China

[Tetro Kornbluth]

It is likely to seek to follow the Singapore model, but I doubt it can.

China is simply too large.

A federal capitalist oligarchy in the mode of Mexico under the PRI, circa 1950, is one likely possibility.

Well, pretty much... that or the complete breakdown of the country once recession hits. I have no doubt though that the Chinese Communist party will soon stage 'elections'.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

China is hardly the homogenous superstate Westerners think it is.

True but unlike the Soviet Union there isn't a clearly delineated alternative (the CCCP always had its constituent republics, relics of its idealistic phase really but important boundaries.... China has... no it's provinces are not the same thing).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Well, seems big pieces of the cake would easily go, Tibet and Xinjiang easily comes to mind, that's mostly what I thought about personally, Inner Mongolia could follow too in case of a general overthrow of the regime, for the most evident guesses. As I had already said a long time ago, I think that, maybe outside of Tibet and Xinjinag, if the communist regime is effectively overthrown - and once again, seeing the scale and the state of the peasantry and of the basic and industrial workers, and those who are inner immigrants, and the contempt in which this part of the population is maintained, I think that's possible, can we really speak of a middle class when it only applies to 20% of a country? - a kind of EU thing could take place between the remaining provinces, or maybe just a federation, US or Germany like.

How much of the modern populations of Tibet and Xijiang are Han? Are how good are the inter-ethnic relationships in Xinjiang (Like say between Uighers and Kazakhs)?

Anyway I highly doubt China will break up in the future. The breakup of the CCCP was due to its own particular circumstances.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Multi party democracy.

What are you basing that on?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Multi party democracy.

What are you basing that on?

History of countries that become rich? [shrugs]

That isn't a good idea.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Multi party democracy.

What are you basing that on?

History of countries that become rich? [shrugs]

That isn't a good idea.

Why not?

Well for a start using comparative history is always problematic when making predictions especially when taking about a country with such a nationalist, xenophobic and internalistic history like China.

Second of all I would take issue with the idea that wealth = democracy. I reckon the world is mostly democratic today because the US and the UK happened to win all three of the major world conflicts of the 20th Century. In many developing countries actually it seems the more 'developed' it becomes the less democratic it gets - look at the history of Africa since colonization or many Latin American countries since about 1860 to the end of 1980s (though that admittely might be cause and effect).

Thirdly, why would the Communist Party simply force itself out of office?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Dean, While I bow to those more knowledgable I have to say a few things:

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How would such a crisis occur? If those states became independent that I could see is what would happen but why China let them - however is governing it - especially considering the investment China has put into the two places.

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Yes, yes. But history is full of exceptions and doesn't follow 'laws'. There is no guarantee that a civil war won't happen in a modern economy just because it hasn't happened before. Which is not, I should say, to say I think China will descend into civil war. I was merely pointing out to Disraeli the differences between China and the Soviet Union and that the CCCP had a system of clearly delineated 'republics' while China does not. What I didn't say was that China would collapse.

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If this a reference to my comment "country with such a nationalist, xenophobic and internalistic history like China" that wasn't to give a cultural spin against democracy or anything like that. My point was China's history and position means that it does not necessarily have to follow the 'laws of history' - because X country reached democracy at a certain point, does not mean China has to also. China's political-economic development is an issue of China, what happens in the rest of the world is not wholly applicable.

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But is there the popular will or position do to so?

Also, Japan = Liberal? Really? Democratic yes, but Liberal is not something that would particularly strike me about the country (though of course its government is much more liberal than the CCP...)