2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[wbrocks67]

New Jersey has gone the way of CO, late ballots have trended D and moved it back up again. Was down to D+15.5, now up to Biden +16.1.

Wonder if the same thing will happen in CA with late arriving/processed ballots.

[wbrocks67]

Meanwhile, New York still moving at a glacier past, and only still Biden +14.9...

[wbrocks67]

Any other PA folks, here? I'm confused as to whether these ballots were already counted in the current Philly total or not. I saw they certified yesterday so that's what made confused (this ruling came out *after* they certified...)

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1331055635711086594

[wbrocks67]

Not sure if this was pointed out yet, but Biden flipped Clinton, Rockland, and Essex counties in NY, according to the DDH. Essex was a Trump county in 2016.

Based on what we've seen so far, what are we looking like for a final margin in NY? Will Biden cross 60%/break Hillary's +22.5?

[wbrocks67]

Woah. Massachusetts being 66-32 is something. We knew it was blue but that is BLUE

[wbrocks67]

Wolf’s Certificate of Ascertainment for PA contains fewer votes than Cook’s Vote Tracker ...

Yeah, cert has Biden at 3.458, while Cook has Biden at 3.459

[wbrocks67]

Woah. Massachusetts being 66-32 is something. We knew it was blue but that is BLUE

Maryland is going to be 65+ Dem too.. unreal.

Was this particular anti-Trump sentiment or was Biden just a good fit, or are both MA/MD just on a continued blueward trend?

[wbrocks67]

Probably due to rounding, but Biden is offically at a 4% lead on the Cook Popular Vote tracker.

Biden - 51.1%

Trump - 47.1%

In 2024 I'll remember to cut the national poll lead %. The avg was 8-10% going into election day and we're going to be less then half that.

The final 538 average was Biden +8.4, and he's probably going to wind up at about +4.5 or so when everything is counted.  This would be a miss of 3.9%, or about twice what it was in 2016.

Are there enough absentees left in NY to get Biden another 0.5%?

I would think so, his lead is only +15.6, and he should at least be able to top Clinton (+22.5)

[wbrocks67]

So right now we are at

Biden 80.26 million (51.1%)
Trump 73.97 million (47.1%)

How much is still realistically out? NYC is still completely out in terms of mail ballots, so that is adding at least another ~750K right?

Are any other states still adding anything? It feels like CA still has a tiny bit out, while IL is right around 0% movement since 2016, which doesn't feel right - are they done counting too?

The NYC dump should go like 80-20 to Biden, right? Feels like he should be able to top 81 million with that batch.

[wbrocks67]

NY seems unlikely to only be at 22.4%, exactly what the 2016 result was, considering the major swings upstate. Did NYC really swing *that* much rightwards to cancel that out?

If so, was this just another thing seen in all cities across the U.S.? have to imagine it had majorly to do with A) no canvassing by Dems and B) colleges being out

[wbrocks67]

NY seems unlikely to only be at 22.4%, exactly what the 2016 result was, considering the major swings upstate. Did NYC really swing *that* much rightwards to cancel that out?

If so, was this just another thing seen in all cities across the U.S.? have to imagine it had majorly to do with A) no canvassing by Dems and B) colleges being out

NYC has ethnic groups which swung modestly to Trump—Orthodox and Hasidic Jews, Puerto Ricans, POC immigrants from formerly Communist countries—and we know a lot of affluent college-educated voters have fled the city because of COVID.

I will never understand how Cubans in Hoboken and Dominicans in the Bronx can feel this was the year to be concerned about the dangers of socialism coming from the White House.

Yes, I find that argument for the Hispanic swings in urban areas outside of South FL dubious.

I have a sneaking suspicion the Hudson County swing wasn’t mostly due to Cuban Americans in Hoboken. I also don’t think whatever Dominican R swing happened in the Bronx was mostly due to “muh socialism”.

Cuban-Americans in NJ aren't nearly as concerned about socialism as the Cubans in Florida. In fact, New Jersey Cubans heavily lean towards the Democrats.

Also, I'll wait until the absentee results come in for the Bronx. Also, most Dominicans in the Bronx definitely don't care about "socialism" lol.

That's what he is saying. He is then asking why did these groups still swing R?

Incumbency and targeted misinformation are the only two things that make sense imo. No other reason for them to vote Trump when they voted Dem in 2016/18

[wbrocks67]

Not all Hispanic swings can be explained by 'socialism scary', the simple fact is that the racial divide is shrinking and the class divide is growing. It is simply a swing among poorer minorities towards Republicans, not anything to do with fear of socialism.

Which, much like poor WWC voting for Republicans, is so interesting to me given the fact that it's totally voting against your own interests, and Republicans are the last people who are going to help them.

[wbrocks67]

Are we expecting the full NYC vote today then?

[wbrocks67]

Does anyone have the NPV to two decimal points now?  The NYT is only to one.  It's obvious that Pennsylvania and New Jersey have now trended Republican.  Alabama, North Carolina, and even North Dakota may now be R-trending as well, but I'll need two decimal points to confirm those.

Biden: 51.28%
Trump: 46.89%

Trump failed to increase his popular vote share by even a full single percentage Point.

I'm not sure why that makes me happy, but it does.

It does, because it's truly horrific #s for an incumbent.

[wbrocks67]

It also seems pretty clear that incumbency certainly helped Trump with Latinos. Just look at the Bronx for Obama and Bush. They both increased their margins running for their 2nd terms as well.

[wbrocks67]

Really confused here - the PA SOS website is saying that the official totals " do not include any votes from mail ballots received between 8 p.m. on election day and 5 p.m. the following Friday."

Which i don't understand b/c they were legal votes and all of the court battles against not counting them lost...

It comes up at the top of the SOS site when you go there - https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/

[wbrocks67]

'Borrowed' a VPN.  Got the Connecticut and Nevada official results.  Pennsylvania is a hybrid of saying the results are certified along with saying the results are 'unofficial' because they don't include the ballots received after election day.  

I had thought that the Idaho website was redirecting me, but, in fact, their website is still saying 'unofficial results' as is California.

I figured out Washington State, the results on their website are official and certified. 

This still leaves the following states without official or certified results on their website:
1.California
2.Colorado (due to the Covid outbreak)
3.Idaho
4.Minnesota
5.Missouri
6.New Jersey
7.New York (bunch of jerks)
8.Pennsylvania

Yeah this is really confusing me. Those votes were supposed to count, and voters had expected them to count too. All court challenges to them failed. So I don't understand why they are not in the final totals.

[wbrocks67]

What was the case of Maryland specifically? Obviously it's super blue and Biden did well in the entire Northeast, but he should really be commended for that performance there.

[wbrocks67]

I actually think Biden exceeded expectations in a lot of states:

Colorado (+14), Minnesota (+7), New Hampshire (+7), Maine (+9), New Mexico (+11), Vermont (+35), Massachusetts (+34), Connecticut (+20), Maryland (+33), Georgia (+.3)

Alaska (-10), Louisiana (-18)

The main ones where he missed just happened to be heavily skewed toward battlegrounds:

Pennsylvania (+1), Wisconsin (+.5), Michigan (+3), Virginia (+10), Nevada (+2)

Florida (-3), Ohio (-8), Iowa (-8), Texas (-5), Montana (-16)

All things considered, I wouldn't even consider Michigan and Virginia 'misses'. They were both good results, especially compared to 2016, but our expectations based on polls were just a bit higher.

[wbrocks67]

Is there word on NYs total? Wasn't there discrepancies between county totals and the certified total?

[wbrocks67]

Everyone was ready for the red mirage, but it seems most everyone fell for it in the end anyway.

I don't think people necessarily fell for it, but the question was at how much Biden had to make up. We knew he would start in a hole in places like MI/WI/PA, but the question became, after seeing other states and their totals, if the remaining votes would be enough to push him over the edge for the wins in each one.