Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[wbrocks67]

Great - another Q-Pac poll to continue with Rasmussen and Trafalgar to drive down the average with outliers.

Also, an indictment of the polling industry that we've gotten 2 Q-pac polls in the matter of time we've gotten 0 polls from many other national outlets.

The only thing I can say is that Donald Trump and Joe Biden do not have the same favorability as each other. That's not even being a hack, it's just not reality.

Not to mention, Biden having a -30 fav with Indies, but Trump being -11? Sure jan.

[wbrocks67]

We are going to get a good indication in 2 weeks from NJ and VA if the Dems as a party will suffer from his declining approval or if the non-change in the generic ballot even as his approval has fallen considerably is real. None of the pollsters seem to know wtf is happening either so it's best to wait for real numbers.

This. An adjusted California exit poll showed Biden's approval was not as bad as national polling was making it seem, so VA and NJ will give a clearer picture.

[wbrocks67]

The Siena poll is not really accurately described - they're saying his approval is 40/58 but that's including "fair" in disapprove, which isn't really a fair descriptor. I'm not sure why Siena just doesn't ask approve or disapprove, but they do "excellent, good, fair, poor". It's possible that a good chunk may say "fair" but still "somewhat approve" if that was an option, b/c no way is Biden actually anywhere close to 40/58 in New York of all places.

Meanwhile, RE: the exit poll - the last time they were adjusted it pointed to a Newsom +20 win, so they are at least 4% less D than they should be.

[wbrocks67]

Of course Biden isn't helped by the fact that the ever-moronic media acted as though Utopia had arrived when Trump lost. Utopia will never arrive under any presidency. Obama had this problem to a somewhat lesser extent.

Yep, the line has been essentially, "Joe Biden, you campaigned on making everything perfect and fixing every single thing. Why isn't that done in 9 months???"

[wbrocks67]

If anything, it certainly appears that the 1-2 punch of congressional gridlock and the economic situation are hurting Biden. Really can't catch a break, even as COVID subsides again and Afghanistan is fully gone from the news. Makes it even more imperative that Dems pass these bills ASAP, bc I'm sure a good chunk of this is basically "Biden is getting nothing done right now", at least from Dems and/or Indies.

More proof though that Dem-leaning voters are more willing to say they disapprove. This is another poll that has Biden's approval with <35 age voters underwater. Again, this group isn't going to vote Republican, but they certainly are more than willing to voice their displeasure at the same time. These types of things should be noted when talking about approval, which is different than Trump, where his core base of voters always stuck with him no matter what in approval polls.

[wbrocks67]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Oct. 16-19, 1500 adults including 1268 RV


Adults:

Approve 44 (+4)
Disapprove 46 (-4)

Strongly approve 18 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 36 (-2)


RV:

Approve 45 (+3)
Disapprove 48 (-3)

Strongly approve 20 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-2)

GCB (RV only): D 42 (-3), R 37 (nc)

insert Oprah so what is the truth GIF lmao.

Funny how the GCB dropped when the approval did a total 180 (though 21% other is just... useless lol)

[wbrocks67]

https://scri.siena.edu/2021/10/19/in-a-fall-preview-of-junes-primary-democrats-give-hochul-early-double-digit-lead-in-3-potential-candidate-scenarios/

President Joe Biden has a 51-44 percent favorability rating, down from 57-37 percent last month and 63-34 percent in June. His job performance rating is 40-58 percent, down from last month’s 46-52 percent and June’s 52-46 percent.

(A)-rated Siena College Poll was conducted October 10-14, 2021 among 801 New York State registered voters.

NY (Gov Race)

Favs, RV:
51 (-6 since September)
44 (+7)

Approvals, RV:
40 (-6)
58 (+6)

In New York? I find that very hard to believe.

We talked about this a bit on the last page - for some reason, Siena doesn't do straight approval - they do "Excellent, Good, Fair, Poor" and count "Fair" in the "Disapprove" category, which is just a bad polling decision.

[wbrocks67]

Monmouth has Biden approval at 43/52 in Virginia, down from 46/49 on September 27th.

I guess we'll find out if we live in the Fox News/Morning Consult Virginia reality (about even approval), or this one.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_va_102021/

[wbrocks67]

Sorry for triple post, but with CA's updated exit poll, it appears the 538 tracker, despite some of its issues, is actually probably on point with reality.

CA exit poll (revised) had Biden +23 approval, a -6 pt downgrade from his 2020 margin.

On Election Day in CA in September, 538 aggregate had Biden's approval sitting at -2, which would also be a -6 downgrade from 2020 (Biden +4 nationally)

So if we assume the tracker is about right now, with Biden -6.5 nationally, that would place Biden at about dead even in Virginia, given the VA was 6% to the left in 2020.

Which lines up with Fox News and Morning Consult's recent polling.

[wbrocks67]

Sorry for triple post, but with CA's updated exit poll, it appears the 538 tracker, despite some of its issues, is actually probably on point with reality.

CA exit poll (revised) had Biden +23 approval, a -6 pt downgrade from his 2020 margin.

On Election Day in CA in September, 538 aggregate had Biden's approval sitting at -2, which would also be a -6 downgrade from 2020 (Biden +4 nationally)

So if we assume the tracker is about right now, with Biden -6.5 nationally, that would place Biden at about dead even in Virginia, given the VA was 6% to the left in 2020.

Which lines up with Fox News and Morning Consult's recent polling.

Dems will win in VA but the even worse than 2016-20 WWC numbers are a horrible sign for 2022 in the midwest. I do not get why Biden is being so friendly to the progressives, they are toxic for the median voter.

Eh, I usually side with the moderates but IMO the progressives have been very reasonable this go around. The "moderates" are the ones who have hamstrung most of this.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1450942093304676359

[wbrocks67]

-4 since last month in Fox News, which has been left-leaning. Yikes!

Actually, this Fox poll was a bit more R-leaning than the last in Identification.

[wbrocks67]

(A)-rated Fox News confirms the trend.
https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2021/10/Fox_October-16-19_National_Topline_October-20-Release.pdf

OCT 16-19, 2021
1,003   RV   

46 (-4 since Sep)
53 (+4)

Strongly:
21 (-4)
39 (+3)

Favs:
45 (-6 since Aug)
55 (+7)


Covid - 51/46
National Security - 44/53
Uniting the country - 41/56
Taxes - 40/56
Foreign policy - 40/57
Economy - 39/59
Border Security - 35/61
Immigration 34/62

The trend is real, but should also be noted that this poll is more R-leaning than their last poll, and had a literal 10% drop in who identified as 'strong democrat'.

[wbrocks67]

Kinda surprised they only had him up +3 in July, that was still close to honeymoon territory (~+10 average on 538)

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1451173682915725313

[wbrocks67]

All-time low from (B+)-rated CNBC.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/21/bidens-support-fading-fast-as-cnbc-survey-finds-concerns-on-the-economy-covid-and-inflation.html

OCT 14-17, 2021
800 A


41 (-7 vs Aug)
52 (+7)

I already posted the poll above and it was from July, not August

[wbrocks67]

Biden needs to make his presence known and do something for the people. I'm sure there are some executive orders he could sign, why is he not taking advantage of that power like Trump and Obama?

I'm surprised he hasn't done a primetime address.

[wbrocks67]

ARG economic survey (monthly), Oct. 17-20, 1100 adults including 992 RV

Adults:

Approve 47 (-3)
Disapprove 47 (+1)

RV:

Approve 47 (-4)
Disapprove 48 (+2)

FWIW, it's also all-time low for Biden in ARG.

Wow. Is the bottom coming out for Brandon?

Brandon?

Don't ask.  It's a right wing nut job joke referring to Biden.

It's about as clever as "libtard."

I've heard so many right wingers in my circle say this Brandon joke.  The same people routinely use the N word.  Or talk negatively about trans people.  Or judgmentally about gay people.  This is the current Republican Party.

The most insane party is that they're always on the same page because they all watch Fox, and then they hear the narrative, and then they repeat it verbatim. If you listen to them individually, they always have the same exact talking points.

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult global leader tracker
Biden 46/47 (-1)

https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1451537321082245120

Ipsos also appears to be steady at 46/48

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2021-10/2021%20Ipsos%20Tracking%20-%20Core%20Political%20Presidential%20Approval%20Tracker%2010%2021%202021.pdf

[wbrocks67]

(B+)-rated Gallup.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/356504/biden-job-approval-steady-lower-level.aspx
OCT 1-19, 2021
823   All Adults
   
42 (-1)
52 (-1)

Looks like the copium-addicted dems are wrong about Biden’s low approvals being mostly because of disapproval from dems. Biden approval among dems has barely dropped while his independent approval is in the 30’s.

I mean... most of these polls have shown that it's mostly been because of Indie support. I don't think anyone has disputed that.

Should be noted however that there has been fluctuations though - some polls have shown Dem support slipping to 80-85% versus 90-95% that this shows.

[wbrocks67]

I'm sorry, but for Biden to basically be at Trump level approval ratings is just embarrassing. And unlike 45, he doesn't actually have a base of support.

I wonder how this will end up in the near future. It isn't impossible for it to collapse much further, and it is very difficult for me to imagine it rising up again.

He's not. 538 tracker has Biden at -7. Trump was -19 at this same point in 2017.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1452743301380120577

[wbrocks67]

The Maryland RV is slightly higher at 55-41 but yeah, it's still ugly.

The Maryland poll is another good example of what we're seeing - again, a big reason why Biden is falling in a lot of these polls is because Dem constituencies are hitting disapprove. So it's not necessarily a great barometer, since most will still vote D vs. R but it's good at seeing how unhappy they are with nothing getting done.

It's the reason why 18-34 #s are dragging him down. This bloc is always going to vote overwhelmingly for Ds in elections, but they are clearly showcasing their frustration with the Biden admin and not enough getting done in these polls. The MD poll has 18-34 approval in single digits.

While this bloc votes D hugely, Biden needs to make sure there is stuff done for this group. Student Loan Forgiveness of some kind would be a great start, but some of the stuff in the reconciliation bill is also a start.

[wbrocks67]

The Maryland RV is slightly higher at 55-41 but yeah, it's still ugly.

The Maryland poll is another good example of what we're seeing - again, a big reason why Biden is falling in a lot of these polls is because Dem constituencies are hitting disapprove. So it's not necessarily a great barometer, since most will still vote D vs. R but it's good at seeing how unhappy they are with nothing getting done.

It's the reason why 18-34 #s are dragging him down. This bloc is always going to vote overwhelmingly for Ds in elections, but they are clearly showcasing their frustration with the Biden admin and not enough getting done in these polls. The MD poll has 18-34 approval in single digits.

While this bloc votes D hugely, Biden needs to make sure there is stuff done for this group. Student Loan Forgiveness of some kind would be a great start, but some of the stuff in the reconciliation bill is also a start.

Lol, sorry, but throwing money around isn't the solution. You can buy a couple of votes but you'll lead to anger elsewhere. The problems go far, far deeper than that. This is fundamentally an administration that has no understanding of the culture we live in, macroeconomic policy, the conditions of the working class, and the values of anyone not left of center. This administration has absolutely zero view or focus as to what it should be doing; it believes it can just throw money everywhere and hope it fixes everything. 

For example, while student loan debt relief may buy the votes of some people who have student loan debt, it does nothing to fix the inflated prices of college education; in fact, it makes it significantly worse. The problem with college education is 1) they spend far too much on building taj mehal-esque buildings to attract new students, 2) require far too many credits to graduate (it should be 90 instead of 120; why the hell do we need to take general elective classes? that should be for high school), 3) The government student loan program does not properly underwrite the risk and gives blanket, unaccountable checks that people cannot pay back. All three of these problems need to be addressed before you do any widespread student loan debt relief, otherwise you're just constantly putting on band-aids on a hole that is leaking everywhere.

The democratic party needs to become a significantly smarter party. Throwing money around as if it's worth nothing will... make money be worth nothing. As we're seeing with the rampant inflation going on. The Brandon administration has been dumb as sh!t so far.

Well first of all that was just one example I noted. I also think you really overestimate what normal people want to see, acting as if the average person is a lot deeper of a thinker than they are. Lots of things in the reconciliation bill are things the average person can use, like universal pre-K. Just like the child tax credit was a huge boon for parents and families.

Pretty sure this administration does realize the time we're in, but is being stymied by a few of their own party members.

[wbrocks67]

The GBC in conjunction with Biden approvals is interesting here. Although I would expect a majority of undecideds to break R in 2022, it still shows Biden's weakness isn't necessarily a result of a GOP resurgence.

People may underestimate how many Americans are dissatisfied with both parties, be it agenda or lack thereof or their general attitude. So Biden having medicore or poor approvals doesn't automatically benefit the GOP, and vise versa. Trump still did better than approvals suggested, especially his approvals in 2017 and 2018. I see this pattern as a symptom of a failed party system since 2 parties are simply not enough to depict the political spectrum in this country.

I think the GCB stuff also goes to show what we've been talking about in here might be correct - how Biden's approval is sagging because a lot of Dem leaning voters are voicing their disapproval of what's happening - but those voters will still come home to the Ds when given the D vs R option.

Again, Trump's base of white, non college educated voters stuck with him no matter what. They hit that 'approve' button even in his worst days. Biden's core constituencies are not just going to say 'approve' if they don't. That's where the two differ, and why the two's approvals can't necessarily be compared in the same way.

Democrats are always willing to voice their disdain for their own party quicker than Republicans.

[wbrocks67]

Biden underwater by 6 points (43 disapprove, 49 approve)... in NEW JERSEY!

https://newjerseyglobe.com/polling/biden-approval-underwater-in-new-jersey-43-49/

Until we see actual things get done in Washington, this is all unsurprising.

Though we're at a point again where (most) national polls are showing a different picture than state polls are.