PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[wbrocks67]

I don't understand why people think Oz is a net-negative candidate. He isn't great, but he has positive name recognition from his show, and he isn't running like a far-right winger. This is only a Biden+1 state up in a red wave year, and Trump even won it in 2016. Not to mention he will probably be facing Fetterman who is quite progressive.

Oz has barely been able to get 20%+ in most polls despite spending tens of millions of dollars in ads in 2022. I think that says a lot about how he is perceived in this campaign.

[wbrocks67]

I don't understand why people think Oz is a net-negative candidate. He isn't great, but he has positive name recognition from his show, and he isn't running like a far-right winger. This is only a Biden+1 state up in a red wave year, and Trump even won it in 2016. Not to mention he will probably be facing Fetterman who is quite progressive.

Oz has barely been able to get 20%+ in most polls despite spending tens of millions of dollars in ads in 2022. I think that says a lot about how he is perceived in this campaign.

The exact same applies to McCormick.

Yes, but McCormick is a total unknown and he has still managed to top Oz. My point being that Oz doesn't have as much positive name rec as people think. He's a known commodity, and it's possible his far-right turn is turning more people off at this point in the general electorate.

Pretty sure one of those GOP polls in the past few months also had his favorability nearly underwater even with GOP voters.

[wbrocks67]

Important to note that the GBAO poll is a Fetterman internal. I really wish there was more public polling of this race, and not just the primary but the GE as well.

RE: Philly mandates. It's funny how people who don't live here talk about the city. You'd be surprised at the amount of masks still worn before the announcement. Some people will be annoyed, but a lot of people in the city, especially minorities from what I've personally seen, have been masking all throughout, even when the mandate took a break.

[wbrocks67]

Given he only got $1M from PA, I'm assuming most of this $4.3M is self-funding

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1514196505829249024

[wbrocks67]

Favorabilities (among Democrats)
Josh Shapiro: 61/9 (+52)
Joe Biden: 74/23 (+51)
John Fetterman: 56/11 (+45) - 29% do not know
Conor Lamb: 39/12 (+27) - 44% do not know

Favorabilities (among Republicans)
Donald Trump: 78/18 (+60)
Lou Barletta: 34/6 (+28)
Douglas Mastriano: 24/8 (+16)
David McCormick: 29/15 (+14)
Mehmet Oz: 27/39 (-12)


Oz has a -12 favorability rating *AMONG REPUBLICANS* !

Meanwhile for Lamb it's still a huge name rec issue compared to Fetterman. Nearly 50% of the *Democratic electorate* doesn't even know him.

I wish they did a GE favorability ranking.

[wbrocks67]

Favorabilities (among Democrats)
Josh Shapiro: 61/9 (+52)
Joe Biden: 74/23 (+51)
John Fetterman: 56/11 (+45) - 29% do not know
Conor Lamb: 39/12 (+27) - 44% do not know

Favorabilities (among Republicans)
Donald Trump: 78/18 (+60)
Lou Barletta: 34/6 (+28)
Douglas Mastriano: 24/8 (+16)
David McCormick: 29/15 (+14)
Mehmet Oz: 27/39 (-12)


Oz has a -12 favorability rating *AMONG REPUBLICANS* !

Meanwhile for Lamb it's still a huge name rec issue compared to Fetterman. Nearly 50% of the *Democratic electorate* doesn't even know him.

I wish they did a GE favorability ranking.

This poll was taken prior to the endorsement, most voters don't even have an opinion on Oz and no candidate is above 20%.

66% of Republican primary voters have an opinion, so saying 'most voters don't have an opinion' is just factually wrong. And regardless, Oz has spent $10M+ on ads for this candidacy, and he's in negative double digits in favorability in his own party. There's no spinning that. Trump's endorsement will help I'm sure, but there's no way dressing this up.

[wbrocks67]

Favorabilities (among Democrats)
Josh Shapiro: 61/9 (+52)
Joe Biden: 74/23 (+51)
John Fetterman: 56/11 (+45) - 29% do not know
Conor Lamb: 39/12 (+27) - 44% do not know

Favorabilities (among Republicans)
Donald Trump: 78/18 (+60)
Lou Barletta: 34/6 (+28)
Douglas Mastriano: 24/8 (+16)
David McCormick: 29/15 (+14)
Mehmet Oz: 27/39 (-12)


Oz has a -12 favorability rating *AMONG REPUBLICANS* !

Meanwhile for Lamb it's still a huge name rec issue compared to Fetterman. Nearly 50% of the *Democratic electorate* doesn't even know him.

I wish they did a GE favorability ranking.

This poll was taken prior to the endorsement, most voters don't even have an opinion on Oz and no candidate is above 20%.

66% of Republican primary voters have an opinion, so saying 'most voters don't have an opinion' is just factually wrong. And regardless, Oz has spent $10M+ on ads for this candidacy, and he's in negative double digits in favorability in his own party. There's no spinning that. Trump's endorsement will help I'm sure, but there's no way dressing this up.

Actually, I'm not surprised that Oz's approvals are negative among Republicans. I've said before that many of them did not welcome his candidacy when he announced it, and many of them believe that he is a RINO, because of his prior positions on issues such as abortion and gun control. Moreover, many of them don't like that he is a carpetbagger and they are suspicious of his celebrity ties. I wouldn't be surprised if phobias surrounding his name and religion may also play a part.

But does this imply that Oz would be an underdog in the general? Would he do any better in the suburbs because of his name recognition and background? I'm pretty certain that the Republican base will still coalesce firmly behind him if he becomes the nominee.

I'm sure in the end they mostly will, but given the intense dislike that appears to be towards Oz among some of the GOP electorate, you have to wonder if there's a chunk won't be too excited to go out and vote for him (especially if there's another terrible GOP candidate on the GOV side). I think the point here is that PA will likely be very close either way, so every vote counts, and Oz is lucky this is a red year b/c it appears that a lot of his own voters appear very apathetic to him.

But you're right, I think a lot of it has to do with the "RINO" label and carpet-bagging. Oz appears incredibly disingenuous with his entire schtick right now, and it appears even GOP voters are seeing that.

[wbrocks67]

Favorabilities (among Democrats)
Josh Shapiro: 61/9 (+52)
Joe Biden: 74/23 (+51)
John Fetterman: 56/11 (+45) - 29% do not know
Conor Lamb: 39/12 (+27) - 44% do not know

Favorabilities (among Republicans)
Donald Trump: 78/18 (+60)
Lou Barletta: 34/6 (+28)
Douglas Mastriano: 24/8 (+16)
David McCormick: 29/15 (+14)
Mehmet Oz: 27/39 (-12)


Oz has a -12 favorability rating *AMONG REPUBLICANS* !

Meanwhile for Lamb it's still a huge name rec issue compared to Fetterman. Nearly 50% of the *Democratic electorate* doesn't even know him.

I wish they did a GE favorability ranking.

This poll was taken prior to the endorsement, most voters don't even have an opinion on Oz and no candidate is above 20%.

66% of Republican primary voters have an opinion, so saying 'most voters don't have an opinion' is just factually wrong. And regardless, Oz has spent $10M+ on ads for this candidacy, and he's in negative double digits in favorability in his own party. There's no spinning that. Trump's endorsement will help I'm sure, but there's no way dressing this up.

Actually, I'm not surprised that Oz's approvals are negative among Republicans. I've said before that many of them did not welcome his candidacy when he announced it, and many of them believe that he is a RINO, because of his prior positions on issues such as abortion and gun control. Moreover, many of them don't like that he is a carpetbagger and they are suspicious of his celebrity ties. I wouldn't be surprised if phobias surrounding his name and religion may also play a part.

But does this imply that Oz would be an underdog in the general? Would he do any better in the suburbs because of his name recognition and background? I'm pretty certain that the Republican base will still coalesce firmly behind him if he becomes the nominee.

I'm sure in the end they mostly will, but given the intense dislike that appears to be towards Oz among some of the GOP electorate, you have to wonder if there's a chunk won't be too excited to go out and vote for him (especially if there's another terrible GOP candidate on the GOV side). I think the point here is that PA will likely be very close either way, so every vote counts, and Oz is lucky this is a red year b/c it appears that a lot of his own voters appear very apathetic to him.

But you're right, I think a lot of it has to do with the "RINO" label and carpet-bagging. Oz appears incredibly disingenuous with his entire schtick right now, and it appears even GOP voters are seeing that.

I've gone on to conservative websites to see their reaction to his candidacy, and it is largely negative. Many Republicans believe Trump is making a mistake by endorsing Oz. Perhaps they are fearful that once in the Senate, he will become another Mitt Romney, Ben Sasse, or Lisa Murkowski. Or perhaps they remember Arlen Specter, who was too moderate for the Republican base, who almost lost the Republican primary to Pat Toomey in 2004 (and was bailed out by the support he got from Bush and Santorum), and who switched parties in 2010 because he knew he wouldn't win the Republican primary again. It's likely Republican voters don't want to repeat what happened with Specter.

Though do GOP voters have that much trust in McCormick? Because IMO he's been just as disingenuous with his 180 into total MAGA as well.

[wbrocks67]

Here's how Q1 fundraising went. This is just donors and excludes self-funding

Dave McCormick (R) $4.35M
John Fetterman (D) $3.10M
Conor Lamb (D) $1.75M
Mehmet Oz (R) $1.71M
Kathy Barnette (R) $357K
Malcolm Kenyatta (D) $306K
George Bochetto (R) $205K
Jeff Bartos (R) $120K
Carla Sands (R) $104K

[wbrocks67]

I mean, objectively, Conor's position isn't radical and is pretty common sense, lining up with most Democrats in a primary (as well as others)

Both of there answers are right, neither is wrong. Again, the way this sub is villainizing Lamb is just so exhausting. This is so childish and petty. Grow up.

[wbrocks67]

I mean, objectively, Conor's position isn't radical and is pretty common sense, lining up with most Democrats in a primary (as well as others)

It's not common sense at all. COVID is endemic now and there's no need for any sort of mask mandate anywhere.

Institute mask mandates and watch your party get destroyed. But you can just pretend everything's OK by looking at your beloved DCCC internals.

if you're not willing to have a mature conversation please just dont even respond.

[wbrocks67]

I am currently backing Conor Lamb, but I've watched Kenyatta effectively articulate himself and make his case. I could honestly see Lamb come in third. I agree that he really needs to switch this up and differentiate himself in the field. He's giving off too many "generic Dem" vibes and not enough energy brought to the table. I like his calm demeanor and blue-collar sentiment.

However, I could end up voting for Kenyatta if this keeps up. Fetterman, on the other hand, is unapologetic and comes off as callous. He's a terrible debater and can't throw together coherent points. Even still, he's the front-runner and doubt he wins the general. The man is too far left.

Then why is he winning easily? He can't be that bad of a candidate if he is crushing the field.

Purely name recognition and more funds. Nothing more.

Seethe and cope

This is the truth, though. Whether people want to admit it or not, I live in PA, and no one that I know is paying attention to these primaries, on either side tbh. We're less than a month out and it does not feel like there is an election coming out. So I do believe that a lot of Fettermans lead is coming from name rec objectively. I really don't think anything has to do with who is running a good or bad campaign at this point.

Same reason Kenyatta is so low. No one outside of Philly (and even many in the city) don't know who he is.

[wbrocks67]

Why as Alex Khalil even included in the debate?

[wbrocks67]

For better or worse, Lamb’s clearly doing something wrong if he’s still getting crushed by Fetterman.  At this point, all my concerns still stand and I think Fetterman underperform in the GE.  However, I hope Fetterman proves me wrong and kicks some a** this November!  Congrats, Sawx and hopefully the party does the right the thing and does everything it can to elect Fetterman when he (presumably) gets nominated in a few weeks.

I think it will. The jogger incident doesn't seem to be resonating (yet) with voters at large.

Like I've said though, being on the ground here in PA, it doesn't feel like a primary is happening. Few yard signs, people not tuned in. The latter really is the most detrimental to Lamb and Kenyatta since they are less known.

[wbrocks67]

Among Democrats.... (favs)
John Fetterman: 68/5 (+63)
Conor Lamb: 51/6 (+45)
Malcolm Kenyatta: 32/4 (+28)
Alexandria Khalil: 11/1 (+10)

Among Republicans... (favs)
David McCormick: 51/15 (+36)
Kathy Barnette: 37/5 (+32)
Jeff Bartos: 28/6 (+22)
Carla Sands: 25/4 (+21)
George Bochetto: 7/3 (+4)
Sean Gale: 7/4 (+3)
Mehmet Oz: 48/37 (+11)

That Oz number among a GOP primary is.... truly something. I would love to know what these numbers look like for the entire electorate (for both sides)

[wbrocks67]

I swear, it still feels like this primary isn't even happening.

Near where I'm from in Montgomery County, there is usually a ton of signs put up by now in the area. All the ones that I've seen are mostly just the ones that county GOP put up for Rick Saccone for LG and a few for Charles Gerow for Governor. The county GOP does not seem to be pushing any of the candidates in particular for Senate, and I have not seen a single sign for Oz, McCormick, or Lamb. I've only seen 1 Fetterman sign and it looks like it was from his 2018 run.

[wbrocks67]

Given last nights results, I could easily see the same pileup where we get like Oz 30%, McCormick 24%, Barnette 22%, etc.

[wbrocks67]

Barnette would be the best of the three candidates IMO for Republicans.

In a GE? Absolutely not. Maybe in 2020 before she was outed as a far-right extremist, but she literally participated in the insurrection and not only said the 2020 vote was rigged, but refused to concede in her own race when she lost by... 20%.

[wbrocks67]

Barnette would be the best of the three candidates IMO for Republicans.

In a GE? Absolutely not. Maybe in 2020 before she was outed as a far-right extremist, but she literally participated in the insurrection and not only said the 2020 vote was rigged, but refused to concede in her own race when she lost by... 20%.

Oz isn't popular with the base and is totally unproven, McCormick is a trust fund baby who supported Biden until recently. How are MAGA Republicans going to be excited for that?

PA's base it not as hugely MAGA as other states, and you have a lot of moderate republicans who would be very turned off by Barnette's antics.

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman actually has a better favorability now than Shapiro, which I've got to hand it to him - is very impressive.

Meanwhile, Oz is still considerably underwater even with the GOP primary electorate.

(all from new F&M poll)

Among Democrats (fav):
Joe Biden: 80/18 (was 74/23 in April)
John Fetterman: 67/8 (was 56/11 in April)
Josh Shapiro: 62/10 (was 61/9 in April)
Conor Lamb: 46/9 (was 39/12 in April)


Among Republicans (fav):
Donald Trump: 70/26 (was 78/18 in April)
Dave McCormick: 31/17 (was 29/15 in April)
Lou Barletta: 31/11 (was 34/6 in April)
Doug Mastriano: 29/12 (was 24/8 in April)
Mehmet Oz: 29/41 (was 27/39 in April)
Bill McSwain: 27/7
Dave White: 23/7

[wbrocks67]

At this point, if nothing changes between now and election day, I'll be voting for Fetterman, if anything to give him a stronger lead in the final result. Lamb just hasn't been able to connect and if he's really going down in the polls at this point, then there's nothing left to save him.

I will say, from a young persons standpoint, I do see quite a bit of people I know who are also young (millennial) who seem to like Fetterman's stuff, while many seem to have vitriol towards Lamb, so Fetterman seems like the best choice as well for youth turnout in the fall.

[wbrocks67]

It's amusing, to be honest. If Lamb is the best candidate, why isn't he crushing Fetterman in the polls?

Objectively again, being on the ground in PA, Fetterman just has better name rec and that has always been helpful in driving him forward. Lamb certainly has clearly had issues connecting with voters, but I also think he overestimated how well known he was statewide.

[wbrocks67]

My gut says Barnette wins the primary.

I think so, too. Braun 2018 dynamic at play. Have to see whether or not she can get in front of voters in these remaining days, though. Braun had plenty to spend in a much smaller market.

If Barnette had money to spend, she probably could. But her campaign cash has been extremely limited.

[wbrocks67]

Something else to consider - Lamb may ultimately be okay with losing. Someone else in another forum brought up the idea that if Shapiro wins GOV, he's very likely to appoint Lamb as AG.

[wbrocks67]

@ all the people who think Barnette is "weak" "too extreme" to win: she overperformed Trump by 5 in suburban Montgomery County-based PA-04 against an incumbent D in 2020.

You're missing the point, and something I've already mentioned. In 2020, Barnette was an unknown commodity and I know several people who thought she was some type of 'moderate R.'

Problem for Barnette is that everything she did after the election in 2020 was bat sh**t insane and proved that she was way more extreme than originally thought