Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

So a recent poll shows Kast and Boric tied in the second round. Boric is most likely going to win this but the very fact it exists is depressing.

I think Kast is actually the favorite. He keeps a nonstop growing trend, who knows how much he can reach?

Chile unfortunately is succumbing to the more populist and “anti-establishment” option after the protests. But oh well, at least the new leftist constitution change will be worth it.

Kast isn't the one who wants to destroy the Chilean economic system. In a Kast vs Boric runoff Kast is closer to the status quo than Boric.

Except he does? All his tax cuts would destroy the Chilean State and economy Kansas Style*. You are right that he is more status quo than Boric though, that's why he will lose.

*_{But again, is not like you would know that unless you read all of his program because Boric and Provoste are idiots and the press is all hostage of the economic elite}

[kaoras]

Boric presented his updated platform, a delay which was heavily criticized. But this is being overshadowed by gaffes of his aides, like RD secretary saying they would "unstabilize the country to do deep reforms".

His new platform shed some unpopular things of his primary platform (like allowing undocumented immigrants to apply for social housing) but kept his pension reform (transitioning to a full distribution system) that wil surely come back to haunt him.

[kaoras]

Boric has COVID 19. This basically freezes the presidential race since everyone is a close contact. (save Parisi, lol, he supposedly comes to Chile this weekend).

This also puts Piñera impeachment in jeopardy since some FA deputies, and Boric himself will have to quarantine. It has to be voted on Monday.

Also, there has been a lot of polls lately (some of them of dubious origins and quality), but I will wait until the last legal days to do a mega-post with them.

[kaoras]

Boric has COVID 19. This basically freezes the presidential race since everyone is a close contact. (save Parisi, lol, he supposedly comes to Chile this weekend).

This also puts Piñera impeachment in jeopardy since some FA deputies, and Boric himself will have to quarantine. It has to be voted on Monday.

Also, there has been a lot of polls lately (some of them of dubious origins and quality), but I will wait until the last legal days to do a mega-post with them.

Is there no provision for remote debate or voting? Seems like a massive oversight - what did they do last year?

There was but only under state of emergency, which ended a few months ago

[kaoras]

Okay, I think there are not going to be more polls, so here we are:

CADEM. Methodology: Live call to cellphones. N=1008

Kast 24% | Boric 19% | Provoste 11% | Sichel 8% | Parisi 7% | MEO 4% | Artés 1%
Second Round: Kast 44-Boric 40.

Data Influye. Online Panel

Boric 32% | Kast 27% | Provoste 13% | Sichel 9% | Parisi 8% | MEO 4% | Artés 2%

Criteria. Online Panel. N=1523 (No E segment, the poorest one)

Boric 24%| Kast 23% | Provoste 9% | Sichel 8% | Parisi 8% | Ominami 6% | Artés 2%

Activa-Pulso Ciudadano. Online Panel. N=1349

Kast 29,6% | Boric 25,7% | Provoste 14,7% | Sichel 12,3% | Parisi 10% | MEO 4,9% | Artés 2%

Feedback. E-Mail. N=5.064

Kast 36% | Boric 30% | Sichel 11% | Provoste 9% | Parisi 4% | MEO 2% | Artés 1%
Second Round: Kast 49% - Boric 41%

UDD. Online Panel. N=7613

Kast 25% | Boric 22% | Provoste 10% | Parisi 10% | Sichel 9% | MEO 5% | Artés 2%
Second Round: Boric 33% - Kast 33%

Atlas Intel. Online Panel. N= 2266. This one should be familiar for U.S posters and Atlas regulars!

Kast 31% | Boric 21.4% | Provoste 12,2% | Parisi 10.1% | Sichel 9.2% | MEO 4.2% | Artés 2.5%
Second Round: Kast 42.6% - Boric 36.7%

La Cosa Notra. Online Pane. N=600

Boric 36% | Kast 30% | Provoste 14%| Parisi 5% | Ominami 4% | Artés 2%
Second Round: Boric 54%- Kast 46%.

Universidad de Los Lagos. Face to face. Only Los Lagos region. N=384

Boric 19.3% | Kast 16.1%| Provoste 9.1% | Sichel 4.2% | Parisi 6.8% | MEO 2.8% | Artés 1.7%

Feedback-Universidad Católica del Norte. Face to Face. Only Antofagasta region. N=700

Provoste 12% | Boric 11% | Parisi 10% | Kast 9% | MEO 5% | Sichel 1% | Artés 0%:
Second Round: Boric 21%-Kast 13%


I was tempted to add a section of "Why this poll sucks" to every single poll but let's better not spit to the sky. Let's hope that there isn't any consistent bias in the kind of people that participates in Online Panels

[kaoras]

The bottom line is that most polls agree that Kast is in the first place and is the favourite for the second round. They also have Parisi surging close to Sichel and Provoste. I do find it fascinating how utterly bizarre-looking the face to face regional polls are.

Will the polls finally be right after all these years? What effects will have the last 2 weeks and the final debate? Is anyone guess. I'm inclined to believe that they are wrong because the people that tend to be on online panels (especially older people, who would have to be very educated) tend to lean to the right, but we'll see. There are some hilarious biases out there though, for example the national Feedback one has 90% of participation in the last elections, 88% of people very interested in politics, and 47% of people who lean right.

 The Kast surge is real though, as is the minor Parisi one, although I suspect that Parisi, who comes back to Chile tomorrow, will crash epically on the final debate once people are reminded of all of his scandals.

It also remains to be seen the kind of scrutiny Kast will face as the new frontrunner.

[kaoras]

Will the final debate be remote?

Maybe, Boric has the Delta Variant so it depends if he test positive again in a few days. But his quarantine period ends the same day of the debate IIRC, so they could just delay it by a day.

[kaoras]

Impeachment of Piñera is today. PS deputy Jaime Naranjo is currently reading a 1300 pages speech in defense of the impeachment. His goal is to delay the vote until FA deputy Giorgio Jackson arrives at Congress past midnight (he is in quarantine until 00:00 today). The Opposition estimates that without Jackson they are exactly one vote short.

_{I think he is related in some way to the famous Oscar Naranjo, the protagonist of the Naranjazo in 1964, he represents Linares, which is very close to Curicó and in the same region}

[kaoras]

Naranjo speech has gone on for 10 hours now, with a single 15 minutes break. Some minutes ago he rejected another 20-minute break.

[kaoras]

Latin America truly is the land of magical realism

Naranjo is still talking. In the last break, he talked briefly to the press and said "this is to be taken as fast I do for those whose human rights were abused, crimes that were left unpunished in the last (failed) impeachment. This is a gesture so this country, once and for all, doesn't accept a corrupt president. I'm willing to do any sacrifice so this country has a full democracy, I'm leaving a testimony that is possible to fight to the deepest force within a human for what is right and just"

In the afternoon there was talk that the impeachment would fail because DC deputy Jorge Sabag was in Chillán (500km south of Valparaiso) waiting for a test result and he initally said that he wouldn't go to vote. DC whipped him and he decided to travel to Congress in Valparaiso to vote yes. There, at the entrance, where the regional health authorities (SEREMI) waiting for him to stop him since he hadn't waited for the test result (I don't think they are legally able to do that since his only symptom was fatigue). With all the press waiting together with the SEREMI at the entrance, they stopped the car and it was... Gabriel Ascencio, the DC whip, who did that as a distraction so Sabag could enter on foot and incognito to Congress (he did enter)

Now Giorgio Jackson is on his way to Congress and the press is literally chasing him on the highway.

[kaoras]

Piñera has been impeached, with exactly 78 votes. This thing is doomed in the Senate but all of this has been pure epicness, Naranjo is a hero.

Now, I'm suddenly VERY interested in the results of district 18, where Naranjo is running for re-election

[kaoras]

Parisi tested positive for COVID so he will not be in the last debate and will not arrive to Chile before the first round.

[kaoras]

Lower middle class, apolitical, disaffected or disechanted with politics - thus vulnerable to Parisi's textbook populist and "anti-elite" message -, believed by experts to focus around the 30-40 age group with an apparent stronger base in the North that dates back to 2013.

Back in 2013 his base of independent voters leaned more to the center-right (hence why most, but not all, went for Matthei against Bachelet), but polling suggests he's picking up voters from across the political spectrum. Although, initially, most people believe he was pulling votes from Sichel and/or Kast, apparently Boric (!) ranked first in terms of the second preference of those Parisi voters, which sort of makes sense given the anti-establishment political climate.

That seems to be the objective answer, since, in strictly personal terms, I have a very low opinion of anyone who buys into his nonsense. Just as his campaign resembles a pyramid scheme, his online supporters behave very much like a cult.

Yeah pretty much. If anything the whole virtual campaign thing is holding him back, populism is a very fertile ground right now.

I read Parisi platform with a friend who is voting from him (he was previously going to vote for Kast so I didn't bother hin, tbh I was just grateful) and is full of inoffensive vaguely populist stuff, it doesn't look right-wing at all. I would say that most Parisi voters are not going to vote for anyone but him and the rest is going to split evenly between left and right.

[kaoras]

The sexual harassment accusations against Boric (from his time in the student movement) are cropping up again, just like before the primaries. Maybe they’ll have an effect this time, now that he’s in the spotlight.

Given that is old, the press isn't giving that much coverage. It's on the rest of the candidates to make use of it or it will fade again. I also haven't seen anyone talking about this outside Twitter (where is mainly bots)

[kaoras]

PC endorses the recent Nicaraguan elections, Boric “invite them to retract” their statement. Classic Apruebo Dignidad.

Well, PC president said that it was a rogue declaration apparently. Also a mini PC generational warfare with Vallejos and Cariola condemning Nicaragua and older guys like Hugo Gutiérrez defending it.

[kaoras]

Kast said that Pinochet was different from Nicaragua and Venezuela because he did "elections" and "didn't jail the opposition" (Of course he did, in fact, jail the opposition, including Michelle Bachelet for what its worth, but he also tortured them, killed them, throw them into the sea, burn them alive, rape them with dogs and exploited them with dynamite). Chilean Right at its finest, really.

So well, RIP any advantage Kast could get out of Nicaragua in the debate on Monday, lol.

[kaoras]

Several forbidden polls have been leaked.

CADEM (without undecideds)

Kast 32 | Boric 26 (+2) | Parisi 13 | Provoste 12 | Sichel 9 (-1) | MEO 7 (+1) | Artés 1 (-2)

Second Round, Kast 38 (-6) Boric 37 (-3)

Activa (without undecideds)

Kast 31,2 (+1.6) | Boric 29 (+3.3) | Parisi 12.9 (+2.1) | Provoste 10.7 (-4) | Sichel 8.2 (-4.1) | MEO 4.5 (-0.4) | Artes 3.5 (+1.5)

La Cosa Nostra

Kast 32 (+2) | Boric 31,7 (-4,3) | Provoste 13,8 | Sichel 11,1 | Parisi 6,5 (+1,5) | MEO 3,5 | Artés, 1,4)

Second Round: Boric 51 (-3) Kast 49 (+3)

Ok I guess, basically converging/herding

I honestly don't buy any of this. But the debate tomorrow will be decisive. In 2017 the last week debate sunk Guillier.

[kaoras]

And Kast starts with a big Cuban flag. This is so dumb.

Oh, he also had that Boric photo with a T-shirt with dead Jaime Guzman. He can't shine as before with so many people attacking.

[kaoras]

Kast looks so...cartoonish? Is weird.

[kaoras]

First part over. No clear losers or winners IMO.

[kaoras]

Kast kinda bad at the economy, especially when pressed by Sichel. But nothing fatal. So far this debate is still status quo.

[kaoras]

The sexual harassment accusations against Boric (from his time in the student movement) are cropping up again, just like before the primaries. Maybe they’ll have an effect this time, now that he’s in the spotlight.

Given that is old, the press isn't giving that much coverage. It's on the rest of the candidates to make use of it or it will fade again. I also haven't seen anyone talking about this outside Twitter (where is mainly bots)

And here it comes…

He came across as well as was possible.

Kast very bad at a question concerning benefits for only married women (In Chile very few people get married, 75% of births are out of wedlock)

[kaoras]

Could have been worse for him, but Kast clearly lost his cool at least twice (including the gratuitous question to one of the moderators).

Not that he'll gain anything from the debate, but I'm pleased enough - or feel mostly represented by - with Sichel's performance and tone. I'll probably just vote for him and then go null in the Kast-Boric runoff.

Can't see Provoste getting the surge she's aiming for in spite of hard she tries. If anything, I wouldn't be surprised if Ominami gained a couple of points in spite of some arrogant answers.

Yeah, those are my thoughts as well. The problem with MEO is that: 1)Boric is doing fine 2) most of the left still doesn't consider MEO seriously 3) Every leftist is terrified of Kast and mainly see Boric as the only choice (to much chagrin of many)

Provoste is totally absent.

[kaoras]

Kast petulantly denied that his program said that he was opening new carbon thermoelectrics. The journalist read his program. He said that the program was referring to "new thermoelectrics that aren't going to exist" and were Bachelet's (?) and then denied his program.

Jesus, that is easily the worst moment of the night.

[kaoras]

I think Sichel won the debate. Boric second by default. This is going to be very interesting.