PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[wbrocks67]

I think Oz wins by mid-single digits. Fetterman is running a very lazy campaign. Sad!

...... he's been out because of the stroke the last few weeks ....

I'm convinced you're just a robot at this point.

Even before the primary, he was just coasting on name recognition. That will not work against Oz, not in this environment.

He was at one point in the primary, but that was not the case in the final 1-2 months of the campaign.

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman isn't going to be replaced I'm not sure why it's even being discussed. The campaign doesn't start in earnest for months.

This. Fetterman has been appearing in videos on his social accounts - he's alive and well. Clearly he just is being told to wait to do any serious campaigning for a minute.

Meanwhile, the primary has been over and we have no GE polls still. Incredible.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1536090139172257793

You really are out here defending every single thing that every GOP member does. Must be exhausting.

[wbrocks67]

Even Oz's tweet about asking "who do YOU want to represent you in PA?" is so out of touch. His campaign is like something out of the year 2000 or something. It's painful to watch.

[wbrocks67]

I'm not sure where the idea that Fetterman won't do well in the Philly suburbs comes from? I'm welcome to a thoughtful discussion but I don't get why he'd be any different than a generic D? He topped or nearly topped 50% in all of the suburban counties in the primary, and if it's about him being progressive, I really think people should talk to people on the ground.

Small anecdote that I think I've said before, but my parents are nowhere near liberal, and usually go with the moderate candidate. I figured they'd like Lamb, but they actually liked Fetterman. He doesn't come off "progressive" at all. He just comes off common sense, and I think that's one of his strengths. I don't think attacking him as a "socialist" really works; he doesn't "look" like one, and the way he presents/talks about the issues, it doesn't *sound* progressive/liberal, even if it is.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/michaelwhitney/status/1537813754305556482

[wbrocks67]

I really don’t get where people get the idea that running an online campaign on Twitter is going to be successful.

You're acting as if Fetterman is only running an online campaign. He's running both.

[wbrocks67]

I guess Fetterman or Shapiro are running internal Civiqs polls. I've now been polled 4 times for PA races but none of them are public from what I can find.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1538912494869266433

[wbrocks67]

I feel like Fetterman would probably roast/destroy Oz in a debate pretty well, but again, how much that actually translates to votes is yet to be seen.

Also canidates twitters is usually only for the election nerds like us.

The thing is, Oz's twitter/social media seems like a direct extension of him and how he acts on the trail. He comes off seriously out of touch in person, and his social media just kinda proves that. So yes, the debates will be interesting for sure.

[wbrocks67]

LMAO at Oz even changing the background from red to blue.

He's trying to pivot, but I wouldn't necessarily say he's pivoting to the "center" right now since the only thing that has changed is Trump, not his platform or his views that he espoused during the primary (yet)

[wbrocks67]

Well and even Oz's explanation for his PA residence is dubious at best. He registered in PA in 2020 as he said him and his wife were "living with his in-laws"? So Dr. Oz has a mansion in NJ and literal millions, but where he's registered to vote/live "now", he's living in the same house with his in-laws? Huh?

[wbrocks67]

Going to be fun looking back at this thread after Oz wins and all the Democrats mocking him in this thread have to eat their words.

You're really bad at nuance. No one is saying any of that. Pretty sure everyone in this thread is in agreement - Oz certainly CAN win. No one is saying he can't. But the odds are clearly stacked against him in a reversal of fortune here, because given the environment, Oz is a terrible candidate with terrible favorables against a well-liked challenger. All of that could be taken under by the red environment, sure, but now with Roe, Oz has a LOT going against him in this race.

[wbrocks67]

LMAO yes, so much distancing from Trump in this "pivot"

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1541424982353387520

[wbrocks67]

I mean, objectively, if this is the best that Oz has...

https://twitter.com/DrOz/status/1541841056387547137

[wbrocks67]

It's ridiculous how immature the Fetterman campaign is, it looks like it's being run by a bunch of high school dropouts

and yet it's effective. one of the biggest liabilities for Oz is that he's out of touch (and not from PA). Fetterman seizing on both of those things is genius.

[wbrocks67]

I have no idea why Fetterman insists on running this terminally online campaign when it is clear what Democrats should be running on and what their messaging should be.

So should they just not use social media at all? People here are being really dense - you can run smart posts on social media without running a "terminally online campaign." Pretty sure Fetterman has run on numerous other issues (especially ones with major buys vs a simple f**king IG or Twitter post).

This analysis is just so black and white, y'all really need to start doing better.

Not just that, but as someone who lives in PA, yes, it IS a good idea to run on (among other things) the fact that Oz is NOT from PA, nor does he live here now!

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1544362910113300481

[wbrocks67]

Oz has gone dark on TV since the primary, and has been spending his time in New Jersey (shocker) quite a bit.

Very odd how he's using valuable time while Fetterman is still off the trail.

https://twitter.com/JakeLahut/status/1545092473575424002

[wbrocks67]

it truly gets worse and worse lmao

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1545100119456071681

[wbrocks67]

The crazy thing is, Oz could be up on the airwaves and doing stuff to blunt all of this. But he's basically MIA, with no ads up on TV and hanging out with people and filming campaign social videos in NJ.

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman raised $11M in Q2

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1546828676687429632

[wbrocks67]

Oz raised only $3M lol (he loaned himself $12M)

The interesting thing is, at least with Trump, he was able to con his voters into still donating to him even though he was rich and had money. I don't see Oz's appeals to the base working the same way, where it feels most will assume he's got the $ and they don't need to make small dollar donations.

[wbrocks67]

The genius of Fetterman's stuff is the audience, especially young people.

At a time when young people are completely cynical to everything politics, young voters in PA actually have a candidate (or candidates team also) that is speaking their language online. It goes a lot to 'enthusiasm'. This is the type of thing that I worried about in a theoretical world where Lamb was the nominee, for example.

Oz, meanwhile, comes off completely patronizing at every turn, and is basically a caricature at this point of a bozo is so just so out of touch that it's embarrassing.

Until Fetterman is back on the trail, his team has been objectively smart in doing stuff like this to get free (or very little $$ spent on) publicity. Hammering home the idea of Oz being some rich out of touch, out of state carpetbagger is possibly the best message they could push right now.

Meanwhile Oz is just limping along with his "Bernie Sanders socialist king john fetterman" stuff that, with many ads, is actually making Fetterman look MORE cool than he was before. (NRSC has a new 'socialist sasquatch' graphic out that is basically designed to make him look cool)

[wbrocks67]

This thread is frankly the epitome of the “candidate quality” meme. Now Oz could lose, but it’d have more to do with Republicans having an underperforming election performance than any vague things about “appeal” or whatever. Also I’m not convinced a one dimensional campaign about Oz’s carpetbagging is exactly going to be successful for the Democrats. Lastly, Democrats are going to have to eventually face the attacks that many of Fetterman’s views are outside of the mainstream and letting these attacks just go unanswered while Republicans refine how they plan to present them is not exactly a wise strategy. I’d put this on the border of Tilt and Lean R, but if Republicans win the GCB by 4 or 5, they’re almost certainly winning here.

Not really, though. Which Fetterman views are that outside of the mainstream? I would argue and counter that Oz has more extreme "views" at this point, especially on issues like abortion.