New Jersey Governor R primary

[wbrocks67]

I’d be pretty shocked if Ciattarelli lost the primary tbh

yeah, as much i'd selfishly want one of the crackpots to win to make it even easier for Murphy, Jack probably has this

[wbrocks67]

Ciatterelli will most likely win given that the two pro-Trump guys are tearing the other down. Also the ballot line system in NJ gives the establishment pick a big advantage in primaries.

However given how insane parts of the GOP are these days I can't completely rule out Singh winning, even though it seems so improbable.

Yeah, depends on what the GOP electorate looks like today. If the Trumpier part really comes out in full force, there could be a surprise.

Likewise though, if Citarelli ends up getting like 50-60%+ or something, that could mean the Trump voters are depressed and not coming out (signalling further that without Trump, they don't come out)

[wbrocks67]

Jack will win.

Jack Ciattarelli will win the primary easily, but I have him losing 51-47 against Phil Murphy in the general election. Had Phil Murphy not reopened New Jersey when he did, then Jack Ciattarelli would have defeated him for reelection.

Murphy is definitely going to win more than 51% of the vote in November. Probably around the same as he did in 2017 (57-58%).

There will probably be a swing against Phil Murphy in urban areas disproportionately affected by the lockdowns such as Newark, Camden, Trenton, Hoboken, Elizabeth, Patterson, and Jersey City as well as the shore communities (which are already in Jack Ciattarelli‘s pocket), so it will probably be less than the 57% he got in 2017.

I doubt any "backlash" to the lockdowns will be gone by November, which is not for another 5 months

[wbrocks67]

It looks like Ciatarelli will be just shy of cracking 50% which isn't surprising... I'd say a perfect microcosm of the NJ Republican party at this point. 50% are still "moderate" per say, while the nearly 50% that voted for Rizzo/Singh are the Trumpy base.