New Hampshire Primary (January 23) Megathread

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Why would Democrats vote for Haley in a primary? Wouldn't you want Biden to have the weakest possible opponent in the fall? That is unquestionably Trump.

Haley doesn't have 91 criminal indictments and over half the country violently hating her guts. If Haley were nominated election would end up being a referendum on Biden.

Did none of the Democrats pay attention to 2022 or are they still just shell shocked and terrified by 2016? Seriously, Trump and his brand of politics are weak in a general election.

Because Biden is in a bad position even against Trump and we don't want to take any chances with Trup, even if that means President Haley.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Republican-leaning Farmington is fully in. Trump gets over 70%. Haley only up in super blue / super college educated towns. Not good for Haley.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Super blue artsy Peterborough is fully in. Haley 57% - Trump 42%. Not enough for her.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

All the white trash mill towns are giving Trump Assad margins lol.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Haley putting up some ok margins in the bluest of towns, but the actual raw number of votes is comparatively low because they are so blue. The math just isn't there for her. I don't even know if she will finish within 10% of him.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

A new category just popped up seperate from "Unprocessed Write-Ins", "Other Write-ins".

So I imagine "Other" are other write-in names and "Unprocessed" is Joe.

Exactly. I know a few people who wrote in from the river to the sea in the D primary, we can't be acting like all the write-ins are for Biden.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Is Haley likely to win any counties in NH?

Grafton and Cheshire are possibilities

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Is Haley likely to win any counties in NH?

She already has lol

Those aren't counties, they're municipalities. NH only has 10 counties.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Seabrook - the most southeasterly town in NH. It's surrounded by upscale beach communities and suburbs in the Seacoast region, but Seabrook itself is a trashy dump of a beach town with druggies and a power plant. Fully in, Trump got 72%.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

There's a correlation between Haley's performance and how blue a town is, but what's an even slightly stronger correlation is a community's income and how Haley is doing. There are wealthier swing towns or lean-Republican towns that she's doing better in than some light blue mill towns. Trump truly is the candidate of the uneducated. Populism is cancer.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

There's a correlation between Haley's performance and how blue a town is, but what's an even slightly stronger correlation is a community's income and how Haley is doing. There are wealthier swing towns or lean-Republican towns that she's doing better in than some light blue mill towns. Trump truly is the candidate of the uneducated. Populism is cancer.

Haley is the candidate of the rich elite while Trump is the candidate of the poor and working class common man.

And sadly poor working class people are more susceptible to falling into a cult, which is why we need to improve quality of and access to education. Populism is just enabling the delusional masses.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

There's a correlation between Haley's performance and how blue a town is, but what's an even slightly stronger correlation is a community's income and how Haley is doing. There are wealthier swing towns or lean-Republican towns that she's doing better in than some light blue mill towns. Trump truly is the candidate of the uneducated. Populism is cancer.

Elitist attitudes such as this are part of why he does so well with the uneducated...

Yeah I get really tired of liberals who fetishize Ivy League schools and worship people because they got college degrees. It totally ignores a lot of socio-economic barriers that prevent working class people from obtaining such education and puts blame on the individual for being a dumb dumb. Very elitist and ironically conservative position.

It's not elitist to be anti-populist.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

CNN interviews a man who wants someone closer to the "middle" and he decided to vote for Trump over Haley.

The median voter is astonishingly uninformed.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

There's a correlation between Haley's performance and how blue a town is, but what's an even slightly stronger correlation is a community's income and how Haley is doing. There are wealthier swing towns or lean-Republican towns that she's doing better in than some light blue mill towns. Trump truly is the candidate of the uneducated. Populism is cancer.

Elitist attitudes such as this are part of why he does so well with the uneducated...

Yeah I get really tired of liberals who fetishize Ivy League schools and worship people because they got college degrees. It totally ignores a lot of socio-economic barriers that prevent working class people from obtaining such education and puts blame on the individual for being a dumb dumb. Very elitist and ironically conservative position.

It's not elitist to be anti-populist.

That's not what I'm talking about. I'm anti-populist too.

I'm talking about liberals who seem to judge someone's worth on what kind of education credentials they have. Like with the Obamas, I remember seeing all this stuff about Obama being a constitutional law graduate, which implied that therefore you couldn't criticize his positions unless you too had an education of the same caliber. And then this stuff about the Obamas having "class" and "grace" just dripped with classism and it was gross.

And for the record, I think Ivy Leagues are dumb leftist breeding grounds and not everyone needs to go to college. But people need a basic understanding of civics.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

86% for Haley in Hanover (fully in). Home of Dartmouth College.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

My guess is she doesn't drop out tonight but throws in the towel sometime in the next month before SC.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Would Nikki husband stfu with all that noise during the speech

Lol that's her husband and not some random drunk guy?

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Interesting that NYT estimated votes remaining is not just showing the number of votes remaining, but how much each candidate will get according to their prediction. They must be feeding results into a model that also contains past election info and income demographics.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Haley might keep it to single digits after all. It's going to be close to 10%.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

https://twitter.com/steelyboy23/status/1749979388769075553?t=twtsfWoXZfhBp0AUx83...

Not too surprising given that Hopkinton and Bow are wealthier than Concord, and the few Republicans in Concord are more likely to be working class.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

A lot of vote is still not reported yet from the Taxachusetts refugee suburbs like Salem, Pelham, Hudson, Windham, Derry and Londonderry. This will be a lot of votes, and I expect Trump to still be pretty strong in at least the ones that directly border MA. Londonderry might be better for Haley.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Nikki Haley posts her lowest town result yet in Winchester (southwest corner), garnering only 25% there. This is a fast R-trending area - in fact, it was the only town in the whole state that voted for Hillary in 2016 but then flipped to Trump in 2020.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Doug Burgum comes in third place in tiny Ellsworth, getting 1 vote (which is 3%).

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Pelham comes in. It's one of the biggest Trumpy suburbs that borders Massachusetts, and it isn't trending blue either like some of them. (It borders Dracut MA, which was the only Trump town for many miles in MA, so there's also a bit of a working class element keeping things more GOP in this area).

Trump gets 69%. This is the part of the state where the correlation between higher income and Haley support will be weakest.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I'm a bit surprised that Haley only carried Bedford, the wealthiest and fastest D-trending town in NH, by only 9 points. Definitely an underperformance there.