2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Hammy]

Nevada freakout time!

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1319866241247367168

The fact that it doesn't include mail voting probably skews it R as Dems are more likely to use it over in-person early voting than Republicans are.

[Hammy]

So given the massive early vote numbers, what's the likelihood of Florida, North Carolina, and Texas getting called pretty shortly after polls close?

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1321262673170960385

Uhh... Yeah... We've known this for a while. Who is this guy anyways?

Isn't Florida going to have most of their mail/early votes counted by poll closing?

Edit: looks like it got answered as I was posting.

[Hammy]

PA now at 32.3% of 2016 turnout.

Dems 1,354,624 (68.5%)
Reps 426,431 (21.6%)
Other 197,431 (10%)
= 1,978,486

Dem return rate is 70%, Rep return rate is 54%. Dem lead is now +928K. It was +881K yesterday.

I think those numbers are still lagging the real numbers.  I can't find the article but the actual numbers were higher a week ago in some of the philly suburban counties and I still don't think they've been accounted for much less the new ones that have come in.

Doesn't PA update only on Fridays or something?

[Hammy]

So far and from glancing at various utility providers, it looks like around 5% of North Georgia (this includes the ATL metro) is without power. We've still got another 2-3 hours to get through, though...

Not great, especially since I have an hour or so before the worst even gets here.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1321843494802149376

Called it. I said not to put anything past this garbage administration.

[Hammy]

Not gonna lie, the number of unreturned ballots in states like PA, WI, and FL is unsettling.

[Hammy]

Not gonna lie, the number of unreturned ballots in states like PA, WI, and FL is unsettling.

In Florida, if you request an absentee ballot for one election, you'll keep getting them for following elections. I'd also wager quite a few people who requested absentee ballots decided to early vote in person instead.

In theory, your supposed to take your ballot to a polling place so a poll worker can spoil your ballot. But in practice, as long as you don't return it, it doesn't count.

Is that probably the case elsewhere as well?

[Hammy]

Just the fact that Atlas is dismissing the closest thing we have to experts, in this thread tells you everything you need to know about it.

Literally any internet rando with a large following can claim to be an expert.

[Hammy]

I'm just going to blunt, I honestly don't care if Biden wins FL or not because far as I'm concerned Florida has already served its main purpose

Keeping Trump spending as much money as possible while preventing him from using that cash in other swing states.

The midwestern states is what I really care about and if we were seeing bad numbers in those states than I would be worried, but as it stands I can care less about FL staying on the Trump train as long as The Dems take back Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in the end

Now If Biden ends up winning FL cool but I'm not going to lose any sleep over it if he does not...

Dems had this same outlook in the Rust Belt in 2016.

[Hammy]

Found this in the 2016 thread, about five days before the election on Nov 2:

Total Ballots cast: 4,466,624

Total Vote By Mail: 2,168,750(51.4%)
Total Early Vote: 2,297,874 (48.6%)

Republicans: 1,798,954 (40.3%)
Democrats: 1,781,498 (39.9%)
NPA: 886,172 (19.8%)

Total Margin: GOP +0.39%

According to here: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

Democrats   2,992,000   40.5
Republicans   2,787,723   37.7
Minor   95,904   1.3
No Party Affiliation   1,510,040   20.4

2016: R+0.39
2020: D+2.8

2016: 17k R advantage
2020: 215k D advangate

2016 vote: R+1.19 (about 0.8% better than their early vote lead), or about 112k votes (95k better than early vote lead.)

Edit: Thank you to whoever posted the early vote tracker weeks ago, I've gotten quite a lot of use out of it regarding early vote and keeping tabs on mail ballots.

[Hammy]

If Biden ends up losing and Florida ends up being the state that could've gotten him elected, the Florida Dem Party needs to be disbanded.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1322231456178077698

He needs to get them to the post offices in Miami-Dade.

What's he doing about PA?

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1322296655560015873

Missing is 2010, which was 31%

Makes Michigan even more likely to flip--Trump's margin was only 11k votes and Wayne county saw a Dems lose 77k votes over 2012--voters who simply didn't show up at all.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1322296655560015873

Missing is 2010, which was 31%

Makes Michigan even more likely to flip--Trump's margin was only 11k votes and Wayne county saw a Dems lose 77k votes over 2012--voters who simply didn't show up at all.

I don't think people are aware how much people left Detroit since 2012. Many of those are still registered in the city because Michigan has a notoriously bad voter registration database. Nate Cohn noted this in presidential primary:
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1237852621794246656

Another why MI won’t necessarily flip before WI or PA

Primaries don't indicate election turnout. Especially since the primary in MI was far less competitive by the time it got to Michigan this year.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/BrianEntin/status/1322342655939018752

Other states need to do the same.

[Hammy]

Dems are at a 78.9% VBM return rate in PA but 18-24 only 59.9%.  Get your act together, kids.

Hey, nearly 60% is good.

That's return rate of the 18-24s who requested VBM ballots, not their overall turnout.  They're waiting until the last minute, which could be fatal in PA.

Or, they're voting in person because they don't trust the postal service.

PA vote is only around 35% or so of 2016's total, sounds more like a lot of ballots simply won't arrive on time.

[Hammy]

I think Rs in PA (and NC) overreached in trying to get the late arriving ballots canceled. It's basically caused mass paranoia among all the Ds to return their ballots sooner or via drop box, meaning that the remaining absentees might actually tilt Republican by election night.

Dems are at a 78.9% VBM return rate in PA but 18-24 only 59.9%.  Get your act together, kids.

Hey, nearly 60% is good.

That's return rate of the 18-24s who requested VBM ballots, not their overall turnout.  They're waiting until the last minute, which could be fatal in PA.

Or, they're voting in person because they don't trust the postal service.

PA vote is only around 35% or so of 2016's total, sounds more like a lot of ballots simply won't arrive on time.

There does seem like there's a 13% return rate--I just checked the stats and it's 79% for Dems and
66% for GOP.

Also are they reporting their early vote late? Their turnout vs 2016 is poor compared to the other states which are about 20% higher.

[Hammy]

Just shy of 88 Million votes. Might hit 100 Million by Tuesday.

Does early voting go through the weekend?

[Hammy]

Dems have a decent lead in Florida's early vote especially considering they had a 17k vote deficit at the end of early voting in 2016. Maybe it really doesn't hinge entirely on Miami-Dade.