PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[wbrocks67]

More than 581,000 voters have already cast their votes in Tuesday’s election.

Nearly 453,000 registered Democrats and more than 125,000 Republicans had returned their mail ballots as of Monday morning, according to data from the Pennsylvania Department of State, which runs elections.

That’s about two-thirds of the nearly 879,000 voters who requested ballots.

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/live/pennsylvania-primary-election-2022-candidates-philadelphia-ballot-questions-20220516.html#card-1614264967

[wbrocks67]

The way that pundits speak about Fetterman is completely wrong. Some are saying they don't know how he'd play in the Philly suburbs in the GE. Uh... do they not get it? His whole thing is how he appeals to regular people. Him being "progressive" or some "far leftist" does not come thru at all. My parents, both moderate Democrats, never considered him to be some socialist leftist. They actually liked his experience as Lt Gov and thought he seemed like a good Pennsylvania candidate. Interestingly enough, Conor Lamb did not impress them. What is his biggest strength is how you can't exactly pin him down as any specific ideology.

Not to mention, the Philly suburbs are moderate Democrats for the most part, even Montgomery. It's not some leftist or conservative paradise, so a candidate like Fetterman is perfect imo.

[wbrocks67]

Tough to watch this immediate endorsement from Biden.  John has a chance to be a decent US Senator and we can only hope our ineffective corpse of a President doesn't drag him down along with his failing administration. 

lol you tried it. good try tho!

[wbrocks67]

Tough to watch this immediate endorsement from Biden.  John has a chance to be a decent US Senator and we can only hope our ineffective corpse of a President doesn't drag him down along with his failing administration.  

lol you tried it. good try tho!

I don't follow.  I mean, obviously Fetterman doesn't want someone with a ~20% approval among independents attached to his hip in what's going to be a close race.  And if you are gung-ho about "flipping" a seat I'd focus on intangibles rather than association with unpopular public figures.  This is smart stuff and I provide it for free.  Godspeed!

Fetterman's entire thing has been that he wants to be that 51st vote for Democrats, to prop *up* the Biden admin, to actually *help* get things done. So, no.

[wbrocks67]

I've seen people on my TL try saying that the PA Democratic Party endorsed Lamb and not only is this false, but also like.. who cares? lol

[wbrocks67]

There’s no way you can look at the primary results and think Dems are favored. Rs got 150k more votes in total and have more outstanding. Mastriano won decisively and has consolidated support.

What does it mean that the rural ‘rejected Oz decisively’? Do you seriously think McCormick voters are going to flip to Fetterman with Biden in office?

I was optimistic for PA Dems until I saw the actual votes come in today. Rs are out-registering Ds every single year in PA and for the first time have overtaken them in primary turnout (by a dominant amount). There’s no way to spin that as positive for Dems. Combine that with Fetterman having a stroke and my confidence in PA going Democrat this year has plummeted. Solid Lean R for both the Gov and Sen races.

For reference, compared to 2014, Ds gained 250k primary voters.

Rs gained a million.

Rs had almost as many primary votes as they earned in the general election for Governor in 2014.

Now all of this should only be seen as a correlate. The race is far from over and Dem enthusiasm is definitely up from where it was. But I’ve seen absolutely nothing in the results to indicate that Dems are going to significantly close the gap.

First of all, anyone who actually knows about PA data knows what the registration statistics mean, and the whole thing about Rs climbing and Ds falling is expected to anyone who pays attention. PA is a 50/50 state. There are MANY dixiecrats who have been voting R for years now who are now finally making it official. That's why the registration keeps creeping ever so close to 50/50, because that would mean that it's actually at parity with where the station is. Democrats do not have a real +6-8 edge in PA, as we all know. So the registration is still misleading, even now when Dems have over a +500k lead.

Also, when comparing primary turnout, well duh, Rs were going to outvote Ds. Rs had TWO competitive statewide primaries while Dems barely had 1, while Rs also had a few more competitive house primaries while Ds only had 2 I believe. Not to mention, the Sen GOP primary has been hyped nationally for weeks now.

Lastly IDK where you're getting your info but there is more D vote out than R vote now considering Ds voted way more by mail....

[wbrocks67]

BTW, I'd love to see James Carville right now. He's probably furious

What does Carville have anything to do with this? It seems he lives rent free in your head. Anyways while I supported Lamb too much energy was spent over this race for second place.

right? i've seen many people who were still slamming Lamb even after Fetterman lost... like I don't get what Lamb did to these people to make them so unhinged lmao.

[wbrocks67]

This is why McCormick still has chance

He cut into oz’s margin by 135 votes on only a 1k absentee dump from Chester

Well it just depends if the maiil-in vote was also newer or older. If it's older, then it's better for McCormick, but if it's late arriving mail-in, more likely it may help Oz.

[wbrocks67]

I'm from Montgomery County and i've never heard of Alex Khalil before this senate race, so it's amazing to me that 10% in Montco voted for her (even more than Kenyatta) purely bc she was from the area lol.

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman's strength in areas like Erie is insane. 80% of the vote is just wow.

[wbrocks67]

Turnout strong in the suburbs. Montgomery County still has vote out, but both Dems and Reps are at 39% turnout right now.

[wbrocks67]

You’re more pressed about this race that is OVER than any Lamb supporter I’ve seen. Lol.

Nah, I'm enjoying the cope from people like you after literally everything I've said about this race got proven right. Again - don't blame me because your candidate ran the most pathetic Dem campaign since Coakley.

you are literally the only one who hasn't moved on yet. girl let it go.

[wbrocks67]

What will be interesting to see how Trump/Oz react if McCormick pulls this out by like 500 votes or something. Will Trump call fraud? Will he refuse to endorse McCormick?

[wbrocks67]

How's the vote count coming along, btw?

Oz by 1,240 atm. Here's dave's take:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1527306642705879042

Love life for giving us a Fetterman win & dragging the GOP primary out for another month or 2, the perfect storm for a flip.

Ugh I just wish Fetterman was already healthy so he could be out there NOW

[wbrocks67]

I got polled for Civiqs for the PA GE races so we'll see if that turns up anywhere.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1527642800333934592

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, the amount of undated ballots is probably like 5K total in the state and 75% of that will be Dems, so the likely amount is only probably like 1-2K on the GOP side.

[wbrocks67]

Will votes be counted over the weekend or do we have to wait until Monday?

There may be a few votes here and there but I think we'll have to wait until Monday for more, unfortunately.

[wbrocks67]

Oz is the weaker candidate. Stop the count!

Both candidates are weak but I genuinely don't see how anyone could believe McCormick is the stronger of the two.

Oz has far more weak points and more of a questionable history than McCormick.

This. You can hit both as being out of touch millionaires, but Oz has way more baggage and trust issues as well with the Republican base. I would imagine that it's not just Rs but also swing voters who see him as a flip-flopper and a fraud, especially thanks to all the ads run against him. Not to mention, both are carpetbaggers, but Oz's is even more extreme since he's only "lived" in PA for two years, and even that is dubious at best.

McCormick's schtick could easily get more moderate Republicans, while Oz may have more trouble with that, and he seems more 'out of touch' than McCormick does as well.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/yesh222/status/1528787776405131266?t=oQDOXmLonHd-e2RH-i4x4g&...

This is... not true. PA SOS reported today there were still 5K possibly mail-ins left to report.

[wbrocks67]

More ballots counted and Oz still up by 900. McCormick's chances are dwindling by the day at this point.

[wbrocks67]

At this rate, it's hard to see how Oz loses the primary. There's just not enough left for McCormick to turn it over. While the undated mail ballots SHOULD be counted, it doesn't seem like there is enough to change the outcome either.

[wbrocks67]

Interesting - new polling of Latinos backs up the thought that McCormick would be a harder opponent for Fetterman than Oz.

Has Fetterman up 34% against McCormick (55-21) but up 46% against Oz (64-18)

https://futuremajority.org/wp-content/uploads/Future-Majority-Polling-Report-Latino-Voters-in-Arizona-Nevada-and-Pennsylvania.pdf

Fetterman +46 compares to

2020: Biden +42
2018 GOV: Wolf +36
2018 SEN: Casey +38
2016: Clinton +52

[wbrocks67]

So that's basically the death knell for McCormick. Good riddance to this transparent fraud. He's very anti-Trump during and after his presidency, only to play pretend America First™ during the primary, and then rely on and fight like hell to count not just mail-in ballots, but undated mail-in ballots. Republican voters I think will remember what he's done here for any future political endeavors.

To be fair, I think we can agree that both McCormick and Oz are both transparent frauds lol.

[wbrocks67]

I think Oz wins by mid-single digits. Fetterman is running a very lazy campaign. Sad!

...... he's been out because of the stroke the last few weeks ....

I'm convinced you're just a robot at this point.