Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

Interesting tidbit about Sichel, I will take note. As for anectodal evidence, I brought Narvaez to my family and their reactions were basically: "who was she again?" followed by "if Bachelet supports her she has my vote" (though we are as hardcore Bacheletist as it gets). Her biggest problem right now is that nobody remembers her and a change.org signature isn't exactly the most noticeable endorsement for the nonpolitical engaged (where Bachelet tends to be more popular). I think it will take a while before she takes off, but steamrolling Insulza in a possible PS primary could help with that.

[kaoras]

I have to admit Sichel suddenly appearing to be popular - although he did poll well as a minister - is unexpected, but if it helps (purely anecdotal evidence) when I brought up his name in a number of conversations I was surprised to hear a positive reaction. As to him polling well among right-wing voters, maybe it's an issue of pragmatism, in the sense that he (theoretically) seems like someone who would appeal to centrist voters and expand Chile Vamos whilst not being ideologically suspicious - unlike say, Desbordes and Lavin - by virtue of not having outlined a lot of specific stances.

Hmm, I read the theory on Twitter that Sichel is an Allamand-Larraín operation against Mario Desbordes. Some dirigents are also asking RN council to give freedom of action to support Sichel. What do you think of that?  

[kaoras]

Will there be any restrictions on who is allowed to contest Indigenous seats (like, only independents or community organizations) or will "national" parties be able to take part too? If it's the latter, do you have an idea who the seats could go to?

Candidates must run only as individuals, but members of political parties can run for those seats too, although they have to follow the same requisites. Mapuche, Aymara and Diaguita candidates need the support of either 3 communities / 5 indigenous associations / 1 traditional leadership / or 120 signatures of indigenous people (of their same people) registered in the Indigenous Development Corporation list. Other peoples need only 1 community/association or 60 signatures.

The traditional communities have had a lot of problems registering candidates because of the short time they were given (until January 11th).

I don't know how those seats could go. Aymaras are very right-leaning and Mapuche who live in rural communities lean slightly to the right according to studies even if their political leadership is overwhelming left-wing. So I have no idea, left-leaning parties have better infrastructure to run candidates, but I don't think anyone can say anything with confidence at this stage.

[kaoras]

The political news this week has been all about Sichel and Narvaez. The last Activa poll (fieldwork ended right before Bachelet support for Narvaez) actually has Sichel surging, so I guess this is for real.

Lavin 12,7
Jiles 11,9
Jadue 9,1
Matthei 7,2
Sichel 6,2 (up from 1,6)

Likely voters:

Jadue 13,7
Jiles 13,2
Lavin 11,5
Matthei 8,9
Sichel 5,7

As Lumine mentioned, Sichel reached an accord with senator and also candidate Francisco Chahúan (RN) for "fair play" and to consolidate a "centre axis" in Chile Vamos. RN vice-president (close to Allamand) is pushing more aggressively for freedom of action in the party.

On the Narvaez front, Bachelet endorsement has caused a snowball effect within the PS, even many deputies, and senators that signed the petition for Alvaro Elizalde last week are now in team Narvaez, notably senator Isabel Allende which is important since she is the leader of an important internal faction within PS and could help to secure open primaries. Is honestly kinda surreal all the buzz and non-stop talk about someone that hasn't even confirmed that she wants to run for president (although is almost secure that she will announce formaly after new year). El Mostrador said that Bachelet is planning a more potent gesture for Narvaez to elevate her name recognition.

[kaoras]

From a purely electoral point of view including JAK that way is likely the best option. I doubt there are many people who are still planning to vote for Chile Vamos this year that will be turned off by Kast. Besides, the option is the integration of known figures so (probably) no crazy lunatics there, and it will favor them in the seat distribution because of the crazy division of the left (Why the Humanists and Ecologists run alone again? I would have thought they would at least pact with each other).

I think what could be more damaging for the right is the Felices y Forrados list of independents (which is supported by a kinda shady business that has gained popularity because they are usually at odds with the private pension funds, is a long story). Some analysts say that it could gain traction from the Errazuriz-Parisi- populist -vaguely right-leaning electorate. (There is some leftist wishful thinking in that train of thought but given how "traditional" the Chile Vamos list is shaping out to be, I think there's definitely a market for that)
 

[kaoras]

Narvaez won't make any movement until after the PS council meeting on January 16th which will decide the mechanism to select their presidential candidate. I think that's kinda dumb considering almost all of PS has already fallen behind her but apparently she doesn't want to risk her gig at UN for nothing .

She was polled on Criteria and got 7% in an all-left primary poll with weird wording, higher than Elizalde and Insulza (4% both). It's fine for a start considering her abysmal name ID, but as I said earlier, it will take a while and she will need a more noticeable endorsement from Bachelet and an internal primary within PS to get herself known (PS insiders say that she could take up to 90% of the vote in an open primary against Insulza and I can totally see that tbh)

[kaoras]

The Unity list between Chile Vamos and Republicanos in 8 districts was approved by RN and Evopoli. Republicanos will compete with 10 candidates. I'm not sure if in the other districts they are still going to run separately. In any case, a clear contrast with the absolute chaos of the left. They honestly deserve everything they get.

 
In other things, primary polls by DataInfluye:



Narvaéz leads in Constituent Unity, a three-way tie in Chile Vamos (but including JAK, without him Matthei would probably lead) and Jadue crushing Jiles in a hypothetical FA-PC primary (which I insist, Jiles isn't part of FA nor PC...). Only FA candidate that has said he wants to run, Marcelo Díaz, is at expectacular 0%.

[kaoras]

The Unity list between Chile Vamos and Republicanos in 8 districts was approved by RN and Evopoli. Republicanos will compete with 10 candidates. I'm not sure if in the other districts they are still going to run separately. In any case, a clear contrast with the absolute chaos of the left. They honestly deserve everything they get.

Would that present an opening for Ciudadanos/Sentido Futuro/Amplitud/whatever they're calling themselves today?

Ciudadanos is in Unidad Constituyente and Amplitud doesn't exist anymore, in fact, one of their main figures was Sebestián Sichel . Danger for the Right will come in form of independent candidatures and small parties (I read today about the inscription of a Conservative Cristian Party list lol). The always godawful pundit commentariat seems sure that the independents will only affect the left but there's plenty of dissafected rightwingers out there looking for alternatives.

[kaoras]

Well, the inscription of the list for the elections was a total dumpster fire, very spicy, let's see:

Constituent Elections:

Vamos Chile: Chile Vamos (UDI-RN-PRI-EVOPOLI) + Partido Republicano (PRep).

The united rightist list has caused trouble because Kast's Republican Party inscribed far-right hack Teresa Marinovic in district 10 (not one of the names that they proposed to Chile Vamos). This caused the resignation of RN Sylvia Eyzaguirre from the list (she can't actually do that) and a lot of drama in the right, saying that they wouldn't have approved the deal if they knew that Marinovic was going to be a candidate. Dissidence to RN directive has seized this chance and is pushing once again for the resignation of the pro-Desbordes party president. Kast said that Marinovic is going to continue as a candidate and is openly gloating about the goal he scored to Chile Vamos.

La Lista del Apruebo ("The Approve's list"): Unidad Constituyente (DC-PS-PPD-PR-PRO-Ciudadanos) + Nuevo Trato (PL + ex FA Members).

Centre-Left plus the former moderate wing of the Broad Front trying to catch low info voters with their name. Hilarious amount of infighting between PS and DC for municipal elections but we'll see that later.

Apruebo Dignidad ("I approve dignity"): Frente Amplio (RD-CS-C)+ Chile Digno (PC+FRVS) + Partido Igualdad (PI)

The leftist pole between FA and the Communist Party + some social movements. Having seen the composition of the list I'm going to say the Communist party is going to eat the FA alive. They tried to reach an alliance with the Humanist alliance (Dignidad Ahora, PH+PI) but they walked out after a sexual abuse allegation against a PH deputy (Which honestly seem more like a convenient excuse from FA-PC to not reach an agreement they didn't want) and ended up including only the PI

Humanist Pary (PH) : See drama above.

Ecologist Green Party (PEV) : Running alone for some reason that is beyond the comprehension of our simple minds.

Unión Patriótica (UPA- Patriotic Union): Tankies from the Communist Party - Proletary Action led by Eduardo Artés who got 0,5% in the last presidential election.

Partido de los Trabajadores Revolucionarios (PTR- Workers Revolutionary Party): Hilariously high-income Trotskyists, literally rich blonde guys role-playing as revolutionaries.

Ciudadanos Cristianos (Christian Citizens): Conservative Christian Party (PCC) + National Citizen Party (PNC)

PCC are evangelicals and PNC is a tiny RN splinter. Haven't been able to found how many candidates they will run.

Plus a myriad of independent lists like Independientes No Neutrales (center-left), Lista del Pueblo (left), Felices y Forrados (populism), and a lot of independent candidatures but we don't know how many of them will make it to the ballot, we will know in a few weeks. But for now, there a total of 78! lists, you can check them all here: https://www.servel.cl/sorteo-del-orden-de-las-listas-declaradas-para-elecciones-de-abril-de-2021/

[kaoras]

These are the electoral pacts for the Municipal Elections:



Unidad Constituyente ended up in flames over the comuna of Quinta Normal in Santiago, disputed by PS and DC. This ended up breaking the alliance for mayoral elections with Unidad Por el Apruebo on one hand (PS-PPD-PR, Convergencia Progresista) and Unidos por la Dignidad (DC-PRO-CIU). PS and DC will fight each other in 6 comunas and some regional PS branches (like Maule) will not give support to DC candidates in retaliation. So yeah, Is highly unlikely that PS and DC will be on the same list for parliamentary elections in November.

Why there's so many lists for Councils elections? Because that way the can run more candidates. Chile Vamos will have 4 different lists, one for each party, Constituent Unity will have 3 (PS-PPD; PR;  DC-PRO-CIUD). Partido Liberal is obligated to run with Frente Amplio because they haven't left the coalition by the time they did the municipal primaries.

The only other party in that list that I had not mentioned is Nuevo Tiempo which is also an evangelical party.

[kaoras]

Paula Narváez is officially IN for the presidential race.  Jose Miguel Insulza left the race saying he didn't have enough support and it seems likely that PS will nominate Narvaés without primaries. (A primaries would be good for her to raise its name ID but no one seems willing to be the sacrificial lamb)

At this point, unless she ends up showing herself as a terrible campaigner and ends up in flames I'm fairly confident she will be the candidate from the Centre-Left/Unidad Constituyente. (and being a terrible campaigner never stopped Guillier from being nominated so...). Narváez is seen with good eyes by the PC (who have a soft spot for Bacheletismo) and reportedly by FA so it could open the door to a united primary. But is the Chilean left we are talking about so I doubt that's going to happen.

Also: Felipe Kast (EVOPOLI) will not run. EVOPOLI might run former party president Francisco Undurraga. Meanwhile, FA keeps searching for candidates since Beatriz Sanchez will run for the constitutional convention instead, some names like Patricia Muñoz (Ombudsman for children) and Gabriel Boric are being floated around.

[kaoras]

Update on the presidential race: 

In the PS, they decided to do a primary, but since they will give candidates just one week to get 500 signatures or 50 endorsements from party officials, Paula Narvaéz is almost sure to be the only candidate and therefore will be proclaimed next week.

In the DC, senator Ximena Rincón won the internal primary with 60% of the vote against former minister Alberto Undurraga. Rincón is from the left-wing of the DC and hasn't ruled out a primary with communist Daniel Jadue, but I will believe in a united primary when I see it. Turnout was 25k, down from 56k in 2013.

RN proclaimed Mario Desbordes with an enormous amount of internal drama that I can't be bothered to explain (though is quite interesting), the other potential candidate, Francisco Chahuán declined his candidacy and suspended his membership in the party accusing Desbordes of an "operation" against him (which is funny because Chahúan himself is a half-hearted operation against Desbordes, I'm going to be absolutely shocked when Chahúan endorses Sichel). Also, no freedom of action for Sichel lovers / Allamand-Larraín wing .

PPD will do internal primaries next week. Candidates are Heraldo Muñoz, Francisco Vidal, and Jorge Tarud. It will be either Muñoz or Vidal, most likely Muñoz.

EVOPOLI is very likely to run finance minister Ignacio Briones. That sounds like a terrible idea since he is very unpopular since he died in the AFP private pension hill, but whatever.

For the Constituent Elections, several lists had a lot of problems that will have to be sorted in the next few days. When the dust is settled I will give an update on that. SERVEL rejected 14 lists presented by Felices y Forrados (inadmissible, so they are out for good) and the whole Humanist Party list for not complying with the 5% quota of candidates with disabilities but PH could still fix that (though I hope they don't)

[kaoras]

More presidential updates, because SERVEL is still not done with the lists!

Paula Narvaez was officially nominated by the Socialist Party.

Heraldo Muñoz won the PPD primary with 54% against 43% for Francisco Vidal (and 2% for Tarud, lmao, he wasn't even able to vote for himself). The process itself was a sh**tshow with acussations of "machines" in behalf of Muñoz (is an internal election, duh, what else do you expect) and even rigging, but they don't seem very eager to continue the infighting. Muñoz isn't warm to the idea of a joint primary with PC and FA so that option is probably dead.

Muñoz and Narvaez will face each other in a pre-primary before the legal primaries of Unidad Constituyente. They say is a tradition that PS and PPD always have the same presidential candidate (translation: they don't want the DC to roll over them like in the municipal primaries) and have invited PRO and PL to that pre-contest since both parties also want to have presidential nominees because why not.

After Narvaez irruption, all the Unidad Constituyente candidates have been dancing around saying very unconvincingly that they are totally bacheletists and how great Bachelet was which is the easily the most pleasing and hilarious development in Chilean Politics for me since 2013.

As a side note, PL is in a Matrioshka that Spain's PCE could only dream of. PL is inside of Nuevo Trato which is inside of the Social-Democratic Pole which is inside of Unidad Constituyente.

On the Right: Ignacio Briones was nominated by EVOPOLI. That was really fast. Nothing else really besides the neverending drama in RN which I can't quite grasp.

[kaoras]

This is an older post, but I couldn't help noticing something:

Partido de los Trabajadores Revolucionarios (PTR- Workers Revolutionary Party): Hilariously high-income Trotskyists, literally rich blonde guys role-playing as revolutionaries.

How strong is the correlation between race (if that's the correct word for it) and income in Chile? Like, is there a significant number of "visibly indigenous" middle class people or "white trash"?

According to genetic studies, low-income people generally have more indigenous ancestry than high-income people and incidentally is fairly obvious that rich people tend to be more "white" and European looking. However, in Chile mixing is so high that in urban areas is really difficult to, say, tell who has an indigenous last name just by their appearance. Obviously, there are some recognizable "traits" and mainly in rural communities you can find people "stereotypically indigenous" but there are tons and tons of "white-passing" indigenous (to use a U.S. term), including me who I'm registered in CONADI. You also have a lot of low-key racism, whiter is considered better, and is awfully common to hear that "I was whiter when I was a baby" o "your baby, fortunately salió blanquito", especially among low-income people. Of course, mixing being so high you can find literally anything, I have a cousin that is half indigenous and he is blond lol.

There is a significant indigenous middle class but I don't know if you would call it "visible" using the common understanding of the term. Recently there are people that form "indigenous" communities in cities, but most of them are people who left their communities to study and have integrated (while still maintaining indigenous pride) or people who can trace indigenous ancestry / have an evident indigenous last name but otherwise are totally indistinguishable from non indigenous people in their customs.

Most of the rural indigenous communities are very poor but there are exceptions obviously.

The relationship of all of that with voting is a kinda muddled topic since there isn't much research on that. The main predictor of voting in Chile is income, which behaves like an inverted U, the left being generally stronger in the middle-class areas. This however hides the fact that the relationship is fairly linear in urban zones (less income= more leftwing) and the rural poor areas are the ones who vote for the right.

[kaoras]

Okay, time for some updates.

Presidential race is boring. There's some controversy on the opposition about the PS-PPD pre-primary, PPD is fairly divided about it. Infamous Guido Guirardi (PPD) proposed doing it instead of the Unidad Constituyente primary, excluding the DC, which is funny, but not going to happen. But maybe DC president takes a hint a tone down the anti-PC holier than thou rhetoric which has become unbearable, because at this rate the DC is going to be left alone for parliamentary elections (well, maybe with PRO hilariously enough).

Campaign for municipal and constituent elections has started. The government is studying doing the election on 2 days because of the 4 different ballots with dozens of candidates each, others have proposed doing it on 2 separate weekends, maybe something will come out of it.

Tres Quintos Did an updated projection for the Constituent Election for the 138 regular seats.

Lista del Apruebo: 60
Vamos Chile: 53
Apruebo Dignidad: 22
Independientes No Neutrales: 2
Ecologists: 1

This projection is based on the 2017 parliamentary elections results with a ton of educated guesses (not like they could do any other thing since Chile doesn't really do polls for party vote)

What I found interesting is that this projection assumes that the right (Vamos Chile) will only lose 3% from the 2017 parliamentary elections which is fairly optimistic I would say. I found it interesting because the right, in their own words, is only expecting to get 4 seats for the reserved indigenous seats. 57 is not that far above the 1/3 of seats, 51 (The Constituent Convention will operate with a 2/3 quorum).

The 1/3 discussion is way overrated since is not like the DC and company are going to vote for anything radical anyway, but the psychological impact would be huge.

[kaoras]

Doing the elections in 2 days (Saturday and Sunday) got rejected by lack of quorum (fell 10 votes short of 2/3 required). It will now go to mixed committee to see if it can be saved. Another proposal is delaying mayoral and council elections to the second round of gubernatorial elections in May.

The campaign has started but I see a lot of indecision, especially regarding the constituent election. Political Analyst consensus is that Vamos por Chile should do well, being the most voted list with 30% of the vote and 40% of the seats thanks to opposition dispersion. They see Lista del Apruebo even or a bit behind at 25-30% and Apruebo Dignidad at 15-20%. They see an independent list taking up to 30% of the vote but getting very few seats due to vote dispersion. (A poll said that 40% is planning on voting for independent lists, but I don't think it will go that high).

My rule of thumb for Chilean politics is that what is going to happen is exactly the opposite of whatever the analyst consensus is, but well, we'll see.

BTW, Lumine, have you seen anecdotal evidence of rightist voters planning not to vote for Vamos por Chile list?. I would guess that the type of voters in your district would tend to be more loyal but I'm still curious if you see some defection.

[kaoras]

Personally, I'm betting we'll actually be getting 25-28% in the constituents - even if our mayors overperform -, the Lista del Apruebo will get first place (barely) and all the independents and small lists will get far more votes than people expect, only to be kept out of the Convention through the system and vote dispersion.

So we have basically the exact same prognostic for the elections then. Anecdotally in Valdivia the UDI mayor is really scared of an independet ex-RN candidate, but the left's candidates are so awful I think he might win anyway. I'm seriously considering voting for the FA candidate, that's how bad it is. If this country had serious polling I would just vote for whoever had a higher chance to win, but we are in Chile. For governor elections there is some polling, Orrego is winning in the Metropolitan region, Aedo (ind. ex-DC) in Bio-Bio and Tuma (PPD) in Araucanía.

[kaoras]

The constituent and municipal election will be done in 2 days of voting, after all, April 10th-11th. This is because of the record number of candidates and the gigantic 4 ballots. Observers will be able to stay at the voting centers overnight. I can see Kast crying out "fraud" from kilometers away.

The PS-PPD pre-primary is as good as dead. Heraldo Muñoz proposed doing an opinion poll instead which I think speaks for itself about the strategic skills of his campaign. Narvaez obviously rejected that idea. In the end, I think they will both go to the centre left primary in July, and Narvaez is favored according to polling even when Muñoz is factored in. Also, after acting as insufferable jerks, the DC is shocked that PS is supporting FA mayoral candidates instead of DC ones.

[kaoras]

Today is Piñera second government third anniversary. He announced some COVID relief and made a balance about his administration. What caught my attention is that the only mention he made to the social uprising was that he faced an irrational wave of violence.

Piñera and most of the right still haven't made any serious attempt to understand the subjacent causes of the violence. They are still stuck with their earlier rhetoric that the whole thing was an orchestrated attempt to overthrown them. That's why they weren't and will never be able to deal with the violence, as exemplified by the removal of the statue of general Baquedano from the plaza that was the epicenter of protest and has protest and violence every Friday. The Army and security forces, specially Carabineros, are totally tone-deaf too and don't understand why so many people hate them, the Army released a statement calling the protesters "anti-Chileans" (which is rich coming from an institution that has only killed Chileans since 1890). There hasn't been a serious attempt to be accountable for the human rights violation, the killings, tortures, and widespread during the uprising. The Government has only unconditional support to offer to security forces so they don't feel the need to change anything. And the Right still thinks that FA and PC control the protesters, that if they only "condemned violence" (which they do) then it would stop.

They still can't understand that people have many frustrations with the political and economic system, and it showed in the Reject campaign and in the constituent election to a certain extent. Until some serious changes are made violence won't be stopped. But the problem is that they haven't even made the attempt to make even symbolic gestures of their own will. The constituent plebiscite and elections only came to be after an extremely violent general strike and many in the right now that the time has passed feel that it was a mistake to sign that accord. What Piñera and the right have shown to the people in the last 2 years is that the only way to get some concessions from them is to set everything on fire and scare the sh*t out of them, is a self-defeating loop.

[kaoras]

La Franja Electoral is here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQ2nSxMrofY | Apruebo Dignidad, Lista del Apruebo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3a3vRJW4nk | Vamos por Chile.

Is as meaningless as always. I found the communist one to be the best even if appeals only to the faithful. Also, the time allocated to indigenous candidates is hilariously short.

[kaoras]

"Electoral expert", deputy Pepe Auth (not exactly known for his accuracy) is projecting that Chile Vamos could get as few as 0 regions for the gubernatorial elections.

His projection is:

Unidad Constituyente: 10-12 regions, comprising 58-63% of the total population
Center Left Independents: 2-3 regions, comprising 12-16% of the population
Frente Amplio: 0-1 regions and 0-11% of population (Valparaíso)
Chile Vamos: 0-3 regions and 0-15% of population.

I have to say that Chile Vamos with 0 regions is my wishful thinking prediction but is not totally out of the realm of possibilities. Is an open secret that Catalina Parot (EVOPOLI) is way behind Orrego (DC) in the Metropolitan Region and a poll in Araucanía, the most right-wing region of the country, had PPD Eugenio Tuma ahead with 30% and Chile Vamos candidate in single digits.

[kaoras]

There is some talk about delaying the elections due the worsening COVID situation. The number of ICU hospital beds available is very low and keeps dropping and the number of active cases is near historic highs.

Delaying these elections further would be a total mess considering the tight electoral schedule and an endless number of legal complications that would ensue. That's why no one wants to delay them, but the talk doesn't stop.

[kaoras]

Chile's vaccination rate seems to be pretty good - will this help the governing right?

Maybe, the process has been widely praised, though save for one pollster (CADEM) Piñera approval has remained stuck in the low teens. Another factor is that we are currently in the worst wave of the pandemic and a lot of municipalities in the capital are going back to lockdown, which could drown the success of the vaccination drive.

[kaoras]

Gabriel Boric was proclaimed as presidential candidate by his party Convergencia Social a few days ago. Boric is basically "Plan C" after Beatriz Sanchez, Fernando Atria and other names declined to run.

Boric was one of the student leaders from the 2011 protest and was elected deputy (running as independent) in 2013. He was very critical of Bachelet second government, was a founder of FA, and his movement fused into CS. He signed the Constitutional Accord as an individual (since he couldn't get his party behind).

_{I wish him the worst, entitled whiny rich boy}

[kaoras]

Even though the government insists that the elections will not be moved, the critical COVID situation in the country could make a delay inevitable. ICUs are at their limit capacity and most regions keep breaking records of new infections.

On one hand, I really want to be done with these elections as soon as possible, but the situation really looks very dire.