PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[wbrocks67]

Val Arkoosh is expected to jump in the next few weeks. Not sure she really has a path unless no other women jump in. I wouldn't even say she's that particularly known in Montco.

Sounds like Houlahan, Lamb, Dean, are still mulling. No word on Wild though, so it appears she's not interested.

https://www.inquirer.com/news/pa-senate-race-2022-val-arkoosh-fetterman-kenyatta-20210329.html

[wbrocks67]

We talk a lot about the terrible GOP bench in Pennsylvania, which is mostly fair - other than Fitzpatrick, the current Reps. all represent deep red districts and haven't been tested in a competitive environment, and the former Rep has-beens like Costello seem too moderate to make it out of a primary. But do we think Stacy Garrity (newly elected Treasurer) and Timothy DeFoor (newly elected Auditor) could be formidable statewide candidates in the future (maybe not '22 since they just took office). Haven't heard much buzz about them regardless - is it because their wins last year (particularly Garrity's) are seen as flukes / unexpected, and therefore don't really speak to their electoral strength?

Both could be strong statewide candidates down the road for sure, especially Garrity. I could see one or both taking a shot at the Senate race in 24. Not sure about their ambitions, but especially with 24 being a Presidential election year, it may be a good opportunity to take a shot at Casey.

I'm still mind boggled at how Garrity even won. When I looked at her social media, she seemed like a Trump quack and I had never even heard of her or seen any ads. Torsella was not as strong as expected, but she was a really weak challenger. At least with Nina Ahmad, there were other factors at play.

It's like Shapiro race - Shapiro won because he's a strong candidate, but also Heather Heidelbaugh was just a terrible candidate as well.

However, there was also a strong 3rd party vote, strangely enough, in all 3 non-prez races, which I still don't understand either.

[wbrocks67]

I was clearly wrong about the PA-01 race, but I still don't see Fitz as a strong statewide candidate. His schtick may work in PA-01 (for a number of reasons, including his last name and his apparently weak challengers each time), but not sure that it would work as well for the entire state.

[wbrocks67]

I have no idea why some of these people are running. Sharif Street and Arkoosh to a lesser extent have no name rec and no chance.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, Arkoosh really only has a chance if no other women join in. That way, she can consolidate the entire Montco vote at least, and into the other Philly suburbs.

In order of them jumping in though - the likelihood of it, I'd say Houlahan > Dean > Wild. Though I honestly don't think Dean will jump in, she'll have a safe seat regardless. Houlahan is likely safe too, but she definitely always struck me as someone who would be great statewide. Dean is my congresswoman but I worry about her statewide. She's pretty liberal, and she should've worked harder at the last race.

Meanwhile...

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1377606821448462341

[wbrocks67]

Am I the only one who gets major Randy Bryce vibes from John Fetterman? 

I certainly do. Being the darling of Twitter progressives, most of whom probably don't live in the state, does not necessarily translate to actual electoral appeal. Fetterman has never run for a major office on his own.

I think Democrats are more likely to hold the governorship than to win the Senate seat (which is still a pure tossup in my book). At least Shapiro has proven strength as a candidate.

I can see why people would make the comparison to Bryce, but Bryce never won anything or was elected to anything. Fetterman at least is a known statewide figure who was elected to a spot and is a statewide elected official.

Meanwhile, I still don't necessarily buy that Dean will jump in. It could happen, but I feel like it's still unlikely.

But yeah, if she does, then Arkoosh is better off just running for PA-04.

[wbrocks67]

Has Kathy Barnette conceded yet to Madeleine Dean in PA-04? Didn't think so. She's a total whackadoodle. Grifters gonna grift.

[wbrocks67]

Really a greatest hits now of 2020 losers

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1379836029490896898

[wbrocks67]

I get that some people seem to think the Democratic primary is all that matters in this race (this race seems to be the new poster child for Atlas' "Democratic candidate quality matters, all Republican candidates are clowns" shtick), but no Republican will be "toast" in a general election for federal office in PA in 2022, please get real.

One potentially strong Republican candidate hasn't even announced yet-Guy Reschenthaler. This Senate race is certainly not one which Democrats can take for granted. It's as if people forget that Biden only won the state by slightly over 1%, and he was considered to be the best fit of any Democratic presidential candidate for it.

Biden won though despite the fact that Trump got all of his Trumpers out to vote, which does not happen in off year elections as we've seen. There was record turnout, with Trump nearly maxing out his rurals in PA, and he still lost by 80,000 votes. So it kinda goes both ways here. The GOP candidate is not going to have that advantage, as we saw with 2018 and the special elections since 2016.

[wbrocks67]

I also don't understand why Reschenthaler is considered the best candidate? I mean, sure I guess he has the highest profile b/c he's already a sitting congressman, but he's still way farther right than the GOP needs to win statewide in PA.

[wbrocks67]

I don't understand why so many red avatars are trashing Sean Parnell... he came very close to unseat Lamb despite the race being rated by most pundits as Likely D if not even Safe D, also he is a good fundraiser and has a good resume, in a neutral year / non dem leaning year he would be favoured against all the potential democratic candidates.

I mean, he essentially did the same as Trump. It was mostly the Trump effect imo, added with a few split ticket voters to keep a "check" on Biden.

[wbrocks67]

Sharif officially announced, at a Zoom conference packed with establishment Dems, whilst comparing himself to Barack Obama.   *eyes roll out of head*   If anyone’s interested in watching, it’s up on his FB page.

Ugh. Boring.

He announced an exploratory committee though.

[wbrocks67]

LMAO Costello is embarrasing

[wbrocks67]

The problem for Fitz is that in a GOP primary between like him, nobodys, and like Reschenthaler for example, he likely loses.

https://twitter.com/John__Cole/status/1382388876409499650

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1382812190198136834?s=20

I don't think Dean is going to run. Houlahan seems like the only female congresswoman from PA likely to do so at this point.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1386749294464667653

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, I'd be fine with Lamb jumping in. I think he'd be a great statewide candidate. Not sure who I would vote for in Lamb vs. Kenyatta but I know that Fetterman is now #3 on my list.

[wbrocks67]

If Houlahan jumps in, though, I'd move to her camp in an instant.

[wbrocks67]

Another "Big Lie" candidate is in

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1392161110971850756

[wbrocks67]

Lou Barletta would probably have a better chance than Parnell, tbh

[wbrocks67]

Why are people writing off Parnell? He did well in the district against a well known and well liken incumbent

He really only rode off of Trumps coattails. Biden and Lamb performed similarly. Not to mention, IIRC, Parnell also raised more/had more $$$ put into the race than Lamb as well.

Also, Parnell has gone way more Fox News wing nut since the election, including pushing the big lie.

[wbrocks67]

Not surprising, Wild was always the least likely out of the bunch (Houlahan, Dean, Wild) IMO

[wbrocks67]

Interesting. I would bet that Dean stays out too at this point.

Hell, I don't even know if Lamb will actually jump in.

Would be interesting if it really came down to just Fetterman and Kenyatta. Kenyatta could then shore up all of SEPA (Arkoosh still seems like a non-starter to me)

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/jonathantamari/status/1404861440968757249?s=21

Not surprising, either. Looks like Lamb is the only major player left in question.

[wbrocks67]

I can't wait to see the GOP primary outcrazy each other, especially with people like Barnette, Bartos, and Parnell in the mix. Barnette is especially a specific brand of crazy.

If Lamb doesn't jump in, this is definitely Fetterman's. I'm torn though between Kenyatta and Lamb. I would love for PA to move into the 21st century and actually have a black senator, but Kenyatta needs a major breakthrough.

If it was between Lamb and Fetterman, I think I go with Lamb. But would of course full heartedly support Fetterman in the general.