French presidential election, 2022

[wbrocks67]

Voters memories are literally nothing anymore, but the way voters have simply forgiven Le Pen for her past is still shocking to me.

[wbrocks67]

Seems to be basically the final results:

Macron 27.8%
Le Pen 23.2%
Melenchon 21.9%
Zemmour 7.1%
Pecresse 4.8%
Jadot 4.6%

Do we have another breakdown of the early estimates of the 2nd vote? I feel like I saw a tweet about an early exit poll that had Macron 54/Le Pen 46 estimated for the second round based on exit polls.

[wbrocks67]

Marine Le Pen and National Rally are under investigation by the European Union for embezzlement of funds while she was an MEP.

Paris prosecutors are studying a report by the European Union’s fraud agency accusing French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen and other members of her nationalist party of misusing public funds while serving in the European Parliament.

The report was disclosed by French investigative news site Mediapart just days before Le Pen faces incumbent Emmanuel Macron in a runoff election Sunday that could determine Europe’s future direction. Le Pen’s party National Rally seeks to diminish the EU’s powers.

interestingly, it seems like Le Pen's momentum stopped the day the first round election was held. now it appears momentum is clearly in Macron's favor

[wbrocks67]

I mean, given peoples TV watching patterns, it was only down 2M viewers from 10 years ago. That's not bad at all.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1517041819552522240

25-34 year olds are the only group Le Pen is leading with (and by 20 points)

Macron leads 18-24s by 8 points and 65+ by 30 points

Are French millennials conservative leaning or something? I get that they don't love Macron but this is like Millennials in the US just choosing to vote Trump out of spite?

[wbrocks67]

Thank god France got this right. Le Pen is absolutely nuts, but given her "rehabilitation" with the public, I'd consider a 59-41 win a pretty big success given how unpopular Macron has apparently been and France going through the same issues the US is ("inflation" being blamed on the incumbent party, COVID-19 measures, etc.)

[wbrocks67]

Exit polls show Le Pen did better with youth and women voters.

This is not true - I definitely saw an exit poll that had Macron winning 18-24 year olds 61/39.

[wbrocks67]

While I'm incredibly reliefed Macron pulled this off, and it wasn't *that* close in the end, it's still WAY closer than it should have been, given Mademoiselle Le Pen is not some normal right of center politician. When over 40% vote for such a candidate, there's something wrong.

Macron, just like other Western leaders, need to figure out what to do with mostly rural voters that view globalization as a threat instead of an opportunity and who feel overwhelmed by rapid cultural changes. For sure, latter is kind of shortsighted, but these people are there and the govt needs to figure out a way to address their concerns. I know this is easy to write for me, though it's a challenge leaders have to take on.

In theory, yes, but voters memories are nonexistent at this point, so it's clear that some just bought into Le Pen's "rehabilitation" tour. So you could look at it two different ways, being that she tried to "moderate" herself this time around and still could barely crack 40%.