Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[wbrocks67]

Biden's #s are absolute crap with 18-34 in NJ as well which is unsurprising. Major part of why his approval rating is tanked there. Until Biden gets tangible things done, this group is not likely to hit 'approve' anytime soon (though they're also not voting R anytime soon either...)

[wbrocks67]

Could someone please find my statewide polling map?

OK, OK, OK... some legislative success is likely to improve things for President Biden. 

I wonder if legislative success will actually move the needle much though?

I think what's sinking Biden the most right now is the notion of nothing getting done and the "chaos" in Washington. People need to see stuff getting done and feel tangible benefits, and right now all they see is fighting, fighting, fighting with nothing getting passed.

[wbrocks67]

Inflation and high gas prices were just as much of a problem last month, so how did we go from about even to -18 in a single month on the economy? That just seems absurd.

[wbrocks67]

F&M Poll of Pennsylvania -

Biden fav: 45/51 (-6)
(was 46/50 in June)

Biden job:
Excellent job: 5% (was 16% in August)
Good job: 27% (was 25% in August)
Fair job: 20% (was 14% in August)
Poor job: 47% (was 44% in August)

Looks like a lot of 'excellent' when to 'good' or 'fair'. Interesting though that the favorability is basically the same as June's.

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/355860667842193878-keyoct21-toplines.pdf

[wbrocks67]

Brutal....

https://twitter.com/TrumpJew2/status/1454803073931563011?s=20

The getting things done part is funny because when Trump had the trifecta, what really got done objectively?

The -7 for RV is basically on par with the 538 average. Not surprised they went with the -12 one though to drive the 'Biden in disarray!!!' coverage

[wbrocks67]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/11/07/biden-approval-falls-38-midterms-loom-usa-today-suffolk-poll/6320098001/?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot

Increasingly, it feels like people are living in an a alternate universe because reading this USA today article you would have no idea that all of this is currently happening under Biden right now





Covid has also massively declined around the country, yet based on how some of the folks in the USA today article are acting you would think unemployment was at 20 percent and covid wiped out half the US population lol

I Used to think that worries about inflation was driving all of this, but to be honest, I'm not sure I buy that anymore. President Gerald Ford had inflation and a far worse economy, but even he was not getting numbers like this. I think what we are really seeing is the effect disinformation on social media is having on Biden and the Dems. Facebook has actually convinced a lot of people that they are in the middle of the Great depression....

Yep, nearly 50% in the latest YouGov Economist poll say "the economy is getting worse." I almost can't tell if people are either living in an alternate reality, or they really think that the entire economy is based on inflation and gas prices. I feel like it's the latter, b/c that's the only that makes sense.

[wbrocks67]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/11/07/biden-approval-falls-38-midterms-loom-usa-today-suffolk-poll/6320098001/?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot

Increasingly, it feels like people are living in an a alternate universe because reading this USA today article you would have no idea that all of this is currently happening under Biden right now





Covid has also massively declined around the country, yet based on how some of the folks in the USA today article are acting you would think unemployment was at 20 percent and covid wiped out half the US population lol

I Used to think that worries about inflation was driving all of this, but to be honest, I'm not sure I buy that anymore. President Gerald Ford had inflation and a far worse economy, but even he was not getting numbers like this. I think what we are really seeing is the effect disinformation on social media is having on Biden and the Dems. Facebook has actually convinced a lot of people that they are in the middle of the Great depression....

Yep, nearly 50% in the latest YouGov Economist poll say "the economy is getting worse." I almost can't tell if people are either living in an alternate reality, or they really think that the entire economy is based on inflation and gas prices. I feel like it's the latter, b/c that's the only that makes sense.

even that really does not make sense because Obama had a worse economy and high gas prices in 2012 and his numbers were still not as low as Biden currently is right now

As I said before, I'm not longer buying this inflation argument because we had many presidents who faced high inflation and high gas prices yet not a single one of them was as low as Biden is

At this point I'm convinced that social media is having a far bigger impact on how American see the economy than many of us would like to admit

I also think it's a lot of the mainstream news outlets as well. GMA, Today, all of the news programs that many regular Americans watch have been yelling "supply chain crisis!" for weeks now among other things, so I think there is a sense that things are much worse than they are because that's what they're being told.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1457414545266327553?s=20

Biden's approval rating is bad, but it's probably not that bad.

Suffolk has been the worst non-R affiliated pollster for Democrats the past few years. Biden's approval is definitely not this bad, but the trend is still -7 net from their last poll.

The "worst" pollsters for Democrats were the best ones in 2016/2020 and now in VA/NJ, but still on average underestimated GOP.

Back to VA/NJ. We didn't get any exit polls from NJ (having Biden's approvals underwater), but vi gave a lot of polls and VA's exit polls, he was -7 underwater. Given that VA was 14 point towards Democrats in 2020, you'll get... -7 -14 = -21... Exactly, what Suffolk showed.  Not just NJ/VA, but IMHO the state polling overall indicate, that national polling overrates Biden's "true" approvals.

I obviously prefer the average rather than single polls, but Biden's approval definitely could be that bad right now.

Yeah, I really wish we had a NJ exit poll to compare with the VA one. The VA one points to a worse Biden national average than what he has right now.

However, results in GA and PA don't point to an approval that is as bad as the VA one, so that's what makes the picture more murky.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RealignmentP/status/1457722053520502785?t=6uS2LzKT90AqVwND9L...

Yeah, it's clear this poll is junk.

Not just because "I don't like it" but this doesn't add up to anything else we've seen. YouGov has had Biden's favorability pretty consistently at like -5-7 recently (and Trump being -15-17)

[wbrocks67]

New CNN/SSRS poll (Nov 1-4)

Biden approval-
Adults: 48/52 (50/49 in early October)
RV: 45/54

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2021/images/11/08/rel7a.-.politics.pdf

[wbrocks67]

New CNN/SSRS poll (Nov 1-4)

Biden approval-
Adults: 48/52 (50/49 in early October)
RV: 45/54

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2021/images/11/08/rel7a.-.politics.pdf

Sign of a shift, closer to late-summer (September) reality? I'm saying nothing so far. Completion of a map is a valid exercise.

Nope. Biden got all-time low. The trend is still awful. -5 shift among Adults, and -9 points shift among RV since October.

Adults:
48 (-2 since OCT 7-11, 2021)
52 (+3)


RV:
45 (-5)
54 (+4)


   
(C)-rated CNN/SSRS
NOV 1-4, 2021
1,004   A
859   RV

And as the poll states, the demographic most dragging down Biden's performance in this poll is actually young voters, which we've seen in many polls now. Funny enough, if young voters 'approved' the same way that they vote (obviously big D advantage), Biden's approvals would be fine right now, but young voters are clearly disillusioned at what they see as not enough progress on the things they care about

[wbrocks67]

Leger; nov 5-7

Approve; 45% (+2)
Disapprove; 54% (=)

Politico; nov 5-7

Approve; 46% (+1)
Disapprove; 49% (-2)

the BIF... her impact

[wbrocks67]

Biden gets All-time Low from (B)-rated Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research

NOV 4-8, 2021
1,500   LV
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/biden_approval_index_history

LV:
40/59

Strongly:
21/49

it's easy to get an all-time low when they make up the polling data

[wbrocks67]

Could just be noise but so far the few polls that have been taking in the aftermath of BIF have shown a few pt difference. Will be interesting to watch.

[wbrocks67]

USA Today poll was off Biden wasn't at 37 percent Approvals

In line with VA/NJ.

If we're basing it off of national,

New Jersey was D+3, down 16% from 2020, which would be 13% shift from 2020. That would suggest Biden -9 national approval

Virginia was R+2, down from D+10 from 2020, which would be 12% shift from 2020. That would suggest Biden -8 national approval. However, Biden's approval in the exit poll (-7) would suggest -13 national approval.

While Murphy and Youngkin are not necessarily proxies for Biden/Ds given local environments of the race, funny how both results (not the exit poll) point to an -8/-9 national approval, and the 538 average right now is -8.5.

So as much as we get annoyed with the 538 tracker, it's actually been incredibly on point with these elections and was also on point with the CA race and how much that one shifted (results pointed to a -3/-4 national approval for Biden and that's what 538 suggested on recall election day)

Sorry this is long-winded but Tuesday's results and 538's aggregate are all approximating that Biden's approval is about -8/-9 right now natonally.

[wbrocks67]

Well, the Monmouth Poll also lines up perfectly with the average right now, so yeah, seems to be that Biden is at about -8 right now nationally.

[wbrocks67]

Global strategies research group (GRG)

Approve; 47% (+4)
Disapprove; 50% (-3)

The dumpster fire may be extinguished.

Yeah, we're getting a bit of conflicting reports - polls like this one and YouGov are showing some improvement, though Ipsos was a bit down and then RMG was way down. I guess we'll need to wait a bit longer.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/TomBevanRCP/status/1460668870298058757?s=20

There's nothing pundits love more than screaming "new low!!!" every time it drops like 0.2%

[wbrocks67]

The Winston Group

45% approve
47% disapprove

https://s-corp.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/S-Corp-National-Survey-Key-Findings-Nov-2021.pdf

Honestly, these polls are all over the place, ranging from like -2 (this/Marquette) to like -6/-7 (YouGov) to like -17 (Qunnipiac) so it's still just best to look at the 538 average at this point.

[wbrocks67]

The Winston Group

45% approve
47% disapprove

https://s-corp.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/S-Corp-National-Survey-Key-Findings-Nov-2021.pdf

All-time low from (A/B)-rated The Winston Group
NOV 10-12, 2021
1,000 RV

RV:
45 (-1 since SEP 4-8)
47 (+3)


Btw, the last poll of Trump had him at 46/47 at October 2020, so it confirms my "hot take", that Biden right now is less popular than Trump right before election.

Not sure how this is relevant, since a proper comparison would be Trump's -18 average net approval at this time in 2017

[wbrocks67]

The way that VRB is literally obsessed with running in here saying "all time low" every 5 seconds is... something

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1466091783843196933?t=Rm16GLno7AZSTLYSD4...

Trashlolger at it again… also 65% approval with Dems???

A non negligible amount of Biden disapproval is coming from the left.

Yea but 35% of Dems? When other polls have Biden over 90% approval with Dems. Trashgarbagelolger

After what happened in New Jersey and Virginia, I don't think it's wise to dismiss Trafalgar.

Eh, their VA poll also had Biden with like a 40/58 approval in VA and exit polls pegged it at like 46/53.

[wbrocks67]

And other

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1468289128529899527?s=20

Holy Smokes! Republicans also have a whopping 18-Point lead when it comes to who would better handle inflation.

Which is a ridiculous question anyway. Inflation is literally happening GLOBALLY, no matter what party is in charge. Anyone who thinks that Biden has legitimate control over it or a Republican would have some master plan to change it is kidding themselves.

[wbrocks67]

And other

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1468289128529899527?s=20

The media has truly done a number on Biden's approval. We've got kids getting vaccines, booster shots widely available, and the economy by all technical standards is actually very healthy right now. And yet you wouldn't know it at all if you watched *any* news cast. You'd think we were in a worse economic crisis than 2008.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/BidensWork/status/1470476938372390914

Biden is the comeback kid, like Bill Clinton.

*if you cherrypick polls.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

.we still have 336 days til the Election

The Rs haven't cracked the 278 blue wall since 2016 and we won 80M votes

Fox and MSNBC says Rs are Favs in H the D's only have a 221/213Majority 3 seat and D's are Favs in the S due to ,304 blue Wall WI, OA, CO, NV, AZ and NH  but we don't know how many Rs are gonna lose in Cal, NY and IL, Es van lose up to 6 alone in Cali

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1470420377750982661

Only difference is that Dems won't gain in the senate, despite a favorable map.

I get what Harry is trying to say, but why are we trying to act like Biden's current -8 average rating is the same as Trump's -19 at the same time in 2017? The press is really going apoplectic about Biden's numbers acting if there just as bad as Trumps.