2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

Data for Progress GCB at R+1, 46-45.

Their last two polls were R+4 and R+3.

July 13-25: R+3 (48-45)
Aug 1-2: R+4 (48-44)
Aug 12-28: R+1 (46-45)

https://www.dataforprogress.org/generic-congressional-ballot

[wbrocks67]

Data for Progress GCB at R+1, 46-45.

Their last two polls were R+4 and R+3.

July 13-25: R+3 (48-45)
Aug 1-2: R+4 (48-44)
Aug 12-28: R+1 (46-45)

https://www.dataforprogress.org/generic-congressional-ballot

I would have said throw it in the average if it wasn't DFP. They are garbage

Didn’t they underestimate NY-19 by 13%?

Yep lol

[wbrocks67]

A collection of internal Democratic polls conducted in August in a dozen battleground seats, which were reviewed by POLITICO, showed Democratic candidates running, on average, more than 6 percentage points above Biden’s favorability rating in those districts. On the higher end of the spectrum were Wild and Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.).

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/06/gop-inside-track-to-house-majority-dems-00054821

And I got mocked for saying Susan Wild was a strong incumbent!

[wbrocks67]

A collection of internal Democratic polls conducted in August in a dozen battleground seats, which were reviewed by POLITICO, showed Democratic candidates running, on average, more than 6 percentage points above Biden’s favorability rating in those districts. On the higher end of the spectrum were Wild and Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.).

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/06/gop-inside-track-to-house-majority-dems-00054821

And I got mocked for saying Susan Wild was a strong incumbent!

She’s not.

She's outrunning Biden by the most among many battleground Dems, so how is she not? Where's the proof she's not?

[wbrocks67]

In all seriousness, I traveled thru PA-07 over the weekend (Lehigh Valley) and there was a LOT of lawn signs. Also was struck at it being nearly 50/50 between Scheller and Wild with maybe Wild having a bit of an edge.

[wbrocks67]

InsiderAdvantage (R) has D+1, 45-44.

Their last poll had R+1, 45-44 at the beginning of August.

https://amgreatness.com/2022/09/06/joe-bidens-approval-rating-surges-to-45-percent-in-new-insider-advantage-poll/

[wbrocks67]

Three millions of dollars being poured into Ohio in a race that Vance was never in any serious risk of losing is stunning.

Clearly he is if they're spending this much to save him.

[wbrocks67]

Three millions of dollars being poured into Ohio in a race that Vance was never in any serious risk of losing is stunning.

Apparently the SLF has a different evaluation of the race than you do.

I’m old enough to remember both parties throwing money at states like Iowa and South Carolina in 2020 when many here (correctly) pointed out that both were Safe R the whole time.

Not at the level that the GOP is spending on OH. Also, just b/c something happened in the past doesn't mean it's the same thing this year.

[wbrocks67]

OnMessage (R) / Senate Opportunity Fund

GCB R+2, 46-44

They had this at R+4 (47-43) in their last poll in mid-August

More movement towards Dems

https://senopportunity.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/2022-09-31-PUBLIC-DECK-National-SOF.pdf

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, the whole "internal polling is worse than public polling" just isn't true.

Even in 2020, Biden's pollster team constantly said that their internal polling was always closer than much of the public polling.

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult has launched a GCB tracker. Looks like it updates everyday with a rolling 3 day average. This is separate from the weekly Politico/Morning Consult poll.

It's D+2 right now. Looks like it has between about D+2 to D+4 for a while now.

https://morningconsult.com/2022-midterm-elections-tracker/

[wbrocks67]

Yahoo/YouGov: D+5 (45/40) among RV, D+3 (48/45) among those who "definitely will vote".

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-democrats-lead-republicans-among-those-who-say-theyll-definitely-vote-in-midterms-221434935.html

Interesting that the "enthusiasm gap" is now favoring Dems. In what was thought to be a red wave year.

[wbrocks67]

Yahoo/YouGov: D+5 (45/40) among RV, D+3 (48/45) among those who "definitely will vote".

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-democrats-lead-republicans-among-those-who-say-theyll-definitely-vote-in-midterms-221434935.html

Interesting that the "enthusiasm gap" is now favoring Dems. In what was thought to be a red wave year.

The question is whether it holds or whether the GOP catches up. Dem enthusiasm is almost certainly going to hold though. Dobbs really had a larger impact than many - including myself - expected. It's just that we still have 2 months to go.

If these numbers holds into the 2nd half of October, I'd be increasingly optimistic that we might actually hold the House.

We really don't have 2 months to go though. States are going to start early voting in a matter of days/weeks. I don't still see the whole "GOP can still catch up" calculation. People have been saying that for two months now...

[wbrocks67]

YouGov/Economist GCB at D+6, 44-38

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/jy7xuoa0xo/econtoplines.pdf

[wbrocks67]

Yahoo/YouGov: D+5 (45/40) among RV, D+3 (48/45) among those who "definitely will vote".

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-democrats-lead-republicans-among-those-who-say-theyll-definitely-vote-in-midterms-221434935.html

Interesting that the "enthusiasm gap" is now favoring Dems. In what was thought to be a red wave year.

The question is whether it holds or whether the GOP catches up. Dem enthusiasm is almost certainly going to hold though. Dobbs really had a larger impact than many - including myself - expected. It's just that we still have 2 months to go.

If these numbers holds into the 2nd half of October, I'd be increasingly optimistic that we might actually hold the House.

We really don't have 2 months to go though. States are going to start early voting in a matter of days/weeks. I don't still see the whole "GOP can still catch up" calculation. People have been saying that for two months now...

Most early voters vote Democratic though. Republicans need to work on the election day turnout.

Yup, this. The last 2 months were also different since Labor Day weekend is usually considered the (un)official begin of the campaign.

I'm just cautious because I don't want to get my hopes up and be disappointed again. I've just been fooled by the polls too often. Especially earlier polls.

Maybe in the past, but this year I disagree. The Dobbs ruling changed everything. In this day and age, people are constantly tuned in and engaged, especially in the Trump era. I feel like the Labor Day thing is just an arbitrary mark at this point.

[wbrocks67]

The basics are still bad for Democrats: President Joe Biden’s (D) approval rating, perhaps the best catch-all of the political environment, is still stuck in the low 40s, albeit after having improved from the 30s in polling averages a month and a half ago.

He's literally at 44% in the 538 RV/LV average, but sure okay

[wbrocks67]

The basics are still bad for Democrats: President Joe Biden’s (D) approval rating, perhaps the best catch-all of the political environment, is still stuck in the low 40s, albeit after having improved from the 30s in polling averages a month and a half ago.

He's literally at 44% in the 538 RV/LV average, but sure okay

Are we splitting hairs over calling 44% “low 40s” now? lol

My point is that there is a big difference with being closer to 40 and being closer to 45. Biden's approvals are actually lining up with Obamas at this point so I just think the pundits still pulling the "Bidens approval is in the tank" is just factually wrong.

[wbrocks67]

YouGov/Economist GCB at D+6, 44-38

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/jy7xuoa0xo/econtoplines.pdf

It's interesting to me that the GCB is D+6, but in the two questions of "who do you want to win the "Senate/House?" it's D+2 and D+1. Assuming that "no preference" in those two questions correlates roughly to "not sure" and "I would not vote" in the GCB question, the biggest difference seems to be the 13% of voters who favor divided government, who presumably tend to favor Democrats in the GCB.

Could be a theme worth watching, since in general I would assume pro-divided government voters would tend to vote against the president's party in a mid-term. Another plausible read of this discrepancy is that Democrats have stronger candidates.

I also think it's interesting just in the sense that that many people still want divided government. I get that in theory you would think oh, it makes people work together. But in reality, we have seen that is not the case and divided government these days just equals less getting done entirely.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1567867152056590337

[wbrocks67]

I have checked and the polls for the Generic ballot in 2018 were very much correct

Yep, 538s final average pretty much nailed the final result

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1568248439816835073

[wbrocks67]

Rasmussen GCB at R+4, 46-42

https://t.co/FUHcEEvhfE

[wbrocks67]

There was also another POLITICO poll with D+3 added to the 538 average. It was from like 8/5-22 or something for some college.

Has pushed the average to D+1.3, 45.0-43.7

[wbrocks67]

Dems now +1.2 (44.9-43.7) on 538 Average, highest since early November 2021. 44.9% is the highest the Democrats have been at since early October 2021, while the Republicans' 43.7% is the lowest it's been since late January 2022.

If you don't assume that polls are underestimating Republicans nationwide, there is a real chance Democrats retain the House (IF the polls do not swing against them in the final weeks). Wow.

The polls are probably underestimating Republican support, but it's not like the polls have gotten less accurate in the past year, so there is still an obvious shift towards the Dems.

I mean, in November 2021 the GCB was D+1 and the actual election outcomes up and down the ballot corresponded to R+7.

Maybe in VA, but not everywhere. In PA, a Democrat nearly won a pretty high turnout marquee Supreme Court race. There were other places countrywide (I think Georgia too) where Democrats actually had a pretty good night.

I think it's clear VA was it's own thing, and NJ was affected by the national environment but also the fact that a Dem governor has not won twice in forever.

[wbrocks67]

I hate Ipsos polls tbh. Just ridiculously high number of undecideds most of the time

In 2020 NYT/Siena was so annoying cause till the end they’d give us polls with 10%+ “undecided” even though they were pretty well respected before.

Yeah, I hope NYT/Siena comes back this year, but if they're going to pull more 45-40 polls on us, then it's not even worth it.