2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[wbrocks67]

Is Biden still on track for a 100K win in PA?

I'd guess 70 to 75 thousand.  I don't think that outside of remade ballots, there are anything other than provisionals out there.

As of noon today, there were still 51k mail-ins to count in PA. And those don't count provisionals. Not sure if they even include overseas/military

https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx

I'm skeptical of the real time accuracy of that.  It's been in that range for two or three days now.  And about 20k of provisionals have been counted-- though mostly in R areas. 

Not really, it was ~60K a day or two ago I believe, so makes sense it has gone down with ~10K mail ins counted in Philly/Allegheny

If only 20K provisionals have been counted though, we still have a long way. ~94K were used on Election Day.

Some counties are confusing though. Montco has ~4K mail-ins to be counted, and it's been at 4K since Thursday or Friday I think. Maybe they *are* provisionals and thats why they haven't been counted? I have no idea. It does appear though that the 17K in Allegheny and 18-25k in Philly have *not* been counted yet though, since I believe they were waiting to finish all mail-ins before getting to them.

[wbrocks67]

A few more votes out of Allegheny now have Biden at 52K lead in PA per Fox News.

NYT is a few votes behind, but they have Trump dropping below 49%, now at 48.99%. Would love for Biden to still crack 50.

Also given the fact that the 10K received after Election Day won't have a real effect, I expect them to be ultimately counted in the end as well.

[wbrocks67]

Does NV still have a pretty big chunk out of Clark? Have they just stopped counting?

[wbrocks67]

If Maricopa is a wash tonight, they need to call it. However, it appears after tonight there is only one more Maricopa update, so if not a call by tonight, then tomorrow night.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326665741433647104

The estimated ballots left website just updated with the numbers from Pima and Yavapai.  I'll post an update in a couple minutes.

87% turnout in these rural counties and Trump still couldn’t win.  The GOP is in trouble.

Yep... this should not get lost in all of this. Trump brought out insane GOP turnout and he... still lost to Biden by 5-7 million votes. The GOP can't rely on that record turnout again, since (unfortunately) it seems all Trump.

Which is why we're seeing house results the way they are. All of those Trump voters that he brought out probably voted straight ticket. While it's possible that many of the low propensity new voters that Biden turned out voted for him, but R downballot... which overcame all of the 2018 voters who came back out

[wbrocks67]

Biden is probably going to fall below Clinton's 2016 margin in CA at this point. 

People need to stop predicting counts like this out of CA, etc. We don't know what's left. Again, it's possible he does. But it's also possible that late-arriving ballots skew Dem, and bring his margin back up, like in CO for example.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like 113K new votes in IL, 86K went to Biden and 27K for Trump.

Biden now +16.1%

It appears OH and MS are taking as long as humanly possible to count their mail in ballots

[wbrocks67]

So when do we expect the networks to call Arizona? After tonights Maricopa dump? Isn't it mostly Pima left?

[wbrocks67]

Fairfax is only at 92% counted? It looks like Joe's lead could creep up to +10.5 in VA.

It appears areas where the Democratic electorate was even more turbocharged than Republicans (CO, VA, GA, etc.) is where polls performed best.

[wbrocks67]

Something that should be noted about PA, too, that likely helped Dems take the statewide races in 2016, was the straight ticket option. After 2016, that was taken away, which explains (a portion) of the underperformance of some candidates, especially given the Lib/GRN parties getting more votes, quite a bit, in some of the statewide races.

[wbrocks67]

Also, there have been roughly ~20K provisionals reported statewide in PA so far. However, they look to all be coming from red counties, as Philly/SEPA/Allegheny/Erie/Lackawnna/Monroe/Lehigh etc are all reporting 0 right now. So it's quite possible that that ~94K number was accurate, and we still have 50-75K more provisionals coming in PA, aside from the ~45K mail ins that have yet to be counted.

Also, that ~45K number does not include overseas or military as far as i know, since counties could receive them up until yesterday I believe.

[wbrocks67]

Also, there have been roughly ~20K provisionals reported statewide in PA so far. However, they look to all be coming from red counties, as Philly/SEPA/Allegheny/Erie/Lackawnna/Monroe/Lehigh etc are all reporting 0 right now. So it's quite possible that that ~94K number was accurate, and we still have 50-75K more provisionals coming in PA, aside from the ~45K mail ins that have yet to be counted.

Also, that ~45K number does not include overseas or military as far as i know, since counties could receive them up until yesterday I believe.

94k provisionals and only from 20k from Philly/SEPA/Allegheny/Erie/Lackawanna/Monroe/Lehigh?

That just doesn't seem likely at all. Over 50% of the total state vote has come from those counties (~3.5m)

I'm sorry if I was not clear - I meant there are 20K in right now and they are NOT from those areas. i.e, the remaining 75K (if they are all counted) come from those areas - Allegheny/Erie/SEPA/Philly/Lackawanna etc

[wbrocks67]

It would also help if counties were more transparent with the remaining votes.

Montgomery County has a sizeable batch of mail-ins left (about 4,000) but those have been sitting at the same # since they finished counting at the end of last week. No idea if these are regular mail-ins that needed to be cured or not, or also include provisionals. They do not include Overseas/Military, however.

[wbrocks67]

Biden's lead grows to 5.3 million. This is still without nearly 2 million New York absentees out (and many others)

Joe Biden 77,739,744 (50.8%)
Donald Trump 72,448,094 (47.4%)

[wbrocks67]

What will the final margin be for popular vote in percentage and total votes

It still looks like there is a decent chunk of D votes out in MD and OH, and NY too. CA looks to be about the same margin for the rest of the votes. IL also appears to have a decent chunk out too, so Biden should seemingly cross 7 million+ PV lead I think, while maybe getting 51.5-52.0% of the overall vote?

New York alone should probably net him at least nearly a million votes I think, if they break like 1.3mil-400k. And that may be conservative.

[wbrocks67]

What will the final margin be for popular vote in percentage and total votes

51.6%
46.6%
  1.8% Others/Write-in

Turnout: 160 million

Biden’s final margin could be around 8 million votes and he’ll end up well over 80 million.

Interesting that Biden will likely end up close to the middle of Obama 2012 (3.9%) and Obama 2008 (7.2%)

[wbrocks67]

So Biden is easily breaking 80,000,000 votes at this point, right?  Just incredible.  Hopefully Trump stays below 75,000,000.

This is what keeps me sane - while Trump ultimately got way more votes than 2016 too, the fact that with record breaking turnout, Biden will still ultimately be about 7-8 million and ~5% ahead of Trump, an incumbent, which is hard to do - means this really was a repudiation of Trumpism any way you slice it.

[wbrocks67]

So Biden is easily breaking 80,000,000 votes at this point, right?  Just incredible.  Hopefully Trump stays below 75,000,000.

This is what keeps me sane - while Trump ultimately got way more votes than 2016 too, the fact that with record breaking turnout, Biden will still ultimately be about 7-8 million and ~5% ahead of Trump, an incumbent, which is hard to do - means this really was a repudiation of Trumpism any way you slice it.

What keeps me hopeful is the idea that the Dem gains are more permanent than the Rep gains.  We dramatically expanded our outreach this year with registration, fundraising and volunteerism.  That feels more permanent than Trump's magical ability to get Facebook voters to the polls.  We already saw in 2018 that those people don't show up when Trump isn't on the ballot.  If Trump and the GOP have a schism, they won't turn up in 2022 either, while the Dems can maintain the organizational edge they built this cycle.

Not to mention, I do truly wonder if the lack of on the ground organization (in terms of door knocking, etc.) DID hurt us this year. So it's possible that we may have been done better down ballot (and even up ballot) if our registration drives and door knocking didn't get paused for months, while the GOP kept going. This obviously won't be a problem in 22/24 without a pandemic too.

[wbrocks67]

When will we know the first results from the mail ballots in NY? I know they are slow to count.

also - are they going to release them in painstaking batches or in like huge dumps?

[wbrocks67]

It appears that OH and MS have also just given up on counting their mail in ballots....

[wbrocks67]

It appears that OH and MS have also just given up on counting their mail in ballots....

It seems that Ohio accepts ballots until tomorrow, November 13th, maybe by then more votes will start to be announced. In Mississippi, the deadline for absentee ballots was last Tuesday, so they may be counting them.

Interesting. If Ohio is accepting mail in ballots until tomorrow, it's quite possibly we see a decent sized blue shift there in the end (compared to where it is now)

[wbrocks67]

More vote out of Allegheny, Biden's lead 54K now statewide.

Joe Biden 3,390,729
Donald Trump 3,336,751

About ~8K provisionals out of Allegheny broke 55-45 for Biden. ~4K provisionals from Delaware Co broke 63-36.

[wbrocks67]

More vote out of Allegheny, Biden's lead 54K now statewide.

Joe Biden 3,390,729
Donald Trump 3,336,751

About ~8K provisionals out of Allegheny broke 55-45 for Biden. ~4K provisionals from Delaware Co broke 63-36.

That's quite high for Trump, isn't it?

It may have been from the less D part of the county.  They still have another batch to process plus disputed ones.  Outside of the Philly area though, there won't be a treasure trove of D votes.

That's not true. Most of the provisionals still out are from Allegheny and SEPA/East PA. And there's still nearly 45K mail ballots left to count in the state as well, nearly 10K of which are in Philly, and I believe still 5-7K in Allegheny.

[wbrocks67]

Do we know how many votes are out in NV and when they are expected to keep counting?

[wbrocks67]

I don't think that ruling involves late ballots. I think it involves ballots cured after election day.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pennsylvania-court-secretary-of-state-changed-deadline.amp?__twitter_impression=true

Sorry about the Fox News link.

Edit: So ballots cured by the 9th are fine but nothing after that?

Yes. This does NOT count the regular 10K ballots received after election day. This is about ballots that needed to be cured. But it appears that they are fine up to the 9th (6 days after), but NOT the 9 days after that was later determined.