2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[wbrocks67]

Update: Biden has crossed 51% of the NPV, Trump at 47.3%. He's on track having a larger PV win than Obama '12.

NYS has still 84% counted. That's pathetic. What are they doing?

It doesn't appear that NYC has counted anything either. The topline state #s at Cook/DDHQ/ etc have barely moved.

Likewise, still waiting for OH to start counting any of its additional mail in votes.

Some counties in NYS will only start counting absentee ballots today and the military ballots deadline was today. The majority started counting them during last week. Counting could last this week and the next one, probably.

https://eu.democratandchronicle.com/story/news/politics/albany/2020/11/10/new-york-absentee-counting-why-taking-so-long/6232803002/

Yeah, this is completely unacceptable. There's no reason states like FL, TX, NC can get everything counted so quickly and states like NY are taking *weeks*

[wbrocks67]

Interesting, so we should be getting 10K late arriving mail ins at some point (the ones that were allowed to be received up to 3 days after 11/3) I wonder when they'll add them to the totals.

[wbrocks67]

Alaska is about to fall into single digits

Trump 52.89%
Biden 42.74%

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1328414218354356224

[wbrocks67]

Biden hits 50% in the AP total for PA. You love to see it.

Joe Biden: 3,431,728 (50%)
Donald Trump: 3,359,349 (48.9%)
Jo Jorgensen: 78,912 (1.1%)

Lead: +72,379

[wbrocks67]

A few more votes in PA.

Joe Biden 3,434,458
Donald Trump 3,361,131

Biden lead: +73,327

The PA DOS website has stopped updating, but based on their initial "mail ballots returned" and the PA website's count of mail ballots counted, it appears there's still a bit out... Allegheny looks to still have ~7K mail-ins and 3/4K provisionals. Philly still has at least 7-8K provisionals if not more (never got an official count other than "at least" 18K), with about ~4K mail-ins still to count.

Put it this way: the state said they had ~94K provisionals. About 75K have been counted, so nearly 20K left of those out in the state. Which makes me think there's more than 7-8k left in Philly. Though some places like Lehigh have still not counted any.

[wbrocks67]

NY is a hot mess. Will be interesting to see how much NY, when it's done counting in 2025, raises Biden's margins. The absentees counted so far have gone overwhelmingly to him, and upstate NY looks to be continuing the Northeast leftward trend.

[wbrocks67]

Biden crosses 79 million, and his lead crosses 5.7 million/3.7%.

Joe Biden 79,045,518 (50.9%)
Donald Trump 73,332,310 (47.2%)

Biden lead: +5,713,208 (3.7%)

Biden will cross 51% at this point, while high likelihood Trump falls below 47% in the end

[wbrocks67]

Yep, looks like the rest of mail ins dropped from Philly with possibly some provisionals? It's possible they had many more mail ins that the DOS website had said they did. Biden's lead officially crosses the actual 50.00% mark in PA!

Joe Biden 3,445,548 (50.02%)
Donald Trump 3,363,951 (48.83%)
Jo Jorgensen 79,046  (1.15%)

Biden lead: +81,597 (1.19%)

This also brings up Bidens lead in Philly to +471K, which is nearly what Hillary's +475K was.

[wbrocks67]

More ballots also counted in Mississippi. Current tally:

58.1% Trump
40.5% Biden

Wednesday we may get, probably, results from Ohio. At least it's what is schedule as counties have until 2PM November 18 to complete their official canvass.

Is there more ballots left to count in MS?

[wbrocks67]

Is there still a chance Biden cracks 60% in Allegheny?

Maybe a tiny bit, but depends on how much is out. Apparently there may be about ~5K mail-ins and ~5K provisionals, but unsure b/c they stopped updating DOS page of what's left and Allegheny hasn't updated anything in a few days... so not sure if they're waiting for one final dump like Philly did last night or if they're mostly done.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like NJ pulled a CO and stopped its slide to the right, and late counted ballots are trending more D. It was down to D+15.5, now back up to D+15.8.

[wbrocks67]

Sorry for triple post, but Biden officially crosses 51.0% on the Cook tracker.

Joe Biden 79,251,116 (51.0%)
Donald Trump 73,437,806 (47.2%)

Biden lead: +5,813,310 (3.8%)

[wbrocks67]

NY absentee update:

Biden 220638 (74.2%)
Trump 71209 (23.9%)
Total 297539
Margin of 50.2%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +.1%, so average swing of 50.3%.

Excluding Monroe and Nassau:

Biden 74865 (72.1%)
Trump 26782 (25.8%)
Total 103828
Margin of 46.3%, averaged weighted final eday margin of Trump+10%, so average swing of 56.3%.

Seems like Biden on track to top Hillary's +22.5 margin statewide?

[wbrocks67]

So we should theoretically have final Ohio results by 2pm today?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1329078299700588545

are they any different than what we've had for over a week?

[wbrocks67]

The fact that they are wasting $$ on this knowing full well deep in their hearts it's not gonna change anything is just so disturbing.

[wbrocks67]

what's wrong with Hardin county, IL? There has been no results since election night!

Politico has those results:

Trump 78.2%
Biden 20.8%

There's a few new results from Ohio:

Trump +45,352
Biden +52,899

link please...

I'm following the Politico Ohio results page. I just subtracted the previous results, frozen since election night, with the new ones.

https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/ohio/

alright! apparently the newly counted ballots from Hamilton and Franklin were more democratic while in Cuyahoga it was more republican.

Yes, but in Ohio the absentee ballots aren't breaking heavily from Biden. Statewide, so far, is almost 54-46% in favour of Biden and the margin between Trump and Biden only shrunk by 3,955 votes.

aren't all of these mail ballots? how could the ones out of Cuyahoga possibly be R?

[wbrocks67]

Anyone else noticing that Biden has gradually built a near 100k lead in PA?

He now leads by 1.2%

Yep, latest count is +82,230. Though it probably won't grow a *ton* more - maybe 85K-ish? Philly is done and I think Allegheny is either done or nearly complete. They threw a couple more mail ins today I think that were a bit more R leaning than before.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like final certified count in Michigan didn't change much, as expected, Biden still at +2.7.

Joe Biden 2,797,407 (50.57%)
Donald Trump 2,650,498 (47.91%)

[wbrocks67]

Looks like final certified count in Michigan didn't change much, as expected, Biden still at +2.7.

Joe Biden 2,797,407 (50.57%)
Donald Trump 2,650,498 (47.91%)

According to the Cook popular vote tally, Biden picked up 9,492 votes and Trump 772:

Joe Biden 2,806,899 (50.64%)
Donald Trump 2,651,270 (47.84%)

Oh nice, so DDHQ is outdated. Biden +2.8 then!

[wbrocks67]

So far, of the ballots dumped today from Ohio, Trump is now slightly leading Biden:

Trump +69,401
Biden +68,921

The margin on election night was 470,737, and now it's 471,217

So these are late mail in ballots and provisional? Surprising, but I guess it makes sense.

Yep, that's right.

I'm surprised the late mail-ins are skewing that GOP.

[wbrocks67]

Biden has flipped Broome and Rensselaer counties in New York.

2016?

[wbrocks67]

Few more ballots here & there in PA, remains pretty static

Joe Biden 3,454,686 (50.02%)
Donald Trump 3,372,329 (48.83%)
Jo Jorgensen 79,299 (1.15%)

Biden lead: +82,357

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/drewharwell/status/1329439591892475905
Remind me again why Hillary was wrong for saying half of Trump supporters are awful?

She was not.  Around 50% of Trump supporters are literal criminals yet it's inappropriate to discuss this fact.  Instead we must allow them to engage in their criminality in plain view. 

If Democrats don't hold them accountable when Biden is in office I am going to vote straight Republican in the midterms and tell my elected officials that I'm doing it in protest of their inaction.

"The Republican Party is full of criminals, so if you don't prosecute them, I'll vote for them instead." What kind of logic is that? Why not vote for the Libertarian candidates instead?

Non Swing Voter's posts, from what I've seen, seem to be routinely hyperbolic in their tone and language, and almost seem to be the perfect caricature of the "elitist" suburbanite who is so despised by the Republican base. As I've stated elsewhere, many of those who voted for Trump are indeed morally detestable, but the same can be said for many Biden voters, and such overgeneralizations don't work to the benefit of anyone.

Oh please don't #bothsides this. We are experiencing a vast amount of republican officials engaging in an outright attempt to steal an election.

I'm aware of what we're seeing, but it astonishes me how so many on here already seem to be forgetting the lessons which this election's results should have taught us.

.... that voters are clearly, for whatever reason, more willing to overlook Republicans flaws than Democrats?

[wbrocks67]

Biden is *thisclose* from topping 6 million on the Cook tracker.