PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, I'm still suprised how much polling has narrowed so quickly in this race. It seems like you have a large enough sample size of polls that it's not just noise, but at the same time there really hasn't been any sort of scandal or even large enoguh shift in the NPV to justify it. What's notable is since his high in September, Fetterman has lost a full 5 points of support and there's really no reason I can think of why he would've lost that much.

There were a few more pollsters who normally push people than recently. When people are pushed, Fetterman has been closer to around 50.

But we were also getting Fetterman +2-3 polls over a month ago, with a few bigger ones in between. We're still gettin Fetterman +1-3 polls.

[wbrocks67]

Two things:
1) Why did Oz do no events today? 2 weeks before the election on a weekend and you're MIA?
2) Amy Klobuchar makes a whole lot more sense for John Fetterman in Chester County than whatever Oz is doing with Tom Cotton and then having... John Kennedy in Bucks.

https://twitter.com/njgavio/status/1583963053317816320

[wbrocks67]

I feel much better about Fetterman than CCM.

CCM the emails from her campaign are absolutely panicking and insane. Also, Fetterman does have the advantage of a stronger Democratic gubernatorial candidate.

Despite all that, i think voters can only tolerate so much. I will look deeper into it, but I could see Democratic candidates for Secretary of State winning NV and AZ even if the Dem Governor candidates lose.

I can look into more astrologically, but it is time consuming. My time is more productive text and phone banking.

That's every Democratic email I've ever got lol.

[wbrocks67]

I expect Fetterman to hit Oz on this if they keep doing well - Oz hasn't said a peep about the Phillies.

[wbrocks67]

Yep, anything is justifed when trying to block Oz from the Senate. Dr. Oz must lose at all costs in the single most important Senate election this year and one of the most important of my lifetime.

Here's my hot take: Oz is doing better than expected and may win because he is a snake oil salesman. Oz understands that politics is about manipulating people, that's been his lifelong profession, and he isn't bogged down by actually having an empathic interested in the people he would supposedly be representing. Oz does care about his people, but his people are the people of Istanbul and Ankara, not Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. (no offense meant to Turkish people here on the board)

There exists a certain subset of the population that don't like candidates like Fetterman because he is down to earth. These sort of people see something gilded and think it's golden, and they will never be persuaded otherwise. They keep up with the Kardasians, they watch youtubers like Jake Paul, they live in a world of celebrity gossip with a social structure of adults in high school.

People on forums like this don't really comprehend these people, even those of us who support Oz because of partisanship and ideology, because to them a photogenic guy on TV is higher on the hierarchy than a doctor, and Oz is both.  

Glamour means nothing to John Fetterman, but some people truly value it as much as traits like honestly and wisdom.

This may also be a reason why Trump won and almost won again, because these sort of people remember the Apprentice and saw pictures of his ornate gilded penthouse and supported him because of that.

Also the dog attack ads come across as desperate and dishonest. Democratic ads on that topic are like the boy crying wolf when other similar sort of ads from both parties have done the same. Most of the time there is no wolf or it's a small dog, this time there really is a wolf, and frankly it's bigger and more sinister than Fetterman and his campaign realize.

With all due respect, have you *seen* the GOP attack ads against Fetterman? Come on now. There are *many* desperate and dishonest attack ads in this race.

Also you're missing a key part here - people don't like Oz. His favorables continue to be a dumpster fire. You can't be a snake oil sales man successfully if people don't like you.

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman's team was out handing "Phillies fans for Fetterman" out last night in the crowds after the win.

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1584560792061763584

[wbrocks67]

Something to watch if the polls start stabilizing for Fetterman this week. After a GOP advantage on the airwaves, Dems led the ad race pretty solidly the last 2 weeks.

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1584666193121579008

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, I also now buy the “McCormick would win” argument after adamantly countering it; I didn’t expect Fetterman to be this much of a dud, and I think the silent spectre of Oz’s religion and dual citizenship continues to hang pretty heavy with the base.

We haven't even gotten the results yet.

[wbrocks67]

Something to watch if the polls start stabilizing for Fetterman this week. After a GOP advantage on the airwaves, Dems led the ad race pretty solidly the last 2 weeks.

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1584666193121579008

Where's that total of $4 million in R-Gov spending coming from? Mastriano doesn't even have a fraction of that on hand. Are outside PACs and GOP groups actually blowing money on him? I thought they all pulled out months ago.

Mastriano had a little bit of money at the end of the last period (I think he had raised $1 or $2M) and I think some conservative PAC just gave him $500K recently)

[wbrocks67]

Mentally getting prepared for all the blue avatars to come in here tonight to say that Oz won the debate, it changed the trajectory of the race, and Oz win is now incoming.

Also prepared for the numerous clips on social media when John messes up like 1 word that are going to be made to prove he's "unable" to do the job.

[wbrocks67]

I'm sorry, who does Fetterman have to "prove" he is fit to serve? He's been out on the campaign trail doing tons of events, talking to voters, doing interviews, etc. There is no more "proof" you need. The way the press has handled this has again been pretty disgraceful, and they've barely laid a finger on Oz this entire campaign.

In a normal campaign, you'd expect there to be a couple more profiles of the fact that this man still has double digit negative favorability going into Election Day and how that is impacting *his* campaign and yet.... crickets. It's always all about Fetterman.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/EverettStern1/status/1584976258693492736

Independent write-in candidate.  Every little bit helps, I guess.

Huh, this is surprising but yeah, will gladly take everything we can get.

[wbrocks67]

GOP is dumping another $6M into PA, seemingly shifting most of the Bolduc money over here.

Obviously a ton of money, but they're PACs and are not going to get as good rates two weeks out as they would have had earlier (or if it came from Oz)

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1584922246338019328

[wbrocks67]

Should we have expected anything less? Oz is gross.

https://twitter.com/ColbyItkowitz/status/1585035263843373056

[wbrocks67]

Was a bit of a whirlwind debate, wasn't it? Bare with me and my essay...

I'll say this - can you really say anyone "won" that debate? To be fair, John certainly struggled a bit to find his words at time. This was to be expected, he's still recovering from a stroke - in interviews (and in his opening statement, which I thought was smart), he openly admitted it.

If you were someone who's judging the debate off of "optics", then yeah, someone with a disability who has trouble finding their words sometimes is going to look terrible compared to someone who speaks normally.

The fracking answer was bad, he should've just said he's evolved on the issue.

I think his quip about Bernie Sanders was great, and his abortion answer was straight to the point.

So as much as Fetterman struggled a bit (again, depends on how you judge "struggling", he openly admitted that he'd struggle a bit), Oz was just ... objectively awful? First of all, the pace of the debate was chaotic. Oz was speaking VERY fast at many times, and I think that probably didn't help then Fetterman trying to keep up with closed captions. The format of only being given 15-30 seconds to rebut I think also was unfortunately not great for Fetterman, since he was naturally going to take a bit longer to respond.

Oz was tripping over his own words at times while speaking so fast. He successfully pivoted to the issues that he wanted to talk about, which was smart. But then not only did he continue to come off as swarmy and unlikeable, he came off disingenuous. It's like it's hard for him to just come off genuine and not fake.

Then came the answers and soundbites. For all that we talk about debates, it's all about the soundbites and gaffes. If you consider Fetterman tripping over his words at times - something we knew would happen - a gaffe, then sure. But Oz made many more gaffes that he should not have - especially the abortion comment (That now has millions of views on Twitter already). Not just that, but his condescending tone ("i didn't speak clearly enough for you, John" or whatever that quip was), and then him openly saying he would support Trump in 2024. Yes, that works for the MAGA base... but the only route for Oz is to win moderates, and openly and happily supporting Trump is not a great look.

I also just had to laugh as an aside of when he claimed he "always told the truth on his tv show" (come on!) and then even called this debate a "television show."

I have no idea how this is going to play out - maybe will people will ding Fetterman for not appearing "up to the job" (despite the fact that he was open about his performance), but Oz certainly did himself no favors, and the only person that can really get attack ads out of this will be Fetterman. Oz could try putting clips of Fetterman stumbling in his ads, but he hasn't done that yet - and I think for a good reason. Would just make him look ghoulish.

So instead, we have Fetterman "struggling" in parts that we figured he would. So not a real surprise there. But then Oz making multiple gaffes that were unforced and are now making the rounds. And also just generally coming off unlikable.

OH, and lastly - I do think there is something to say about Oz's whole narrative of making Fetterman to be out this nasty, insane, liberal radical who is too "HARD" for Pennsylvania. Fetterman struggling with his words at times humanized him, and certainly did not make him out to be the crazy radical extremist that Oz/GOP is portraying him to be.

[wbrocks67]

Again, this was just as bad, if not considerably worse, than any of Fetterman’s stumbles. And this is without recovering from a stroke! And yet one is a “victory” and the other is a campaign-ending performance. Does anyone really doubt the right-wing bias of the media at this point?
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1581069686392995840?s=21&t=2X3_T2u-Pkl...

Yeah, this is the irony. Walker made no sense in many of his answers, and yet this was called an "overperformance" by many. Yet, Fetterman - who had a stroke 5 months ago - struggled with some answers - and that was campaign ending. This is exactly what I was talking about in terms of the expectations just not being the same at all. What is Walker's excuse for fumbling so many answers?

[wbrocks67]

The biggest gaff of the night was not Fetterman struggling to find the words it was Oz's "abortion is between a woman, her doctor and local politicians" statement.

I’ll never not admire your side's perpetual optimism, but I’d strongly suggest seasoning it with a healthy dose of realism.

This makes this campaign about abortion again 13 days before the election? That’s pretty much hook, line, and sinker.

Yep, it's easily the most viral clip of the debate by far. This one has nearly 2M views already.

Similar to how the only thing that mattered (or didn't) out of the GA debate was the badge.

https://twitter.com/patdennis/status/1585066053230809090

[wbrocks67]

I occasionally ask my daughter to read through these boards to make sure I'm not coming across as an "old person" (I just really want to impress you youngins) and her only comment after skimming this one tonight is "disaster thread."

Sounds about right lol. Twitter was pretty apocalyptic in the first 5-10 minutes.

[wbrocks67]

Breakdown from the Voice of Reason

https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1585077889136939008?s=20&t=a9YJyi65F...

Thanks for this. Axelrod knows Oz's team is high-fiving tonight, and Fetterman's isn't. That's the relevant part of the tweet, absent the DNC window dressing.

I mean, it's kind of gross to say "sufficiently recovered" in terms of a stroke. What even is that baseline? Some people "recover" quickly, others take a lot of time. Doesn't mean they're any less fit to do a job. This is why the entire topic of the whole thing has been gross. If Fetterman was so "cognitively impaired", then how could he read and understand the questions so fast and understand it? The idea that not being able to verbalize your thoughts properly means you're brain damaged is really just gross.

But again - debates like these are about "optics." It's like speaking to someone with a severe stutter in real life. Is it somewhat uncomfortable? Sure. Is it less "comfortable" then speaking with someone who doesn't have one? Sure. But does it make that person any less fit to do their job or "cognitively" there? Not at all.

The problem for Oz is that he could've came off like a different person, but Oz has his own issues that he just reinforced once again.

So at the end of the day, they made clear where they stand on the issues. So it's whether you're with someone who may have issues speaking and verbalizing their thoughts a bit, but is working on it - or someone who you think seems like a scam artist and is rather untrustworthy. I think PA'ians will prefer the former, but who knows. As Trump showed, and as the press has made clear, all they really care about is optics.

[wbrocks67]

oh and don't even get me started about the Eagles pandering by Oz. At least Fetterman has some legitimacy with the Steelers. Oz saying "my Eagles" and then singing a bit of the fight song was straight up eye-roll inducing and i guarantee that even Oz fans in the Philly area thought that was cringe.

[wbrocks67]

I did not watch the debate, I find political debates boring and of very little use, so this is coming from someone who has just seen clips like 99% of the population.

- Fetterman was tough to watch, no getting around that, but honestly people are more understanding than you think. I honestly can't see many people who are predisposed to voting for him abandoning ship. He may even generate some empathy.

- Oz was smooth, in control, and completely unlikeable. The biggest gaff of the night was not Fetterman struggling to find the words it was Oz's "abortion is between a woman, her doctor and local politicians" statement.

Not a good for Fetterman but was it a game changer? I have my doubts.

 

IDK if that is much of a gaffe with swing voters?  Keep in mind that this board is like 95% pro-choice.

I don't think the "between a woman and her doctor" line is working for D's anymore at this point. Many swing voters probably hear that and think no limits at all to birth, which is every bit as unpopular as a total ban with the general public.

Wait, what? I don't think many people's minds go to that. I'd think that most people would agree with that statement and the first thing that does not come to their minds is "oh they must support late term abortion." That seems like a stretch.

I think most people who are pro-choice or even somewhat pro-choice would agree with the statement, and would think that it's pretty insane to lump a "political leader" into the decision with a woman *herself*

Also, abortion seemed like one of the issues that Oz maybe was able to skate by on. His comment about abortion being murder was a big one, but I don't know if people necessarily bought the "Oz is EXTREME on abortion." But this comment certainly now reinforces that he definitely is no friend to anyone who is pro-choice...

(not to mention he refused to answer the Graham 15-week bill question even after 3 times)

[wbrocks67]

As someone with a disability, I am beyond disgusted at so many of you.

I thought Fetterman sounded perfectly fine considering what he's been through.

Yeah, as someone who has known people in real life who have had strokes, it can be BAD. Objectively, the fact that Fetterman is even on that stage mostly speaking in complete sentences 5-6 months after the stroke is incredibly impressive.

Some people take years to "recover" even that much.

[wbrocks67]

Oz definitely won the debate there's no doubt about it in my mind. Will it matter? It's certainly possible. I'm just totally disgusted with the strange nasty people here on Atlas who seem to think its a good use of their time to insult disabled people and those in recovery on the internet. Have you ever had a friend, or a relative, who had a stroke, or a stutter, who is autistic, or a disability? Just, have basic empathy, or at least keep your nastiness to yourself. Shame, shame on you.

He didn't, but okay.

Oz clearly won. You could bottle the Dem cope in this thread.

No, he didn't. Nobody "won" the debate.

I mean "win" in the sense that that is how voters will perceive it.

Will they though? Fetterman's stuff was baked in. People know he had a stroke; he even prepared them for what may come. Oz's stuff was all unforced, and way more gaffe-y.

If you're metric is "Oz spoke all in complete sentences and Fetterman didn't", then sure Oz "won." But I think voters perceptions will be a lot more nuanced.

They may not, they may think Fetterman is "not fit." Or they may have seen someone who is vulnerable and recovering - and a lot more authentic on that stage than Oz. I guess we'll just have to wait and find out.

[wbrocks67]

Oz definitely won the debate there's no doubt about it in my mind. Will it matter? It's certainly possible. I'm just totally disgusted with the strange nasty people here on Atlas who seem to think its a good use of their time to insult disabled people and those in recovery on the internet. Have you ever had a friend, or a relative, who had a stroke, or a stutter, who is autistic, or a disability? Just, have basic empathy, or at least keep your nastiness to yourself. Shame, shame on you.

He didn't, but okay.

Oz clearly won. You could bottle the Dem cope in this thread.

No, he didn't. Nobody "won" the debate.

I mean "win" in the sense that that is how voters will perceive it.

Most voters probably didn't even watch the debate. Same with the Georgia debate. It's not going to make any difference, and nobody "won" either debate.

I suspect, like GA, it was likely more partisans that watched than anything else.

If that GA debate didn't move the needle - with Walker's badge gaffe being even more viral than Oz's abortion comment, than I don't know how much this will move things. But that's good news for Fetterman, then.

[wbrocks67]

I'm honestly shocked the Oz "I wasn't speaking clearly enough for you, John" clip isn't making more rounds. That was the most egregious of all.