

Of those, the only one that looks like a plausible change is Madrid (which would be a PP gain from PSOE).

CERA was made easier and participation went up a lot.
Also, PP will not gain anything from PSOE in CERA because CERA is very left wing

[kaoras]

Also, the PSOE's second place in this election is almost a victory. No recorded poll predicted that performance. Never understimate Perro Sánchez

1996 vibes: "Nunca una derrota fue tan dulce y nunca una victoria fue tan amarga"

The Spanish right under-performs in national elections quite a lot, doesn't it? Even besides not winning a landslide in 1996, both 2004 and 2008 were on some level expected to be comfortable victories for them and both ended up as pretty narrow left-wing wins.

2008 went exactly as expected at the time. 2004 had PP lying and trying to blame ETA for the terrorists attacks in Madrid just a few days before the elections.

The April election in 2019 is a better example actually, that was a massive right wing choke.

[kaoras]

When are the votes from Spaniards abroad (CERA) countes? I think I read they tend to favor the left so could that change a seat or two?

I believe they are only included in the 'escrutinio definitivo' between 28-31 July.

I don't know how many are expected though? There would have to be quite a few to change the outcome in any one province.

Here are the number of votes by constituency from 2019: http://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/documentos/GENERALES_2019_ResultadosVotoCERA2_Congreso.pdf

The only provinces where the number of votes needed to change the result is lower than the number of CERA ballots in 2019:
Girona, Cantabria, Tarragona, Madrid, Salamanca, Guipuzkoa, Malaga

Of those, the only one that looks like a plausible change is Madrid (which would be a PP gain from PSOE).

CERA was made easier and participation went up a lot.
Also, PP will not gain anything from PSOE in CERA because CERA is very left wing

Is there any evidence that participation has increased a lot (certainly it stands to reason given the changes, but do we have anything beyond anecdote)?

As for it being left wing, that is a generalisation. As you can see from the spreadsheet I posted, the PP+Cs vote in 2019 was 2.5k higher than that of the PSOE in the CERA vote.

https://www.vozpopuli.com/espana/politica/elecciones-generales/voto-exterior-dispara.html

The new system debuted in the autonomic elections; in Madrid PP got 44% in CERA vs 47,3%. I may be overselling how left wing the foreign vote is, but PP would need to overperform their % vs the regular results, and that has never happened.

[kaoras]

Damn, this place must be funny taking into consideration proximity of Marinaleda.

The boring reality, much like that random town won by PACMA in the middle of Castilla, is that is a transcription error.

[kaoras]

Casariche actual result
Sumar 1105
PSOE 951
PP 421
FE de las Jons 278
Vox 209
FO 152
PACMA 30
PCTE 7

That still has the transcription error from that precinct. In fact, is even more obvious because FE de las JONS supposedly got 278 votes in that specific section which means it got 0 in the rest of the municipality.

Frente Obrero also "got" 149 in that precinct and 3 votes in the rest of Casariche.

[kaoras]

In a twist that will shock literally no one not overdosing on copium, PNV has said that it will not pact or even negotiate with PP.

[kaoras]

Looks like the PSOE has lost their last seat in Madrid to the PP. This means they’d need Junts to vote yes rather than abstain, and surely confirms new elections.

Edit - sounds like a recount. Must be extremely tight.

Yeah, really surprising. Either Madrid voted like Galicia in the CERA or Sumar over performed massively at the expense of PSOE.

If PP get this seat then there is no option but to go to another election.

[kaoras]

They actually did the Nazi salute and started singing the hymn of the blue division lol.

Any PSOE loses due to the amnesty will likely be mitigated by the sheer polarization (I have seen it first hand among Spaniards). Honestly, Sánchez is either the luckiest man alive or just an evil mastermind.