Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

Was the original understanding that Narvaez would be the only candidate for the former Concertacion parties?

No, the original understanding was doing legal primaries, parallel to those of Apruebo Dignidad and Chile Vamos. Those would be between Narvaez, Heraldo Muñoz (PPD), Maldonado, Pablo Vidal (PL) and Ximena Rincón from the DC.

This all went to *** when PS tried to join the Apruebo Dignidad primary, Vidal and Muñoz backed down in favour of Narvaez who was supposed to represent them in the primary against Boric and Jadue. PC didn't want the PPD so this accord collapsed at the last minute and no legal primary was held.

DC also had tried to withdraw Ximena Rincón candidacy in favor of Provoste because she polled better according to one CADEM poll. She ended withdrawing but Provoste took until today to announce her candidacy.

Keep in mind this whole saga was very messy, so there are a lot of details and nuances lost there. There's quite a bit about this on this thread though.

[kaoras]

Unidad Constituyente finally decided to do in-person primaries on August 21st. Provoste (DC) will face Narvaez (PS) and Maldonado (PR). They could be joined by Marco Enriquez Ominami (if the courts allow it, he is under investigation for illegal financing) or Alejandro Guillier for PRO.

Also, the two big chilean newspapers, El Mercurio and La Tercera (both right wing), after singing the praises for Provoste for months both today ran stories and opinion pieces about how her candidacy is going to struggle with Sichel and Boric in the picture, that she should have declared months ago etc etc. The factical powers appear to have decided that Provoste has outlived his usefulness now that Sichel is a thing. 

[kaoras]

Also, everyone's favorite poll, CADEM, with the first post primaries presidential poll.

Boric: 30
Sichel: 25
Provoste: 12
Kast: 8
Sharp: 4
Narvaez: 3
Maldonado: 1

For second round, Boric 46-Sichel 42 | Boric 46-Provoste 34 | Sichel 45- Provoste 35

For Unidad Constituyente Primary they have

Provoste 50 (59 among leftists)
Narvaez 12 (15)
Maldonado 7 (5)

Only 21% say they would not vote. Honestly, UC numbers are ridiculous to the point of unbelievability. (Provoste going up with leftists, everyone saying they will vote...)

[kaoras]

I’ve seen Ancalao’s name bandied about as another potential non-Sharp candidate for the Lista del Pueblo (IIRC Sharp said it wouldn’t be him). Is there any truth to that or is it just internet rumors?

(I think the LdP running a candidate like this is somewhat debasing the ideals it professes to stand for, but what do I know.)

It has been tossed around without much substance. I really doubt they would choose him. I would bet on a nobody tbh.

[kaoras]

The game’s afoot for the expanded vice presidency of the Constitutional Convention (two indigenous vice presidents and five others, in addition to Jaime Bassa). Looks likely that the non-indigenous VPs will be elected proportionally, over the objections of the far left, which will allow the right to earn a seat. The FA will not be presenting a candidate as they already have Jaime Bassa

Many on the right also didn't want to have a vicepresidency because... That way they can cry more about how sidelined they are? I don't know

[kaoras]

AD still trying to tamp down tensions between the PC and FA, currently over the FA not working (hard enough) to get a PC candidate nominated to one of the convention vice presidencies, as well as other votes when they weren’t fully aligned with the PC. I really don’t like the mixing of outside political debates into the work of the convention, but such is life.

Also Boric was briefly attacked during a visit to the prison unit where several prisoners of the revolt were held, and the prisoners refused to meet with him due to his prior support of the anti-barricades law.

Jadue even floated around the possibility of giving freedom of action in the presidential election of FA doesn't get in line (they have been working mainly with PS and INN). PC president Guillermo Tellier quickly shut him down but apparently there is a serious possibility of AD going in 2 lists for the parliamentary elections.

There are several dynamics at play here: On one hand, Jadue and Tellier are in different wings of the party, Tellier is from the pragmatic sector that has controlled the party since forever while Jadue is more of a hardliner. Jadue candidacy has given more power to the hardliners and party leadership have acted accordingly since they think this is more beneficial electorally, though Tellier and Jadue are still rivals (not that you ever going to see an all out public conflict since these are the communist we are talking about).

Related to this, PC has been trying to co-opt the Lista del Pueblo by allying with them in the convention and the 2 lists thing is basically a bet on a formal pact with LDP for the parliamentary (because LDP hardliners are never going to be in an alliance with Boric and co but PC hopes that they can accept the communists). I don't know if that's going to work because the purism of the people who controll La lista del Pueblo should not be underestimated (they have had 2 defections so far related to that).

Splitting the vote so much in the parliamentary election is going to be the disaster that didn't happen at the constitutional election. Incumbent power alone should push the right closer to 30% than to the pathetic 20% they got in May. The left better hope that Partido Republicano throws a good 4-5% of the vote to the trash and that whatever Lorenzini and Parisi ends up presenting steals more votes from the right than from them.

[kaoras]

Did anyone watch the UC debate?

I watched some parts. Narváez has more concrete proposal (although she is being mocked by her "Plan Marshall" to recover the economy), Provoste has better oratory and Maldonado is just salty that UC didn't do legal primaries and that they left him waiting the day of the inscription, lol.

[kaoras]

Did anyone watch the UC debate?

Tried, but it was supremely boring (the journalists taking so long to make the questions didn't help). Some are joking that Boric won, which, considering the apparently low viewership numbers, seems like a fair assessment of the situation.

It wasn't that bad actually in terms of viewership. It got 10 points against 11 for Chile Vamos and 14 for Apruebo Dignidad (the CHV-CNN ones, which were also on just 2 channels).

[kaoras]

Did anyone watch the UC debate?

Tried, but it was supremely boring (the journalists taking so long to make the questions didn't help). Some are joking that Boric won, which, considering the apparently low viewership numbers, seems like a fair assessment of the situation.

It wasn't that bad actually in terms of viewership. It got 10 points against 11 for Chile Vamos and 14 for Apruebo Dignidad (the CHV-CNN ones, which were also on just 2 channels).

Do you think that bodes anything for participation in the primary, or has that ship already sailed due to the lack of institutional support?

At the end of the day it will be very hard to even come close to the turnout of the legal primaries. Most cities will have at best one polling station, there are no legal propaganda, franja. The debates will help but I think the expected range of 300-500k seems about right.

[kaoras]

Oh... Yeah, I remember him from the time he was in PC, so is not a total nobody (well, he is for 95% of the population). Surprised to see them pick someone with so much partisan "baggage". Picking him at least assures that the candidacy will not turn out as a dumpster fire. They are probably targeting Jadue voters.

Although, If they weren't going to nominate an indigenous woman as they wanted, why not just pick Sharp?

[kaoras]

Kast's Partido Republicando and Partido Conservador Cristiano just announced a joint list for the parliamentary elections. Is going to be called Frente Social Cristiano (Social Christian Front).It appears that they could still reach accords with other minor parties such as PNC.

PCC ran with Partido Nacional Ciudadanos as "Ciudadanos Cristianos" in the constituent elections in districts in southern Chile. On average they got 4,5% where they ran and reached 7,45% in District 21 (Los Angeles-Arauco). That district is their best shot at winning a seat (The republicans also elected councilors there) together with D11 (The ultra-rich part of Santiago).

[kaoras]

Apruebo Dignidad confirmed to be going with two separate lists in November, with the PH and Partido Igualdad splitting off (and maybe even supporting Cuevas?). I haven’t yet seen any word on what the PC will do - maybe it’ll end up being 1+ lists.

Well, PH was never part of Apruebo Dignidad, they got excluded at the last minute because of a sexual abuse scandal with one of their deputies, and only PI was included. What is being split is actually Chile Digno which is the mini coalition PC has inside Apruebo Dignidad, that included PI, FREVS, and many small movements.

Also, La Lista del Pueblo is having a lot of drama regarding Cuevas candidacy. I can't be bothered to explain it but it includes controversial assemblies, boycotts, hacking and much more. Apparently, they want to do a primary before selecting him (against who, how?) Stay tuned

[kaoras]

Apruebo Dignidad confirmed to be going with two separate lists in November, with the PH and Partido Igualdad splitting off (and maybe even supporting Cuevas?). I haven’t yet seen any word on what the PC will do - maybe it’ll end up being 1+ lists.

Well, PH was never part of Apruebo Dignidad, they got excluded at the last minute because of a sexual abuse scandal with one of their deputies, and only PI was included. What is being split is actually Chile Digno which is the mini coalition PC has inside Apruebo Dignidad, that included PI, FREVS, and many small movements.

Also, La Lista del Pueblo is having a lot of drama regarding Cuevas candidacy. I can't be bothered to explain it but it includes controversial assemblies, boycotts, hacking and much more. Apparently, they want to do a primary before selecting him (against who, how?) Stay tuned

LMAO how are they gonna do a primary in less than two weeks?

This just in: By signatures at Servel. Apparently the one who gets more signatures wins. (Again, who participates in this? What happens if none ends up clearing the threshold, what Cuevas have to say about this?)

[kaoras]

Parliamentary News:

PC and FA are close to an agreement for a common list. So far the deal would be 56%-44% split FA-Chile Digno (PC-FRVS-IC-AH). The chaos of La Lista del Pueblo appears to have played a key role in the communist decision.

Partido Igualdad (PI) and Partido Humanista (PH) will run a joint list called "Fuerza de los Pueblos" (Peoples' Force). This is basically a replica of their coalition for the municipal election called Dignidad Ahora that got 5,06% of the vote in the councilors election.

Partido Ecologista Verde (PEV) is going to run alone.

Partido de la Gente (PDG) will not do alliances with any other party.

[kaoras]

Narvaez is crushing it in the second debate of UC. Absolutely based answer about forest companies in conflict with mapuche communities: EXPROPIESE _{if necessary after a dialogue}

[kaoras]

Narvaez is crushing it in the second debate of UC. Absolutely based answer about forest companies in conflict with mapuche communities: EXPROPIESE _{if necessary after a dialogue}

The debate had a rating of 18,2, lower than Chile Vamos (29) and Apruebo Dignidad (25), though those had one more channel and were on weekdays.

While I wouldn't say that this was a game-changer, the good performance of Narvaez should give a significant morale boost to the PS machine.

[kaoras]

Regarding Pulso Ciudadano/Activa:

Good ol' Activa. In their next poll at the end of the month, Lavin will crash 10 points, and then will go up again. They must have like 2 parallel panels

This is just their normal effect on steroids. They are just not a good pollster. There are some consistent trends across different pollster though:

-Boric and Provoste are losing support to undecided. Rightists candidates have not improved significantly

-The Convention approval is significantly down. Because people get impatient and see them worried about themselves and not "doing their job" quick enough.

[kaoras]

Better late than never for Narvaez, I suppose, she does seem to have finally found a tone in which to gain visibility. Personally, I would contend the collective rhetorical turn towards the left in UC may not be as useful as they think it will be when they get to the first round - seeing as they seem determined to compete with Boric -, but it could work.

Would certainly be fun to watch if Provoste actually loses the primary and we get a repeat of a coalition falling for the "this candidate polls better" trap. The reaction from the DC alone would be hilarious to witness.

I wouldn't say is a "turn". Is just the way Narvaez and Provoste are and have always been. With Provoste is particularly jarring because a while ago when pundits were desperate to stop Jadue and Jiles,they projected things they wanted to see on Provoste, but she could easily be on PS and nobody would bat an eye.

I have no idea what will happen in the primary. I'm inclined to believe that it will not be a Provoste lanslide but other than that is very hard to tell. Narvaez has a much better ground game though. It seems that Provoste quite literally didn't make up her mind until the last minute because there were 0 preparation for her candidacy.

[kaoras]

Some Updates:

Lista del Pueblo presidential candidate will be Diego Ancalao. A grand total of 3.572 people participated in the signatures thing. Ancalao was collecting signatures since before but is still 4000 short. He has until monday.

Anti vaxxer and anti mask, Cristian Contreras, or Dr. File is in for Centro Unido (CU). His party will have a joint parliamentary list with the RN-splinter Partido Nacional Ciudadano (PNC) and the ultra pinochetists Fuerza Nacional (FN) which are basically the ones that are too extreme for Republicanos.

Tiny evangelical party Nuevo Tiempo (NT) will also have a parliamentary list in the deputies election.

The Constituional Court restored political rights for Marco Enriquez Ominami and he apparently will do yet another presidential campaign. In Unidad Constituyente is criticizing him sharply and froze talks with PRO for the parliamentary lists (which is probably a good thing for them considering that PRO has become a trash collector service for disgraced candidates)

The right has a new name: Chile Podemos +. Ok, sure, whatever. Let the jokes with Juntos Podemos / Podemos Spain / Maduro slogan beggin. Worth noticing that with all these small right-wing parties running, for the first time since 1997 they don't have a monopoly over the rightist electoral space.

[kaoras]

Talking about small right-wing parties, what sorts of people voted for Frafra in 1989, José Piñera in 1993 and Parisi in 2013? I know that they were basically right-leaning populists (though not sure about Piñera), but I mean demographically.

Those 3 actually had very different bases of support!

José Piñera is the easist. He wasn't a populist, he was more orthodox than the right itself and did well in the extremely rich areas. He won 23% in Vitacura, 19% in Las Condes and 15% in Lo Barnechea. He also did well among the military in the Antarctica winning 20% in Cabo de Hornos.

Errazuriz in 1989 did better in rural zones in southern Chile. His best result was in traditionally right wing Araucanía with 24% where he won 2 comunas: Melipeuco and Theodoro Schmidt. His strength wasn't limited to rural areas. He ran even with Buchi in most of the cities of southern Chile. He also did well in the north in Antofagasta, Arica and Tarapacá, but not reaching the heights of the South.

Parisi in 2013 was actually stronger than Errazuriz in the north (around 20% in Arica, Tarapacá and Antofagasta) but had no particular strength in the south (He got 7% in Melipeuco and Theodoro Schmidt for example).

Parisi and Errazuriz have 2 things in common. First of all, they had strength in the Norte Grande (the regions I keep mentioning) but limited success in the Norte Chico (Atacama and Coquimbo). Historically all of northern Chile has been THE left win stronghold thanks to the mining tradicions that saw the birth of the worker's movement and the left itself. Since the return of democracy, the left has had a huge underlying problem with the north, not because the mines are gone, but because the miners are now absurdly rich. To give you an idea, right now the unions of CODELCO are threatening strike after rejecting a proposal of 31 thousand dollars in additional benefits per worker. No tradition can withstand that amount of money long term. Tarapacá shift happened under the dictatorship and now is one of the most right-wing areas of the countries (likely helped by Pinochet policies like a free tax area for commerce in Iquique). Antofagasta was clearly showings signs of malaise by 2013 and the bottom fell for the left in 2017 in all the north, even in the Norte Chico that had been more stubbornly left wing. Now, the plebiscite and the elections in May are showing that 2017 might have been a fluke, but we will have to see in November.

Now, going back to Errazuriz and Parisi, the Norte Grande is very supportive of independents and outsiders, likely helped by those rich miners who can't bring themselves to support the right. That is not the whole story though, because for example Arica doesn't have major mining industry but still behaved similar until 2017 and is hard to explain why they were both weaker in Atacama. Honestly, this whole thing with the north fascinates me and I wish there was more research.

Finally, the second thing that FraFra and Parisi have in common is that they were both weak in Santiago, specially in the traditionally rich comunas of Las Condes, Vitacura, and so on. Soft-right populism seems repulsive for cuicos.

[kaoras]

SRA YASNA PROVOSTE coming in with approx. 54%, Narvaez 31% & Maldonado 15% in the preliminary count. Don’t know how this compares with expectations but maybe someone can tell us.

Real question is if Provoste will be able to peel enough from Boric to make it into the second round. Doubtful but probably an easier lift than dislodging sickle.

Is more or less in line with the initial expectations.

[kaoras]

Also of course understandable but still very funny to watch Unidad Constituyente blame MEO for splitting the left vote when they’re doing the same thing to Boric and Apruebo Dignidad.

"Fourth time's the charm" - Marco Enriquez-Ominami, apparently.

Though seriously, how much damage can he do to either UC or AP, he's gotten less popular with every election, at the rate he's going he'd get what, 2-3%?

MEO literally buried his party, PRO will lose legal status as it was kicked out of the Unidad Constituyente* list. He should keep his tradition of losing half of his voters since the last elections.

The whole inscription thing at SERVEL has been a total clownfest (as it has become tradition). I will probably update tomorrow when the dust is settled. But there are many twists, betrayals, name changes and more.

[kaoras]

Okay, so in the end we have 9 presidential candidates, equaling the record of 2013. These are:

• Eduardo Artés (UPA): Hard left and anti-revisionist communist. Got 0,5% in 2017
• Diego Ancalao: Ex-DC, Ex-IC, Ex-FRVS, Ex PRI, Ex-PH. Now the Mapuche candidate represents what is left of La Lista del Pueblo (or at least a fraction). Some people are still mad about dumping Cuevas, but he managed to get the signatures at the last minute. This whole mess will make it hard for him to get the anti-Boric left vote.
• Gabrel Boric (Apruebo Dignidad):Left, Probably laughing somewhere at the chaos of LDP and the pitiful turnout of Unidad Constituyente.
• Marco Enriquez Ominami (PRO): Centre-Left. His messianic complex was discussed earlier. He said that if in 2 weeks Provoste polls higher than him he will step down. I have no comments to make about this clown.
• Yasna Provoste (Nuevo Pacto Social): Centre-Left. Unidad Constituyente is dead, long live to Nuevo Pacto Social. More details on that later. Might "freeze" his DC militancy.
• Gino Lorenzini (ind): Populism (kinda rightist) He founded el Partido de la Gente, then left after some drama with Parisi. He is not a clown, he is the entire circus. Proposes, among other things, to send 3 children to space each year, give vitaminic supplements according to DNA tests, and so on. In serious danger of being rejected given his past militancy in PDG.
• Franco Parisi (Partido de la Gente): Right Populism. Got 10% in 2013. Since then has veered closed to evangelical groups and some Pinochetist elements, though appears to be pivoting to standard populism this time. Has many scandals.
• Sebastián Sichel (Chile Podemos+): The right that is totally not a continuation of this government. Pivoting hard to the center, leaving space for Jose Antonio Kast
• Jose Antonio Kast (Partido Republicano): Far Right. See above. His parliamentary list could cause trouble to the right.

A random teacher from Magallanes, Sergio Tapia, appeared with the signatures and SERVEL but in the end couldn't register for undisclosed reasons.

[kaoras]

I had a huge effort post for the parliamentary lists but it got erased. Here's the abridged version:

There are 12 parliamentary lists:

• Unión Patriotica (UPA): Far Left, Support Artés, Unlikely to gain seats, could get like 1% of the vote.
• Partido de los Trabajadores Revolucionarios (PTR): Far left, Trotskysts, well organized in Antofagasta where they have a slight chance at a seat.
• Dignidad Ahora (DA): Left, coalition of Partido Humanista (PH) and Partido Igualdad (PI). They did well in May with 5% of the vote in councilors. Everyone's favourite politician, Pamela Jiles should get reelected, and maybe her husband Pablo Maltes. Other than that, is hard.
• Partido Ecologista Verde (PEV). Left. They did really well in May despite not getting any constituents. Very good results in gubernatorial and councillors, they are attracting protest votes. Should get a seat in their stronghold of Concepción Metro area but they could surprise in other districts.
• Apruebo Dignidad (AD): Left. Frente Amplio (FA) + Partido Comunista (PC) and FRVS. The list supporting Boric, their objective is being the hegemonic force in the left, targeting 35-50 deputies and 4-7 senators.
• Partido Progresista (PRO): Centre Left. Royally screwed by MEO move, alone they have 0 chances at anything. Trash collector service for the rest of the left. One of the casualties was Alejandro Guillier who joined the party a few months ago and will not go to re-election due to his now 0 options.
• Nuevo Pacto Social (NPS): The good old centre-left with a new name after kicking out PRO. DC+PS+PPD+PR+PL+NT. Supporting Yasna Provoste (to much chagrin of half of PS), they aspire to maintain their current representation, the target is 42 deputies and 10 senators. Very weak slate in Metropolitan Region for the senate.
• Partido de la Gente (PDG): Populism. This thing fields an impressive slate (in numbers), the party was a project of Parisi and Lorenzini and his building block was Lorenzini's Pyramid scheme. After a dispute with Lorenzini (who left), Parisi is now in control. How far to the right their populism will go depends on how Parisi does his campaign basically. At first glance they shouldn't get any seats, but who knows if there's a populist surge.
• Independientes Unidos (IU): Right Populism, coalition of the known anti-mask and anti-vaxxer Cristian Contreras/Dr File's Centro Unido (CU) and the RN splinter Partido Nacional Ciudadano. Cristian Contreras was going to run for president but at the last minute decided to run for senator in the Metropolitan Region. Same electoral prospects as PDG, they will hurt each other and the right as a whole.
• Chile Podemos + (CP+): Right. The new name of Chile Vamos, UDI-RN-PRI-EVOPOLI. Supporting Sichel who is totally not the continuity of this goverment. This list has a lot of recycled candidates, relatives of current politicians and an old politics feel in general (even NPS tried to bring some new faces). This could be a recipe for disaster just like the constituent elections. They say they want to keep their current representation, but most think they will be happy with a third in both chambers (very easy in the senate where they need just 4 seats and target 10).
• Nuevo Tiempo (NT): Far Right. Tiny evangelical party, against abortion, gay marriage and everything you expect. Shouldn't get anything, only running for deputies.
• Frente Social Cristiano (FSC): Far Right. Coalition of Kast's Partido Republicano (REP) and Partido Conservador Cristiano (PCC). They have a lot of candidates in the chamber of deputies but in the Senate, they only presented a list in the Metropolitan Region. Could get up to 5 seats. Obviously supporting Jose Antonio Kast Candidacy

None of the candidates supported by La Lista del Pueblo got enough signatures, just Fabiola Campillai who as mentioned above break with them. She has a good shot in the senate for The Metropolitan Region.

[kaoras]

Uh boy. Server rejected the candidacies of Gino Lorenzni and Diego Ancalao.

Lorenzini was predictable since the law states that if you want to run as independent you can't be on a political party in the 9 months prior and he was on PDG until last month.

Ancalao isn't a total surprise either since he barely managed enough signatures and there was always the possibility that some of them would get rejected. But oh boy, nobody expected it to happen in a way so spicy. Of his 35k signatures, 23k wen from a notary that hasn't operated since 2018 and whose titular died in February of this year. Servel is taking these antecedents to justice. I can hear Boric laugh from here.

So there are only 7 candidates left.