PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/drmattkenyatta/status/1505626944913780742

Never forget what the state party did to this man for the horrible, heinous crime of being a progressive.

what exactly did the state party do that was so terrible?

Froze him out of the primary race in favor of your preferred candidate.

No one is freezing anyone out - the state party hasn't even made an endorsement has effectively stayed out. I have nothing against Malcolm but we can't keep doing this whole conspiracy BS just bc your preferred candidate isn't doing well.

[wbrocks67]

Part of it is the professionalization of the party - the same sext of the party that sees the primary process like a job interview. Lamb's on-paper resume is impeccable. Part of it is Kenyatta being a progressive.

But I'd be lying if I didn't think race and SO had a part in Lamb's coronation.

Fetterman is a progressive too, so I don't think it really has anything to do with that. I do think there is something to be said how the party (and voters in general) deem "electability" in terms of white vs. black, but at the same time, Lamb also objectively has the most bonafides in the race - and the most widespread electoral winning history, so it's not like it's a total surprise that he is getting all the endorsements, etc.

[wbrocks67]

For the love of god, there is no reason to compare Lamb and Sinema. Stop.

[wbrocks67]

I'm surprised Fetterman beat Lamb (slightly) in the Montco vote. Montco is very blue now but still very much of a Hillary/Biden "pragmatic" blue. Then again, Fetterman may not be seen as "super liberal" by a lot of people right now.

[wbrocks67]

I don't buy the Dean is a "elitist" comment. She's my congresswoman and she's super local and I even know a few Rs who actually voted for her bc she's actually really involved in the local politics here. She's a very liberal woman, but I don't that automatically means she couldn't win or is naturally "elitist"

[wbrocks67]

People still pay attention to James Carville? Lol

Anyway, this seat remains a longshot for any Democrat, and the insistence that only one Democrat (always the preferred one of the person speaking) can win and would outperform any other by a ton is tiresome.

A "longshot" is being a bit ridiculous. The environment was only slightly better for Biden/Dems in November and McLaughlin lost by <1 in the SC race. Not to mention, Oz and McCormick are still bottom tier candidates on the GOP side.

I get that it's a red wave year, but the GOP bench on both races is *bad* and that should not be understated.

[wbrocks67]

Both Lamb and Fetterman are full throttle with TV ads. I've seen both recently on cable like CNN also local like ABC.

[wbrocks67]

I literally could give two sh** what any super pac is saying. This is a primary, words will be slung from all opponents.

[wbrocks67]

I think the people here moaning either about Kenyatta or about the 'other great candidates who didn't run' are the most delusional of all. For those of you who have forgotten - Democrats from SEPA DO NOT WIN. Again and again the party has tried throwing these candidates at the electorate and again and again they've failed. The rest of the state hates them. Every Democratic win statewide has come from someone from another part of the state. The closest thing to a SEPA Democrat to win the state top-ticket since Rendell was Biden, and he also emphasizes his Scranton tie more than anything.


There are arguments as to whether Lamb or Fetterman is the better candidate. I've been disappointed in Fetterman thus far - he seemed to put more effort in his Lt Gov race in 2018 than this race! - but it's still very early. If he ramps things up now we've seen before that he can be a decently complelling candidate. If nothing else, we ought to remind ourself what most of this forum was saying about Warnock throwing away his race by not campaigning - and that was much much closer to the election than this is.

Don't forget about Josh Shapiro - I think he's really the only SEPA candidate that has done well statewide. But yes, despite how big SEPA is, for some reason the candidates rarely win from this area.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1509611099959996416

[wbrocks67]

Lamb officially goes there.

https://twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/1509667056760799234

[wbrocks67]

I need to see more polling of this race to see where it really stands. We're all assuming Fetterman has leads but the only things we've gotten are flimsy Emerson and F&M polls. Would like to see some more legit surveys (especially recently when both have started running ads) to really see where this thing is.

Very possible Fetterman actually has those leads, but both polls so far have been messy.

[wbrocks67]

We do really need more polls for this race. Is it just me, or has polling been unusually sparse for 7 months away from the general/2 months from the primary?

Fetterman isn't dominant, he's got 33% of the vote, but Lamb has just been so weak. They both just seem like 6/10 candidates in a year of depressed Dem enthusiasm. Hard to see them winning the general. I used to think both were pretty good candidates, but Lamb doesn't seem to have statewide appeal and Fetterman has been a lazy campaigner.

There's just a general low interest in this race entirely. It's not just Dems. The Rep side has been inundated with ads for Oz and McCormick for months now and both are literally sitting at like 14% in polls too. Voters just aren't plugged into this entire race at all.

But polling has been sparse, which is why I want to see more to see if Fetterman has a legitimate edge.

[wbrocks67]

Very interested to see fundraising for this race for Q1.

[wbrocks67]

Has Lamb shifted to right since entering congress in 2018? I feel like opinion of him was fairly positive in 2018 in the aftermath of that special election. If I remember correctly, he was even mentioned as senate, gov or VP material. Now seems like nobody really likes him.

I wouldn't say "nobody", but we're once again seeing the far left/progressives do this. This is 2016 all over again. Fetterman is Bernie and Conor is Hillary.

Look, I'll support whoever the nominee is. If it's Conor, great. If it's Fetterman, great. If it's somehow Kenyatta, great. But the way the purity tests keep charging through and we keep doing this BS hate spewing when we're all on the same side is ridiculous.

People here just "don't like" Lamb now because he dared go up against liberal hero John Fetterman. It's all getting exhausting. People sitting here trying to attack Lamb as if Fetterman is perfect (News flash - neither are).

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman raised $3.1M in Q1

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1511331592752484363

[wbrocks67]

Truly amazing stuff folks. The Democrat establishment does a full court press to stop Fetterman, and instead of getting behind the hard-working, gay black progressive grinder, they try to coronate the whitest, most unseasoned chicken ass politician since Kasich.

This is why the Democrat Party establishment is out of touch with its voters.

JFC, just stop already. This is getting exhausting and making this thread toxic.

[wbrocks67]

Truly amazing stuff folks. The Democrat establishment does a full court press to stop Fetterman, and instead of getting behind the hard-working, gay black progressive grinder, they try to coronate the whitest, most unseasoned chicken ass politician since Kasich.

This is why the Democrat Party establishment is out of touch with its voters.

JFC, just stop already. This is getting exhausting and making this thread toxic.

I literally could give two sh** what any Lamb supporter is saying. This is a primary, words will be slung from all opponents.

Pretty sure I never said who I was voting for in the primary and said I would support any of them in the general, which is more than what you have vowed.

[wbrocks67]

Truly amazing stuff folks. The Democrat establishment does a full court press to stop Fetterman, and instead of getting behind the hard-working, gay black progressive grinder, they try to coronate the whitest, most unseasoned chicken ass politician since Kasich.

This is why the Democrat Party establishment is out of touch with its voters.

JFC, just stop already. This is getting exhausting and making this thread toxic.

I literally could give two sh** what any Lamb supporter is saying. This is a primary, words will be slung from all opponents.

Pretty sure I never said who I was voting for in the primary and said I would support any of them in the general, which is more than what you have vowed.

Anyone hear a wind? It's whooshing at 78 mph.

This is why Dems will lose. Because of nonsense purity tests when people don't get their way. 2016 all over again.

[wbrocks67]

This is why Dems will lose. Because of nonsense purity tests when people don't get their way. 2016 all over again.

You made the argument against your own position better than I could, so I just borrowed your own words. You know, the post you yourself made when Lamb and Friends were lying about Fetterman being a socialist. Or is it only "just a primary bro" when it's candidates you like doing the nastiness?

Let's be real. wbrocks doesn't want unity or a clean race. He wants silence.

You're insanely putting words in my mouth now. I said I would vote for whoever the nominee is in November, how is that not unity? YOU are literally the one who has not said if you would do the same, which leads me to believe you really don't care about your own priorities in this race since you'd rather let an R win then.

[wbrocks67]

Truly amazing stuff folks. The Democrat establishment does a full court press to stop Fetterman, and instead of getting behind the hard-working, gay black progressive grinder, they try to coronate the whitest, most unseasoned chicken ass politician since Kasich.

This is why the Democrat Party establishment is out of touch with its voters.

This could just as easily be spun the other way:

Truly amazing stuff folks.  The Berniecrat wing does a full court press to stop Lamb, and instead of getting behind the young, hard-working, gay black progressive, they try to coronate a completely untested white guy who chased around an unarmed African-American with a shotgun and has been running one of the laziest campaigns in recent memory.

This is why the Berniecrat establishment is out of touch Democratic voters.

The difference here is that your candidate is struggling to break away from that young, hard-working gay black progressive.

Wait I just realized that you don't even like in PA, correct? So you're not even voting here?

[wbrocks67]

Lol you guys are arguing about which guy will lose by 2% to the Republican candidate.

2% is a pretty generous estimate at this point.

Not sure why people are acting as if PA is going to be decided by like 5%. It's a red year but given the GOP's terrible bench and PA usually being close either way, it's likely going to be <2% in either direction.

[wbrocks67]

The GOP tried the "farther right" thing in 2018 and that's why they lost so badly. The environment was already terrible for them of course, but for either party to lose by 13 and 17 in Pennsylvania of all places it means that not only the environment is bad, but the candidates are bad, and Barletta and Wagner are kind of a perfect encapsulation of how bad this years is - in that the GOV is even worse than the Senate side. But none of these candidates - or frontrunners, that is - are really exciting the base. After a ton of advertising, no one can even hit 30%, let alone 20-25% in most polls, and their fundraising is all horrific.

At least with Fetterman you can say he's a prolific fundraiser and is clearly energizing his base. No one on the GOP side - on either GOV or SEN - is exciting the base in really any way, it seems, so that's why I think their particularly worse than usual.

I don't think a moderate would be doing any better - if anything, they'd be exciting the base even less. The fact that kooks like Mastriano, Barnette, even Oz at this point, are not exciting the base, is telling.

[wbrocks67]

McCormick was a stronger GE candidate than Trump. He doesn't excite the MAGA crowd as much but would've been a better fit for the moderate crowd (even though he's not moderate at all, just better at concealing the crazy than the others)

Oz is clearly struggling in the primary despite spending tens of millions of dollars, but this is probably enough to send him over the edge. Oz has disparaged his image though, so let's not act like he's a great fit for the GE.

[wbrocks67]

McCormick was a stronger GE candidate than Trump. He doesn't excite the MAGA crowd as much but would've been a better fit for the moderate crowd (even though he's not moderate at all, just better at concealing the crazy than the others)

Oz is clearly struggling in the primary despite spending tens of millions of dollars, but this is probably enough to send him over the edge. Oz has disparaged his image though, so let's not act like he's a great fit for the GE.

I disagree. I think he can appeal to suburbanite women who remember him as the TV guy who Oprah likes.
And it's not like Oz is running a far-right campaign, so fair his campaign seems focused on healthcare and energy.

Problem is that Oz has ruined that image, with the last year of his far-right campaign and him being attached to Trump now. Not gonna do well with suburban women at this point, and his campaign *has* been far-right. The "issues" he's been raising since he started his campaign have  not just been "healthcare" and "energy"