COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1279906540791779334

So China Bad but he's going to believe their numbers and media over ours.

[Hammy]

I can't remember the last time that we had a double increase on a Sunday, but here we are.

Wasn't that a result of most places not reporting numbers for July 4?

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1280209106826125313

From Johns Hopkins, today:

It's almost like this guy is desperate to lose in November. Is he really too stupid to read or let someone check the numbers?

He simply doesn't care. As far as he's concerned his base are the only real Americans and thus the only people that vote, and everybody else, along with any facts that are contrary to his bubble, are the enemy.

[Hammy]

Are we ever going to get over this?

It’s only been 5-6 months but it’s really wearing on my mental stability. It’s hard to see any light at the end of this covid tunnel.

I wish people would wear freakin masks. We would be over this a lot sooner.

I don't see how you can look at this graph and not see light at the end of the tunnel.

Deaths lag by 2-4 weeks. I remember back when this started people were making the same claim that its not that bad, it wont get that bad, look at the number of cases vs deaths etc and then the number of people dying caught up.

[Hammy]

7.) What is the effective reduction in Rt solely from universal wearing of masks in public places?

Very limited, because a mask is going to have very little effect in a place like a grocery store (where social distancing is generally being observed, and personal contacts are rare).  People really just don't swap saliva or cough onto one another at grocery stores, even prior to the pandemic.

The virus is being spread through talking and breathing as well, not simply coughing, which is why it's spreading like it is. If everybody were to wear masks, they'd have >95% efficiency, and if everybody wore masks and social distanced, it would stop spreading.

But places like grocery stores allowing no masks and only having social distancing (which many people are ignoring anyway) is going to do absolutely nothing considering it's been confirmed that the virus is airborne and can spread through indoor ventilation systems.

[Hammy]

7.) What is the effective reduction in Rt solely from universal wearing of masks in public places?

Very limited, because a mask is going to have very little effect in a place like a grocery store (where social distancing is generally being observed, and personal contacts are rare).  People really just don't swap saliva or cough onto one another at grocery stores, even prior to the pandemic.

The virus is being spread through talking and breathing as well, not simply coughing, which is why it's spreading like it is. If everybody were to wear masks, they'd have >95% efficiency, and if everybody wore masks and social distanced, it would stop spreading.

But places like grocery stores allowing no masks and only having social distancing (which many people are ignoring anyway) is going to do absolutely nothing considering it's been confirmed that the virus is airborne and can spread through indoor ventilation systems.

Just out of curiosity, where'd you get the >95% efficiency number?  >95% efficiency at what?

The rest of your post doesn't make any sense.  Simply talking or breathing may expel virus, but virus particles are heavier-than-air (meaning they fall to the ground) which is why the whole "six feet apart" thing works and is even recommended in the first place.  Masks are only plausibly effective at distances less than this.  Wearing cloth masks is not going to prohibit the introduction of virus into an HVAC system, because these types of masks are not respirators (air moves through and around the mask all the time, especially the more it's used).  HVAC systems are themselves a very minor vector of disease transmission (probably because you have to have someone expelling virus directly into the intake), and I've seen no news of a significant outbreak that is thought to have been seeded from HVAC contamination.

Easy to miss if you only get your news from places that ignore facts contrary to what you want to believe.

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/06/air-conditioning-may-be-factor-in-covid-19-spread-in-the-south/
"Drawing on insights from another deadly airborne disease, tuberculosis, a Harvard infectious disease expert suggested Friday that air conditioning use across the southern U.S. may be a factor in spiking COVID-19 cases"


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7205645/
"COVID 19 can spread through breathing, talking, study estimates"

https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/Coronavirus-FAQ-How-long-does-it-stay-on-15152021.php
"But live particles that cause COVID-19 can survive on some surfaces for days or weeks, and remain in the air for hours."

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/04/coronavirus-covid-sneeze-fluid-dynamics-in-photos/
"See how a sneeze can launch germs much farther than 6 feet"

As for mask effectiveness the article was a Japanese article from a few months ago a friend translated, but I can still direct you here--proper masks (N95/surgical) will protect against the spread, and evidenced by a hair salon where two workers were infected, everybody wore masks, it didn't spread to anybody else.
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p0714-americans-to-wear-masks.html

And you seem to have no grasp on the concept of air density if you think the microscopic virus will fall to the ground considering moisture particles (which are heavy) can remain suspended in the air--what do you think clouds are.

[Hammy]

It's hatred against local governments controlled by the opposing party.

If he allowed them to regulate masks, who knows what else they might do on issues more important to his party?

The entire conservative ideology that led to Trump in the first place is based on literally nothing but spite and making the other side unhappy no matter the wider consequences to the population. That's it. That's been the hallmark of Trump's policy as well as every governor that follows his lead.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/AnaCabrera/status/1284203797934419968

I'm not going to wish the virus on anyone, but DeSantis (and Brian Kemp) is really pushing that resolve.

Clearly they don't care about the science that says even the healthiest people can have severe symptoms if the viral load they're exposed to is high--such as a gym where everybody's in close contact breathing heavily.

[Hammy]

The numbers didn't explode as much as I expected yesterday, but we're still in the red relative to last week on all fronts.

Are we getting honest numbers anymore after the White House intervention in CDC tracking?

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/AnaCabrera/status/1284203797934419968

I'm not going to wish the virus on anyone, but DeSantis (and Brian Kemp) is really pushing that resolve.

Clearly they don't care about the science that says even the healthiest people can have severe symptoms if the viral load they're exposed to is high--such as a gym where everybody's in close contact breathing heavily.

Have we established now that being exposed to more of the virus actually leads to more severe symptoms rather than just a higher probability of contracting it?

It's been known since at least March, though not widely reported on by media since they're more obsessed with case numbers.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/sars-cov-2-viral-load-and-the-severity-of-covid-19/

Higher SARS-CoV-2 viral loads. might worsen outcomes, and data from China suggests the viral load is higher in patients with more severe disease. The amount of virus exposure at the start of infection – the infectious dose – may increase the severity of the illness and is also. linked to a higher viral load

[Hammy]

I feel great about this one. This vaccine was modified from an existing one for MERS, so it's known to be safe. And the people in charge of it are top researchers at one of the best universities in the world who have been working on this since December. I trust their judgement.

You have to be cautious as there has never been a successful vaccine developed for a novel Corona-virus.

I don't disagree with the rest but part of the reason a vaccine wasn't developed previously was because the fatalities were so high, and incubation period so low, that MERS and the first SARS killed people too quickly to adequately spread it among the larger population to the extent this one has.